AL Central
The Central is led by a trio of teams that look like prime candidates to drop a Divisional Series and set up an East vs. East or East vs. West ALCS. Of course, that is an upside that is STILL a pipe dream for the bottom two clubs:
Twins: It was a tough call picking my top team for this division, but Minnesota ultimately won out when considering a full season of Justin Morneau and a returning Joe Nathan. The latter’s efficiency is fair game for debate, but even sans their closer, the Twins have a surprisingly effective collection of finesse-type pitchers plagued only by home run issues that may, oddly, mitigate my concerns about the club’s defense. Minnesota could have built a lot of confidence by acquiring a second power infielder to go with Morneau, but that just doesn’t seem their approach – and while I don’t like to admit it, they’ve proven my underestimations wrong before.
Tigers: They did well to sign Victor Martinez after a disappointing showing from Alex Avila at catcher last year, but too many other questions remain unanswered. Jhonny Peralta’s glove at shortstop, Brandon Inge’s bat at third base, Brad Penny’s return to the American League, Phil Coke in the rotation… the Tigers are a good team, but there are too many uncertainties to consider them a favorite, even in a weak division.
White Sox: Even with Jake Peavy going back to the DL before the season stats, it’s hard not to fear the White Sox. The addition of Adam Dunn is a big part of the equation, but a full season of Edwin Jackson and a restocked bullpen may end up being just as important. Yet, Dunn aside, the White Sox are not as strong a slugging team as it appears – Carlos Quentin and the aging Paul Konerko aside, this is really a pitching-oriented club playing in a hitters’ ballpark. Need proof? The 2010 team was led in plate appearances by Juan Pierre, who is more likely to repeat that feat than he is his one home run.
Indians: As tragic as things are in Cleveland, this lineup actually has considerable upside (well, not Jack Hannahan). A healthy Grady Sizemore would be a boon, but Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo could be joined by a few improved performances from a crew of guys in their mid 20s with solid enough track records, including Lou Marson, Matt LaPorta, and Asdrubal Cabrera, and at some point, potentially outfielder-turned-second baseman and former Sun Devil Jason Kipnis. The problem is that even if all of those guys round into form instead of repeating 2010, Travis Hafner is still a laughably bad DH, and the upside of the pitching staff is considerably lower – and less likely to be attained. Realistically, Cleveland will put up some big innings, but there won’t be much change from last year’s futility until they develop, and keep, something better than a #3 starter.
Royals: I’m not going to break with the conventional wisdom that says the Royals will finally start winning one of these years thanks to their farm system. But 2011 is not that year – we should see Kila Ka’aihue finally get an extended look in the big leagues, and Tim Collins looks like a nice arm in the bullpen (Aaron Crow less so, at this point), but there simply isn’t even close to enough to think the Royals will be a good, or even mediocre, team. With the departure of Zack Greinke, the roster is basically Joakim Soria, stopgaps, and a few potential members of the 2015 club.

AL West
Finally, a fairly easy division to call! At least two of these teams are entirely out of my wildcard considerations, and one may only get in by virtue of extra games against a soft underbelly instead of strong competition:

Rangers: Neftali Feliz has clear potential to be an ace, and putting him back in the bullpen is eerily reminiscent of the Yankees’ mishandling of Joba Chamberlain. Regardless, however, he is going to anchor a great bullpen in support of a very good rotation – at least, what could be a very good rotation. With Tommy Hunter, Brandon Webb, and Scott Feldman already on the DL, the Rangers will count on Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando a lot more than they’d like. Scarier than that is the presence of Dave Bush in long relief, and presumably the #6 starter; one can only dream of the home runs that could result. Meanwhile, the lineup figures to be limited by the presence of Mitch Moreland, Julio Borbon, and Yorvit Torrealba, who will play the part of Jeff Mathis and bench a vastly superior slugger in Mike Napoli. Texas fans should hope Napoli gets extended time at first over Moreland, or the division will become uncomfortably close.
Athletics: I don’t want to sell short a pennant-winning team that managed to have a decent offseason despite the loss of Cliff Lee, but the A’s had an 85-77 Pythagorean record in 2010 and saw additions of Hideki Matsui, Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes and the potential for healthy seasons from Coco Crisp and Brett Anderson. Still, the offense is questionable; the real value of the lineup is in the strong defense the team has collected, shattering Moneyball stereotypes but perhaps defining the present market inefficiency. If the pitching staff can stay relatively healthy – no small feat; Andrew Bailey and Rich Harden are already on the DL – this could be a thrilling upset that causes sports media philistines to declare Beane abandoned Moneyball because it didn’t work.
Angels: Los Angeles of Anaheim’s winter was similar to that of the Yankees, except instead of missing out on Cliff Lee, they just missed out on everyone. Plan D – trading for Vernon Wells – looks like a clear desperation move, and one that cost them, in Mike Napoli, their most valuable position player. The heart of the lineup is still strong, and will get stronger when Kendrys Morales is fully recovered from his broken ankle, but it’s not enough to slug their way into the playoffs – and worse, its best parts are on the latter halves of their careers. With a one-two punch of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, it’s hard to discount them entirely, but the back end of the rotation and the bullpen aren’t strong enough to call this anything more than a potential .500 team.
Mariners: Seattle’s lineup makes me laugh – hard. Their starting first baseman has an OPS of .700 in the majors and a less-than-dominant history in the minors, and he’s still one of their better hitters. Maybe Milton Bradley will remember how to hit, but regardless, the team needs a lot more help from GM Jack Zduriencik. Based on his work so far, it’s anyone’s guess if they’ll get that help. Like Oakland, they look like a team built around pitching and defense; unlike Oakland, they don’t actually have pitching. The rotation, beyond Felix Hernandez, amounts to hoping for a healthy, effective Erik Bedard pitching a full season for the first time since 2007; the bullpen is anchored by the adequacy of Brandon League in the absence of similarly-okay David Aardsma, but will also feature Aaron Laffey (acquired for unknown reasons after a 4.92 xFIP in Cleveland) and someone named Tom Wilhelmsen, who has never pitched above A-ball.

Playoffs
(…wherein my shit ceases to work)

Boston over Minnesota in three
New York over Texas in five
Boston over New York in six

Philadelphia over Cincinnati in three
Colorado over Atlanta in four
Philadelphia over Colorado in seven

Philadelphia over Boston in six

(I strongly hope I’m wrong, but just feel like Philly has one last year left before they start paying for their mistakes.)

NL East
In light of the strength at the top and the very deep flaws at the bottom, some would dismiss 2011 as another easy playoff berth for Philadelphia. But the division title looked to be competitive coming into spring, and has only become more interesting since…
Phillies: For all the talk about an historically strong rotation – which is completely merited and the reason they’re in first here – I think it’s worth noting that even before Brad Lidge went down with a rotator cuff injury, there were questions about Philly’s bullpen depth that made the division closer than a lot of analysts would recognize. Factoring in the injuries of Chase Utley and Domonic Brown, the Phils’ lineup now features Ben Francisco and Wilson Valdez on a daily basis. It’s an opening for the Braves, but it will still be difficult to get past a trio of legitimate aces and #4 starter Roy Oswalt.
Braves: I have an irrational tendency to underrate Dan Uggla’s value, but regardless, he may be the shot in the arm that the offense has long needed. I have little doubt that he’ll be well complemented by Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann; just how competitive Atlanta can be in 2011 may weigh more on secondary pieces: if Nate McLouth can rebound from an injury- and BABIP-damaged 2010 campaign and Martin Prado can up his offensive game enough to fit in left field, the Braves may be able to capitalize on Philadalphia’s weaknesses. They lack the dominant starters of their rivals up north, but that’s no knock on Tommy Hanson and (if healthy) Jair Jurrjens – the Braves have a solid rotation and several worthy closer candidates in the back of their bullpen.
Marlins: The Marlins are a young team that, even at my most optimistic, isn’t going to able to keep up with the division’s leaders. But a very impressive lineup could conceivably make a real run at the wild card if the team trades for one more bat to put Donnie Murphy or Omar Infante back on the bench, and the rotation is actually quite sound behind Josh Johnson, including Ricky Nolasco and a motivated Javier Vazquez. In any other division, I would really like the Marlins as a legitimate sleeper candidate to win the division; here, I see the upside as being maybe 85 wins and a shot at the wild card should Atlanta have a rash of injuries.
Mets: Without Johan Santana to give them one past-his-prime solid starter, the Mets instead will count on R.A. Dickey as something of a novelty act; as legitimately good as he was in 2010, and as fun as knuckleballers are, it’s a sad state of affairs that the 36-year-old is the most interesting part of a staff that is rounded out by unremarkable former prospects (Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese) and low-risk injury recoveries (Chrises Capuano and Young). The offense looks to be solid (at worst; there’s a lot of high upside guys in the lineup), but no team hits enough to make up for this laughable pitching.
Nationals: One wonders what this club could look like if only Stephen Strasburg would suck it up and pitch through a torn elbow instead of getting surgery like a wuss. But ultimately, with or without an ace, this is what a bad baseball team looks like. Washington may very well outpitch the dreadful Mets, but their lineup cannot be carried by Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman alone. For all the attention on Werth’s signing, the Nationals lost both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham from a team that was third-last in runs scored in 2010. A few nice bullpen arms aren’t going to get them out of last place.

NL Central
This is the division that really threw me, and the one most likely to ruin my chances of correctly predicting standings. The top three could all conceivably win the division, but there’s also intrigue at the bottom, where I really believe we’ll see a changing of the hapless, mismanaged guard.
Reds: It’s tough to have a great deal of faith in a team with so many young players, but I think that the amount of talent here outweighs the uncertainties. Beyond Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs, the Reds have Juan Francisco and Chris Heisey as nice bench pieces/backups, and there should be enough here to help Joey Votto and Scott Rolen. The pitching is more about their depth of young #2/3 starters and setup men than aces or strong closers, but I just think there’s too much talent to deny the incumbent the top spot in the division. I will, however, caution that Francisco Cordero and Aroldis Chapman need to be on short leashes that Dusty Baker may not believe in – Cordero was anything but closer-like in 2010 with increasing walks and declining strikeouts at age 35, and I don’t think that Chapman’s brief stint in the bigs gave an accurate representation of his ability to throw strikes.
Brewers: Milwaukee strikes me as something of a mirror image of the Reds’ approach – where Cincy is stocked with solid contributors but short on superstars, the Brewers focus on a few studs surrounded by a cast of scrubs. The bottom of the lineup (Mark Kotsay, Yuniesky Betancourt, and George Kottaras) undermines the intimidation of Braun-Fielder in the middle, and Zack Greinke landing on the DL already calls attention to just how much the team will be counting on the likes of Chris Narveson and Randy Wolf. When you can look at a team and say, “boy, it was a good thing they picked up Sergio Mitre,” they clearly didn’t put enough thought into rounding out their roster before spring.
Cardinals: With Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals might have pushed past the Reds at the top of the division. But now, the rotation will count on a full season from Jaime Garcia, a successful move from the bullpen for Kyle McClellan, and getting something useful out of Kyle Lohse. It’s a tall order, and a bullpen anchored by Ryan Franklin’s pitch-to-contact closing isn’t going to make things any easier. There may not be a right way to build a good bullpen, but looking at the cast of arms in St. Louis, there is a very wrong way to do so. Ultimately, a very good lineup is unlikely to do enough to bail out the pitching, even with Colby Rasmus finally looking like a major contributor.
Cubs: I think that this team is widely underrated going into 2011, as the addition of Carlos Pena helps offset an aging lineup. Geovany Soto has put 2009 behind him, and Aramis Ramirez should bounce back all right from a lousy BABIP in 2010; he’s not so old I see a cliff-like dropoff as likely. On the other hand, Pena can’t help a defensively-challenged roster, and a shallow bullpen is apt to blow a lot of leads before Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall ever get the ball. I could see Chicago overtaking a stumbling club from the top three, but not managing to win the division over so many teams that have more reliable production.
Pirates: There is an awful lot of offensive talent on the Pirates; I could honestly see this lineup contending for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, a lot of these hitters are also poor defenders, and that spells disaster for a rotation that looks at the Mets and sighs, “…if only…” The bullpen is surprisingly decent, but the fact that I see them getting out of the NL Central cellar is more a reflection of how bad the Astros are than it is a vote of confidence in Pirates GM Neal Huntington’s slow progress.
Astros: A lot of the time, a mismanaged franchise will manage to maintain respectability through high payroll, homegrown talent, or dumb luck. The Astros are not such a team. One only need glance at their lineup to start seeing the issues: Chris Johnson is not going to repeat his .387 BABIP of last year, when he still only got on base at a .337 clip; Bill Hall should not be a starter, and at second base, his defense is likely to compound the damage of his subpar bat; Angel Sanchez is an even more comedically useless former Red Sox infielder. Neither his minors nor extended MLB stint numbers say Brett Wallace is ready to bring his all-bat game to the bigs, but he figures to be the team’s starter at first base. Even if Carlos Lee rediscovers his swing, this is likely to be baseball’s worst lineup. I’ve heard some positivity about the pitching staff, but… why? They have four respectable starters (only Wandy Rodriguez would be more than a #3 on a good team), but are ultimately overpaying an okay closer to protect leads they won’t have. This is the most thoroughly bad team in baseball, on field and in abstractions; there’s no “should have been better” situation or statistical flukes explaining or mitigating Houston’s failures.

NL West
It’s probably the influence of a Coloradoan as one of my strongest influences in talent evaluation, but I’m bucking the popular trend and not seeing the Giants repeat here.
Rockies: I really like the Rockies’ lineup from top to bottom, and unlike the Giants, their hitters are more trustworthy in the field. Pitching in Denver will always be suspect, but there is a wealth of little-known talent behind Ubaldo Jimenez; if you need a reason to look again at the Rockies’ bullpen, consider the 92 innings of 2.78 xFIP that Matt Belisle gave them last year.
Giants: For all the attention that the pitching staff (deservedly) gets, this is actually a very nice lineup, and one that could get better with prospect Brandon Belt moving to the majors. As alluded, however, hitters like Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff, and Miguel Tejada are one-dimensional talents who will not help the pitching staff out in the field, where only Andres Torres is remarkable. I really can’t find a bad thing to say about the bullpen, but ultimately, I have faith that Brian Sabean will not be able to make it through another season without doing something to hurt his club’s chances.
Dodgers: Once again, there’s a considerable deal of upside to the lineup, with Matt Kemp looking for a bounceback season after 2010, and James Loney still young enough to take his power to another level. But an early injury to Casey Blake could slide Juan Uribe to third, and give the batless Ivan DeJesus, Jr. a starting gig; the team already figures to suffer from a second-generation production void in left fielder Tony Gwynn, Jr. Similarly, Jon Garland already hitting the DL could be a substantial blow to the rotation. I do really like the back end of the bullpen, despite the fact that it includes a human male named “Kenley.” Healthier, this team would probably push the Giants to third; right now, that prediction seems to be an overreach. It’ll be nice to see the rivals facing off to start the season, and perhaps make me consider eating my words very quickly.
Padres: Obviously, San Diego took a major hit when they traded Adrian Gonzalez, the face of the franchise and their only elite hitter. Regardless, I don’t think they’re as awful as they could be – the thirtysomething mediocrities of the lineup are balanced out by some solid younger players who may still improve, and I’m inclined to think that they’ll have a decent long-term replacement for Gonzalez in Anthony Rizzo. The pitching staff will again be a strength, with a bullpen that would be dominant in any ballpark and a rotation that steps up to looking impressive by playing half its games in the cavernous Petco Park. If the injury to Mat Latos isn’t severe, they should be able to stay near .500 – but that is a genuine “if,” as Latos shouldered a heavy workload last year for someone his age, build, and experience.
Diamondbacks: I used to be a huge Kevin Towers fanboy in his time as the Padres’ GM, but boy, he has done very little to address the problems that are abundant in Phoenix. Aside from signing Russell Branyan, the D’backs’ offseason was a bizarre performance of targeting mediocre talents like Willie Bloomquist, Geoff Blum, and Xavier Nady, while trusting J.J. Putz alone to fix a mess of a bullpen. Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy are nice talents to have cheap at the head of the rotation, but the rest of the staff reeks of a team treading water and hoping for some drafts to go right. In the end, their best hope of restocking with young talent with any sort of speed may lie in trading players like Stephen Drew and Chris Young, who will surely be gone by the next time Arizona has a shot at the postseason. Justin Upton, signed through 2015, is on the cusp, but ultimately looks like the only player whose job is safe.

87-75 Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers had an amazing 2009, winning 95 games (and 99 in their Pythagorean record) despite missing Manny Ramirez for a third of the year. So how have they fallen this far? They won’t get a repeat of Casey Blake’s production, they’ve lost Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf, and they’re committing to some hilariously bad options for depth. Their overhauled bench – Brad Ausmus, Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Garret Anderson, and Reed Johnson – averages 36 years old, which doesn’t bode well if any of their regulars suffers an injury (Russell Martin already had a scare with a groin pull). Meanwhile, holes in the rotation are being “filled” by Vicente Padilla (career ERA+ is a perfectly average 100) and knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, whose short major league career has featured nine homers and 33 walks in just 53 innings (and his minor league numbers don’t suggest he’s capable of much better). The lineup and bullpen remain very strong, as does the front of the rotation, but I’m inclined to think this team’s best days are in the past. Slowly, Ned Colletti’s depletion of the farm is catching up to the club, and while they still have enough young talent to be a threat for years to come, inefficient use of resources is starting to show up in the caliber of players they add.

81-81 San Francisco Giants: Things turned out pretty nice for the Giants last year, but eventually, Brian Sabean’s affinity for veteran mediocrity will catch up to him. Tim Lincecum heads a solid pitching staff, but I’m less than enthused about San Francisco’s major offensive additions of the winter – Aubrey Huff is 33 years old, a defensive liability, and coming off the worst hitting of his career; Mark DeRosa is praised for his versatility but, at 35, may not hold up in his expected role as an outfielder, and is far from a reliable bat. Beyond young star Pablo Sandoval, the lineup is full of 30-plus question marks and unremarkable organizational pieces.

80-82 Arizona Diamondbacks: The right side of the infield has been upgraded nicely with former Braves Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson brought in for less than $7 million combined; the days of Chad Tracy’s .310 OBP at first are mercifully over. I’d bet on improvements from Chris Young and a healthy Conor Jackson with better luck on balls in play; whether they bounce back more than Mark Reynolds regresses after a career year will help determine just how good the lineup is. Bob Howry will help a bullpen that did a nice job keeping the ball in the park last year, but it’s up to Chad Qualls to rebound from a dislocated kneecap and show that he can continue to be a dominant closer. Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson should combine to be more useful (albeit more expensive) than Max Scherzer, for whom they were acquired, by himself, but neither has his upside. The real question, however, is Brandon Webb – if the team’s former ace can recover from shoulder surgery by midseason and prove a solid #2 behind Dan Haren, the Diamondbacks could be looking at a wildcard run. If he can’t, things will get ugly fast: currently slated to be the team’s #4 starter is 34-year-old Rodrigo Lopez, who posted a 1.77 WHIP and 5.70 ERA for the Phillies last year.

74-88 San Diego Padres: The Padres have taken a hit in my rooting hierarchy since firing GM Kevin Towers, but his replacement Jed Hoyer hasn’t done much to worry me, either. He brought outfielder Scott Hairston back from Oakland, gave a minor league contract to a good pinch-hitter in Matt Stairs, and worked with a tight budget to add starter Jon Garland, who can bolster his numbers and trade value with a good first half in Petco Park (Kevin Correia has similar potential to bring prospects in by July). The Pads still have three legitimate offensive threats in Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Blanks, and Chase Headley, but the club’s real strength is its bullpen – beyond Heath Bell, San Diego boasts the underrated talents of Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, and Joe Thatcher. The problem is that with little offense and forgettable starters, there won’t be enough leads to hold.

NL West MVP: For voters, this might just come down to which NL West teams look strongest in the season’s final months. My best guess is that Pablo Sandoval, Matt Kemp, and Troy Tulowitzki lead the division in votes. Sandoval won’t be on quite as good a team and doesn’t have the sort of athleticism people seem to love, while Kemp has more competition among his own teammates. Tulowitzki hits cleanup and plays a premium defensive position, and won’t have to fight for the spotlight with the likes of Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez.

NL West Cy Young: This is a toughie – there are several talented aces in the division, and I’m a big Dan Haren fan. Still, there’s just no reason to vote against Tim Lincecum winning his third Cy in a row, as the 25-year-old has shown no signs of decline.

NL West Rookie of the Year: There aren’t many jobs for rookies in this division, and those that exist are overwhelmingly in bullpen and bench roles that depend on someone getting hurt or traded to open up more playing time. I refuse to believe that Dan Runzler will suddenly cease walking way too many hitters to be useful, so I’ll just place my bet on Buster Posey getting a job by midseason.

84-78 Chicago Cubs: The most perennially optimistic fans in baseball can hang their hats on this: for all their problems, they’re still the favorite in the division should Pujols be indicted (and held without bail) in events leading to Chris Carpenter missing the entire season. To have much more optimism than that is to assume Alfonso Soriano can recover from an awful 2009 while several over-30 players maintain their level of productivity. I’m a fan of closer Carlos Marmol, but he can only do so much to help a weak bullpen, just as a resurgent Geovany Soto won’t be enough in for lineup with several gaping holes. For the way Milton Bradley was run out of town, I won’t be particularly sympathetic when things break short of 100% right and the Cubs spend October wondering what went wrong (again).

78-84 Milwaukee Brewers: When you’re willing to pay an aging Randy Wolf, who has just 3 years over 200 innings, $10 million a year through 2010, you know you’ve got pitching issues. A healthy Yovani Gallardo could be a true ace, but on four days out of five, the Brewers are in serious danger of being outscored. For a team that has the bats to be a contender (though it’s doubtful that sophomore Casey McGehee can hit enough for a third baseman), the arms are too great a liability to entertain the idea of a playoff run.

77-85 Cincinnati Reds: I was big on this team as a dark horse last season, and while they improved by four games over 2008, they’ve started to resemble a marginally younger version of the Brewers – solid enough hitting in the heart of the order (albeit lacking a Ryan Braun-level threat to complement their star first baseman), but unremarkable pitching. They’re hindered by the loss of Edinson Volquez to Tommy John surgery, but excuses won’t help them win. I’m intrigued by rookie Mike Leake, an Arizona State alum whose ground ball tendencies could help him keep a job in a rotation devoid of reliable starters. His quest should be aided by a defense-minded infield including Scott Rolen and the batless Orlando Cabrera.

69-93 Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are looking to build on some eye-catching rookies (Garrett Jones, Andrew McCutchen) by adding bench and bullpen pieces (Bobby Crosby, Ryan Church, Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly), as well as picking up Akinori Iwamura from Tampa Bay for an unremarkable reliever. Factoring in a resurgence from Ryan Doumit and contributions from Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge, the team has a decent chance at its first 70-win season since 2004.

67-95 Houston Astros: An early injury to Lance Berkman has already called into question one of the few positives this team has. After overachieving a 68-win pythagorean record in 2009, the Astros spent their offseason adding such talent as Pedro Feliz, Brett Myers, Matt Lindstrom, and Brandon Lyon. Even if Hunter Pence continues to develop as a nice young power hitter, and Wandy Rodriguez can take another step towards becoming a true ace, there just isn’t enough talent here to justify the heavy investment in bullpen arms and veteran glove men. GM Ed Wade didn’t make the mistake of targeting truly worthless players, but he did throw an awful lot of money at complementary pieces whose marginal contributions could help a good team push towards the postseason. This, however, is a bad team.

NL Central MVP: Pujols. I may enjoy unconventional picks sometimes, but I’m not stupid.

NL Central Cy Young: Chris Carpenter came in second in the NL Cy race last year despite missing a month early in the year. While he’s getting older (he’ll turn 35 later this month), I think he’s still on another level compared to every other starter in the division (3.38 XFIP compared to Yovani Gallardo’s 3.76, Roy Oswalt’s 3.88, Wandy Rodriguez’s 3.63, and Ryan Dempster’s 3.81). Teammate Adam Wainwright’s 3.36 was very impressive and I still see him as one of baseball’s best #2 starters, but he doesn’t have anything close to Carpenter’s track record.

NL Central Rookie of the Year: Finally, I get to make a pick that takes more than a few seconds consideration. The attention paid to Cuban deserter Aroldis Chapman aside, I think the Reds may have a more promising option in Mike Leake. Scouts aren’t high on him, but the Reds have little reason to rush him straight to the majors with nothing but Fall League experience on his pro resume; clearly, they see something they really like in the 22-year-old. In a draft year without Strasburg, he’d have been the top pitcher available, and the lack of hype just might help the media see him for what he is – a promising back-of-the-rotation guy. All that aside, I’m just not impressed by his competition – Brewers shortstop Alcides Escobar has the safest job among rookies, but I’m unconvinced by his bat; Cincy’s Juan Francisco’s looks about ready at the plate, but doesn’t have a starting role unless someone gets hurt or slump.

88-74 Atlanta Braves: When the Braves sent Javier Vazquez to New York, I fear they got too little back; Arodys Vizcaino is a long way off, and I’d have preferred dumping Derek Lowe’s contract and not worrying about a high-ceiling prospect years down the line. I was also less than thrilled that some of their savings were spent on Troy Glaus, who has some upside but isn’t the reliable power bat the club needed to add – nor are Melky Cabrera or rookie Jason Heyward. Still, the corner outfield spots should be well improved from Garret Anderson and Jeff Francoeur. While the team is more balanced than last year, the pitching is still a strength, with a returning Tim Hudson keeping the rotation deep and ex-Sox Billy Wagner and Takashki Saito helping the bullpen survive the losses of its 2009 closers. The Braves’ offseason was hampered by their limited budget, but I think they’ve got more than enough to make a serious playoff run.

79-83 Florida Marlins: Last year’s club overcame a flukishly high ERA from Ricky Nolasco and the existence of Emilio Bonifacio to win 87 games and reach second place. This year, the challenges will include regression from Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan and another bullpen and back of the rotation that’s short on strikeouts and long on home runs. The team still has Hanley Ramirez at shortstop and a nice front of the rotation with Nolasco and Josh Johnson. I’m surprised that they’ve stuck with second baseman Dan Uggla this long, particularly with Coghlan’s value mitigated in left field. The team badly needs a shutdown reliever or two, and despite Uggla’s defensive shortcomings, he has some trade value; sliding Coghlan in at second and signing one of the many solid outfielders on the market this winter could have made this team several wins better.

78-84 New York Mets: …and now a team that seriously lacks pitching. The Mets saw last year that Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey cannot be trusted, and should have learned that John Maine is not the ace-in-making some seem to believe. In short, their pitching hinges around Johan Santana staving off age and a hodgepodge bullpen, including rookie Jenrry Mejia (who struggled in AA), managing to find the right combination of veterans, minor leaguers, and imported talent. The addition of Jason Bay helps the offense, but the lineup has too many weak spots due to injuries and a lack of homegrown talent; the team’s success will largely depend on the ability of Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes to get and stay healthy.

71-91 Washington Nationals: Insofar as anyone pays attention to the Nationals, the media attention this year has been focused on young pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen. Both prospects, however, will start the season in the minors – a smart move to keep service time down and maximize their contributions in the future, but not a good sign for how entertaining a season this will be for D.C. fans. The lineup actually has decent talent, with Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Ryan Zimmerman joined by promising young shortstop Ian Desmond. Jason Marquis will help stabilize the rotation a bit, and despite the criticism his two-year, $15 million contract received, his last two seasons suggest he’ll be worth it; Chien-Ming Wang is a riskier investment, but if he’s healthy, he could be a bargain at $2 million. I’m less optimistic about the bullpen, where Matt Capps and Tyler Clippard are apt to make fans long for the days of Ron Villone and Joe Beimel.

NL East MVP: Some part of me expects Chipper Jones to have a monstrous season after I turned down a potential fantasy trade figuring his risk of collapse was too high, but realistically, I’d put my money on a younger player – and the division has no one better than Hanley Ramirez.

NL East Cy Young: Big trades always seem to have less impact than the 162-0 team the media seems to expect, but Roy Halladay was a perennial contender in the stronger American League, and he’s moving to a team that will give him ample run support for the all-important Wins measure. Plus, he has a decent defense behind him.

NL East Rookie of the Year: I’m pretty sure most in the media would like the NL RoY award to be given to Jason Heyward already. But despite the overratedness, he’s pretty impressive, and it’s hard to pick against him as a frontrunner. Giving him more competition than many might expect: Florida’s Gaby Sanchez, who has slugged .576 in 33 at-bats in the bigs.

82-80 Los Angeles Angels: Decidedly not improved since last year, the Angels are going to have a hard time repeating their 97-65 2009. They’ve lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Guerrero, and Oliver, and signing Hideki Matsui, Joel Pineiro, and Fernando Rodney won’t make up for it. The roster doesn’t have any gaping holes that don’t have a decent chance of being filled from within, but it it’s also lacking in established, entering-their-prime stars; their real hope is that the deep rotation can keep them afloat and the offense gets enough production to keep the bullpen from dragging them down.

80-82 Oakland A’s: The Athletics were almost a .500 run differential team last year, and amidst preseason hype around Seattle, they seem to be a popular dark horse to take this division. While they’re better than some of the more foolish pundits believe, I don’t think they’re that good yet. I really like the signing of Ben Sheets to anchor a young rotation, and if he’s healthy, he could join Brett Anderson for a fine 1-2 punch. Health questions about the bullpen are undermining another potential strength before the season even starts, but with several strong defensive players, I think the doubts about the offense are overblown. They aren’t going to outslug a lot of opponents, but they also aren’t going to be bad enough to undo the work of a well-constructed run-prevention unit.

80-82 Seattle Mariners: I have as much interest in criticizing GM Jack Zduriencik as I do in watching Glee; he has done a nice job at turning over the lineup he inherited and adding Cliff Lee to complement Felix Hernandez in the rotation. The acquisition of Brandon League from the Blue Jays adds to an already solid bullpen, and Chone Figgins and Casey Kotchman should help this be a very good defensive club. Milton Bradley’s temperament is second to his talent, and picking him up for disastrous pitcher Carlos Silva was a fine move. That said, however: this rotation is dangerously shallow, and if Cliff Lee spends much time on the DL with Erik Bedard, Mariners fans are going to become all too familiar with Ian Snell and Jason Vargas. Unlike the A’s, I don’t think the pitching is deep enough to offset a weak offense. Since I haven’t worked up a full rooting hierarchy this year, I should just note that while I’m rooting for the A’s to prove my right (and in reaction to the Mariners’ overratedness), Seattle’s still my #2 club in this division and probably in my top 10 overall.

AL West MVP: If he hadn’t started the season on the DL, I’d say the smart money was on Ian Kinsler, particularly given he’s on an expected playoff club. But instead, I’ll go with the Angels’ Kendry Morales. He’ll turn just 27 this summer, and hit 34 homers (and 43 doubles) last season, and actually improved in the second half. I ate my words about his minor league numbers not portending much value last year, so it’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

AL West Cy Young: Cliff Lee is very good, but like Kinsler, starts the season with an injury that may nag on into the season. Even with that aside, the hype around 31-year-old Mariner is a bit overblown due to his multiple trades – he’s not quite the pitcher that teammate Felix Hernandez is with regard to pre-2008 track records. Also, King Felix doesn’t have this against him.

AL West Rookie of the Year: The hype around Neftali Feliz looks like it may actually be justified, and he could make a big impact with voters out of the Rangers’ bullpen. As far as dark horse candidates go, the gradual depletion of the A’s outfield (Jack Cust designated for assignment, Scott Hairston traded away, and now Coco Crisp on the DL) makes me wonder if Michael Taylor could be up sooner than expected – or, if the Eric Chavez experiment at DH fails as I expect, Chris Carter could take on a role with the club. Either could hit enough to make it a race, given the chance.

80-82 Chicago White Sox: Failure, thy name is Pierre. After finally falling out of favor in Los Angeles despite his best season in half a decade, Juan Pierre will bring his out-making ways to the Windy City, where Ozzie Guillen will provide him with more chances to make outs than any other hitter. He’s a fitting symbol of the team’s offseason, which included adding fellow Ned Colletti mistake Andruw Jones (albeit on a contract so cheap he might be a decent DH) and Royal disappointment Mark Teahen. Still, this team has most of the core that almost made it to .500 last year; a full season of Carlos Quentin should more than make up for the loss of Jermaine Dye, and a full year of Jake Peavy could give them the best #4 starter in the league.

79-83 Detroit Tigers: This is a team that overperformed a sub-.500 run differential last year, already pointing to a potential slide in 2010. Their offseason included the loss of Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, and surprise second ace Edwin Jackson; Johnny Damon won’t replace the lost offense (and his glove doesn’t help), and NL transplants Max Scherzer and Jose Valverde may struggle a bit in the tougher American League. The team has some nice talent to rebuild from within, but I can’t see them breaking .500 again.

77-85 Cleveland Indians: Strong springs from several key players have my emotional side thinking of 2007, but my rational mind takes one look at the rotation and I’m reminded that .500 is an ambitious dream. The entire pitching staff remains an ugly mess, really, with comeback candidate Kerry Wood starting the year on the DL and my faith in the bullpen shattered by last year. The team’s big offseason addition, Russell Branyan, is also on the DL already, which seems a bad omen for a team that has to count on so much to go right if they hope to win 80 games. The team needs Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook, and Fausto Carmona to return to form after multiple years of injuries and poor production, and needless to say, Grady Sizemore must recover from his shorter spell of trouble in 2009. Even in a weak division, returning to contention seems a very tall order.

70-92 Kansas City Royals: I take it as proof of sanity that I have no idea what the Royals are doing. With Zach Greinke, Joakim Soria, Billy Butler, and Alberto Callaspo, they have a decent group of young talent, and Alex Gordon still has time to turn into a talented hitter. But aside from a cheap contract to Rick Ankiel to patrol center field, it seems that Dayton Moore doesn’t know what a useful major league player looks like. Jason Kendall, a 35-year-old catcher with less power than a liberal Democrat in the US Senate, received a two-year deal; Scott Podsednik and Brian Anderson will combine to make $2.5 million despite the overwhelming odds that they will not help the team in any tangible way. Dedicated to sticking with the players who have brought such ignominy over the years, the team will stick $12 million man Jose Guillen at DH for his final season in Kansas City, letting the Hawaiian god of walks, Kila Ka’aihue, continue to toil at AAA Omaha.

AL Central MVP: A season as good as Joe Mauer‘s 2009 is likely to be followed by a bit of regression, particularly from a guy who takes the physical beating a catcher does behind the plate. But even if he falls short, there doesn’t look to be much competition in the division – assuming voters won’t go with a pitcher, it would be up to Grady Sizemore to rebound and finally win the MVP many predicted for him a few years back, or Miguel Cabrera to have an historic season that makes voters forget about domestic violence charges and vote against the “good, hometown guy” in Mauer. Neither is particularly likely.

AL Central Cy Young: This isn’t much of a division for Cy-caliber pitchers (the Twins and Indians don’t have true ace-caliber #1s, the White Sox have too many guys who, while talented, just don’t seem likely to make a major step to superstardom), with only Justin Verlander looking like a realistic challenger for 2009 winner Zack Greinke.

AL Central Rookie of the Year: Finally, a category where we can’t see a repeat winner. There are several weak contenders here, but I don’t think any of them will be the eventual AL RoY winner. The Indians’ Michael Brantley has the sort of speed that might get him votes, but lacks the power to really make an impression. Perhaps most damning is the fact that he could be squeezed out of a job once Russell Branyan gets healthy and Matt LaPorta moves to the outfield. Detroit’s Austin Jackson has gotten the most hype since being traded from the Yankees, but Scott Sizemore has both the job security (Jackson could be squeezed out by the likes of Ryan Raburn if he struggles early) and power (well, sort of – iffy in the low minors, but slugged .500 between AA and AAA last year) to open some eyes.

95-67   Boston Red Sox: The phrase “addition by subtraction” usually applies to instances where teams are getting worse, but feel better because they’ve gotten rid of a player whose personality they dislike. In the case of the Red Sox’ winter, I almost felt like they won simply by getting rid of the cumbersome defensive entity that is Jason Bay. Obviously, however, they went far beyond that, retooling the entire left side of the diamond with Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre on the infield, and Mike Cameron pushing the poor defensive instincts of Jacoby Ellsbury into a small left field. They overpaid in their contracts for Lackey and most likely Cameron, but in light of the Yankees, I can’t really criticize a strategy that seemed to be, “just be sure we don’t come away empty-handed.” For all the attention the much-improved Boston defense is getting, Scutaro’s on-base abilities should be a nice upgrade at short, and Beltre should pick up where Mike Lowell left off abusing the Green Monster in left. The one area of concern is the bullpen; if all six starting pitchers are healthy, Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka might make a nice reliever, but failing that, they need Manny Delcarmen or Ramon Ramirez to recover from troubling 2009 campaigns, and Daniel Bard to build on his promising rookie season.

93-69   Tampa Bay Rays: I’m a bit torn here. I’ve been known to be astoundingly paranoid about Tampa since 2008, and they hardly needed to make drastic changes after a solid finish in a season where they had numerous injury excuses. But I’m still surprised at how little they ended up doing this winter, and am hopeful it will cost them. Kelly Shoppach should be a step up from Dioner Navarro if given the bulk of starts, and Rafael Soriano should help the bullpen get back to being a big factor, but I’m not completely sold on most of their young starters; they could very well end up with three back-of-the-rotation types behind Garza and Shields. Still, the lineup is terrifying, particularly if Evan Longoria continues to feed on Boston pitching.

75-87   Baltimore Orioles: I keep hearing about the young pitching here, but I’m far from sold on the Orioles’ ability to reach .500, let alone contend in baseball’s toughest division. The addition of Kevin Millwood (at the negligible price of Chris Ray) certainly helps, but I see a lot of middle-of-the-rotation arms, at best, in the near future. Coupled with a bullpen that revolves around new closer Mike Gonzalez and little else, they could easily have one of the worst pitching staffs around unless a youngster can break through. The lineup has as many points of hope (a great sophomore effort from Matt Wieters; a breakout year from Nolan Reimold; the return of Nick Markakis’ power) as problems (Cesar Izturis’ bats must be made of balsa; counting on Garrett Atkins to help your third base situation is like counting on Alec Baldwin and Madonna for relationship advice, but ultimately, we’re looking at another forgettable season for the Orioles. The future may be brighter, but it’s not imminent.

68-94   Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays finally did what they had to do by trading Roy Halladay, and the rebuilding effort has shown signs that the right folks are in charge, but then, J.P. Ricciardi was ostensibly a stat-head early on. The bottom line is that sans Halladay, Toronto is a non-factor for 2010. Much like with the Orioles, I need to see more results before I’m sold on the young pitchers; a rotation headed by Shaun Marcum is anything but intimidating. Their biggest offseason adds were Alex Gonzalez and John Buck, who can’t be counted on to give depth to a lineup that, I’ll grant, has some nice potential in Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Aaron Hill. Oh, and we should all know how little I like Kevin Gregg; expect his futility to continue with a move to the superior league.

Mainstream preseason predictions tend to try to pick the season’s award-winners, but my division-by-division model would leave that as an asymmetrically short post. Solution: award contenders by division!

AL East MVP: I’m not saying he’ll deserve it, but Mark Teixeira is the sort of guy voters will love – winning team, RBIs, strong defensive reputation.  In terms of actual value, I could see Evan Longoria outplaying him.

AL East Cy Young: My brain says CC Sabathia; my heart says Jon Lester.  If the real winner comes from the East, it’ll be one  of those two.

AL East Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz is getting so much preseason hype that I almost expect him to lose simply by disappointing voters, even if he’s more valuable than whatever dark horse emerges.  For that honor, I’ll throw out the Rays’ Wade Davis, who has the added advantage of playing on a winning team – something voters shouldn’t, but will, look at.

AL East

Red Sox (ranked #1 in pre-season hierarchy): It makes sense that my favorite, most-watched team would be one of my most accurate predictions, and by calling 96 wins for the Red Sox, I overrated them by just one win. Their low-risk, high-reward plans didn’t really work out: SP Brad Penny was mediocre, John Smoltz was cut too fast when too many bloop hits dropped in, and OF Rocco Baldelli didn’t play enough to have a major impact (and had trouble getting on base when he was healthy). Even trade acquisition Ramon Ramirez turned into a disappointment, with declining strikeouts leading to a very poor 5.17 xFIP. How, then, did they basically live up to my prediction? Contrary to my expectations, DH David Ortiz rebounded to a solid season, RF J.D. Drew stayed healthy and was an asset in the field as well as at the plate, the team got some fluke offensive value from SSs Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez, young arms pitched in, and key trades paid off. Still, seeing the little things go right is little consolation after the potential high rewards never came, leaving the team with just enough to get into the postseason and then leave with a whimper.
Orioles (13): I gave the Orioles the benefit of the doubt when I put them two wins over my prediction floor, at 72-90. Instead, their pitchers were almost as bad as I expected (though Koji Uehara worked out better than expected) and a sub-par offense took them from a predicted “bad” to an abysmally terrible 2009. I predicted bullpen issues, but the Orioles ended up a team with nothing going for them but the solid trade return they received for reliever George Sherrill.
Blue Jays (14): This time, I was right about a bullpen being good, and OF/DH Adam Lind and 2B Aaron Hill made the Jays’ offense better than I expected. I noted that “SS Marco Scutaro lacks both power and, at 33, any real upside,” but he ended up leading the team in on-base percentage and slugging over .400. Toronto’s rotation was also stronger than I expected, yet I still overrated them by 3 games, as they fell short of 78 wins (though their Pythagorean record of 84-78 also points to more talent than the results showed).
Rays (27): Boy, this was a relief. James Shields and Matt Garza led a rotation with significant home run issues, Pat Burrell had the worst season of his career, CF B.J. Upton and C Dioner Navarro took big steps back, and as predicted, the older pitchers in the bullpen didn’t exactly step up. The team got surprise contributions from relievers Lance Cormier and Dan Wheeler (who lowered his walks and kept his BABIP below .200 for a second straight season), and unforeseen power outbursts from infielders Ben Zobrist (formerly one of my favorite prospects except for his lack of pop!) and Jason Bartlett, but it wasn’t enough to get them past 84 wins. It’s worth noting that until the last few week of the season, my 88 win prediction looked right on the money, but their slump towards the end wasn’t that shocking for a team having so many down years.
Yankees (30): Even my respectful 95-win prediction didn’t account for this year’s Evil Empire taking the step from good to great, and ending up at 103-59. I didn’t foresee that their young pitchers would struggle or be moved to the bullpen, but I also was dead wrong in expecting SS Derek Jeter to post a down year instead of making an MVP run for a while. To my credit, I spotlighted reliever David Robertson as a potential turning point for the 2009 Yankees, and he was indeed one of the keys to a much stronger bullpen.

AL Central

Indians (2): My hometown team was my biggest mistake in terms of forecast error (I called 88 wins, they managed just 65), but I don’t think anyone foresaw so many pitchers having awful seasons, with career-high home run rates rampant in the bullpen (which I’d picked as one of their greatest strengths!). Making me even more wrong, 1B Ryan Garko ended up being one of the team’s better hitters before being traded.
Tigers (19): The Tigers only beat my .500 projection by five games, but my predictions were marked by two conspicuous claims: “(Brandon) Inge makes for a horrible hitting 3B,” and “(Edwin) Jackson is little more than a #5 starter.” Both instead ended up as All-Stars, though it’s certainly significant that they struggled mightily in the second half as their team came up a win short of the postseason. I was still right from the start that Detroit’s rotation was a problem, as a lot of mediocre pitchers were tried in the final two slots as the season went along.
Twins (24): First up, my mistakes: I underrated the 87-win Minnesota club by three games, as SP Nick Blackburn kept his control and repeated his 2008 success and Joe Mauer had a clear MVP season. I was, however, right to predict Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey would give up more home runs than in the previous season, and most of all correct in citing their situational hitting of 2008 as an unrepeatable bit of luck. That year, they scored 829 runs, with a .279/.340/.408 team line. In 2009, without major personnel changes, they improved at the plate, going .274/.345/.429… and scored 12 fewer runs.
Royals (26): Oh, the folly of forced optimism (even though I gave the team my lowest prediction at 70 wins; they underachieved even this by 5 games); I claimed that their rotation “isn’t that awful.” It
really was; Zack Greinke was fantastic, Brian Bannister respectable, but Gil Meche finally regressed to futility, and the team struggled to find starters all season long. Other than that, I was pretty much right on: 1B Billy Butler was an offensive standout and Joakim Soria a dominant closer, while SS Mike Aviles couldn’t repeat his BABIP-induced “success” of 2008, DH Mike Jacobs failed to get on base while his power declined, and Jose Guillen was paid a team-high $12 million to play like a 4th (or 5th) outfielder. I predicted “no surprises,” and that was basically the bottom line despite pitching that was even worse than I thought and a nice power surge from 2B Alberto Callaspo.
White Sox (29): Yet again, I underestimated the White Sox. This time, however, they only beat my prediction by three games, coming in short of .500 at 79 wins. As usual, I assumed that veterans would be the team’s downfall, but “just about finished” 1B Paul Konerko was the team’s second-best hitter, and C A.J. Pierzynski had his best season since 2006. More things that made Ozzie Guillen smarter than me: 3B Josh Fields was only “solid” if one has ruled out liquid, gas, and plasma, and OF DeWayne Wise’s bat actually merited being benched for players like Scott Podsednik. Some small consolation: Scott Linebrink continued to be a dreadful reliever with too large a contract, and SS Alexei Ramirez had the decline in power I expected.

AL West

A’s (4): The 75-win A’s underachieved both my predicted 85 wins and their .500 Pythagorean winning percentage, but I fault neither myself nor the team – the team was plagued by injuries both foreseeable (3B Eric Chavez) and less so (SP Justin Duchscherer was hurt in the spring, but didn’t figure to miss the whole season), and what I predicted to be a “well above average” offense turned out to be a bit below average. Still, I was right to suggest the bullpen could be “a solid group” with contributions from Michael Wuertz, as he and Andrew Bailey helped the team absorb a lost season for Joey Devine. Perhaps most presciently, I called the A’s “unlikely to get back as nice a package if they deal” Holliday, and indeed, the shrinking group of prospects when they passed the former Rockie on to St. Louis may have been the team’s biggest non-injury setback this season.
Mariners (6): 2009 was a bit of a mixed bag for Seattle. On the upside: veteran pickups like 1B Russell Branyan and RP David Aardsma worked out nicely, and GM Jack Zduriencik found another nice piece mid-season in OF Ryan Langerhans. The dimmer look: Branyan’s a free agent, and Aardsma and RF Ichiro Suzuki are too old to be the core of a long-term future beside SP Felix Hernandez. Zduriencik made some very iffy trades, and their surprising win total (85 to a predicted 72) masks a negative run differential and 75-87 Pythagorean record.
Rangers (18): Texas beat my prediction of a bad 73-win season with 87 wins, with SS Elvis Andrus vastly surpassing offensive expectations, 3B Michael Young’s bat looking reborn (with the help of a .351 BABIP), and most notably a lot of young pitchers I hadn’t even considered turning into useful pieces for a team that contended into September. Even Andruw Jones brought a little value to the team, and the only thing that went wrong was the failure of the Rangers’ young catchers, eventually leading the team to reacquire Ivan Rodriguez.
Angels (22): The Angels’ 97 wins obliterated my modest 84-78 prediction thanks to a few unforeseen offensive contributions: instead of getting worst, 3B Chone Figgins had his first 100 walk season, and 1B “Kendry Morales, whose major league numbers are quite weak and whose AAA stats are inflated by a great hitting environment at Salt Lake City” hit 34 home runs and was the team’s best hitter. I was right, to a degree, on the rotation’s depth (the starters surrendered too many home runs, but still had a deeper rotation than most teams), but didn’t foresee the numerous injuries and shortcomings that made the Angels’ bullpen a major vulnerability. While I credited the Angels for finally giving the starting job at catcher to Mike Napoli, the team still managed to put offensive non-factor Jeff Mathis into 84 games.

NL East

Braves (ranked #7 in pre-season hierarchy): I was pretty right on about Atlanta, but wrong about the NL, predicting an 85-win season might get a wild card. They managed 86 wins, but fell short of a postseason appearance thanks largely to a surprisingly strong NL West. The front end of the rotation was strong as predicted, and they actually got more out of their relievers than expected, but as I noted in February, their middling offense just couldn’t carry them far enough.
Marlins (12): Got this one dead wrong. I thought they’d overachieved in 2008 and predicted 76 wins; they instead won 87 (with a run differential indicating a true talent level closer to 82) and made a run at the wild card. They did it while managing to scrape even below the bottom of the barrel in giving 3B Emilio Bonifacio more time than expected offensive void Wes Helms, and without a strong year from Ricky Nolasco; rookie Chris Coghlan carried a lot of the offensive load, but it’s still hard to see how they managed to be so good.
Nationals (8): An idiot, I actually gave the Nationals the benefit of the doubt and predicted 75 wins instead of their actual 59. Sure, the low-return trade of Nick Johnson hurt their ability to contend, but I simply didn’t foresee the awfulness of this club, nor the firing of their biggest bright spot in manager Manny Acta.
Phillies (21): Note to self: don’t diss the defending champions. My tepid 84-win expectations for the Philadelphia club were blown away with a 93-win season, and while Raul Ibanez dropped off quite a bit from MVP candidacy in the second half, he managed to make me (and many other analysts) look like fools for underestimating his value. I did manage to foresee the club’s bullpen problems and predict J.A. Happ’s usefulness (well, I called him “probably the best option” at the back of the rotation).
Mets (23): I apparently bought into the hype (and failed to foresee every player on the forty-man roster having a season-ending injury in by the All-Star break, which is only a slight exaggeration of what happened) and gave the Mets 89 wins. They managed 70. I also overestimated the grotesque train wreck season of Oliver Perez, but at least I did foresee that he would be a problem.

NL Central

Reds (9): I acknowledged at the time that my 80 win prediction was very optimistic, so I’m not at all ashamed that they only won 78. They didn’t have any breakout performances, but as predicted, Chris Dickerson’s power disappeared and Willy Taveras did nothing to help the club. Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes filled the outfield admirably when Jay Bruce got hurt. Contrary to my prediction, however, the team’s starting pitching was pretty mediocre.
Pirates (5): I only gave them 70 wins because I couldn’t justify predicting horrendousness, but I can’t say I’m surprised that they fell 8 games short of that mark. The team’s only real bright spots were rookie outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones, and the biggest thing to which the team can look forward for the immediate future is the development of some of the low-upside prospects that GM Neal Huntington acquired in the team’s mid-season fire sale.
Cardinals (20): Yet another of my missed calls, the Cardinals did a fair deal more than my predicted 80 wins, leading the division at 91-71. Making me even wronger, the pitching turned out to be a strength after I called it out as a glaring weakness; Joel Pineiro turned into a ground ball machine, and Adam Wainwright increased his ground balls and added 2 strikeouts per 9 innings to become a solid #2 starter. As wrong as I was, however, I’m pleased that things turned out well for the Cardinals; the acquisitions of Matt Holliday and a few underrated Red Sox castoffs has broken the Cardinals out of my apathy zone and made them pretty likable.
Cubs (10): The team that I picked as the NL favorite managed just 83 wins, 12 games short of my prediction. In my defense, I did note that they were overrated and could be a disappointment, and predicted the futility of their second basemen and closer Kevin Gregg. As predicted, the pitching was a strength, particularly with the emergency of rookie Randy Wells. Still, this club is due for a huge fall in my rooting hierarchy, after they and their fans basically ran Milton Bradley out of town, caring more about his demeanor than the fact he was a far, far better player than Alfonso Soriano.
Brewers (16): Once again, I overestimated the team, but not as completely as I could have. The Brewers fell short of .500 with 80 wins, 3 fewer than I expected. J.J. Hardy wasn’t the useful player I expected, while Trevor Hoffman proved me wrong by being a dominant closer yet again. On the plus side, Jeff Suppan, Jason Kendall, and Braden Looper were about as futile as they could be (of course, their struggles were hardly creative, out-on-a-limb predictions on my part).
Astros (28): I was too harsh. The Astros weren’t a 70-win club. SP Wandy Rodriguez had a career year at age 30, Michael Bourn reacquainted himself with the world of above-replacement-level baseball, and Jeff Fulchino and LaTroy Hawkins stabilized the bullpen. With all of these positive developments, the Astros made me look far too critical as they upset the Pirates for 5th place in the division at 74-88! I apologize profusely for implying that the Astros were the most phenomenally stupid team in the National League.

NL West

Padres (3): Considering the team spent most of the year without Jake Peavy or Brian Giles, it’s pretty impressive that they managed to beat my prediction by one game, going 75-87 in fourth place. I touted Giles as an offensive asset, but even when healthy, he was far from it; his .191/.277/.271 makes it hard to see him getting a starting gig next year. I was right about the bullpen being a strength, and Henry Blanco and David Eckstein were about as bad as expected. I don’t think I was alone when I wrote off Kevin Correia as a “cheap gambles who could eat some innings,” but he instead turned into a surprising ace. The most intriguing thing about the Padres at this point is their volatility in my rooting rankings as we head towards the offseason – GM Kevin Towers (and his aggressive trading and eye for underrated talent) was a big part of my fondness for this team, and his firing hurts them. But a promotion for Paul DePodesta or hiring an assistant GM from Oakland or Boston would be enough to keep San Diego in my good graces while I cross my fingers and hope Towers doesn’t land in Toronto.
Rockies (17): Clearly, I know very little about baseball. The Rockies blew my 79-win prediction out of the water as they went 92-70, winning the wildcard and putting up a fight against the defending champion Phillies in the NLDS. How did I get it this wrong? It starts with my underestimating Ubaldo Jimenez, and continues through the rotation as Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, and Jorge De La Rosa all exceeded my expectations. I instead touted the strength of the bullpen, but outside of closer Huston Street, their relievers struggled outside of midseason acquisition Rafael Betancourt. Troy Tulowitzki proved me wrong by being an offensive force, while my anticipated Garrett Atkins rebound was instead a slide below replacement level.
Diamondbacks (11): I predicted 86 wins and a trio of aces that would dominate in October. Instead, the Diamondbacks won just 70, Brandon Webb made just one start, and Max Scherzer didn’t have a breakout year. I was dead wrong about the offensive value of Justin Upton and Marc Reynolds, and even with my disappointment in GM Josh Byrnes, managed to grossly overrate a pretty bad (75-87 pythagorean record suggests they weren’t THIS bad) team.
Giants (25): Another underestimation, a club I called .500 managed to win 88 and stay in wildcard contention late into the season. The funny thing is, I was right about the offense’s problems: even with an outstanding campaign from Pablo Sandoval and some trade deadline pickups, they scored just 657 runs – only 17 more than in their 72-90 campaign of 2008. The difference? Allowing almost 150 fewer runs. I lauded their pitching staff, but hadn’t foreseen a strong defense, Matt Cain’s reduced walks, or Brian Wilson’s emergence as a legitimate closer.
Dodgers (15): I’m starting to think I shouldn’t bother predicting anything anymore. The Dodgers were quite a bit better than .500, winning 95 games and looking, to many, like the favorite to win the pennant. Some of my favorite targets for criticism did well (though each were more about their cost than being downright bad players) – Juan Pierre filled in admirably when Manny Ramirez was suspended, Casey Blake isn’t showing his age, and Randy Wolf turned in a healthy, solid season on the mound – while the bullpen pieced together a very good year.

Ironically, despite their success, I’m back to hating the Dodgers for taking the least efficient, advisable path to success and depleting their farm system. And with GM Ned Colletti unlikely to go anywhere after another playoff appearance, it looks like the Dodgers are doomed to emulate the worst Yankee teams, spending on mediocre talent and dealing away too many young players. It’s fitting, I suppose, that it takes a Hollywood team to make me turn off my brain in order to enjoy their ballpark’s beauty.