i don’t want to see their faces; i don’t want to hear them scream

November 5, 2009 at 12:00 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 Comment
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At this point, I don’t want to think about baseball until the Red Sox acquire a non-Bay outfielder and some infield help, and along with avoiding ESPN and MLB Network, I really need to conclude my prediction review. While a lot of specifics are glaringly incorrect, my results actually aren’t that bad overall; compared to this list, I’m about as accurate (10.38) as ESPN’s Keith Law, so… at least I’m better than PECOTA.

AL East

Red Sox (ranked #1 in pre-season hierarchy): It makes sense that my favorite, most-watched team would be one of my most accurate predictions, and by calling 96 wins for the Red Sox, I overrated them by just one win. Their low-risk, high-reward plans didn’t really work out: SP Brad Penny was mediocre, John Smoltz was cut too fast when too many bloop hits dropped in, and OF Rocco Baldelli didn’t play enough to have a major impact (and had trouble getting on base when he was healthy). Even trade acquisition Ramon Ramirez turned into a disappointment, with declining strikeouts leading to a very poor 5.17 xFIP. How, then, did they basically live up to my prediction? Contrary to my expectations, DH David Ortiz rebounded to a solid season, RF J.D. Drew stayed healthy and was an asset in the field as well as at the plate, the team got some fluke offensive value from SSs Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez, young arms pitched in, and key trades paid off. Still, seeing the little things go right is little consolation after the potential high rewards never came, leaving the team with just enough to get into the postseason and then leave with a whimper.
Orioles (13): I gave the Orioles the benefit of the doubt when I put them two wins over my prediction floor, at 72-90. Instead, their pitchers were almost as bad as I expected (though Koji Uehara worked out better than expected) and a sub-par offense took them from a predicted “bad” to an abysmally terrible 2009. I predicted bullpen issues, but the Orioles ended up a team with nothing going for them but the solid trade return they received for reliever George Sherrill.
Blue Jays (14): This time, I was right about a bullpen being good, and OF/DH Adam Lind and 2B Aaron Hill made the Jays’ offense better than I expected. I noted that “SS Marco Scutaro lacks both power and, at 33, any real upside,” but he ended up leading the team in on-base percentage and slugging over .400. Toronto’s rotation was also stronger than I expected, yet I still overrated them by 3 games, as they fell short of 78 wins (though their Pythagorean record of 84-78 also points to more talent than the results showed).
Rays (27): Boy, this was a relief. James Shields and Matt Garza led a rotation with significant home run issues, Pat Burrell had the worst season of his career, CF B.J. Upton and C Dioner Navarro took big steps back, and as predicted, the older pitchers in the bullpen didn’t exactly step up. The team got surprise contributions from relievers Lance Cormier and Dan Wheeler (who lowered his walks and kept his BABIP below .200 for a second straight season), and unforeseen power outbursts from infielders Ben Zobrist (formerly one of my favorite prospects except for his lack of pop!) and Jason Bartlett, but it wasn’t enough to get them past 84 wins. It’s worth noting that until the last few week of the season, my 88 win prediction looked right on the money, but their slump towards the end wasn’t that shocking for a team having so many down years.
Yankees (30): Even my respectful 95-win prediction didn’t account for this year’s Evil Empire taking the step from good to great, and ending up at 103-59. I didn’t foresee that their young pitchers would struggle or be moved to the bullpen, but I also was dead wrong in expecting SS Derek Jeter to post a down year instead of making an MVP run for a while. To my credit, I spotlighted reliever David Robertson as a potential turning point for the 2009 Yankees, and he was indeed one of the keys to a much stronger bullpen.

AL Central

Indians (2): My hometown team was my biggest mistake in terms of forecast error (I called 88 wins, they managed just 65), but I don’t think anyone foresaw so many pitchers having awful seasons, with career-high home run rates rampant in the bullpen (which I’d picked as one of their greatest strengths!). Making me even more wrong, 1B Ryan Garko ended up being one of the team’s better hitters before being traded.
Tigers (19): The Tigers only beat my .500 projection by five games, but my predictions were marked by two conspicuous claims: “(Brandon) Inge makes for a horrible hitting 3B,” and “(Edwin) Jackson is little more than a #5 starter.” Both instead ended up as All-Stars, though it’s certainly significant that they struggled mightily in the second half as their team came up a win short of the postseason. I was still right from the start that Detroit’s rotation was a problem, as a lot of mediocre pitchers were tried in the final two slots as the season went along.
Twins (24): First up, my mistakes: I underrated the 87-win Minnesota club by three games, as SP Nick Blackburn kept his control and repeated his 2008 success and Joe Mauer had a clear MVP season. I was, however, right to predict Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey would give up more home runs than in the previous season, and most of all correct in citing their situational hitting of 2008 as an unrepeatable bit of luck. That year, they scored 829 runs, with a .279/.340/.408 team line. In 2009, without major personnel changes, they improved at the plate, going .274/.345/.429… and scored 12 fewer runs.
Royals (26): Oh, the folly of forced optimism (even though I gave the team my lowest prediction at 70 wins; they underachieved even this by 5 games); I claimed that their rotation “isn’t that awful.” It
really was; Zack Greinke was fantastic, Brian Bannister respectable, but Gil Meche finally regressed to futility, and the team struggled to find starters all season long. Other than that, I was pretty much right on: 1B Billy Butler was an offensive standout and Joakim Soria a dominant closer, while SS Mike Aviles couldn’t repeat his BABIP-induced “success” of 2008, DH Mike Jacobs failed to get on base while his power declined, and Jose Guillen was paid a team-high $12 million to play like a 4th (or 5th) outfielder. I predicted “no surprises,” and that was basically the bottom line despite pitching that was even worse than I thought and a nice power surge from 2B Alberto Callaspo.
White Sox (29): Yet again, I underestimated the White Sox. This time, however, they only beat my prediction by three games, coming in short of .500 at 79 wins. As usual, I assumed that veterans would be the team’s downfall, but “just about finished” 1B Paul Konerko was the team’s second-best hitter, and C A.J. Pierzynski had his best season since 2006. More things that made Ozzie Guillen smarter than me: 3B Josh Fields was only “solid” if one has ruled out liquid, gas, and plasma, and OF DeWayne Wise’s bat actually merited being benched for players like Scott Podsednik. Some small consolation: Scott Linebrink continued to be a dreadful reliever with too large a contract, and SS Alexei Ramirez had the decline in power I expected.

AL West

A’s (4): The 75-win A’s underachieved both my predicted 85 wins and their .500 Pythagorean winning percentage, but I fault neither myself nor the team – the team was plagued by injuries both foreseeable (3B Eric Chavez) and less so (SP Justin Duchscherer was hurt in the spring, but didn’t figure to miss the whole season), and what I predicted to be a “well above average” offense turned out to be a bit below average. Still, I was right to suggest the bullpen could be “a solid group” with contributions from Michael Wuertz, as he and Andrew Bailey helped the team absorb a lost season for Joey Devine. Perhaps most presciently, I called the A’s “unlikely to get back as nice a package if they deal” Holliday, and indeed, the shrinking group of prospects when they passed the former Rockie on to St. Louis may have been the team’s biggest non-injury setback this season.
Mariners (6): 2009 was a bit of a mixed bag for Seattle. On the upside: veteran pickups like 1B Russell Branyan and RP David Aardsma worked out nicely, and GM Jack Zduriencik found another nice piece mid-season in OF Ryan Langerhans. The dimmer look: Branyan’s a free agent, and Aardsma and RF Ichiro Suzuki are too old to be the core of a long-term future beside SP Felix Hernandez. Zduriencik made some very iffy trades, and their surprising win total (85 to a predicted 72) masks a negative run differential and 75-87 Pythagorean record.
Rangers (18): Texas beat my prediction of a bad 73-win season with 87 wins, with SS Elvis Andrus vastly surpassing offensive expectations, 3B Michael Young’s bat looking reborn (with the help of a .351 BABIP), and most notably a lot of young pitchers I hadn’t even considered turning into useful pieces for a team that contended into September. Even Andruw Jones brought a little value to the team, and the only thing that went wrong was the failure of the Rangers’ young catchers, eventually leading the team to reacquire Ivan Rodriguez.
Angels (22): The Angels’ 97 wins obliterated my modest 84-78 prediction thanks to a few unforeseen offensive contributions: instead of getting worst, 3B Chone Figgins had his first 100 walk season, and 1B “Kendry Morales, whose major league numbers are quite weak and whose AAA stats are inflated by a great hitting environment at Salt Lake City” hit 34 home runs and was the team’s best hitter. I was right, to a degree, on the rotation’s depth (the starters surrendered too many home runs, but still had a deeper rotation than most teams), but didn’t foresee the numerous injuries and shortcomings that made the Angels’ bullpen a major vulnerability. While I credited the Angels for finally giving the starting job at catcher to Mike Napoli, the team still managed to put offensive non-factor Jeff Mathis into 84 games.

the waiting is the hardest part

October 9, 2009 at 5:17 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 Comment
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I do so hate night games when the early divisional series schedule got me used to day baseball.  I was going to do a pre-offseason rooting hierarchy update, but particularly due to two GM spots (and possibly more to come) up in the air, my fondness for several teams could change quite a bit in the coming months.  Instead, my postseason wrap-up shall look back at my pre-season thoughts on each team, starting with the NL, and loosely sorted by preference.

NL East

Braves (ranked #7 in pre-season hierarchy): I was pretty right on about Atlanta, but wrong about the NL, predicting an 85-win season might get a wild card. They managed 86 wins, but fell short of a postseason appearance thanks largely to a surprisingly strong NL West. The front end of the rotation was strong as predicted, and they actually got more out of their relievers than expected, but as I noted in February, their middling offense just couldn’t carry them far enough.
Marlins (12): Got this one dead wrong. I thought they’d overachieved in 2008 and predicted 76 wins; they instead won 87 (with a run differential indicating a true talent level closer to 82) and made a run at the wild card. They did it while managing to scrape even below the bottom of the barrel in giving 3B Emilio Bonifacio more time than expected offensive void Wes Helms, and without a strong year from Ricky Nolasco; rookie Chris Coghlan carried a lot of the offensive load, but it’s still hard to see how they managed to be so good.
Nationals (8): An idiot, I actually gave the Nationals the benefit of the doubt and predicted 75 wins instead of their actual 59. Sure, the low-return trade of Nick Johnson hurt their ability to contend, but I simply didn’t foresee the awfulness of this club, nor the firing of their biggest bright spot in manager Manny Acta.
Phillies (21): Note to self: don’t diss the defending champions. My tepid 84-win expectations for the Philadelphia club were blown away with a 93-win season, and while Raul Ibanez dropped off quite a bit from MVP candidacy in the second half, he managed to make me (and many other analysts) look like fools for underestimating his value. I did manage to foresee the club’s bullpen problems and predict J.A. Happ’s usefulness (well, I called him “probably the best option” at the back of the rotation).
Mets (23): I apparently bought into the hype (and failed to foresee every player on the forty-man roster having a season-ending injury in by the All-Star break, which is only a slight exaggeration of what happened) and gave the Mets 89 wins. They managed 70. I also overestimated the grotesque train wreck season of Oliver Perez, but at least I did foresee that he would be a problem.

NL Central

Reds (9): I acknowledged at the time that my 80 win prediction was very optimistic, so I’m not at all ashamed that they only won 78. They didn’t have any breakout performances, but as predicted, Chris Dickerson’s power disappeared and Willy Taveras did nothing to help the club. Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes filled the outfield admirably when Jay Bruce got hurt. Contrary to my prediction, however, the team’s starting pitching was pretty mediocre.
Pirates (5): I only gave them 70 wins because I couldn’t justify predicting horrendousness, but I can’t say I’m surprised that they fell 8 games short of that mark. The team’s only real bright spots were rookie outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones, and the biggest thing to which the team can look forward for the immediate future is the development of some of the low-upside prospects that GM Neal Huntington acquired in the team’s mid-season fire sale.
Cardinals (20): Yet another of my missed calls, the Cardinals did a fair deal more than my predicted 80 wins, leading the division at 91-71. Making me even wronger, the pitching turned out to be a strength after I called it out as a glaring weakness; Joel Pineiro turned into a ground ball machine, and Adam Wainwright increased his ground balls and added 2 strikeouts per 9 innings to become a solid #2 starter. As wrong as I was, however, I’m pleased that things turned out well for the Cardinals; the acquisitions of Matt Holliday and a few underrated Red Sox castoffs has broken the Cardinals out of my apathy zone and made them pretty likable.
Cubs (10): The team that I picked as the NL favorite managed just 83 wins, 12 games short of my prediction. In my defense, I did note that they were overrated and could be a disappointment, and predicted the futility of their second basemen and closer Kevin Gregg. As predicted, the pitching was a strength, particularly with the emergency of rookie Randy Wells. Still, this club is due for a huge fall in my rooting hierarchy, after they and their fans basically ran Milton Bradley out of town, caring more about his demeanor than the fact he was a far, far better player than Alfonso Soriano.
Brewers (16): Once again, I overestimated the team, but not as completely as I could have. The Brewers fell short of .500 with 80 wins, 3 fewer than I expected. J.J. Hardy wasn’t the useful player I expected, while Trevor Hoffman proved me wrong by being a dominant closer yet again. On the plus side, Jeff Suppan, Jason Kendall, and Braden Looper were about as futile as they could be (of course, their struggles were hardly creative, out-on-a-limb predictions on my part).
Astros (28): I was too harsh. The Astros weren’t a 70-win club. SP Wandy Rodriguez had a career year at age 30, Michael Bourn reacquainted himself with the world of above-replacement-level baseball, and Jeff Fulchino and LaTroy Hawkins stabilized the bullpen. With all of these positive developments, the Astros made me look far too critical as they upset the Pirates for 5th place in the division at 74-88! I apologize profusely for implying that the Astros were the most phenomenally stupid team in the National League.

NL West

Padres (3): Considering the team spent most of the year without Jake Peavy or Brian Giles, it’s pretty impressive that they managed to beat my prediction by one game, going 75-87 in fourth place. I touted Giles as an offensive asset, but even when healthy, he was far from it; his .191/.277/.271 makes it hard to see him getting a starting gig next year. I was right about the bullpen being a strength, and Henry Blanco and David Eckstein were about as bad as expected. I don’t think I was alone when I wrote off Kevin Correia as a “cheap gambles who could eat some innings,” but he instead turned into a surprising ace. The most intriguing thing about the Padres at this point is their volatility in my rooting rankings as we head towards the offseason – GM Kevin Towers (and his aggressive trading and eye for underrated talent) was a big part of my fondness for this team, and his firing hurts them. But a promotion for Paul DePodesta or hiring an assistant GM from Oakland or Boston would be enough to keep San Diego in my good graces while I cross my fingers and hope Towers doesn’t land in Toronto.
Rockies (17): Clearly, I know very little about baseball. The Rockies blew my 79-win prediction out of the water as they went 92-70, winning the wildcard and putting up a fight against the defending champion Phillies in the NLDS. How did I get it this wrong? It starts with my underestimating Ubaldo Jimenez, and continues through the rotation as Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, and Jorge De La Rosa all exceeded my expectations. I instead touted the strength of the bullpen, but outside of closer Huston Street, their relievers struggled outside of midseason acquisition Rafael Betancourt. Troy Tulowitzki proved me wrong by being an offensive force, while my anticipated Garrett Atkins rebound was instead a slide below replacement level.
Diamondbacks (11): I predicted 86 wins and a trio of aces that would dominate in October. Instead, the Diamondbacks won just 70, Brandon Webb made just one start, and Max Scherzer didn’t have a breakout year. I was dead wrong about the offensive value of Justin Upton and Marc Reynolds, and even with my disappointment in GM Josh Byrnes, managed to grossly overrate a pretty bad (75-87 pythagorean record suggests they weren’t THIS bad) team.
Giants (25): Another underestimation, a club I called .500 managed to win 88 and stay in wildcard contention late into the season. The funny thing is, I was right about the offense’s problems: even with an outstanding campaign from Pablo Sandoval and some trade deadline pickups, they scored just 657 runs – only 17 more than in their 72-90 campaign of 2008. The difference? Allowing almost 150 fewer runs. I lauded their pitching staff, but hadn’t foreseen a strong defense, Matt Cain’s reduced walks, or Brian Wilson’s emergence as a legitimate closer.
Dodgers (15): I’m starting to think I shouldn’t bother predicting anything anymore. The Dodgers were quite a bit better than .500, winning 95 games and looking, to many, like the favorite to win the pennant. Some of my favorite targets for criticism did well (though each were more about their cost than being downright bad players) – Juan Pierre filled in admirably when Manny Ramirez was suspended, Casey Blake isn’t showing his age, and Randy Wolf turned in a healthy, solid season on the mound – while the bullpen pieced together a very good year.

Ironically, despite their success, I’m back to hating the Dodgers for taking the least efficient, advisable path to success and depleting their farm system. And with GM Ned Colletti unlikely to go anywhere after another playoff appearance, it looks like the Dodgers are doomed to emulate the worst Yankee teams, spending on mediocre talent and dealing away too many young players. It’s fitting, I suppose, that it takes a Hollywood team to make me turn off my brain in order to enjoy their ballpark’s beauty.

lawyers agents, guns arms, and money

September 21, 2009 at 7:53 pm | In Baseball | 1 Comment
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Because even satellite radio isn’t immune from slumping musical quality, I find myself tuning into their MLB Home Plate channel more often than I’d like to admit. Like any sort of talk radio, sports talk is dominated by a small handful of voices proven correct only by their volume. XM has a refreshing amount of diversity, I’ll grant, but one topic seems a de facto filler when major league action is in a lull – such as recent weeks, when most playoff races looked anything but close.

The talking heads seem endlessly fascinated and outraged by the money paid to draft picks, which is at least a somewhat valid point of frustration considering the rate at which baseball prospects flop and the lack of immediate impact found in the MLB draft compared to those of the NBA and NFL. To be sure, prospects are far from guaranteed investments, and any smart team would have to do its homework before sinking $15 million into a guy whose experience came primarily in what is hardly a powerhouse of college baseball – the Mountain West Conference.

But it seems many pundits assume that teams don’t take that caution, and simply throw money at college and high school players for the fun of it. Granted, that assumption may not be far off for a few incompetent general managers, but it is no different than how they operate at the Major League level. Top draft pick Steven Strasburg’s contract with the Nationals averages less than $4 million a year (including his signing bonus) through 2012, and if he turns out to be a bust, he’ll still be under team control and awarded fairly affordable salaries upon reaching arbitration. Let’s compare that supposed recklessness to a few other recent contracts that received far more ambivalent reactions.

Oliver Perez will make $12 million a year through 2011, but he has started just 14 games in the first year of his new deal and averaged less than five innings per start. Perez has not had an xFIP below 4.65 since 2004. His wildness and inability to get ground balls were well known by the time the Mets gave him that large deal, but they seemed think that, even at 27, he had so much upside that it was okay to pay him as much as their much-hyped new closer, Francisco Rodriguez.

Divisional rivals in Philadelphia, meanwhile, decided to extend the contract of 46-year-old finesse pitcher Jamie Moyer, signing him for $6.5 million per year in 2009 and 2010. Entirely predictably, Moyer regressed to his home run-inducing ways, eventually earning the ignominy of being the team’s 6th starter.

Of course, these deals were signed by clubs competing in the free market, and no one was screaming that clubs needed to be protected from bad investments and iffy veterans didn’t deserve such huge contracts. But, for whatever reason, mainstream baseball analysts love to go after the money paid to amateur talent; implicitly, there is an assumption that Major League Baseball Experience makes every player more ready to Play The Game than rookie talent. Prospects are, again, gambles to some extent, but implying that minor league (or even amateur) numbers have no correlation whatsoever to talent that will translate into Major League success is silly at best, and self-servingly arrogant at worst. There are plenty of young “busts,” obviously, who imploded for one reason or another in the majors, but the suggestion that no player outside of MLB can be predicted at all is incredibly fallacious.

With that in mind, the pundits complaining about the money paid to drafted players need to look elsewhere – escalating salaries for MLB players. Since 1990, a rough proxy for when salaries really started exploding (they increased 54% going to 1991, then another 22% for 1992), MLB’s minimum wage (now $400,000) has quadrupled, but average player salary has been multiplied by a factor of 5.5. Young talent, then, is more valuable than it was when most of these analysts were in their playing days – the rates of increase have become more favorable for young talent this decade, but the point remains. A rookie in 1990 made just more than 1/6 as much as an average salaried player; a rookie in 2009 makes 1/8 as much.

Returning to some numbers cited earlier, Strasburg will make roughly $4 million a year in his first four pro seasons. #2 pick Dustin Ackley will average “only” $1.5″ per year, and #3 Donovan Tate a little less than that. That’s a bit steeper than the average rookie (assuming they make the majors during those contracts), but it’s also fair to project them to be more valuable than most rookies. And let’s compare them to some “proven” major leaguers.

With stats (more than 10 K/BB, and low HR!) and scouts (100 mph!) both impressed by his dominant arsenal, Strasburg is as good a bet as there is among young pitchers to be at least a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter (with considerable upside). It’s reasonable to think he can be at least as good as Arizona’s Doug Davis (making $8.75 million this year), or Los Angeles’ Jon Garland ($6.25M) or Randy Wolf ($5M).

Tate and Ackley are less historically impressive talents, but both outfielders still stack up fine if one considers their salaries compared to even fringe talents. Cincinnati’s Willy Taveras is making an average of more than $3 million to make outs 70% of the time and offer little power. Tate’s Padres are paying Brian Giles $9 million to be an injured backup outfielder. If Tate and Ackley can just reach base at a .330 clip and slug around .400, they’ll be outproducing journeyman OF Mark Kotsay, who makes a similar amount of money.

Of course, “veterans get overpaid!” doesn’t mean general managers are off the hook, but my issue has never been that clubs are infallible. Rather, I simply don’t see why the media chooses to obsess over draft picks’ salaries that are, at worst, comparable to the sort of fringe talents that draft stars can conservatively expect to become. The signing bonuses over $5 million for amateur players may seem like a lot, but when one considers the element of club control, the issue becomes far more cloudy; these big numbers aren’t being paid to guaranteed major league stars, but they are rational, multi-year insurance policies against relying on older players with lower upside at comparable cost on the free agent market. If one wants to complain about overpaid athletes, one needs to start with overpaid mediocrities, not the up-and-comers who only become more valuable when teams focus too much on veterans.

a walking study in demonology

September 14, 2009 at 8:34 pm | In Movies, Rants, Society, Stupid Things | 2 Comments
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I don’t plan on seeing Jennifer’s Body.

It’s not because I’m not a horror fan (I am), or because I’m cheap and prefer to stay at home (although I do). With my low expectations thanks to the easy-to-ruin nature of the “Final Destination” and “Halloween” franchises, next week’s literal man-eater has piqued my interest more than anything this year other than perhaps “Star Trek” (and even then, the ability to ruin a franchise – particularly by rebooting it – kept my expectations guarded). It’s simply the fact that Megan Fox is destroying America – and not in a fun, “death panels, ACORN, and child indoctrination” way; her popular appeal reinforces the collagen-and-silicone mold of attractiveness I generally find bland at best and dangerous at worst, and I can’t help but think of the plague of raunch culture with the way she markets herself.

But I digress; my intent wasn’t to blog about boycotting Megan Fox’s work, but address the one criticism I’ve seen in multiple places and finally heard from a respected friend: the movie looks stupid. That was a bit of a head-scratcher for me the first dozen or so times I heard it, enough so I sat around cogitating on our culture’s perception of horror films for a while. To some extent, the arguments against Jennifer’s Body are obvious; considering her fame comes from Transformers, Fox’s involvement naturally raises a red flag, and with two critical bombs already out this fall in the aforementioned Halloween 2 and The Final Destination, the assumption that Jennifer’s Body will be low-quality trash isn’t altogether without merit.

And the commercials aren’t doing anything to combat the potential for negativity. Perhaps I’m only seeing the spots aired on SyFy and late at night, aimed at young male viewers, but the gist of the promotion seems to be, “look, boobs! Also, she’s totally gonna kill this dude.” Perhaps that’s an accurate summary of the film, in which case this blog entry will look foolish, but it’s rather difficult for me to believe that a well-regarded screenwriter like Diablo Cody would suddenly decide to spend her time making bad bad movies*. She created an Emmy-nominated show in United States of Tara and won an Academy Award for Juno**, and these accomplishments have been mentioned in the promotion for Jennifer’s Body… when, exactly?

Of course, one could write off the idea that horror fans care about writing, and simply assume that Cody’s involvement would be entirely irrelevant. After all, how many horror writers (in the film genre) are household names? Outside of devoted genre fans, writers are generally not going to bring much additional attention to a movie – or so the logic apparently goes.

But if that writer has decent mainstream recognition, critical acclaim, and fans who otherwise wouldn’t be interested in a horror film… what’s to be lost by hyping her involvement? What’s to gain seems far more promising – a sizable female demographic perhaps cold to the “torture porn” genre that seems to dominate more “serious” horror these days.

Of course, that points to the second potential problem with eliminating Cody’s involvement from most of the TV spots for Jennifer’s Body – the film is being sold as straight horror, when everything I’ve read indicates Cody hasn’t lost her renowned wit. Here, there’s at least a comprehensible commercial motivation for the approach – horror-comedy is hardly a formula for success. While Shaun of the Dead garnered critical acclaim, it was only a modest box-office success; horror-comedies like Teeth (which I still need to see) are hardly commercial models, and the exquisitely cheesy Slither was a box office disaster. It’s hard, then, to wholly fault the promotion of Jennifer’s Body for being played as straight horror; anything outside that box is a major commercial gamble.

But… if not now, when? It’s hard to imagine a better setup to sell the horror-comedy genre than a renowned comedy writer, and it’s harder still to fathom that those lured in by teased lesbianism and nudity would suddenly opt out of the film if it didn’t take itself seriously enough. And what’s the problem with horror-comedy, anyway? Don’t tension and humor go hand in hand? Considering the grimness of current events, don’t people want to be amused as much as they want to be thrilled? Am I truly in a tiny minority who enjoy cringing and laughing in rapid succession?

This, perhaps, is the most troubling issue raised as I reflect on these issues: do we, as a society, truly prefer films that stamp out hope and joy in pursuit of bleak, grim terror? I’m not much of a fan of the Saw franchise or its ilk, but a dark, despair-heavy film like Quarantine can work well. But is “serious” horror the only flavor in which the genre can succeed? And if that’s the case, what does that say about our society’s love of absolutism and distaste for ambiguity? Is it simply that distasteful to have a movie that doesn’t neatly fit into the drama/comedy binary?

It’s hard to fathom why Jennifer’s Body is being promoted in such a narrow framing, yet because of that promotional model, easy to understand why so many seem so ambivalent about it. Still, there are more questions than answers here. If one is going to be lured in by the sexualized promotion, would one really be driven away by commercials that also noted that an acclaimed writer was responsible for the movie? Is the marketing strategy here attempting to drive away fans of Diablo Cody and well-written movies in general? Most importantly (in my mind) is why, considering the advertisements aren’t doing much to sell the film’s plot in any way, the humorous aspects aren’t being emphasized – and what this says about horror fans and society in general. If the next big movie I’m interested in – Zombieland – gets similarly undersold for its comedy value, I’m going to become seriously (no pun intended) worried about what it all means.

* Not a typo. Good bad movies exist and are frequently awesome. See: Planet Terror.
** I have seen neither work mentioned, but tend to trust such critical acclaim, and am speaking more about promotional tactics than my own expectations of quality.

running on empty

August 22, 2009 at 5:06 pm | In Baseball | 4 Comments
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It’s been a while since the Rangers ran the Red Sox into the ground with eight stolen bases in a game, but I’ve been sifting through a lot of data and trying to figure out how best to address an argument that cropped up among Red Sox fans on Twitter (and was touched on by NESN’s announcers) during that loss: whether the pitchers (namely the already awful Brad Penny) deserve the blame for how much opponents have run this year (118 SB allowed and 14% CS are both the worst in baseball), or if catcher Jason Varitek is a defensive problem who, despite what he’s meant to the Red Sox in the past, is hurting Boston’s chances this year. I was strongly of the opinion that Varitek is a large part of the problem, but with enough back-and-forth, I became convinced that the issue at least merited more than cursory investigation. So I’ve put together game logs including every pitcher/catcher battery employed by the Red Sox this year, and came up with two key results:

Brad Penny is awful at stopping runners. If you watch the Red Sox, you probably knew that. Using THT’s basic pitching data, I’ve looked at Penny not only compared to other Red Sox pitchers, but pitchers throughout baseball. The results… well, there’s no way to defend Penny’s ability to stop the running game.

Among 432 MLB pitchers with 20 or more innings pitched this year, Penny ranks 10th in steals per inning; his lousy rate over 24 starts also means he’s allowed more steals (27) and net steals (25) than anyone in baseball. Penny’s career suggests that these rates are worse than his usual skill set, but we can’t simply blame the fact that he’s allowing more guys to reach base; in the rest of his career, approximately 8.7% of runners (H+BB-HR) attempted to run, and 6.3% successfully stole. This year, 15.3% of Penny’s baserunners have attempted to run, and 14.2% have been successful. Clearly, opponents are not only able to hit the hefty hurler’s mediocre stuff, but are well aware that he will not hold them when they reach first.

But Penny’s permission of steals does not erase my second main point, and original thesis: Varitek is a big part of the problem. After the track event in Arlington, the veteran sat several games due to a neck injury; it’s entirely possible that the injury is part of his declining abilities. Still, I’m not as interested in the reason why Varitek is struggling as I am in demonstrating that he is, in fact, a liability. I’m referring to “liability” in terms of ability to stop runners; CERA arguments are entirely pointless due to the lack of comparison points (Varitek has caught over 71% of the Red Sox’ innings, meaning there’s minimal data to compare pitchers’ performance with different backstops), and arguments based on “intangibles” are, by definition, impossible to prove. We’re also only looking at 2009; Varitek’s CS% is at a career low, and he’s already allowed more steals than in any season since 2000. Clearly, he’s fallen quite a bit.

In 15 innings with non-Varitek catchers, Penny has not allowed a steal or even seen an attempt this year. That’s a small sample size and probably means next to nothing, but it certainly doesn’t hurt my case. Far more significant is the catcher that Varitek has been in 2009 with other pitchers:

Varitek with… Inn. SB CS SB/Inn. SB%
All pitchers 770 92 15 .12 86%
Penny 116.7 27 2 .23 93%
Non-Penny 653.3 65 13 .10 83%

Looking at all 2009 catchers, it’s clear that Varitek is, even when working with non-Penny hurlers, below average in his ability to hold runners. If we look at the 79 MLB catchers with at least 40 innings and use that final line – Varitek’s stats without the Sox’ worst pitcher – instead of his real stats, he still ranks 10th in SB%, 12th in steals per inning, and second in net steals.

For the final indictment of Varitek’s defensive value, let’s look at the pitchers who’ve had at least 10 innings with both the Captain and other Red Sox catchers:

Battery Inn. SB CS SB/Inn. SB%
Bard-Varitek 25.7 2 0 .08 100%
Bard-Other 11.3 2 0 .18 100%
Beckett-Varitek 145.7 10 2 .07 83%
Beckett-Other 16.7 2 0 .12 100%
Delcarmen-Varitek 33 6 1 .18 86%
Delcarmen-Other 16.3 1 0 .06 100%
Lester-Varitek 146 14 5 .10 74%
Lester-Other 15 0 1 0 0%
Okajima-Varitek 39.7 0 0 0 N/A
Okajima-Other 12.3 0 0 0 N/A
Papelbon-Varitek 36.7 8 0 .22 100%
Papelbon-Other 15.3 2 1 .13 67%
Penny-Varitek 116.7 27 2 .23 93%
Penny-Other 15 0 0 0 N/A
Ramirez-Varitek 40 5 0 .13 100%
Ramirez-Other 14 0 0 0 N/A
Saito-Varitek 28.7 5 1 .17 83%
Saito-Other 15.3 2 1 .13 67%

Of 9 pitchers with enough innings, 6 have seen worse results on the basepaths with Varitek catching, and the left-handed Okajima has held runners equally well regardless of catcher. Varitek isn’t splitting time with strong defensive catchers – George Kottaras has been almost as bad without knuckleballer Tim Wakefield as with him, and while Victor Martinez has yet to see a steal attempt in his time with the Red Sox and isn’t as bad as his reputation, he’s certainly more valuable for his bat than his arm.

In summary: yes, Penny is awful at holding runners. But in 2009, Varitek has more than his share of problems, demonstrated by both his numbers even without Boston’s worst starter and the comparison of pitchers who have had time with him and other catchers this year. Red Sox fans can certainly be forgiven for loyalty to a player who has been such a big part of the franchise, but it’s inexcusable to ignore his shortcomings and place the blame squarely on the pitching staff.

summer’s killing us

August 9, 2009 at 8:51 pm | In Baseball | 1 Comment
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The AL East slant on this week’s entry is a bit surprising; the futile efforts of the Red Sox have reminded me of my passion for all baseball – even non-contending clubs in well-played games – so you’d think I’d be talking more about the Indians’ youth movement or something. But without as many transactions to talk about, and no heart to tear apart a team for starting a lousy player while my favorite club continues to do no better than Nick Green, we’re stuck with a whole lotta Rays.  Oh, and the obvious:

Mistake of the Week: I’ll just get it off my chest and give this award to the entirety of the Red Sox’ second half to date. It’s not just that Boston is 8-13 since the All-Star break, but also the sort of moves they’ve made. Most recently, I’m befuddled by the quick cut of John Smoltz. While his line drive, ground ball, and walk rates are all solid enough, the results haven’t been there for the 42-year-old bigot – whoops, I mean “gutty veteran and sure-fire Hall of Famer!” – and it’s understandable that a struggling club would pull him from the rotation. But team is so desperately in need of a long man that two pitchers have made their 2009 MLB debuts at Yankee Stadium, one of whom was Junichi Tazawa, in his first year of American baseball. Smoltz’ contract pays him by days spent on the 25-man roster, but despite their frugal ways lately, the Red Sox could easily afford $500,000 to keep him around for two more weeks working in mop-up and trying to re-find his stuff. Perhaps they’ll convince him to accept a minor league assignment instead of becoming a free agent, but the way things are going, I’m rather skeptical.

Still, as I write this, the Red Sox have gone 24 straight innings without scoring a run, so it’s not just pitching that’s plaguing what looked like a World Series contender a month ago. I’m not saying that one mediocre bat could change that fact, of course, but it’s tough to look at the team’s struggling shortstops – Jed Lowrie just hit the DL; Nick Green has just two hits in the last 28 days; recent pickup Chris Woodward was on waivers thanks to his abysmal play for the third-place Mariners – and not get even more upset about the hasty dumping of Julio Lugo before Lowrie had even shown any sort of offense at AAA as he recovered from wrist surgery. The only legitimate strike against Lugo was his glove, but for the massive downgrade he is at the plate, Woodward doesn’t offer much in the field himself. At this point, I’d just as soon see minor leaguer Ivan Ochoa, whose weak bat at is at least mitigated by a strong defensive reputation and the potential for a few stolen bases.

The Red Sox are still one of the brighter clubs in baseball, and their recent struggles are largely due to a slumping, injured lineup and Tim Wakefield’s absence from the rotation. But with questionable decisions like not even trying Smoltz in the bullpen, and outright foolish moves like dumping Lugo, it’s fair to say that GM Theo Epstein deserves his share of blame if the Red Sox come up just short this year.

Underrated Cut(s): The way he’s being dumped this week, you’d think there was something wrong with R.J. Swindle. The lefty reliever was cut by the Brewers and claimed by the Rays on Friday, then designated for assignment by Tampa Bay on Saturday. For all the talk about how lefties can keep jobs, Swindle has an unusually tough time FINDING one; while his major league numbers leave much to be desired, he has better than a strikeout per inning at AAA, and an impressively low walk rate. While he isn’t a groundballer, he has been remarkably consistent at keeping the ball in the park throughout his minor league career; the five home runs he’s given up in short time in the majors look more flukish than a true indictment of his talent. Considering has negligible service time, there are a lot of teams who could – and frequently manage to – do a lot worse than giving Swindle a real chance to settle in at the big-league level.

Shrewd Move of the Week: I’ve often felt like pillorying the usually smart Rays for keeping catcher Dioner Navarro around for so long; he’s hit for a staggeringly awful .252 OBP and has seen his defense slip considerably. The offensive deficiencies are partially due to a low BABIP, however, and he’s only 25; it’s hard to argue that such a significant piece of the 2008 AL champions should be entirely out of a job. But the Rays are chasing Boston for a wild card berth, and finding help behind the plate seemed a necessity. To that end, I must commend (and fear) Tampa Bay’s waiver claim on catcher Gregg Zaun, who found himself losing starts in Baltimore as rookie Matt Wieters took over. The Rays might also use him as a backup – at 38, Zaun struggled as an everyday player, but started hitting once his playing time was cut – but he still represents a considerable upgrade to Michel Hernandez and Shawn Riggans, even if he doesn’t get a chance to steal Navarro’s job outright.

Futility of the Week: It wasn’t all that long ago that talked about the Indians picking up a nice AAAA arm in Winston Abreu, but that trade has been completely negated by now. Having given him just three appearances – albeit none of them successful – the Indians cut ties with Abreu, meaning that they had surrendered a half-decent prospect in John Meloan for a one-month rental reliever. Lest one think Abreu is simply not good and teams learn that after having him, the Rays quickly signed Abreu, landing him right back in AAA Durham. The next day, they designated Meloan for assignment; it remains to be seen whether another team has interest in him, but it would be fitting if he could return to Cleveland and render the whole affair a complete waste of time for everyone involved.

it was the heat of the moment

July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 Comments
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Trade deadline live-ish blogging!

4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.

4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.

4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.

4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.

4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.

4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.

3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.

3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.

3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.

3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?

3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.

3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.

3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.

2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.

2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.

2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.

2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.

1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?

Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.

1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.

1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.

1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.

1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.

11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.

First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.

Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.

Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.

Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.

I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.

all the small things

July 30, 2009 at 4:42 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
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While the Red Sox continue trampling my soul return to being awesome, a roundup of some of this week’s smaller trades (and by “small” I mean “occurred since my last blog and/or don’t involve many players;” several of these guys are important parts on contending teams or real prospects).

Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson.
The Dodgers filled a significant area of need, and did so with the best option on the market. Sherrill has two more years of arbitration, and should be an excellent left-handed setup man like Will Ohman and Hong-Chih Kuo were supposed to be. It is, however, worth noting that Sherrill battled severe control issues in 2008 and 2006, so he’s hardly a sure thing; it’s also significant that he’s 32 years old, and could be washed up by the time he hits free agency. This is clearly a win-now move, though, and with the Phillies upgrading their rotation, it’s understandable why Los Angeles was willing to risk those things for the potential to bolster their bullpen.

Bell is a significant price to pay for a reliever with such question marks, though; the 22-year-old looks like a nice power hitter in the making, and has adjusted well to AA. If he can field enough to stick at third, the O’s got a pretty nice hitter here for a pitcher unlikely to be on a contending Baltimore club. Johnson’s a run-of-the-mill low-minors pitching prospect; he’s 21 and has been in the system since 2005, only reaching AA this year. He seems to have some strikeout potential, but gives up too many HRs to look like anything but organizational fodder.

Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson.
Are you @%$^ing kidding me? Giants GM Brian Sabean has done some weird, stupid things in his time, but this one still came as a shock. Sanchez is a nice add and a lock to contribute more than the Giants’ AAA players who have attempted to man second base (not as much an upgrade from Juan Uribe, but that’s beside the point). He’ll add a little speed, a little pop, a little defense, and give the wildcard-leading Giants a slightly better shot at October.

That’s not enough. I’m okay dealing prospects for impact players who could increase one’s chances of a World Series berth, but the Giants cannot be considered one of the NL’s stronger playoff clubs, and Sanchez only serves to fill a hole. That in mind, the price was absolutely staggering. Alderson was San Francisco’s #2 pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner. While low strikeout totals seem to undermine a lot of the hype around him, he’s still an exorbitant price to pay for an okay second baseman; even if we accept that Alderson isn’t the front-of-the-rotation starter that some believe he is, his value on the market ought to have been a fair deal greater than a minor pickup like Sanchez.

Cincinnati Reds traded RP Robert Manuel to Seattle Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien.
This is one that makes decent sense for both teams. Balentien is a year younger, but has thus far not translated some translated minor-league power into major-league hitting success. He’s a strikeout liability, but perhaps the National League and a friendlier home park will help him rediscover his stroke. The Reds have suffered injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson, so it makes sense to add another young guy who still could turn into a long-term asset.

Manuel seems closer to being a useful major leaguer, though, so I give the edge in this trade to Seattle. The 26-year-old didn’t get much time in a surprisingly strong Reds bullpen, but his minor league numbers make him an interesting relief prospect. To be successful in the AL, he’ll probably need to find the strikeout ability he showed as one of the Southern League’s best pitchers last year, but his control makes him a nice asset even if he doesn’t blow batters away.

Boston Red Sox traded “1B”/”OF” Mark Kotsay to Chicago White Sox for CF Brian Anderson.
27-year-old Anderson can’t hit and is overrated in the field. 33-year-old Kotsay can’t hit, can’t field, and was designated for assignment, giving the Red Sox a limited window to trade him; he will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Red Sox traded sure garbage for probable garbage that has a slim chance of turning into something of small value.

grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

July 29, 2009 at 9:12 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
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Cleveland Indians traded SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies for SPs Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp, C Lou Marson, and SS Jason Donald.

What this deal is: a nice job by the Phillies to add a very good arm to a rotation that could be good, but has underachieved a bit. I’m relieved that Lee isn’t heading to Fenway, where righties might take advantage of the Green Monster, but still figured he’d cost more than the Phillies paid, even with his question marks (I heard an analyst say that Lee will be fine in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philly, because he’s “a strikeout pitcher;” that’s patently untrue as he hasn’t had even 7 K per 9 since 2004).

What it’s not: good for the Indians’ future.

I’m not one for sports talk radio, but I had to listen in on Cleveland’s AM stations today and hear the reactions to this one. One sentence I heard summed things up this well: “Mark Shapiro isn’t dumb.”

The Indians GM is indeed no fool, which makes it hard to see past the salary dump aspect of this move. Lee will make $8 million next year, and that was clearly too much for the Indians to retain the 2008 Cy Young winner. Francisco’s not due for arbitration until next winter, so his inclusion here looks more about opening an opportunity for prospect Matt LaPorta (and giving Philly a solid bat off the bench) than about money. Cutting expenditures has been expected for the Indians, but the prospect package here makes it look like building the farm system is a clear second to saving money.

For Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays wanted a package including some from the group of pitchers J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor. All but Drabek look to be worth the hype, in my eyes; the 21-year-old has only reached AA this year and seems neither overpowering nor exceptionally able to locate his pitches. Of that group, I’d find Michael Taylor the most exceptional, and understand if Philly only wanted to deal, say, Happ and Brown.

But because of the Indians’ willingness to settle, they didn’t have to part with either to get a slightly worse pitcher who makes roughly half as much money. Instead, the Tribe added a less advanced, right-handed version of Happ in Carrasco; they’ll have to hope that the most polished product in the group harnesses his stuff a bit more and becomes the #4-5 starter that Happ already is.

The more interesting arm is Knapp, who has struck out more than a better per inning at the low minors. Not yet 19, he’s got plenty of time to develop into a very nice pitcher, and if he stays healthy, he’s by far the most likely to be a significant piece of a Cleveland club. …except he’s already battling shoulder soreness this year.

Donald will soon be 25, and took big steps back after moving up to AAA; his power disappeared and his on-base percentage is a paltry .297, though that could be explained by a knee injury that led to surgery earlier this season. Finally, there’s Marson, who had a great 2008 but lost some of his patience and power this year. I still like his discipline if not his power, but his ceiling doesn’t seem high. I’d guess that his presence signals the imminent departure of C Victor Martinez (and/or backup C Kelly Shoppach, who’s due for a raise in arbitration this winter). Anyone who can stay behind the plate has a pretty low offensive threshold, but he’s yet another player on a down year.

And that is, in a nutshell, the problem with this deal. The Indians acquired not one player who hasn’t seen his value fall lately; buying low is one thing, but taking four prospects who are having down and/or injured years just seems unnecessarily risky, particularly since none of them were as promising as someone like Taylor without weighing these problems.  In my mind, this package could be seen as roughly fair if the Phillies’ prospects were healthy and performing up to expectations.

Cleveland opted for some guys who have low ceilings but are close to the majors, possibly because they can then get away with not paying experienced players in the near future. Young and raw, Knapp is the exception, but it seems foolish to take only one player with star upside for a reigning Cy Young. The Indians didn’t have to make this deal – Lee could have been held another two days to try to squeeze out a better trade, or even shopped this winter. They had leverage in their ability to walk away from the proposal, but it’s very hard to look at the final result and think they properly applied that leverage.

you ain’t going nowhere

July 29, 2009 at 2:54 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
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I should have a review of the Cliff Lee deal up tonight, but first, a boring trade not likely to impact playoff races!

Pittsburgh Pirates traded SS Jack Wilson and SP Ian Snell to Seattle Mariners for C/1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, and minor league SPs Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock.

First thought: the Pirates are finally doing something not thoroughly futile. Second thought: …and that’s about all I can say for them.

Wilson will be a free agent at the end of the year (or rather, with an expensive club option, his team should make him a free agent), and Snell’s stock has fallen quite a bit since his eye-opening 2007 season. There’s nothing about Wilson that a team completely out of the hunt is likely to miss, and Snell is the sort of player for whom the proverbial “change of scenery” trade seems to make sense.  With the Pirates paying most of their salaries for 2009, the deal has to be judged solely on the players going back to Pittsburgh.

Clement is easily the centerpiece of the package from Seattle; the 25-year-old can take walks and has solid power that could make him a nice doubles hitter in the majors, even if he can’t convert some of those two-baggers to home runs. The question, however, is where he’ll play – Clement was a catching prospect, but has increasingly been used as a designated hitter. If the Pirates are forced to use him at first base, it’s tough to see him being anything special, but he could at least be a cheap, solid hitter for a team that won’t be shooting for anything past “respectable” for several years.

But that’s about it for now – Cedeno is only 26, but he should manage to be a downgrade from Jack Wilson’s productivity. The prospects are where the Mariners could eventually regret the deal, but that looks unlikely to me; they moved quantity rather than quality here. None of the pitchers are highly ranked on any of the lists I found (including Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and a handful of others), and none of them have stats that make me think they’re being undervalued. 22-year-old Lorin has shown some strikeout ability, but with walk problems. Pribanic is soon to be 23, and his hopes look to hinge on continuing to induce ground balls. Adcock is the most advanced of the trio, but that’s not saying much; in the High-A California League, he’s seen his walks spike and his strikeouts dip; he’s only 21, but has been in the M’s system since 2006, and his slow advancement has to be considered a negative indicator.

I really like Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, and I’m willing to trust his evaluation of his own prospects. He gave up quite a few young trading chips, but the best bet to help the Pirates is likely to do so in pretty mediocre fashion. The idea that Seattle can make a run at the wild card (currently behind three teams and 6.5 out) seems far-fetched, but stranger things have happened, and this isn’t just a move for 2009. Snell has been dominant at AAA Indianapolis, so his potential’s not gone yet; he’s due just over $4 million next year, and the Mariners then have a pair of club options. If he does well in the spacious Safeco Field, he represents a solid arm under team control for several years; if not… well, he’s still farther along than any of the prospects will likely ever be. And if his presence gives the Mariners the depth to deal fly ball-prone SP Jarrod Washburn before he turns back into a pumpkin, better still.

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