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2011 Predictions: American League

AL East
As usual, a powerhouse division that lives up to the media attention it gets. More amazingly, no one has done anything to undermine the notion that the division is on the way to becoming more competitive from top to bottom. That’s still a few seasons off, of course; this year, the haves and have nots remain clearly demarcated:
Red Sox: I make no apologies for being a Sox fan, and was thrilled that the team finally had the sort of offseason that a club with massive revenue streams should have every so often – it certainly erased my fears that a season of Kevin Cash and Bill Hall was ownership committing to “good enough.” But while Boston made the headlines over the winter, I’m not convinced that they’re now an indomitable powerhouse guaranteed to make the playoffs. Aside from the team’s potential vulnerability to left-handed pitching (hello, Sabathia and Price), the rotation is hardly a sure thing behind Jon Lester. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka have a lot to prove coming back from injury-ruined years, John Lackey needs to build on a strong second half after a lousy start, and as good as he looked last year, Clay Buchholz actually saw a decline in strikeouts and ground balls from 2009. Those caveats aside, the Red Sox do look like the best team in the league right now; I just don’t see a huge leap past where they could have been last year without the unbelievable run of injuries.
Yankees: For once, the Yankees put all their eggs in one free agent basket and failed to come away with the prize. Looking at the woes of the rotation – which should see starts by Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Kevin Millwood – one has to think that the team never even conceived of a world in which they didn’t sign Cliff Lee. The offense is still terrifying, even with an aging Derek Jeter apt to get far too many plate appearances as the #2 hitter, and signing Rafael Soriano let them strengthen the back of their bullpen. But if Russell Martin is injured again, how quickly will the team push Jorge Posada out of his DH role and back behind the plate? And why did a team with so many question marks on the pitching staff unceremoniously dump Sergio Mitre for outfield depth in the form of Chris Dickerson? They’re still the Yankees and must be considered the wild card favorite, but having so many question marks to start the year in the Bronx is new.
Rays: After a long time doubting his ability to keep the ball in the park, I finally acknowledge that David Price is the real thing. On a related note, I now dislike David Price very intensely. The Rays aren’t hurt as much as any other club would be by losing Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, and Carl Crawford this winter; Jeremy Hellickson may actually improve the rotation, and picking up some veteran bats in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez will mitigate the damage to the outfield. It’s not hard to see why the team delayed Desmond Jennings succeeding Crawford in left, given his decline in power at AAA last year, but in the long term, the Rays still look just fine if they keep finding cheap talent like Dan Johnson (who succeeds Pena, a cheap journeyman pickup, at first). It is worth noting, however, that this year’s new bullpen arms don’t have the upside of past gems like Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, and Joaquin Benoit.
Orioles: For all the attention paid to the Orioles’ pitching prospects, the present day Baltimore club will not be saved by Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Tillman. It’s not a knock on their long-term potential, but right now, they’re not good enough, and the team’s “veteran” “ace” is 31-year-old Jeremy Guthrie, whose career peaked with a 4.18 xFIP back in 2007. Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, and even Derrek Lee will help the lineup stay respectable (albeit while bringing nothing to the defense), but they won’t be enough to get the O’s over .500; there are too many pitchers who haven’t reached their potential, and too few position players who can really be trusted to produce at elite levels.
Blue Jays: Toronto has none of Baltimore’s problems with young starters – Ricky Romero is a solid #1 if not a “true ace,” while Brandon Morrow, once healthy, is an extremely underrated #2. Beyond those two and the solid Brett Cecil, however, the back of the rotation isn’t as reliable, which is problematic when paired with a less-than-outstanding lineup. Jose Bautista isn’t going to hit another 50 home runs, and it’s fair to say that for 1B/DH types, Travis Snider and Adam Lind are disappointments. Even if we say that the real Aaron Hill was the one from 2009, this lineup makes too many outs for three good starters and a strong bullpen to have a chance.  Breaking a near tie with Baltimore: the impressive list of pitchers already injured to start the season.

AL Central
The Central is led by a trio of teams that look like prime candidates to drop a Divisional Series and set up an East vs. East or East vs. West ALCS. Of course, that is an upside that is STILL a pipe dream for the bottom two clubs:
Twins: It was a tough call picking my top team for this division, but Minnesota ultimately won out when considering a full season of Justin Morneau and a returning Joe Nathan. The latter’s efficiency is fair game for debate, but even sans their closer, the Twins have a surprisingly effective collection of finesse-type pitchers plagued only by home run issues that may, oddly, mitigate my concerns about the club’s defense. Minnesota could have built a lot of confidence by acquiring a second power infielder to go with Morneau, but that just doesn’t seem their approach – and while I don’t like to admit it, they’ve proven my underestimations wrong before.
Tigers: They did well to sign Victor Martinez after a disappointing showing from Alex Avila at catcher last year, but too many other questions remain unanswered. Jhonny Peralta’s glove at shortstop, Brandon Inge’s bat at third base, Brad Penny’s return to the American League, Phil Coke in the rotation… the Tigers are a good team, but there are too many uncertainties to consider them a favorite, even in a weak division.
White Sox: Even with Jake Peavy going back to the DL before the season stats, it’s hard not to fear the White Sox. The addition of Adam Dunn is a big part of the equation, but a full season of Edwin Jackson and a restocked bullpen may end up being just as important. Yet, Dunn aside, the White Sox are not as strong a slugging team as it appears – Carlos Quentin and the aging Paul Konerko aside, this is really a pitching-oriented club playing in a hitters’ ballpark. Need proof? The 2010 team was led in plate appearances by Juan Pierre, who is more likely to repeat that feat than he is his one home run.
Indians: As tragic as things are in Cleveland, this lineup actually has considerable upside (well, not Jack Hannahan). A healthy Grady Sizemore would be a boon, but Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo could be joined by a few improved performances from a crew of guys in their mid 20s with solid enough track records, including Lou Marson, Matt LaPorta, and Asdrubal Cabrera, and at some point, potentially outfielder-turned-second baseman and former Sun Devil Jason Kipnis. The problem is that even if all of those guys round into form instead of repeating 2010, Travis Hafner is still a laughably bad DH, and the upside of the pitching staff is considerably lower – and less likely to be attained. Realistically, Cleveland will put up some big innings, but there won’t be much change from last year’s futility until they develop, and keep, something better than a #3 starter.
Royals: I’m not going to break with the conventional wisdom that says the Royals will finally start winning one of these years thanks to their farm system. But 2011 is not that year – we should see Kila Ka’aihue finally get an extended look in the big leagues, and Tim Collins looks like a nice arm in the bullpen (Aaron Crow less so, at this point), but there simply isn’t even close to enough to think the Royals will be a good, or even mediocre, team. With the departure of Zack Greinke, the roster is basically Joakim Soria, stopgaps, and a few potential members of the 2015 club.

AL West
Finally, a fairly easy division to call! At least two of these teams are entirely out of my wildcard considerations, and one may only get in by virtue of extra games against a soft underbelly instead of strong competition:

Rangers: Neftali Feliz has clear potential to be an ace, and putting him back in the bullpen is eerily reminiscent of the Yankees’ mishandling of Joba Chamberlain. Regardless, however, he is going to anchor a great bullpen in support of a very good rotation – at least, what could be a very good rotation. With Tommy Hunter, Brandon Webb, and Scott Feldman already on the DL, the Rangers will count on Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando a lot more than they’d like. Scarier than that is the presence of Dave Bush in long relief, and presumably the #6 starter; one can only dream of the home runs that could result. Meanwhile, the lineup figures to be limited by the presence of Mitch Moreland, Julio Borbon, and Yorvit Torrealba, who will play the part of Jeff Mathis and bench a vastly superior slugger in Mike Napoli. Texas fans should hope Napoli gets extended time at first over Moreland, or the division will become uncomfortably close.
Athletics: I don’t want to sell short a pennant-winning team that managed to have a decent offseason despite the loss of Cliff Lee, but the A’s had an 85-77 Pythagorean record in 2010 and saw additions of Hideki Matsui, Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes and the potential for healthy seasons from Coco Crisp and Brett Anderson. Still, the offense is questionable; the real value of the lineup is in the strong defense the team has collected, shattering Moneyball stereotypes but perhaps defining the present market inefficiency. If the pitching staff can stay relatively healthy – no small feat; Andrew Bailey and Rich Harden are already on the DL – this could be a thrilling upset that causes sports media philistines to declare Beane abandoned Moneyball because it didn’t work.
Angels: Los Angeles of Anaheim’s winter was similar to that of the Yankees, except instead of missing out on Cliff Lee, they just missed out on everyone. Plan D – trading for Vernon Wells – looks like a clear desperation move, and one that cost them, in Mike Napoli, their most valuable position player. The heart of the lineup is still strong, and will get stronger when Kendrys Morales is fully recovered from his broken ankle, but it’s not enough to slug their way into the playoffs – and worse, its best parts are on the latter halves of their careers. With a one-two punch of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, it’s hard to discount them entirely, but the back end of the rotation and the bullpen aren’t strong enough to call this anything more than a potential .500 team.
Mariners: Seattle’s lineup makes me laugh – hard. Their starting first baseman has an OPS of .700 in the majors and a less-than-dominant history in the minors, and he’s still one of their better hitters. Maybe Milton Bradley will remember how to hit, but regardless, the team needs a lot more help from GM Jack Zduriencik. Based on his work so far, it’s anyone’s guess if they’ll get that help. Like Oakland, they look like a team built around pitching and defense; unlike Oakland, they don’t actually have pitching. The rotation, beyond Felix Hernandez, amounts to hoping for a healthy, effective Erik Bedard pitching a full season for the first time since 2007; the bullpen is anchored by the adequacy of Brandon League in the absence of similarly-okay David Aardsma, but will also feature Aaron Laffey (acquired for unknown reasons after a 4.92 xFIP in Cleveland) and someone named Tom Wilhelmsen, who has never pitched above A-ball.

Playoffs
(…wherein my shit ceases to work)

Boston over Minnesota in three
New York over Texas in five
Boston over New York in six

Philadelphia over Cincinnati in three
Colorado over Atlanta in four
Philadelphia over Colorado in seven

Philadelphia over Boston in six

(I strongly hope I’m wrong, but just feel like Philly has one last year left before they start paying for their mistakes.)