what’s on my mind grapes?

The bad news: one giant blunder has destroyed my faith in a promising GM, making me wonder what I ever saw in that sorry excuse for an MLB executive.

The good news: the Red Sox are again concerned primarily with the Yankees, instead of an annoying second-rate rival, which helps this “musical guilty pleasure satisfies similarly shameful baseball apparel pseudo-fetish” story remain untainted by clear and present danger to Boston’s playoff hopes from the name on the cute woman’s jersey.

Creepy intro aside: on to the analysis!

Why Do You Still Have A Job? When one talks about Philadelphia’s pitching woes, it’s important to note that there are more than a few problems on that staff. Citizens Bank Park hasn’t even played as a high-offense environment this year, but the rotation is riddled with ERAs in the mid-4s, while closer Brad Lidge has been unbelievably awful amidst a bullpen anchored by Ryan Madson. Yet there’s enough talent in Philly to make it hard to justify massive changes… except when it comes to Jamie Moyer. I’ll confess that I wasn’t hard enough on the Phillies when they granted a two-year, $13 million extension to the 46-year-old southpaw last winter, probably because it looked downright sane next to the Raul Ibanez contract (which still has plenty of time to become a huge mistake). But now, that huge investment looks like the only defensible answer to the question that provides a title to this section. Thus far, Moyer has posted the worst home run rate of his career, while his strikeouts are down from last year. With a .307 average on balls in play, Moyer may have had a few unlucky breaks this year, but bloop singles are hardly his problem. For context:

Player A: .360 OBP, .537 SLG, 12 doubles and 14 HR in 272 PA
Player B: .360 OBP, .538 SLG, 10 doubles and 17 HR in 242 PA

Player A represents Moyer’s opponents this year. Player B is Carlos Pena. If one is forced to face a lineup of Carlos Penas, one’s chances of winning are not particularly good. These are the circumstances for which the Phillies are paying more than five percent of this year’s payroll*.

Underrated Addition: The Reds have a well-known pitching prospect in Homer Bailey, but when Edinson Volquez went on the DL for the second time this year, Cincy finally gave a chance to a lesser known arm in Matt Maloney. I mentioned Maloney in my pre-season write-up, but due to past issues with the long ball, he looked more like a late-season option. With Bailey’s own home run problems, however, Maloney finally got a chance, and the results were predictable: too many home runs to be a front-end guy, but just one walk, and ultimately six solid innings that put the Reds in position to win. There’s no way to avoid the fact that all of the home runs severely limit Maloney’s value, but considering how poorly Bailey has pitched in the majors and his iffy control, I’d have to say that Cincy’s using the superior pitcher at this point, even if he is almost an obscurity next to the well-known Bailey.

Overrated Player of the Week: It’s no secret that I love the Red Sox, but it’s similarly obvious that I’m willing to call things as I see them even when it reflects poorly on the franchise. This week, the team brought Mark Kotsay back to the majors after a long rehab assignment to recover from back surgery and then a calf strain. It’s widely accepted that Kotsay gives the team a valuable bench presence capable of playing first base and outfield to rest the club’s starters, and everyone from NESN to national media seems to love the guy. The only problem? He’s awful at baseball. The 33-year-old can provide mediocre-to-acceptable defense, but with a bat as useless as his, his modest value in the field is more than erased. Despite low strikeout rates, Kotsay has not managed an OBP over .340 since 2004. His rehab stint doesn’t offer many positive indicators for his bat: no walks, and just one extra-base hit in 33 at-bats. Sample size warnings attach, but when you’re posting a BABIP over .310 and still can’t get your on-base percentage over .300 at AAA, there’s a pretty good chance you’re just not an offensive asset.

Kotsay wouldn’t be an obscene use of a bench spot on a non-contending club, but for a team with Boston’s expectations and resources, there’s no excuse for the presence of such a player. There are numerous 1B/OF options at AAA, including Jeff Bailey (.390 OBP at AAA this year), Chris Carter (slugged .515 at AAA last year), and Jon Van Every (26 HR at AAA last year, and more than solid in a short MLB stint this season). Instead, Boston’s going with a veteran who hasn’t had an OPS of even .750 since before Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted. As far as I’m concerned, Kotsay’s best asset is his solid chance of going back on the DL and forcing the team to give playing time to better and younger hitters.
Concessions That Don’t Change The Meaning Of The Big Picture And Larger Statistical Samples: While I was writing this indictment of his bat, Kotsay hit a home run.

Mistake of the Week (Or “Heartbreaking Betrayal of Foolish Optimism of the Week”): The acquisition of outfielder Nate McLouth could just as easily have been “Shrewd Move of the Week” for the Braves, but it stands out more starkly as undermining my faith in Neal Huntington. After other scathing reviews of the deal, Huntington tried to defend
himself, but his claims that the trade had no financial motivation makes it all the harder to justify; as much as I had come to like Huntington, the trade and his poor explanation are rather heartbreaking. Gorkys Hernandez “has the speed and potential to become an above average everyday major league outfielder?” Possibly, but as he slugs just .375 at AA and has some damning strikeout tendencies, it looks more likely that his future is as a defensive center fielder with some speed – and a below-average bat. Charlie Morton’s “upside” and “power” pitching? Even if we toss out his disasterous time in the bigs, Morton is 25 and has never struck out even a batter per inning at any level of the minors. Huntington’s description of Jeff Locke as an “intriguing young left handed starter with the frame, athleticism and stuff to become a quality major league starting pitcher” is full of cliches that frequently scream “completely unproven” – and ultimately, the cop-out that they’ll be happy if he just becomes a “quality” starter, conceding a lack of front-end potential. Considering how much Locke has been lost (hooray, TV puns!) upon reaching merely the High-A Carolina League, I’d call him a complete wildcard who needs to start living up to his scouting reports.

None of these players are bad for the Pirates in and of themselves. Huntington is right that his team needs to add quantity as well as quality, but getting no blue-chip prospects for a player like McLouth is simply unacceptable. Much like their surrender of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last year, the Bucs made a trade that they didn’t need to make despite a prospect package that should not have been overwhelming; one such instance isn’t damning, but a second starts to form a concerning pattern. In the case of McLouth’s trade, there is the additional consideration that they dealt a young player signed to a contract favorable to the team – no matter what his defensive shortcomings, he should be worth far more than he’s scheduled to be paid through 2012. McLouth was a player who should have required an overwhelming offer to be traded, and there’s little about the package of Braves prospects that could be seen as overwhelming. For Atlanta, the deal is of such a lopsided nature and huge impact that they move ahead of Seattle and the rapidly falling Pittsburgh and into my top 5.

* This is extremely lazy, cheap, and flawed logic, but I really enjoy “Pitcher N turns opponents into Hitter X” comparisons.