who’ll stop the rain?
February 28, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a commentTags: Mariners
6. Seattle Mariners (76.43% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 24
Added: 1Bs Russell Branyan, Chris Shelton, and Mike Carp; CF Franklin Gutierrez; LFs Ken Griffey Jr. and Endy Chavez; RPs David Aardsma, Tyler Walker, Eric Hull, Tyler Johnson, Jason Vargas, Luis Pena, Tracy Thorpe, Luis Munoz, and Jose Lugo; SP Garrett Olson; SS Ronny Cedeno; IFs Callix Crabbe, Reegie Corona, and Chris Woodward; DH Mike Sweeney
Lost: RPs J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jake Woods; LF Raul Ibanez; CF Jeremy Reed; IFs Tug Hulett, Miguel Cairo, and Luis Valbuena; OF/IF Willie Bloomquist; SP R.A. Dickey
Strengths: The Mariners make up for some of their deficiencies at the plate by carrying a group of strong defenders – C Kenji Johjima, 3B Adrian Beltre, CF Franklin Gutierrez, and RF Ichiro Suzuki – with only SS Yuniesky Betancourt and LF Ken Griffey Jr. representing significantly bad gloves. If Endy Chavez gets any playing time over Griffey in left, it would make one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.
Beyond SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle’s on-field strengths are rather tenuous. 1B Russell Branyan had a great 2008, and generally puts up enough walks and home runs to compensate – and then some – for his lousy contact rate. But he’s 33 and hasn’t spent a full season in the American League since 2001, so it’s tough to put complete faith in the slugger. Similarly, Beltre’s bumpy career path gives me less faith in him than I might another 30-year-old with decent component stats. The final player who might merit mention, SP Erik Bedard, is returning from shoulder surgery, having been out since July after being acquired at a high cost in young players last February.
It is, however, worth noting the overhaul the team went through this offseason. GM Jack Zduriencik, who was the Director of Scouting for the Brewers when they acquired much of their young core, carries a track record that should give fans hope, and I’m also impressed by his willingness to deal a valuable player like Putz – and come out ahead with a younger player (Gutierrez) with less service time (along with a non-negligible minor leaguer in Ezequiel Carrera). Between the new front office and a fresh coaching staff, the Mariners seem to have committed to rebuilding, a decision that would have been even more useful if made by Zduriencik(hereafter simply “Zd”)’s predecessor before trading for Bedard.
Weaknesses: Unfortunately for Mariners fans, Zd inherited a pretty weak team. The bullpen looks to be collection of castoffs from other teams (and their AAA affiliates), and the fact that I listed so many relievers who the team invited to spring training is very much a testament to how few strong incumbents the team has. The rotation is more set, but the options aren’t much better. It will be interesting to see what happens with pitcher Brandon Morrow, who would prefer to start and, despite control problems, looks to have as much upside as anyone on the roster who isn’t named Felix.
As I alluded with my cautious praise of Beltre and Branyan, the lineup is sorely lacking in sure things other than the futility of Yuniesky Betancourt. There’s little of note on the bench – either in young talent or in players who can help this year – and it’s hard to see any current position players other than Gutierrez and OF Wladimir Balentien being significant parts of the next competitive Mariners team. Jeff Clement could join those exceptions if he can get back to catching, but if his defense forces him to stay in a DH/1B role, he’s unlikely to be much of an asset. As I’ve said before, Bill Bavasi ran this team into the ground, and getting the Mariners back on track is not going to be easy.
My Stake: Zd has already made quite an impression as far as GM intelligence rankings go, and while a lot of his moves have been of smaller magnitude, I really liked his willingness to ship out Putz. Engaging in a three-way trade that involves giving up an All-Star pitcher, along with other majors-ready talent, takes guts – and a team as decimated as the Mariners were by Bill Bavasi’s reign will not get back on track with a GM too timid to move popular players. And as a risk-averse individual, I have particular admiration for GMs who are willing to take wise gambles where I might lack the courage to part with a known commodity.
I must acknowledge, however, that there seems to be a honeymoon period for new GMs wherein they look brighter than they ultimately prove to be. Whether it’s just the flaw of a small sample size or rival GMs not taking them as seriously as they should, it seems that rookie GMs often overperform and set expectations too high just before regressing with some less-than-awesome moves. We’ve seen it with Arizona’s Josh Byrnes and Boston’s Theo Epstein – who remains a favorite, but whose early hype didn’t predict an inability to resist overpriced free agent shortstops and Mark Kotsay – and it may be starting with Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman – who also still looks very smart overall, but whose offseason has featured several veteran relievers costing the team younger pitchers with greater upsides. The last few Next Big Things In Brilliant GMs have tended to turn out, well, human, so the deification of Jack Zduriencik seems foolish and premature. I’m putting more proven GMs ahead of him for now, though if he keeps doing what he’s doing, it’ll be tough to hold him back, especially considering my fondness for the city of Seattle and the above-average Safeco Field.
’09 Predictions: The big question facing the Mariners is how important it is to post a decent season after disappointing unfair expectations last year; if they’re willing to write off 2009 entirely and accept outcry from the fan base, they could make some nice trades by the deadline – Branyan, Beltre, Johjima, and even Ichiro could be moved, and some of the team’s older pitchers might look attractive to plug holes created by injury and simply insurance against attrition as the summer heats up. The Mariners, however, don’t have the bench depth of a team like the Nationals, and trading significant pieces could keep the team from improving much on last year’s 67 Pythagorean wins. It would be the right move, because there’s not enough of a core here that a full rebuilding can be expected in just one or two years, but it could prove something of a litmus test as to just how gutsy Zd wants to be in his rookie year as GM. For now, however, I’ll put the Mariners at 72 wins; I don’t think they have to repeat last year’s futility, but their long-term interests might make it worthwhile to suffer 100 losses while restocking the farm.
we’ll be back in the high life again
February 27, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a commentTags: Braves
7. Atlanta Braves (88.68% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 7
Added: SPs Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Kenshin Kawakami; RPs Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty, and Emiliano Fruto; C David Ross; LF Garret Anderson
Lost: SPs John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, and Chuck James; RPs Will Ohman, Jorge Julio, Julian Tavarez, Royce Ring, and Elmer Dessens; IF Ruben Gotay; SS Brent Lillibridge
Strengths: The imported Kawakami is an expensive question mark, but the front of the Braves’ overhauled rotation looks to be a significant strength. While neither is much of an ace, Vazquez and Lowe are likely to each give the team 200 innings of solid pitching, and if 23-year-old Jair Jurrjens can give something similar to his 2008 production, the team is in fine shape even with the final rotation spots looking like a shaky mix of veterans and unspectacular youngsters. The biggest question looks to be whether Jorge Campillo’s breakout season at age 30 is somehow repeatable; because of his unremarkable strikeout and home run rates, they shouldn’t be counting on him for too much, but even a solid #4 would go a long way towards making a very good rotation even better. The team also picked up a nice pair of young left arms for the bullpen in Logan and home run-averse O’Flaherty, though lefty closer Mike Gonzalez might mean only one of the southpaws will make the team out of spring training.
The big assets in the lineup are soon-to-be-37-year-old 3B Chipper Jones and 25-year-old C Brian McCann, though I like 1B Casey Kotchman’s glove and walk/strikeout ratio enough to consider him a breakout candidate.
Weaknesses: While the infield is pretty unobjectionable, the Braves’ outfield situation is just awful. RF Jeff Francoeur is just 25, but has not, in three and a half seasons, brought his walks and home runs up to justify his strikeout totals. LF Garret Anderson is an upgrade from Matt Diaz, who should never have been considered more than a fourth outfielder, but he’ll be 37 in June and lacks the power and defense to make up for his poor on-base abilities. Neither Josh Anderson nor Gregor Blanco has shown enough at the plate to be considered worth starting in CF – and since both are lefties, a platoon situation would seem to be out. The team has failed to sign numerous free agent outfielders this winter before finally settling with Anderson, and considering the low price tags on players like Eric Hinske, Bobby Abreu, and Pat Burrell, this mistake is pretty hard to forgive.
While there are plenty of good arms competing for bullpen spots, the injury situation may still make the relief corps a liability for the team. Closer Mike Gonzalez’s 2008 season was shortened as he returned from Tommy John surgery, Rafael Soriano was ineffective in 14 games before undergoing elbow surgery in August, and Peter Moylan is trying to come back after Tommy John surgery last May. While the team can provide four more relievers to complement them, continued injury troubles could start to give too many innings to too many bad pitchers; Buddy Carlyle is a fine guy to have in the middle of one’s bullpen, but if he ends up with save opportunities at any point, it’s a very bad sign.
My Stake: The Braves stopped getting credit for their smart front office when their playoff appearance streak broke, but they’ve continued to make good moves despite some weaker results. Considering the decent value of large contracts like those given to Vazquez, Jones, and Lowe, it seems that their problem is in identifying the right complementary talent. But with McCann locked up through 2013 and nice small free agent moves like grabbing O’Flaherty off waivers, they seem to have a good, not great, team.
Their system benefited immensely last winter when the Tigers decided, against all reason and logic, that one year of SS Edgar Renteria was worth six each of rookie Jair Jurrjens and CF Gorkys Hernandez, but this winter Atlanta failed to land SP A.J. Burnett and were spurned at the last minute by SS Rafael Furcal (who signed with the Dodgers), and reportedly low-balled long-time Brave SP John Smoltz before he took Boston’s offer. More recently, they reportedly came close to signing LF Ken Griffey Jr. before a reporter’s early scoop allegedly drove Griffey to return to Seattle instead. One or two near misses are understandable, but failing to close so many deals in one offseason reflects poorly on the front office, and, along with a general lack of strong interest in the franchise, keeps them from moving any higher.
’09 Predictions: Like it or not, the Braves have been a strong factor in the National League for too long to be written off because of an outfielder shortage and iffy relief pitching; if they can just find an acceptable center fielder – be it Jim Edmonds, Nick Swisher, or a spring training castoff from an outfielder-rich club – they should be fine. While the bullpen is a legitimate concern, and I’m surprised they didn’t look to add one more arm this winter, the rotation has gained enough that some of the team’s younger arms might be tried out in relief, and it’s unlikely they’ll repeat last year’s underperformance of seven wins compared to their Pythagorean record. Because of the new starting depth, the potential for a healthier bullpen, and how little their departing players contributed last year, I’m calling the 2009 Braves an 85-win team, which could be enough to start a new streak of playoff appearances.
you’ve got to pick up the pieces, come on, sort the trash
February 26, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Nationals
Because Adam Dunn’s contract – and more specifically, his presence on a team with a very good first baseman and no shortage of outfielders – stands in stark contrast to what I believe is a general trend in the right direction for Nationals Jim Bowden, it was hard for me to find the right place to fit this instant classic from U.S.S. Mariner’s Dave Cameron: “This is a classic Jim Bowden move – acquire a former top prospect that he’s already acquired previously, especially if he doesn’t really have room for them on his roster. If Bowden was a general contractor, he’d build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof.” I’m not sure Bowden is that awful anymore, but I appreciate few things more than a snarky simile.
8. Washington Nationals (77.68% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 9
Added: 1B/OF Adam Dunn; SPs Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, and Gustavo Chacin; LF Josh Willingham; CF Corey Patterson; RPs Wilfredo Ledezma, Josh Towers, Jorge Sosa, Terrell Young, and Gary Glover; Cs Javier Valentin and Gustavo Molina; IFs Freddie Bynum and Alex Cintron; 3B Jose Castillo
Lost: RPs Chad Cordero, Brian Sanches, and Charlie Manning; SPs Odalis Perez and Tim Redding; 2B Emilio Bonifacio; 1B Aaron Boone
Strengths: Relative to the whole picture – a franchise that exemplifies habitual haplessness and isn’t likely to show drastic improvement anytime soon – the Nationals have a pretty decent lineup. Dunn and (possibly outgoing) 1B Nick Johnson are great bets to be above average hitters at their positions, and 2B Ronnie Belliard’s strong 2008 makes him, at worst, an interesting gamble for 2009 – particularly since he posted increases in both walk and home run rates. In 3B Ryan Zimmerman and RF Elijah Dukes, both 24, the team has a pair of solid defenders with significant power at the plate. Dukes in particular seems poised to explode into superstardom if he can keep his temper in check; while Zimmerman coasts on a breakout 2006 while lacking much minor league experience, ex-Devil Ray Dukes had shown his power, patience, and speed in the minors for years before his impressive half-season in Washington last year.
While CF Lastings Milledge has not yet posted a noteworthy major-league season and isn’t a strong enough defender to play center field long-term, his potential is too great to not mention, considering that he’s not yet 24.
The team also has depth, if not youth, on its bench. Dunn’s signing, questionable though it was, has created a situation from which the team could make multiple trades. Assuming Dunn starts the season in left field, the team would have five outfielders for two bench spots. The Nationals might be able to find some pitching help or at least prospects if they decided to deal Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns (whose horrible offensive 2008 doesn’t erase his defensive value), Wily Mo Pena (still young at 27, he may not be a complete bust yet), spring training invitee Corey Patterson, or Willie Harris (coming off of a career year). If the team moves Nick Johnson to shift Dunn to first base, it would likely end Dmitri Young’s time in the capital; while he cleared waivers in November, a healthy spring might make him interesting enough that the Nationals could pay most of his $5 million salary or take on a costly, underperforming pitcher (a Young return to Detroit in exchange for Dontrelle Willis?).
Weaknesses: The quantity-over-quality approach makes for interesting debate, at least, as far as hitters go. With the Nationals’ pitching staff, however… well, the quantity’s still there, but quality seems to have been completely neglected. Thanks to injuries, disappointments by former prospects, and Manny-wannabe Odalis Perez, I could see as many as six spots open on the pitching staff. The problem for me is that too many of the pitchers are has-beens trying to come back or low-ceiling guys past the age of likely breakout seasons; much like the team’s bench, some of these arms could be trade bait if they re-establish themselves, but they represent much bigger question marks and are supporting a far weaker core group. Even the team’s most likely back-of-the-bullpen group – Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, and Saul Rivera – look more like middle relief or fringe setup guys who would be far more impressive with a proven reliever or two at the back of the bullpen. I would, however, quite enjoy seeing Jordan Zimmermann win the fifth starter’s role and join 3B Ryan Zimmerman on the big club; his solid work at AA makes it a possibility out of spring, and only starting his third pro season at 22, he seems a fair bet to make it to Washington eventually.
I remain a skeptic of SS Cristian Guzman’s rebirth in 2007, and his high BABIPs in the past two years give one good reason to raise an eyebrow. That uncertainty at the plate combined with some spotty defense makes shortstop a liability for the Nationals, and young backup Alberto Gonzalez isn’t a great bet to improve the position in either dimension.
Finally, one must note a few serious defensive holes on the team. Whether he plays first base of left field, Dunn’s glove will be a hole. I’m not as optimistic about Belliard’s glove as I am his bat, and Milledge’s below-average glove seems to be waiting to move to left field as soon as his bat can justify it.
My Stake: Despite Jim Bowden’s iffy (at best) track record, I’ve been impressed by his ability in recent years to find high-upside players, frequently at small cost. The team has a nice young core, and it’s always hard for me to dislike clubs that collect such players as Dukes and Olsen without giving up anything they’re likely to miss. That’s not to say that Bowden is without his glaring problems – I have no defense for the $16 million, two-year extension given to Guzman, whose history does not make him look likely to continue as a useful player. But his eye for talent seems praiseworthy at this point, even if it is more suited to be a scouting director than a GM; his recent failures are not of grossly misvaluing players, but lacking the ability (or perhaps, as it is still only February, merely the interest) to assemble a complete roster, rather than an unstructured collection of the best players he can get.
I loved the futility of the Expos, and while the franchise’s new home is slightly less fun (as is their logo, which looks more like delicious frosting and less like comical toothpaste), I can readily get behind a talented roster headed by a manager who isn’t afraid to look at things in new ways.
’09 Predictions: Just because they’re moving in the right direction in a slow, potentially-easily-derailed way doesn’t mean they’re going to be good. I like their offseason moves quite a bit, however, and I’m willing to give them all of 75 wins in deference to their strong offseason, positional depth, and the All-Star upsides of several position players. I also anticipate that their depth will lead to at least a few trades between now and October, and while it might be better to strengthen the farm, Bowden might be fighting for his job and be more inclined to use the team’s spare parts to get an overpaid or underperforming impact player.
better days shining through
February 25, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 4 CommentsTags: Reds
9. Cincinnati Reds (75.66% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 25
Added: Cs Ramon Hernandez and Humberto Cota; RPs Arthur Rhodes and Aaron Fultz; 1B Daryle Ward; OFs Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, and Jacque Jones; CF Willy Taveras
Lost: RPs Jeremy Affeldt, Gary Majewski, and Kent Mercker; CF Corey Patterson; SPs Matt Belisle and Josh Fogg; OF Ryan Freel; INF Andy Phillips; Cs Paul Bako, Javier Valentin, and Ryan Jorgensen (retired); IF/OF Jolbert Cabrera
Strengths: The Reds aren’t good enough for a playoff run yet, but it’s increasingly difficult to ignore them. They are well-stocked with cheap young hitters like RF Jay Bruce (22 in April), 1B Joey Votto (25), and Chris Dickerson (27 in April), and even some of their more tenured (and therefore costly – but potentially valuable trade chips) position players are still quite young – 3B Edwin Encarnacion is 26, and 2B Brandon Phillips 27. While too many of these bats are unproven or simply not there quite yet, and complementary “veteran” pieces like CF Willy Taveras and SS Alex Gonzalez aren’t going to help the lineup, it’s hard not to imagine the upside of Bruce, Votto, and Dickerson for 2011 or so. If the team invests in the right free agents once some of their bigger contracts are gone, they could very well overtake the Cubs and Brewers atop the NL Central. As it is, they’ve gotten some respectable reserve possibilities on minor league contracts – Jonny Gomes and Laynce Nix for outfield depth, veteran Daryle Ward at first base – to join a bench that already looked strong with Jeff Keppinger competing with Gonzalez for time at short and Jerry Hairston a possibility to platoon with Dickerson or to replace Phillips.
In a high-scoring ballpark, the Reds’ pitching doesn’t get the credit it should. While veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo no longer look like above average at the front of the rotation, leaving the Reds without any real ace, the team has several young starters who could emerge as #2 options, and already look to be solid options behind their older teammates. Edinson Volquez’s All-Star first half from 2008 was incredibly flukish, but he looks to have gotten past the long ball problems that plagued him in the minors (the walks are still there, but no worse than the control problems of numerous rookies), and even a repeat of his peripherals from his down second half would make him quite valuable. 23-year-old Johnny Cueto similarly fell off the radar after the first few starts of his rookie year, but already looks like a very nice #4. Making the starting depth all the more impressive is that the big league club has yet to see any major contributions from much-hyped prospect Homer Bailey, underhyped Matt Maloney, or trade acquisition Micah Owings, each of whom could prove to be useful as cheap back-of-the-rotation options this year.
Weaknesses: With so many young players, there’s bound to be a disappointment or two (Dickerson is a good candidate to fall short in 2009, though platooning him could help keep his numbers up); on the pitching staff, I’m inclined to believe that their depth is a good risk management strategy. But their offense could easily be a weakness, despite so many impressive young bats; I’ve focused on the great promise there without mentioning Bruce’s high ratio of strikeouts to walks, nor Votto’s high BABIP. Potential is not reality; the Reds have question marks just like anyone else, even if many of those question marks may lead to very good answers in the future.
Something of which we can be more certain: neither Gonzalez nor Taveras will contribute much of anything, and no club wants a quarter of its lineup to be almost automatic outs. Hernandez was a nice pickup for a team with nothing resembling a major-league catcher, but his bat saw a sharp decline the last two years, and despite a solid history behind the plate, he led all catchers in steals allowed with 99; if 2008 wasn’t a fluke in how quickly he’s aging, the Reds may have to rely on Ryan Hanigan despite the veteran’s presence. Encarnacion’s poor defense and lack of improvement at the plate in recent years are also a significant concern; while he’s still young enough to take his hitting to another level, his glove will keep him from being an above-average third baseman unless he does. If Walt Jocketty had been GM of this team for a few more years, I wouldn’t be as concerned about these potential shortcomings, but some of the contracts signed by his predecessor, Wayne Krivsky, give the team limited payroll flexibility.
My Stake: While I don’t like the two-year contract given to one-tool CF Willy Taveras, the speedster’s signing looks to be but a small bump in the road for new GM; the Hernandez acquisition filled a position of significant need at a negligible cost, the trade of a few months of 1B Adam Dunn for SP Micah Owings helped the rotation’s depth, and most of Cincy’s free agent signings are low-risk deals with decent – not pennant-winning, but still considerable – upside. All of this offsets the Willy Taveras contract quite a bit. The only real problem that I have with the Reds is the continuing presence of manager Dusty Baker, whose preference for veteran talent and stolen base attempts over the best available players and “base-clogging” players who have the temerity not to make outs may not fit particularly well with the Reds’ roster. Baker’s outspoken opposition to high-walk, low-speed players makes him one of my most intensely disliked managers, and enough to hold the Reds back several spots from where their front office and players might place them.
’09 Predictions: As the “strengths” section may have made clear, I’m quite bullish on the Reds’ youth movement. If I had to pick a dark horse team this year to make like the Rays and go from fifth place to the postseason, it would be Cincinnati. Realistically, however, I have to hedge my bets a bit and my (still very optimistic) call is that the 2009 Reds will win 80 games. But since I don’t see the Brewers or Cardinals as sure things to get over .500, I would not be at all surprised to see the Queen City get some national respect in a competitive push for the wild card, even if someone out of the East ends up taking it from them.
beautiful loser
February 24, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Graphs & Stats, Rooting Hierarchies | 3 CommentsTags: Cubs, Kevin Gregg, nameless comparisons, saves
10. Chicago Cubs (64.66% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 5
Added: RF Milton Bradley; RPs Kevin Gregg, Luis Vizcaino, Aaron Heilman, Jeff Stevens, Mike Stanton, and David Patton; C Paul Bako; 2B Aaron Miles; OFs Joey Gathright and So Taguchi
Lost: RPs Kerry Wood, Michael Wuertz, Bob Howry, and Jon Lieber; 2B Mark DeRosa; SPs Jason Marquis and Rich Hill; CFs Jim Edmonds and Felix Pie; 1B Daryle Ward; IF Ronny Cedeno; C Henry Blanco
Strengths: Despite the loss of Mark DeRosa, the Cubs boast one of the NL’s best lineups. Assuming the team treats Aaron Miles as an expensive backup, Mike Fontenot should take over at second and do a fine, if less homer-filled, job. RF Milton Bradley’s offensive abilities have been underrated due to his volatile temper, but assuming he can stay healthy while playing every day, he’ll be one of the NL’s best right fielders, if not at the very top of that list. 3B Aramis Ramirez, LF Alfonso Soriano, and reigning Rookie of the Year C Geovany Soto should all help the Cubs have one of the league’s elite offenses.
The Cubs boast one of baseball’s best rotations. While there are some health questions about Rich Harden, he has joined Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano to form one of the finest front three in all of baseball. While he’s rather pricey at $12 million, Ted Lilly complements them as a reliable fourth starter, leaving the final rotation spot open for either Chad Gaudin or lefty Sean Marshall, either of whom could be a fourth starter on a weaker team. Aaron Heilman may also get a shot at the rotation, but based on his struggles in relief last year, I’m inclined to believe it would be a short-lived mistake. With so many strong starters and power sidearmer Carlos Marmol sliding into the closer’s role, opponents may have to get their wins against the middle relief.
Weaknesses: What I said about opponents badly needing to beat the team in the 7th or 8th? That may not be so difficult. The team did an awful job of replacing four of their six most used relievers from 2008, as a team with their budget should not be forced to rely on Luis Vizcaino as anything other than the 12th man on the pitching staff, nor count on Aaron Heilman, at 30, to find the closer potential he was once thought to have but never reached. The team’s biggest relief pickup was Kevin Gregg, who is a useful pitcher but whose value was greatly inflated in two seasons with Florida by the almighty save. Consider these stat lines from National League relievers (FIP and xFIP from THT):
For more perspective, consider also the following (“svc” is MLB service time, as listed at Cot’s; saves are the total for the last two seasons):
It should now be obvious that Pitcher C is Kevin Gregg. Pitcher A, who looks roughly comparable to Gregg with the park-neutralizing xFIP, is Michael Wuertz, who was inexplicably traded to Oakland for two low-value prospects earlier this month. Pitchers B and D, respectively, are Joe Smith and Tyler Yates. Neither of these two may have been available to the Cubs, but that does not undermine my point: relief pitchers of Gregg’s caliber are not season-changing setup men (much less closers), and they should not be considered anything but a minor pickup even if they’ve closed in recent seasons.
While the lineup is very strong, it is not without its flaws. I’m not inclined to worry yet about CF Kosuke Fukudome’s second-half fade in 2008, as his walk rate and isolated power stayed fairly consistent and his falling batting average correlates strongly to a plummeting average on balls in play; while his torrid April wasn’t representative of his true ability, something resembling his May-June numbers would be perfectly acceptable now that he has moved out of right field. Bigger concerns in the lineup include 1B Derrek Lee, who has two years left at $13 million and is simply not the caliber of bat one wants at first on a playoff team, and especially SS Ryan Theriot.
Unless the Cubs do the unthinkable and start Miles over Fontenot at second base, the only bat of any real consequence on the Cubs’ bench will be 1B Micah Hoffpaiur. This and the bullpen’s lack of depth have redefined “shallow” so extremely that I no longer feel bad for my sympathy for the Dodgers.
My Stake: On the whole, the Cubs’ offseason deserves more scathing reviews than I’ve seen it receive. Their sole good move was the signing of Bradley (and the final year of the contract becomes a club option if there are injury issues), while the bullpen and bench were left to languish as useful role-players, like Ward and Wuertz, departed as free agents and others, such as Fontenot and Gaudin, moved into bigger roles without adequate heirs to their old jobs. Essentially giving away a solid reliever like Wuertz and inking $2 million-plus a year into a replacement-level player like Miles are indefensible moves, and trading starting depth like Marquis for such a marginal bullpen piece as Vizcaino seemed pointless.
On the other hand, the Bradley deal is of a greater magnitude than several small incompetences combined, and they robbed A’s GM Billy Beane when acquiring Harden and Gaudin last summer. And lest we forget: they are the Cubs; few teams get as much mileage from unending futility.
’09 Predictions: With the potential for a full season of Harden and hopefully a rebound from Fukudome, I’m not too worried about Ryan Dempster’s probable regression. I am, however, concerned that the team’s offseason acquisitions don’t cover their losses, and that concern is magnified because of just how many of those losses were in the bullpen, which is tasked with keeping the leads that the strong starting and offense will hand it. I still see the Cubs as the NL’s best club by a notable margin, but I don’t believe they can repeat last year’s 97 wins. I have them at 95 wins, but it wouldn’t shock me if they were to be one of the year’s bigger disappointments.
one second it was perfect; now you’re halfway out the door
February 23, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Diamondbacks
11. Arizona Diamondbacks (65.40% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 6
Added: SPs Jon Garland and Travis Blackley; 2B Felipe Lopez; Cs James Skelton and Luke Carlin; RPs Tom Gordon, Scott Schoeneweis, and Bobby Korecky; IFs Ryan Roberts and Josh Wilson
Lost: SPs Randy Johnson and Edgar Gonzalez; 1B/OF Adam Dunn; 2Bs Orlando Hudson and David Eckstein; RPs Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz; OF Jeff Salazar; IF/OF Chris Burke
Strengths: Despite losing Randy Johnson, the rotation likely remains the NL’s best. With a pair of aces in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the team could be a postseason nightmare if megaprospect Max Scherzer continues the dominance he has displayed since going pro in 2007. Scherzer had 66 strikeouts and 5 home runs in 56 innings, and has a track record as a homer-prevention machine; three of those long balls came at the low-humidity Chase Field and high-altitude Coors Field. Jon Garland and Doug Davis lack the flash of the team’s power trio, but are well above average at the back of the rotation. Should any of these five go down, the team has a little-known but very solid backup in 24-year-old Yusmeiro Petit, who has battled home run problems but has fine control and solid strikeout ability.
C Chris Snyder’s bat isn’t a lock to repeat the 16 homers of 2008, and I’m more than a little concerned by his strikeout total in what was considered by many a breakout year. But any team who has even an average offensive 28-year-old behind the plate who went all season without an error and threw out 31% of potential base-stealers has to be pleased with their catching situation. Along with 25-year-old Miguel Montero, who was rumored in connection with the Red Sox much of the winter, the team has a third intriguing young catching option in James Skelton, a Rule 5 draftee from Detroit. At 23, he is widely considered a defensive liability, but despite a high total of passed balls, he has been good at throwing out runners. If the team were to try him at second base or in the outfield, his lack of power could be a concern, but for now, he remains a player worth watching. The team has another interesting bench option in infielder Ryan Roberts, a non-roster invitee who has never been given much of a chance in the big leagues despite minor league numbers worthy of at least a bench spot. If the Diamondbacks ever give up on the announcer-beloved, “little things”-doing defensive option of Augie Ojeda, Roberts could be a very nice guy to have in reserve.
Weaknesses: While the pitching is strong and the bench has some nice options, there are problems throughout the lineup. Despite nice power and solid defense, CF Chris Young’s on-base percentage and strikeout rate are dreadful, and it’s tough to see why he was fast-tracked and kept in the majors. Similarly, RF Justin Upton’s unremarkable bat and bad defense should have spent more than fifteen games in AAA; if not for veteran OF Eric Byrnes falling off a cliff – production-wise, not a literal and tragic result of one of his unconventional routes to the ball – one has to think that the 21-year-old would still be a hyped prospect instead of a below-average regular.
Still, Young and Upton are young enough to at least be considered works in progress. The same defense cannot be granted to 1B Chad Tracy; while he is far from old at 28, he has five years of service time and has posted an above-average OPS only once. While he can blame knee problems for some of his declining production, there’s just no reason to believe that he should be anything more than the left-handed part of a platoon at first with LF Conor Jackson – and even average defense may be too much to ask, based on a rough partial season at first in 2008. Free agent signing 2B Felipe Lopez looks capable of providing an average glove, but his bat has been nothing special since a 2005 that looks more like a fluke with each passing season. While he’s a non-awful stopgap until the team finds someone better – or just entrusts Roberts with the job – he is certainly not worthy of the $3.5 million he’ll make. On the other side of the diamond, SS Stephen Drew, 26, and 3B Mark Reynolds, 25, are both bad defenders and have offensive track records that make them look unlikely to be major contributors. I prefer Drew thanks to the lower standard of offense expected from a shortstop, but even then, his glove is a liability. It will be interesting to see how much Brandon Webb is hurt by a poor infield defense handling the frequent ground balls he induces.
The bullpen features a couple of nice underrated pitchers in Chad Qualls and Tony Pena, but on the whole, the relief corps is largely unremarkable. That alone doesn’t make it a weakness, but the team seems overinvested in veterans – neither Tom Gordon nor Scott Schoeneweis is likely to contribute beyond what the team could have gotten from its AAA pitchers.
My Stake: Despite his fixation on certain players who are bench filler at best, such as Ojeda and 1B Tony Clark, Josh Byrnes was one of my favorite GMs not too long ago. But as well as keeping too many replacement-level-or-worse players in significant roles on the team, Byrnes has rushed players who appear unprepared for the big leagues while giving up on serviceable (at worst) talent like OF Scott Hairston and 2B Alberto Callaspo. While the team blamed its inability to retain 1B Adam Dunn and SP Randy Johnson on budget concerns, and have shown little interest in bringing back RP Juan Cruz, they somehow managed to find money for players like Clark, Schoeneweis, and Lopez, who will be lucky to contribute a fraction of a win. I won’t assail the preference of Jon Garland over Johnson because there’s an argument to be made favoring the durability of the former, but there’s a bizarre illogic plaguing Arizona’s offseason, and it has gotten hard to remember how Byrnes was held in such high esteem.
On top of my intellectual arguments against many of the Diamondbacks’ recent moves, there’s a great deal of emotional… indifference at best. The team’s 2007 overachieving was infuriating at the time and remains irksome, and living in Phoenix exposed me to a fan base that is more interested in between-innings scoreboard antics than the game itself – and apathetic enough not to sell out the 2007 NLCS. That they rank this high is something of an indictment of Baltimore’s track record and Florida’s inexcusable cheapness; it is largely a holdover of days past, when the front office deserved to be emulated, rather than to have its sanity questioned.
’09 Predictions: The sad thing about my disillusionment with my college hometown team is that I see the Diamondbacks as a very strong contender this year. If Eric Byrnes can recover and come close to even average offense, it could let the team move LF Conor Jackson back to first and put Chad Tracy into either a bench role or a platoon situation. While there are question marks, as discussed, I’m inclined to think that the incredible rotation will minimize the weight of the spotty middle relief, and that a young lineup will take advantage of a hitters’ park and see enough pleasant surprises to get them to 86 wins. At that point, they could very well win their division and let their three aces carry them deep into October.
the summer’s gone, and so are we
February 22, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Marlins
12. Florida Marlins (54.40% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 10
Added: RPs Leo Nunez, Kiko Calero, Jason Standridge, Brian Sanches, Scott Proctor, Zach Kroenke, Dan Meyer, Willie Collazo, and Jose Ceda; OF Jay Gibbons; 2B Emilio Bonifacio; SPs Mike Wood and John Koronka
Lost: 1B Mike Jacobs; LFs Josh Willingham and Luis Gonzalez; SPs Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson; RPs Joe Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Kevin Gregg, and Doug Waechter; Cs Paul Lo Duca and Matt Treanor
Strengths: As they so often do, the Marlins have some nice cheap commodities acquired in trades of more expensive players to teams not comfortable with baseball’s smallest payroll. As well as the aforementioned-by-implication SS Hanley Ramirez, 25, and SP Ricky Nolasco, 26, the team has non-trade-acquired 2B Dan Uggla and CF Cody Ross, both 28. While Uggla is now costly enough to be the team’s next major trade candidate, he’s also a nice offensive asset (and average defender) at second base. Ross’ value, having been moved from center to a corner outfield spot, comes largely from his defense; if he can provide even average output at the plate (the power is fine, the patience less so), it would be a nice boost for a very young team. Thanks almost entirely to Ramirez, who led shortstops in on-base percentage (.400), slugging (.540), and home runs (33), the lineup should be one of the NL’s better. At a ridiculously low payroll, that’s something for which GM Larry Beinfest should be proud.
Weaknesses: The Marlins lost an awful lot of talent in the offseason, and responded with a bunch of non-roster invitations to spring training for players highly unlikely to contribute more than a fraction of a win. The bullpen looks to have an impressive number of options for #4-5 guys, but little else; Matt Lindstrom and Leo Nunez should compete for saves, and while both are fine arms to have, neither looks like a very good closer. The bullpen could be okay if the shotgun approach finds a few one-year wonders, but will more likely be pretty awful. The rotation is similarly devoid of a clear #1 or 2 pitcher, particularly with Josh Johnson having missed most of two seasons around Tommy John surgery. While Ricky Nolasco’s breakout ’08 looks fairly legit, Chris Volstad is highly unlikely to repeat his 2.88 ERA; the flawed metric doesn’t point out his mediocre strikeout/walk rates, and his low home run rate looks flukish even with his high ground ball rate.
Even on a young and cheap team, having Jorge Cantu – with a career OPS+ of 102 – at first base would be a pretty awful offensive move (and Cantu’s glove may not even work out that well at first). The most apparent alternative would be putting him at third and Dallas McPherson at first, but McPherson’s bat has been similarly flat since coming to the majors, and his glove is a similar non-asset. Either, however, would be better than upsideless veteran Wes Helms.
Not-yet-22-year-old Cameron Maybin has been penciled in as the team’s center fielder, but while he impressed in a ridiculously small sample size last September, his enormous strikeout totals at AA makes clear to me that he is not yet ready for the big leagues. He could provide a little power and some speed, but the team would probably be better off throwing Alfredo Amezaga into the outfield than spending valuable service time on a great prospect who is far from ready to fulfill his potential.
My Stake: Looking at this team in more depth than I usually give to complete non-contenders, I can understand why fans are frustrated at the Marlins’ unwillingness to spend. It is simply mind-boggling that baseball allows this situation to continue. There is enough young talent that with even an extra $20 million of free agents – enough, by 2008 totals, to keep them the lowest payroll in the game – this club could reach .500; with a 25th-ranked payroll, they could be a favorite in the division. With a decent left fielder – Josh Willingham, anyone? – to push Ross back to center and delay Maybin’s promotion and an average first baseman (Mike Jacobs was not.), they could pick up a handful of wins. With any sort of free agent for whom there could be competition, they would likely reach .500. The world of hypotheticals, however, is the only place where Marlins fans are likely to see a fairly smart organization rewarded for its shrewdness. I don’t want to take my dislike of cheapness out on a smart front office, but one pair of transactions make me feel better about keeping the Marlins this low: the team refused to tender an $800,000 contract to reliever Joe Nelson, who was coming off a career year; they instead gave similar money to Scott Proctor, who had elbow surgery in October and has never had a single season as good as Nelson’s 2008. Cheapness is one thing, but preferring Proctor to Nelson with monetary factors and injury risk being comparable is insanity.
’09 Predictions: This is yet another Marlins team with too much young talent to really bash, but too little talent to really like. Because of the various holes on the club, and the decent possibility of another trade, I can’t give them too much credit in my prediction. But after realizing how close they are to being good, I’ve worked backwards a bit from my theoretical Marlins and decided that right now, this looks like a 76 win team; they overachieved based on their Pythagorean record in 2008, and lost a great deal of talent this winter, but there’s still enough youth and upside in the outfield and rotation that I can’t see them falling into a completely hopeless state.
we all have to fly someday
February 21, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Orioles
13. Baltimore Orioles (68.5% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 12
Added: SPs Rich Hill, Mark Hendrickson, Koji Uehara, John Parrish, and David Pauley; Cs Gregg Zaun and Chad Moeller; LFs Felix Pie and Ryan Freel; 3B Ty Wigginton; SS Cesar Izturis; 1B Chris Gomez; RP Brad Hennessey; OF Justin Christian; IFs Donnie Murphy and Jolbert Cabrera
Lost: SPs Daniel Cabrera, Brian Burres, and Garrett Olson; C Ramon Hernandez; RPs Lance Cormier, Randor Bierd, and Rocky Cherry; 1B Kevin Millar; OF Jay Payton; SSs Alex Cintron, Juan Castro, and Brandon Fahey
Strengths: Any discussion of what the Orioles are doing right has to begin with C Matt Wieters. 23 this May, Wieters had an impressive first season as a pro: splitting the year between high-A and AA, he walked more than he struck out, slugged 27 homers, and threw out better than a third of attempted base-stealers. A .383 average on balls in play suggests that he may not be quite the offensive juggernaut he appears, but considering the extra-base hits and AA Bowie not giving him any help, it’s understandable why the team could choose to call him up at midseason.
The team made a few cheap pickups from the Cubs, including SP Rich Hill for a player to be named and LF Felix Pie for low-level prospect William Henry Harrison (or something like that). While each has his problems, I’m always a fan of getting something for virtually nothing, and Pie, 24, needs only to be a fourth OF in an already impressive group including LF/DH Luke Scott, 30; CF Adam Jones, 23; and RF Nick Markakis, 25. Despite his strikeout issues, I’m inclined to believe he could even become a nice platoon partner for Jones.
With so many left-handed hitters, the team should be able to maximize the value of Ty Wigginton, letting the righty relieve Aubrey Huff at first base or Scott at DH. The lefty-heavy lineup also makes right-handed hitters like 1B Oscar Salazar and utility man Ryan Freel look like well-picked pieces to fill out the bench.
Even as he moves into his 30s, 2B Brian Roberts looks like one of the position’s elite, remaining a major asset in his final year before free agency. Considering how poor an everyday outfielder Ryan Freel would make, the Orioles should strongly consider dealing Roberts for some young pitching and letting the speedy 33-year-old take over at second; with Cesar Izturis starting at short for the next two seasons, it doesn’t seem like Baltimore should complain about lack of power from a middle-infielder. (Update: I shouldn’t have done these write-ups so far ahead of time. Roberts signed a four-year, $40 million extension on Thursday. The deal looks pretty good overall, as Roberts could easily command over $15 million in each of the next two years as a free agent, but – as with any long-term deal to a player over 30, frankly – I’m a little wary of how it could burden the club in the last year or two.)
Weaknesses: That is one bad pitching staff. The team made a nice move in taking a chance with Hill, considering his solid 2007 campaign for the Cubs; he could still very well prove to be a nice middle-of-the-rotation guy, and the O’s have nothing to lose by giving him a roster spot. Similarly, there’s little harm to moving Matt Albers to the rotation, even though he is far from convincing as a major leaguer. But where I cannot defend the team’s logic is with 34-year-old starters Mark Hendrickson and Koji Uehara. A team like Baltimore needs to focus on younger pitchers with upside – and while it’s perfectly reasonable, and wise, not to rush genuine prospects to the majors, it seems that the team would have been better off looking at minor league free agents for cheap, under-30 options. Like John Parrish’s minor league contract, Hendrickson’s deal is small enough to make him a good innings-eater, but investing $10 million in Uehara, who will either flop badly or leave as soon as he’s become a success, is the sort of spending that makes it hard to feel sorry for a “small budget” club. A team that gave 17 starts to Radhames Liz shouldn’t have balked at a few million bucks for the similarly-walk-prone-but-with-more-major-league-success Daniel Cabrera.
With the possible exceptions of Albers and 25-year-old Jim Johnson, who had a fine 2008 aided by a .257 BABIP, the bullpen is similarly lacking in upside. Most of the team’s middle relievers are older than one would like from pitchers with so little major-league experience, yet the team traded 25-year-old Randor Bierd to the Red Sox for David Pauley, whose upside seems to be a fringe #5 starter. While Bierd had walk and health concerns, the team has no problem keeping 28-year-old Dennis Sarfate, who walked a mind-boggling 62 batters in under 80 innings before undergoing shoulder surgery. In short, the Orioles are horribly devoid of pitching talent, yet seem to prefer older arms with less upside and the same flaws as younger, more promising pitchers.
My Stake: The Orioles have looked a lot smarter since Andy MacPhail took over as GM, but though in the AL East, as the Rays demonstrated, smart does not necessarily equate to likable. Still, they represent no real threat to the Sox in the standings, nor do they have any secondary factors working against them. I may have weighted too heavily the young outfield in my last ranking of the team, and several moves this winter – most notably their intent to use Freel as an outfielder and the signing of Cesar Izturis’s weak bat to a two-year, $5 million deal – make it clear that while they’ve improved, there’s still a long way to go before they can be considered truly shrewd. Still, it’s nice to see another team trending in a generally smart direction, even if there’s a long way to go.
’09 Predictions: While the Orioles’ front office has impressed me in acquiring high-upside position players these last couple of winters, their pitching leaves a great deal to be desired – both in the present and in the unambitious future. Combining with horrible pitching are weak infield options like batless SS Cesar Izturis, aging 3B Melvin Mora, and 1B Aubrey Huff, who looks to be a liability on defense. While the Orioles has enough young talent to surge toward .500 in a couple of years, they are far from another AL East worst-to-first story in the vein of the Rays; until they overhaul their pitching staff, they will continue to be a fourth- or fifth-place team. Primarily as the result of a bullpen that will struggle to hold leads, I just can’t bring myself to go higher than 72 wins here.
no justice in ontario
February 20, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Blue Jays
14. Toronto Blue Jays (57.5% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 18
Added: 1B Kevin Millar; SPs Matt Clement, Mike Maroth, and Brian Burres; Cs Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez; RP T.J. Beam; DH Randy Ruiz; OF Jason Lane
Lost: SPs A.J. Burnett and John Parrish; C Gregg Zaun; OFs Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson; IF Russ Adams
Strengths: Teams that spend big on free agent closers often seem to put too much faith in that one arm, but the Jays have a solid group of relievers around B.J. Ryan. Converted starter Scott Downs has been one of the better lefties in the league for the past two years, and the Jays’ usage of their relievers in 2008 would seem to indicate that they’re not averse to going with even more southpaws; LHPs Brian Tallet and Jesse Carlson joined Ryan and Downs as the team’s most-used relievers last year, and their production gives little reason to change that. From the right side, the team has enough depth with Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, Brandon League, and the walk-plagued Jason Frasor; after missing 2008 with shoulder surgery, right-handed reliever Casey Janssen will likely be given a shot at returning to the rotation despite a weak 2006 as a starter.
Along with standouts like 3B Scott Rolen and 2B Aaron Hill, the Jays have a surprisingly strong defensive team all around.
Weaknesses: An unremarkable lineup is getting old. Losing a player like Zaun hurts, particularly considering that the team’s new starting catcher, Rod Barajas, is 33 and has only one career season with an on-base percentage over .310. 32-year-old 1B Lyle Overbay doesn’t hit enough for his position, and SS Marco Scutaro lacks both power and, at 33, any real upside. Even one of the team’s best offensive weapons, CF Vernon Wells, can be viewed as problematic: at age 30, he is about to see his salary skyrocket thanks to an extension he signed after the 2006 season; he will make almost $100 million from 2010 through 2014, despite a downward trend in his power and below-average defensive skills.
The DH spot should be an interesting battle – the Jays could go with 21-year-old Travis Snider, a slugging left-hander who could hit 30 home runs but strike out 150 times, or may choose last season’s trade acquisition, righty Jose Bautista, who himself is a strikeout risk (albeit a slightly better bet to get on base) but lacks Snider’s power. The best solution would seem to be a platoon, but even then the team is left without the certain strong bat that one wants from a DH. If the team carries Ruiz – either along with or in place of Bautista as a right-handed DH option – they’ll be left with a bench that features one no-glove option as well as the all-glove, no-hit John McDonald. They’d likely be better off carrying Jason Lane for outfield depth.
After losing Burnett and Parrish, who was surprisingly strong in his six starts for the team, the rotation is a bit of a question mark for the Jays. Making matters worse is the elbow surgery of Shaun Marcum, who has become a nice third or fourth starter. The team will now likely give a spot to Dustin McGowan, himself recovering from shoulder surgery, and 24-year-old Jesse Litsch. Behind ace Roy Halladay, they could be a solid enough pair. But the fourth and fifth starters look to be anyone’s guess, with prospects and veterans alike setting up for a compelling spring competition.
My Stake: Toronto’s eye for cheap talent, particularly in the relief corps, is to be commended. And no matter how hard J.P. Ricciardi tries to make stat geeks hate him, he will always be perceived as a “Moneyball guy” because of his time working under Billy Beane in Oakland. The problem, however, is that apparently, Beane’s shit works neither in the playoffs nor in the AL East; risk management is a wise policy, but Ricciardi has been far too timid a GM in an environment that demands going big or going home. Instead of going after guys with real upsides, Ricciardi has contented himself with ill-advised extensions, unremarkable trade acquisitions like Jose Bautista, and starting players like Lyle Overbay; planning to be “pretty solid” is a good way to avoid the ignominy of 90-loss seasons, but a poor way to give fans any hope of breakout success. Were Ricciardi to model himself after Kevin Towers – whose Padres endured a horrible 2008 after a nice run above .500 on a small budget – and buy low on underrated players and the right veterans, the Jays could be quite a team. But this winter’s acquisitions, with the possible exceptions of Burres and Clement (neither of whom is a particularly great gamble), demonstrate how enamored he is with saving face rather than moving the team forward.
Still, he did manage to keep the team a fairly reliable third place when Tampa Bay was a pushover, and there’s something to be said for achieving reliable respectability, even if one prefers to see the team at least take a shot at improving rather than treading water every year. I love the city of Toronto, and the SkyDome– I mean, “Rogers Centre”– is the best roofed stadium I’ve had the privilege of visiting. But until they become more aggressive in overhauling the roster – or at least get back to their classic logo, which continues to have a retro charm that is far greater than the snooze-tastic mediocrity they currently use – I just can’t place them any higher than this.
’09 Predictions: The Jays have to hope that 2B Aaron Hill can return strong from post-concussion syndrome. He was having a down year when the injury ended his season in May, but his strong glove and relative youth, at 27, make him a better bet going forward than Joe Inglett, who was himself a fine fill-in last year. Even with Hill, however, there just isn’t enough left on this team after the injuries and free agent losses that followed a surprisingly strong 2008. Despite their quality bullpen and the front of the rotation, I can only give them 78 wins. If they do much worse than that, maybe Ricciardi will wisely realize that there isn’t much to lose in going after players like Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets, or Rocco Baldelli.
when the sky looked high and the world was simple
February 19, 2009 at 12:01 am | Posted in Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 3 CommentsTags: completely abandoning my senses, Dodgers, existential crossroads, Ned Colletti, oh god what have I done
It’s when I turn off my brain that I end up being (even more) long-winded. Go figure.
15. Los Angeles Dodgers (48.74% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 28
Added: SPs Claudio Vargas, Randy Wolf, and Shawn Estes; RP Guillermo Mota; IFs Mark Loretta and Hector Luna; C Brad Ausmus; OF Val Pascucci
Lost: LF Manny Ramirez; SPs Greg Maddux (retired), Derek Lowe, and Brad Penny; RPs Takashi Saito, Joe Beimel, Chan Ho Park, Scott Proctor, and Jason Johnson; 2B Jeff Kent (retired); SSs Nomar Garciaparra and Angel Berroa; CF Andruw Jones
Strengths: How do I frame this section without giving any credit to GM Ned Colletti, whose existence is basically the only reason the Dodgers aren’t in my top four? Sadly, I cannot avoid acknowledging the nuts found by this blind, cowboy-boot-wearing squirrel: two of seven Dodgers I consider to have noteworthy value were acquired since he took over the team in late 2005. 21-year-old SP Clayton Kershaw had significant walk problems in 2008, and is not yet a front-of-the-rotation starter, but the 2006 draft pick has always been an impressive strikeout artist and is, at worst, very cheap, high-upside back-of-the-rotation material for a major league club.
Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda had a nice “rookie” season in 2008, and looks to be a solid #3 starter in 2009. The problem, however, is that his contract will pay him $10 million this year and $13 million next year – not an utter albatross, but a considerable risk on an unspectacular player; it is this sort of careless spending that is a great part of my disdain for Colletti.
Fortunately, I’m done talking about things Colletti has done to help his team. Closer Jonathan Broxton (2002 draft) and setup man Hong-Chih Kuo (1999 free agent) keep the bullpen from sinking into a completely pathetic state, while C Russell Martin (2002 draft) is one of baseball’s finest backstops – and only 26. The 2003 draft produced the team’s only other good starter, Chad Billingsley, as well as CF Matt Kemp and RF Andre Ethier, both of whom were rumored to be trade bait once Colletti bogged down the outfield with costly veterans like Andruw Jones (since released) and the powerless, and frequently walkless, Juan Pierre.
Weaknesses: Ah, here’s the fun part. Having already touched on Pierre, who is due $28 million over the next three seasons as he heads toward his mid-30s, and Jones, who will make $21 million over the next six years for the contribution of playing elsewhere, I suppose Colletti’s worst error this offseason would be a good starting point. 3B Casey Blake, who was acquired from the Indians in July at the exorbitant price of 22-year-old catching prospect Carlos Santana and pitcher John Meloan, managed a paltry .313 on-base percentage in LA despite a helpful .316 average on balls in play. His defense ranges, depending on the metric, from bad to terrible, and at age 35, he’s not much of an investment to improve. None of this mattered to Colletti, however, who saw a bearded white guy who just seemed like he played hard; Blake was signed to a three-year, $17.5 million contract in December.
Now entrenched at third base for the Dodgers, Casey Blake has bumped fellow light-hitting infielder Blake DeWitt to second base, where he will most likely platoon with 37-year-old Mark Loretta and/or regress to the easily-replaceable hitter he has been throughout his career. But the complete offensive futility doesn’t stop there. While it’s very possible that the Dodgers will eventually bring back Manny Ramirez, the current state of left field is abysmal. The team’s options include Pierre, whose inability to hit as a corner outfielder has been documented many times; Delwyn Young, who has only really put things together for one good season in 2007; Jason Repko, whose high strikeouts and modest power do not bode well for a useful major league career; and Val Pascucci, who has some impressive AAA seasons but looks too slow and walk-prone for the Dodgers’ liking.
Beyond Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda, the Dodgers’ rotation is filled with question marks. Even if Jason Schmidt returns from shoulder problems, he’ll be 36 and it is completely unknown what he can offer. Injury- and homer-prone Randy Wolf, however, will likely keep a rotation spot as long as he remains healthy, as the team doesn’t want to throw $5 million away if he can just eat innings toward the back of the rotation. Unremarkable pitchers like Shawn Estes, Jeff Weaver, Eric Stults, and Claudio Vargas seem like the only things standing between prospect James McDonald and the #5 spot; while I don’t see McDonald as being ready for the bigs, a few injuries and underwhelming performances could very well force the Dodgers’ hand. Similar to the lack of depth in the rotation, the bullpen is essentially Broxton, Kuo, and a very underwhelming group competing for spots. Guillermo Mota, whose last useful season came in 2004, looks to have a spot assured thanks to a $2.35 million contract.
My Stake: I am a terrible, shallow person. I give love a bad name. I have no excuse for my behavior, and bring shame on my family for being so concerned by beauty and charm over intelligence and depth. Perhaps some day, I will mature as a person and learn that there’s more to love than superficial cravings untempered by concerns over character and wisdom. But no matter how dumb the Dodgers are, how inexcusably incompetent a GM Colletti is, I am unable to muster the antipathy I know I should feel in every fiber of my being; despite having perhaps the least competent front office in baseball, the historic franchise somehow managed to make it to the upper half of my rankings.
Blame it on the closing of Fire Joe Morgan, and resulting underexposure to detailed accounts of the crazed illogic that guides Colletti.
Hold culpable my confidence that Colletti will not hold his job for more than another year or two, even if a return by Ramirez lets them make the playoffs in a pathetic division.
Credit President Obama for helping me believe that yes I can! throw reason out the window and just hope for the best!
Or just assume that the Dodgers are “gateway morons” and I’m soon find “Lost” too “thinky” and just, darn it, not as fun! as “Rock Of Love,” which features charming women who are everything of which a man could dream. I truly dread the next development in my devolution to homo neanderthalensis plaschkeus, but damn it, that is one fine piece of stadium.
’09 Predictions: The best I can say for LA’s offseason is that Pascucci is a nice, if surprising, acquisition for a team that seems to value players in ways diametrically opposite my own. He should not, however, be a starter, nor should he be a backup to an inferior player, so there’s little chance that this move is for anything other than AAA depth. Because of the LF vacancy, as well as the pitching woes and the minimal value of this winter’s pickups, it’s very tempting to put this team below .500. However, I’m going to bank on Manny’s happy return and put them at 81 wins. Still, I can hope that that’s not enough, and that 2009 proves to be just the sort of letdown year to cost Colletti his job. I shall await regime change with bated breath.
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