what's on my mind grapes?

27. Tampa Bay Rays (16.69% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 29
Added: DH Pat Burrell; RPs Joe Nelson, Brian Shouse, and Lance Cormier; OFs Gabe Kapler and Matt Joyce
Lost: SP Edwin Jackson; OFs Rocco Baldelli, Eric Hinske, and Jonny Gomes; RP Trever Miller; DH Cliff Floyd
Strengths: To keep the Stones references coming, time is on their side.  The one-time Devil Rays have one of the youngest rotations in baseball, with all five starters under team control for at least four more seasons.  The rotation is dominant in its depth; even though rookie David Price’s home run rate at AA Montgomery is a point of concern, he looks to be a strong fifth starter.

The lineup is similarly young, albeit with less certain contract statuses.  Burrell gives the team a huge upgrade from Floyd at DH, joining 1B Carlos Pena, 3B Evan Longoria, and CF B.J. Upton to form the core of a potent lineup.  The only real uncertainty is how the playing time in right field will be divided; acquiring the lefty-hitting Joyce seems a vote of little confidence in Gabe Gross as a platoon partner for right-handed Kapler.

Whatever the case, the Rays’ outfield defense should be another major strength, despite the harsh criticism that the usually excellent-fielding Gross received during the playoffs. Whoever ends up the fifth outfielder should join an excellent bench including infielders Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar.
Weaknesses: There aren’t many, but reliever Troy Percival could be the most glaring problem with the team.  The 39-year-old was a major liability last year as the team’s closer, allowing nine home runs and 27 walks to his 38 strikeouts.  Because of his veteran status, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get the first shot at the closer’s job again, but in fact, he barely merits a roster spot among the deep ranks of relief talent collected by the Rays.

The talented relief corps is a motley crew, comprised largely of veterans and castoffs, and could very well remain a strength.  But it is also the most prone to injuries, with Nelson, Percival, and Grant Balfour having histories of DL stints, and Shouse joining the team at the age of 40. While the Rays have the depth to absorb a relief injury or two, the greatest hope for Rays non-fans would seem to be some regression from Balfour and J.P. Howell, coupled with injuries that force lesser talents like Cormier, Rule 5 draftee Derek Rodriguez, and Juicin’ James Houser into substantial roles.
My Stake: Good lord, this team annoys me.  There is no question in my mind that GM Andrew Friedman leads one of the smartest front offices in baseball, and their sabermetric wisdom is to be commended.  Yet my love of analytical techniques does not conquer all; the Rays are simply infuriating on so many levels that it’s impossible for my left brain to win any internal debate about the club.  From the exuberant homerism of TV play-by-play man (and former Yankee announcer) Dewayne Staats and the hideous dome (and the cowbells therein), to the sabermetrics-cause-damaging Dr. Stat and manager Joe Maddon’s “inspirational speaker” vibe, there is simply too much wrong with this team for my respect for Friedman to matter much.
‘09 Predictions: As good as the Rays were in 2008, it’s hard not to worry about them as a third contender in the AL East.  Still, there are plenty of good signs.  Dan Wheeler’s success was aided by a staggeringly low .195 average on balls in play, a number that figures to correct towards .300 even with a nice defense behind him and make him a considerably less useful option late in games; Percival’s issues were mitigated by posting a .169 BABIP.

From the batters, SS Jason Bartlett’s career .315 BABIP is substantially lower than his .332 2008 line, and C Dioner Navarro’s career .290 seems more reasonable an expectation than .318.  And despite an overall young team, Pena and Balfour will be 31, and 2B Akinori Iwamura 30 – some decline from 2008 levels is a reasonable expectation.  I’m throwing out a guesstimate of 88 wins – a number that represents a solid club that would contend in any other division, but does not pose a certain threat to the Yankees and Red Sox.