what's on my mind grapes?

2. Cleveland Indians (95% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 2
Added: 3B Mark DeRosa; RPs Kerry Wood, Joe Smith, Juan Salas, Matt Herges, Greg Aquino, Jack Cassel, and Vinnie Chulk; 2B Luis Valbuena; SPs Kirk Saarloos, Carl Pavano, and Tomo Ohka; IF Andy Cannizaro
Lost: RF Franklin Gutierrez; RPs Tom Mastny, Juan Rincon, Brendan Donnelly, and Scott Elarton; SP Bryan Bullington
Strengths: If one can assign primary responsibility to the bullpen (rather than dumb luck or the magical presence/aura of the manager) when a team underachieves its run differential, the Indians should be in far better shape than last year, when their 85-77 Pythagorean record didn’t get them over .500 in the actual standings. Of the team’s offseason losses, only Juan Rincon pitched well in 2008, and only Tom Mastny looks like a real mistake to lose. But Kerry Wood, if he stays healthy, could be the team’s best closer in a decade, while smaller names like Joe Smith and Juan Salas could provide crucial help in front of Jensen Lewis and lefty Rafael Perez. If 24-year-old Edward Mujica can finally make good on the promise he showed in the minors, or Rafael Betancourt can keep the ball on the ground more, the bullpen could be the Indians’ greatest asset. Long-hyped rookie Adam Miller could also get his chance this year, giving the team yet another option; with so many relievers, an effective Betancourt could become trade bait.

A respectable crop of spring training invites could make the situation all the more intriguing – Salas, Smith, and Lewis all have options remaining, which could let someone like Matt Herges eat some relief innings and keep the young arms fresh late in the year. The same strategy could help rookies like David Huff and Scott Lewis ease into the rotation if Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes perform respectably early on. And while Cliff Lee’s Cy Young season came out of nowhere, it’s hard to see anything fluky in the component stats. The pitching staff should easily be the best in the division.

The team’s offensive core has remained relatively unchanged, for better or worse. Behind the plate, it’s certainly for better – Victor Martinez’s stock took a hit thanks to an injury-ruined 2008 campaign, but he’s still one of the better offensive catchers in baseball, and his defense has greatly improved since his 100-steal-allowing 2006. He’ll be backed up by Kelly Shoppach, who capitalized on V-Mart’s injuries to lead AL catchers in home runs while playing in 112 games. Also seeing a breakout 2008 was RF Shin-Soo Choo, perhaps finally realizing the potential many have seen in him through his long career in the minors – though despite spending seven years before getting a real opportunity in the bigs, he’s only 26, and could be a fine option for years to come if he can get out of his military obligations in Korea. It is, however, worth noting that both Shoppach and Choo posted abnormally high averages on balls in play in 2008 (.357 and .367, respectively), which may signify a disproportionate number of lucky singles inflating their stats. Still, it’s likely that power-hitting SS Jhonny Peralta and MVP candidate CF Grady Sizemore will find plenty of help in the lineup.
Weaknesses: Every team has question marks, but the Indians are full of them – in crucial spots. Pavano has been a giant injury risk in recent seasons, but was overrated even before then, and it’s extremely unlikely that he’s a better pitcher now, at 33, than he was in a forgettable half-season in 2005 (his last time as a pitcher of any consequence in the majors). While the team has enough young talent to get by without him, I greatly fear that even if he’s healthy, he’ll be ineffective but overstay his usefulness to prove that signing him wasn’t a mistake. Likewise, homer-prone Anthony Reyes is a poor bet to be anything more than an adequate #5 in the AL, but he’s out of options and may get many more innings than he should simply because the team wants to hang onto him. The same applies, to a lesser extent, to bullpen veterans like Herges; the team’s impatience with, and ultimate sale of, Tom Mastny would seem to bode ill for any young reliever who gets off to a slow start. In short, their expected pitcher usage looks more like a low-risk, non-contending team that is trying to look respectably mediocre, rather than a contending club with a strong farm and prospects who are ready to contribute.

… and then there’s Garko. For a team that has soured so quickly on certain former prospects, the Indians have an inordinate amount of faith in a guy who never came close to a dominating year at AAA. That the team continued to try him as a catcher in the minors should make clear that they know his bat is very weak for a first baseman, yet they’ve given him enough rope to hang the club’s offense in the big leagues. Garko’s only year resembling an average major-league first baseman was 2007, and a .320 BABIP from a slow guy should have been a warning sign; when his power dipped considerably in 2008, it was no fluke. The team needed to find an alternative in July; even now, they’re only discussing the possibility of moving him to left field and putting Martinez at first. While I approve any course of action that would give more playing time to Shoppach, Garko is 28 and a lousy defender. There’s no reason he should be considered anything but an insurance policy should LF Ben Francisco – a vastly superior defender to Garko – fail to hit, and there’s no excuse – in a buyer’s market, no less – for the team failing to bring in a free agent left fielder or first baseman.

Outside of the gaping holes in left field and first base, the Indians’ only real problem in the lineup is DH Travis Hafner. Just a few years ago, Pronk looked like the next great designated hitter, surely Bronx-bound upon free agency. But he hasn’t been the same player since 2006, and is an enormous question mark as he comes back from shoulder surgery. He could still come back strong, and one can imagine the Indians having a frightening lineup if he returns to form, but one-dimensional players don’t tend to age well in their thirties. With deep pitching and a very solid offense, the Tribe shouldn’t have to count on much from Hafner to contend, but they’re unlikely to play deep into October unless he can beat the odds and rebound well. Since he’s making over $10 million in each of the next four seasons, the franchise’s long-term strength could pivot on how his return goes.
My Stake: I’m a Cleveland native who has finally returned home, and the voice of Tom Hamilton is a summer tradition that will never get old. The Indians have recovered amazingly from an injury-plagued year and the trade of CC Sabathia to get right back into contending form on a small budget, and GM Mark Shapiro continues to be among baseball’s best. They’ve fallen to a solid #2 status, however, thanks to two factors: my Red Sox-devoted 2008, and the Indians’ continual failure to put themselves over the top. The former is a topic for tomorrow’s post, so for now, I’ll focus on the very glaring shortcomings of a bright franchise for whom I have a great deal of respect; these mistakes should not be taken as more severe than those of other teams, but they are damning enough to make a clear demarcation between my top two teams and how they conduct their business.

With questions about the team’s left field situation, and the appealing possibility of moving Martinez to first, the team didn’t seem to do itself any real favors by dealing OF Franklin Gutierrez; while Joe Smith is a big piece for the bullpen, the trade doesn’t look like a great value move. Similarly, while Kerry Wood could give the team a great closer, he is a huge injury risk. I wouldn’t want the team to avoid a player due to injury history alone, but for a franchise that claims it can’t compete with larger markets, it seemed awfully silly to give Wood the second most money of any Indian in 2009. The only Tribesman who will be paid more? Travis Hafner, whose own injury ought to serve as a cautionary tale to a smaller-budgeted club.

I appreciate that the Indians decided to focus on the bullpen thanks to some 2008 issues, and it’s hard for me not to feel good about the results. But they’ve gone about this restructuring in a rather inefficient way, and it would seem that a team in Cleveland would have been almost uniquely able to foresee the decline in this winter’s free agent market. In giving so much to Wood, as well as signing Pavano instead of trusting their young arms, the team has demonstrated that it is, in fact, capable of signing free agents, and made it hard to sympathize when they “couldn’t afford” 1B/LF options like Russell Branyan, Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Bobby Abreu (all of whom will make $5 million or less in 2008), or Pat Burrell (a bargain at $16 million over 2 years). The move that would have erased the team’s only glaring flaw could have been made for as little as $2 million, and this negligence could end up being fatal for the 2009 Tribe.  The Indians seem frighteningly similar to the Blue Jays, albeit with a better farm: they’re smart enough, but infuriatingly complacent and unwilling to push for a title.
‘09 Predictions: Despite their shortcomings and mistakes, the Indians have a great young core and look to be the best team outside of the AL East in 2009. No one facet of the team is great, but their bullpen could be very good, and the depth of starting pitching is impressive; it’s tough not to feel optimistic about a team with so many young arms on the brink of major-league careers. If Hafner’s bat gets back to even its 2007 level, the lineup – although a bit heavy on lefties – could be a force with which to be reckoned. And if – dare I say it? – they add one more hitter to keep Garko on the bench, the Indians could very well end up in the ALCS for the second time in three years. For now, I’m putting them at 88 wins. That may be a bit high for a team with so many question marks, but I hate banking on injuries even more than I hate my casual predictions being wrong.