what's on my mind grapes?

who’ll stop the rain?

6. Seattle Mariners (76.43% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 24
Added: 1Bs Russell Branyan, Chris Shelton, and Mike Carp; CF Franklin Gutierrez; LFs Ken Griffey Jr. and Endy Chavez; RPs David Aardsma, Tyler Walker, Eric Hull, Tyler Johnson, Jason Vargas, Luis Pena, Tracy Thorpe, Luis Munoz,  and Jose Lugo; SP Garrett Olson; SS Ronny Cedeno; IFs Callix Crabbe, Reegie Corona, and Chris Woodward; DH Mike Sweeney
Lost: RPs J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jake Woods; LF Raul Ibanez; CF Jeremy Reed; IFs Tug Hulett, Miguel Cairo, and Luis Valbuena; OF/IF Willie Bloomquist; SP R.A. Dickey
Strengths: The Mariners make up for some of their deficiencies at the plate by carrying a group of strong defenders – C Kenji Johjima, 3B Adrian Beltre, CF Franklin Gutierrez, and RF Ichiro Suzuki – with only SS Yuniesky Betancourt and LF Ken Griffey Jr. representing significantly bad gloves. If Endy Chavez gets any playing time over Griffey in left, it would make one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.

Beyond SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle’s on-field strengths are rather tenuous. 1B Russell Branyan had a great 2008, and generally puts up enough walks and home runs to compensate – and then some – for his lousy contact rate. But he’s 33 and hasn’t spent a full season in the American League since 2001, so it’s tough to put complete faith in the slugger. Similarly, Beltre’s bumpy career path gives me less faith in him than I might another 30-year-old with decent component stats. The final player who might merit mention, SP Erik Bedard, is returning from shoulder surgery, having been out since July after being acquired at a high cost in young players last February.

It is, however, worth noting the overhaul the team went through this offseason. GM Jack Zduriencik, who was the Director of Scouting for the Brewers when they acquired much of their young core, carries a track record that should give fans hope, and I’m also impressed by his willingness to deal a valuable player like Putz – and come out ahead with a younger player (Gutierrez) with less service time (along with a non-negligible minor leaguer in Ezequiel Carrera). Between the new front office and a fresh coaching staff, the Mariners seem to have committed to rebuilding, a decision that would have been even more useful if made by Zduriencik(hereafter simply “Zd”)’s predecessor before trading for Bedard.
Weaknesses: Unfortunately for Mariners fans, Zd inherited a pretty weak team. The bullpen looks to be collection of castoffs from other teams (and their AAA affiliates), and the fact that I listed so many relievers who the team invited to spring training is very much a testament to how few strong incumbents the team has. The rotation is more set, but the options aren’t much better. It will be interesting to see what happens with pitcher Brandon Morrow, who would prefer to start and, despite control problems, looks to have as much upside as anyone on the roster who isn’t named Felix.

As I alluded with my cautious praise of Beltre and Branyan, the lineup is sorely lacking in sure things other than the futility of Yuniesky Betancourt. There’s little of note on the bench – either in young talent or in players who can help this year – and it’s hard to see any current position players other than Gutierrez and OF Wladimir Balentien being significant parts of the next competitive Mariners team. Jeff Clement could join those exceptions if he can get back to catching, but if his defense forces him to stay in a DH/1B role, he’s unlikely to be much of an asset. As I’ve said before, Bill Bavasi ran this team into the ground, and getting the Mariners back on track is not going to be easy.
My Stake: Zd has already made quite an impression as far as GM intelligence rankings go, and while a lot of his moves have been of smaller magnitude, I really liked his willingness to ship out Putz. Engaging in a three-way trade that involves giving up an All-Star pitcher, along with other majors-ready talent, takes guts – and a team as decimated as the Mariners were by Bill Bavasi’s reign will not get back on track with a GM too timid to move popular players. And as a risk-averse individual, I have particular admiration for GMs who are willing to take wise gambles where I might lack the courage to part with a known commodity.

I must acknowledge, however, that there seems to be a honeymoon period for new GMs wherein they look brighter than they ultimately prove to be. Whether it’s just the flaw of a small sample size or rival GMs not taking them as seriously as they should, it seems that rookie GMs often overperform and set expectations too high just before regressing with some less-than-awesome moves. We’ve seen it with Arizona’s Josh Byrnes and Boston’s Theo Epstein – who remains a favorite, but whose early hype didn’t predict an inability to resist overpriced free agent shortstops and Mark Kotsay – and it may be starting with Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman – who also still looks very smart overall, but whose offseason has featured several veteran relievers costing the team younger pitchers with greater upsides. The last few Next Big Things In Brilliant GMs have tended to turn out, well, human, so the deification of Jack Zduriencik seems foolish and premature. I’m putting more proven GMs ahead of him for now, though if he keeps doing what he’s doing, it’ll be tough to hold him back, especially considering my fondness for the city of Seattle and the above-average Safeco Field.
’09 Predictions: The big question facing the Mariners is how important it is to post a decent season after disappointing unfair expectations last year; if they’re willing to write off 2009 entirely and accept outcry from the fan base, they could make some nice trades by the deadline – Branyan, Beltre, Johjima, and even Ichiro could be moved, and some of the team’s older pitchers might look attractive to plug holes created by injury and simply insurance against attrition as the summer heats up. The Mariners, however, don’t have the bench depth of a team like the Nationals, and trading significant pieces could keep the team from improving much on last year’s 67 Pythagorean wins. It would be the right move, because there’s not enough of a core here that a full rebuilding can be expected in just one or two years, but it could prove something of a litmus test as to just how gutsy Zd wants to be in his rookie year as GM. For now, however, I’ll put the Mariners at 72 wins; I don’t think they have to repeat last year’s futility, but their long-term interests might make it worthwhile to suffer 100 losses while restocking the farm.