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23. New York Mets (12.11% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 15
Added: RPs Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Darren O’Day, Rocky Cherry, Kyle Snyder, and Elmer Dessens; SPs Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding, and Casey Fossum; OFs Jeremy Reed, Bobby Kielty, and Cory Sullivan; IF Alex Cora
Lost: SP Pedro Martinez; OFs Moises Alou, Trot Nixon, and Endy Chavez; RPs Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, Luis Ayala, and Scott Schoeneweis; 2B Damion Easley
Strengths: While Rodriguez’s much-hyped 2008 was actually a bad year for the closer (declining strikeouts, continuing to have a worrisome walk rate, his worst FIP and xFIP in five years), he, along with Putz, gives a considerable boost to a much-maligned bullpen.

3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes make the left side of the infield the best in baseball, and each will be only 26 this season.  While older – soon to be 32 – CF Carlos Beltran offers similar value as a defensive and offensive weapon; while pricey, his contract should be perfectly acceptable in its final three years, even allowing for modest decline.
Weaknesses: Well, certainly not the bullpen.  After years of criticism and a couple late-season fades, GM Omar Minaya finally addressed the issue by taking on half of the closers from the AL West.  On top of that, he seems to have decided to throw a couple of Rule 5 draftees, along with the holdovers from last season, at the wall, and enough talent will likely stick that the problem will be fixed, even though it has not been the most efficient solution (particularly considering the walk issues of several of the incumbent relievers and Green).

After that, however, the team’s pitching is more of a question mark despite the rotation’s strength in 2008.  If veteran Freddy Garcia can stay healthy – an iffy proposition – some of the problem will be mitigated, but if not, the team will trust as its fifth starter Tim Redding, whose home run woes and low strikeout rates didn’t prevent a $2m contract, or lefty Jon Niese, who seems highly respected as a prospect despite a thoroughly unremarkable minor league career.  I am not yet sold on John Maine as a front-of-the-rotation guy, and 25-year-old Mike Pelfrey’s breakout year featured an abnormally low number of outfield flies clearing the fence – a sign that his home run rate was deceptively low.  Pelfrey and Maine could be fine in a deeper rotation, but recently re-signed Oliver Perez will have to pitch well to let them act as the #3 and 4 starters they should be.  Perez, despite a 3-year, $36 million contract, is not the top-tier starter as which he seems to be perceived.  To demonstrate, I shall use a comparison made by David:

• Starter #1: 3.8 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 2008; average of 3.5 BB/9 and  1.3 HR/9 in 2006 and 2007.  2008 FIP/xFIP: 4.57/5.05
  
• Starter #2: 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 2008; average of 4.6 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9 in 2006-2007. 2008 FIP/xFIP: 4.69/5.02

Starter #2 is Perez.  Starter #1 is Jason Marquis.  While Perez’s strikeout rate is greater than Marquis’, and his relative youth (at 27) may give him more long-term value, the walks and home runs are a very real problem – and as the xFIP indicates, someone with Perez’s fly ball rate was lucky to allow as few home runs as he did in 2008.

A generally potent offense will be hindered by light-hitting 2B Luis Castillo (to Castillo’s credit, he stole 17 bases and was caught just twice last year; while his speed may be declining, his selectiveness is to be praised).  The Mets signed fellow batless wonder Alex Cora to back him up, but if they hit as poorly as all statistics indicate they will, the team could consider going to prospect Daniel Murphy.  Murphy, generally an outfielder, played second base in the Arizona Fall League despite defensive shortcomings at third earlier in his career.  But if Castillo, who is signed through 2011 at $6 million a year, repeats his 2008 performance, and Cora reverts to his ‘05-’07 level, the team could well decide that the defensive dropoff is worth Murphy’s comparably strong bat (by no means does he look like a hitter worthy of LF or 1B, but it doesn’t take much to be a better offensive weapon than Luis Castillo).
My Stake: I used to be quite fond of the Mets.  Edgardo Alfonzo had some really great years (in retrospect, his value in ‘97 and ‘98 was quite limited at third base; only as a second baseman was he a significant asset), Turk Wendell’s awesomeness was impossible to deny, and most importantly, they were the best bet in a division that included both teams to defeat my hometown Indians in the World Series (it took over a decade for me to get over the Braves’ ‘95 win, and TBS gave me a nice network for schadenfreude; while more surprising and dramatic, the Marlins’ victory was forgiven when they took down the Yankees in ‘03).

But now… the Mets are pitiful, and I’m not talking about their high-profile division losses to the Phillies in recent years.  Considering the contracts of Perez, Castillo, Redding, and Cora, on top of past follies with Schoeneweis and Guillermo Mota, the team seems to have zero comprehension of free agent value.  While they will never be the Evil Empire, their willingness to throw money at aging and overrated players resembles some of the worst Yankee offseasons.
‘09 Predictions: While the acquisitions of Putz and Rodriguez certainly bolster the bullpen, it still hurts that closer Billy Wagner will likely miss the season after Tommy John surgery; his 47 innings in 2008 were quite valuable.  On top of that, the team could very well see a decline in production from LF Fernando Tatis, whose .343 BABIP in ‘08 is considerably higher than his .309 career mark.  Now 34, there’s little guarantee that he’ll continue the career revival he saw last year.

I’m going to say that the upgrades to the back end of the bullpen will be canceled out by a few players regressing, and the team ends up, again, at 89 wins.  I’ll also predict that when they manage this dramatic non-improvement, Rodriguez will be praised on ESPN for bringing stability to the bullpen.