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2011 National League Predictions

Because I have more work hours than a year ago, and because I’ve slowly resigned myself to the imprecision of win projections, this year’s season preview is sticking to merely divisional rankings. If I get them all right, I’ll have proven myself ready for the next step, and will do a rigorous qualitative set of predictions for 2012. Let’s not hold our collective breath.

NL East
In light of the strength at the top and the very deep flaws at the bottom, some would dismiss 2011 as another easy playoff berth for Philadelphia. But the division title looked to be competitive coming into spring, and has only become more interesting since…
Phillies: For all the talk about an historically strong rotation – which is completely merited and the reason they’re in first here – I think it’s worth noting that even before Brad Lidge went down with a rotator cuff injury, there were questions about Philly’s bullpen depth that made the division closer than a lot of analysts would recognize. Factoring in the injuries of Chase Utley and Domonic Brown, the Phils’ lineup now features Ben Francisco and Wilson Valdez on a daily basis. It’s an opening for the Braves, but it will still be difficult to get past a trio of legitimate aces and #4 starter Roy Oswalt.
Braves: I have an irrational tendency to underrate Dan Uggla’s value, but regardless, he may be the shot in the arm that the offense has long needed. I have little doubt that he’ll be well complemented by Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann; just how competitive Atlanta can be in 2011 may weigh more on secondary pieces: if Nate McLouth can rebound from an injury- and BABIP-damaged 2010 campaign and Martin Prado can up his offensive game enough to fit in left field, the Braves may be able to capitalize on Philadalphia’s weaknesses. They lack the dominant starters of their rivals up north, but that’s no knock on Tommy Hanson and (if healthy) Jair Jurrjens – the Braves have a solid rotation and several worthy closer candidates in the back of their bullpen.
Marlins: The Marlins are a young team that, even at my most optimistic, isn’t going to able to keep up with the division’s leaders. But a very impressive lineup could conceivably make a real run at the wild card if the team trades for one more bat to put Donnie Murphy or Omar Infante back on the bench, and the rotation is actually quite sound behind Josh Johnson, including Ricky Nolasco and a motivated Javier Vazquez. In any other division, I would really like the Marlins as a legitimate sleeper candidate to win the division; here, I see the upside as being maybe 85 wins and a shot at the wild card should Atlanta have a rash of injuries.
Mets: Without Johan Santana to give them one past-his-prime solid starter, the Mets instead will count on R.A. Dickey as something of a novelty act; as legitimately good as he was in 2010, and as fun as knuckleballers are, it’s a sad state of affairs that the 36-year-old is the most interesting part of a staff that is rounded out by unremarkable former prospects (Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese) and low-risk injury recoveries (Chrises Capuano and Young). The offense looks to be solid (at worst; there’s a lot of high upside guys in the lineup), but no team hits enough to make up for this laughable pitching.
Nationals: One wonders what this club could look like if only Stephen Strasburg would suck it up and pitch through a torn elbow instead of getting surgery like a wuss. But ultimately, with or without an ace, this is what a bad baseball team looks like. Washington may very well outpitch the dreadful Mets, but their lineup cannot be carried by Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman alone. For all the attention on Werth’s signing, the Nationals lost both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham from a team that was third-last in runs scored in 2010. A few nice bullpen arms aren’t going to get them out of last place.

NL Central
This is the division that really threw me, and the one most likely to ruin my chances of correctly predicting standings. The top three could all conceivably win the division, but there’s also intrigue at the bottom, where I really believe we’ll see a changing of the hapless, mismanaged guard.
Reds: It’s tough to have a great deal of faith in a team with so many young players, but I think that the amount of talent here outweighs the uncertainties. Beyond Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs, the Reds have Juan Francisco and Chris Heisey as nice bench pieces/backups, and there should be enough here to help Joey Votto and Scott Rolen. The pitching is more about their depth of young #2/3 starters and setup men than aces or strong closers, but I just think there’s too much talent to deny the incumbent the top spot in the division. I will, however, caution that Francisco Cordero and Aroldis Chapman need to be on short leashes that Dusty Baker may not believe in – Cordero was anything but closer-like in 2010 with increasing walks and declining strikeouts at age 35, and I don’t think that Chapman’s brief stint in the bigs gave an accurate representation of his ability to throw strikes.
Brewers: Milwaukee strikes me as something of a mirror image of the Reds’ approach – where Cincy is stocked with solid contributors but short on superstars, the Brewers focus on a few studs surrounded by a cast of scrubs. The bottom of the lineup (Mark Kotsay, Yuniesky Betancourt, and George Kottaras) undermines the intimidation of Braun-Fielder in the middle, and Zack Greinke landing on the DL already calls attention to just how much the team will be counting on the likes of Chris Narveson and Randy Wolf. When you can look at a team and say, “boy, it was a good thing they picked up Sergio Mitre,” they clearly didn’t put enough thought into rounding out their roster before spring.
Cardinals: With Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals might have pushed past the Reds at the top of the division. But now, the rotation will count on a full season from Jaime Garcia, a successful move from the bullpen for Kyle McClellan, and getting something useful out of Kyle Lohse. It’s a tall order, and a bullpen anchored by Ryan Franklin’s pitch-to-contact closing isn’t going to make things any easier. There may not be a right way to build a good bullpen, but looking at the cast of arms in St. Louis, there is a very wrong way to do so. Ultimately, a very good lineup is unlikely to do enough to bail out the pitching, even with Colby Rasmus finally looking like a major contributor.
Cubs: I think that this team is widely underrated going into 2011, as the addition of Carlos Pena helps offset an aging lineup. Geovany Soto has put 2009 behind him, and Aramis Ramirez should bounce back all right from a lousy BABIP in 2010; he’s not so old I see a cliff-like dropoff as likely. On the other hand, Pena can’t help a defensively-challenged roster, and a shallow bullpen is apt to blow a lot of leads before Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall ever get the ball. I could see Chicago overtaking a stumbling club from the top three, but not managing to win the division over so many teams that have more reliable production.
Pirates: There is an awful lot of offensive talent on the Pirates; I could honestly see this lineup contending for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, a lot of these hitters are also poor defenders, and that spells disaster for a rotation that looks at the Mets and sighs, “…if only…” The bullpen is surprisingly decent, but the fact that I see them getting out of the NL Central cellar is more a reflection of how bad the Astros are than it is a vote of confidence in Pirates GM Neal Huntington’s slow progress.
Astros: A lot of the time, a mismanaged franchise will manage to maintain respectability through high payroll, homegrown talent, or dumb luck. The Astros are not such a team. One only need glance at their lineup to start seeing the issues: Chris Johnson is not going to repeat his .387 BABIP of last year, when he still only got on base at a .337 clip; Bill Hall should not be a starter, and at second base, his defense is likely to compound the damage of his subpar bat; Angel Sanchez is an even more comedically useless former Red Sox infielder. Neither his minors nor extended MLB stint numbers say Brett Wallace is ready to bring his all-bat game to the bigs, but he figures to be the team’s starter at first base. Even if Carlos Lee rediscovers his swing, this is likely to be baseball’s worst lineup. I’ve heard some positivity about the pitching staff, but… why? They have four respectable starters (only Wandy Rodriguez would be more than a #3 on a good team), but are ultimately overpaying an okay closer to protect leads they won’t have. This is the most thoroughly bad team in baseball, on field and in abstractions; there’s no “should have been better” situation or statistical flukes explaining or mitigating Houston’s failures.

NL West
It’s probably the influence of a Coloradoan as one of my strongest influences in talent evaluation, but I’m bucking the popular trend and not seeing the Giants repeat here.
Rockies: I really like the Rockies’ lineup from top to bottom, and unlike the Giants, their hitters are more trustworthy in the field. Pitching in Denver will always be suspect, but there is a wealth of little-known talent behind Ubaldo Jimenez; if you need a reason to look again at the Rockies’ bullpen, consider the 92 innings of 2.78 xFIP that Matt Belisle gave them last year.
Giants: For all the attention that the pitching staff (deservedly) gets, this is actually a very nice lineup, and one that could get better with prospect Brandon Belt moving to the majors. As alluded, however, hitters like Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff, and Miguel Tejada are one-dimensional talents who will not help the pitching staff out in the field, where only Andres Torres is remarkable. I really can’t find a bad thing to say about the bullpen, but ultimately, I have faith that Brian Sabean will not be able to make it through another season without doing something to hurt his club’s chances.
Dodgers: Once again, there’s a considerable deal of upside to the lineup, with Matt Kemp looking for a bounceback season after 2010, and James Loney still young enough to take his power to another level. But an early injury to Casey Blake could slide Juan Uribe to third, and give the batless Ivan DeJesus, Jr. a starting gig; the team already figures to suffer from a second-generation production void in left fielder Tony Gwynn, Jr. Similarly, Jon Garland already hitting the DL could be a substantial blow to the rotation. I do really like the back end of the bullpen, despite the fact that it includes a human male named “Kenley.” Healthier, this team would probably push the Giants to third; right now, that prediction seems to be an overreach. It’ll be nice to see the rivals facing off to start the season, and perhaps make me consider eating my words very quickly.
Padres: Obviously, San Diego took a major hit when they traded Adrian Gonzalez, the face of the franchise and their only elite hitter. Regardless, I don’t think they’re as awful as they could be – the thirtysomething mediocrities of the lineup are balanced out by some solid younger players who may still improve, and I’m inclined to think that they’ll have a decent long-term replacement for Gonzalez in Anthony Rizzo. The pitching staff will again be a strength, with a bullpen that would be dominant in any ballpark and a rotation that steps up to looking impressive by playing half its games in the cavernous Petco Park. If the injury to Mat Latos isn’t severe, they should be able to stay near .500 – but that is a genuine “if,” as Latos shouldered a heavy workload last year for someone his age, build, and experience.
Diamondbacks: I used to be a huge Kevin Towers fanboy in his time as the Padres’ GM, but boy, he has done very little to address the problems that are abundant in Phoenix. Aside from signing Russell Branyan, the D’backs’ offseason was a bizarre performance of targeting mediocre talents like Willie Bloomquist, Geoff Blum, and Xavier Nady, while trusting J.J. Putz alone to fix a mess of a bullpen. Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy are nice talents to have cheap at the head of the rotation, but the rest of the staff reeks of a team treading water and hoping for some drafts to go right. In the end, their best hope of restocking with young talent with any sort of speed may lie in trading players like Stephen Drew and Chris Young, who will surely be gone by the next time Arizona has a shot at the postseason. Justin Upton, signed through 2015, is on the cusp, but ultimately looks like the only player whose job is safe.