what's on my mind grapes?

A baseball blogger would be remiss in any weekly round-up that didn’t touch on the amateur player draft. The problem is, it’s incredibly difficult to make conclusive judgements on these players; considering most of those who will make the majors are several years away, even the most rigorous statistical analysis cannot render conclusions in which I’d be confident. In general, I would tend to trust scouting reports and look for established talent rather than potential, but it remains difficult to excessively praise or brutally slam any given pick.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Steven Strasburg, who has basically unanimous support as the best player in the draft. The Nationals are in a tough spot – with so little talent in the majors or in their system, and no 21-year-old free agents with Strasburg’s stuff, there’s really no better use of money apparent right now. But what will be interesting to see is whether the team can resist the pressure (from the media and their fans) to rush Strasburg to the majors. No matter how good he proves to be, the long term interests of the team demand minimizing Strasburg’s service time until a better roster is assembled at the major league level. Fans may flock to see a 2010 rookie Strasburg, but bringing him up so soon would likely mean his arbitration years would begin before the team could reach .500. Their best case, then, would be having a Cy Young contender on 80-win clubs, then seeing him consume a fifth of their payroll by the time one big free agent could make a difference.

On a completely different note, it was nice to see a pair of Sun Devils go to Ohio ballclubs in the early part of the draft. Pitcher Mike Leake has slowly improved into one of the best pitchers in college baseball, and seems like a solid bet to make it to the majors for the Reds; I’m less confident that OF Jason Kipnis will make the majors, but his plate discipline seems impressive enough that it’s easy to see why the Indians took him in the second round. (Leake aside, plate discipline seems to be the recurring theme for ASU’s best products in recent drafts; as a fan of walks and OBP, I have more than simple homer-y reasons to root for the baseball program at my alma mater.)

Mistake of the Week: There weren’t many transactions this week that caught my eye, but the Angels shuffled their bullpen in a way that makes me wonder just how much the famously “scrappy”-hitting club discounts the long ball. While Jose Arredondo has struggled quite a bit with his control – of his last 8 outings, he has had as many two-walk games (3) as walkless appearances – he is hardly what ails Los Angeles of Anaheim’s relief corps. While his 25% line drive rate is concerning, his ground ball tendencies have produced a 3.25 xFIP, and his .412 BABIP is certainly inflating his hit rate. With more strikeouts than innings pitched and no home runs, it’s tough to see Arredondo as worthy of a demotion.

The Angels’ most used reliever, Jason Bulger, has allowed 5 home runs in just over 26 innings, while walking 12. Veteran Justin Speier is virtually identical with Arredondo in walks, but with fewer strikeouts and ground balls. While less than eight innings isn’t a great sample size for Rich Thompson, it’s rather telling that he has already coughed up three home runs to accompany his four walks. Replacing Arredondo for the moment is Kevin Jepsen, who has walked 5 in 6 2/3 innings this year (and has a history of control problems). Most of Jepsen’s failures came prior to a demotion to AAA Salt Lake, where he didn’t exactly turn things around: in 18 innings, he walked 16 batters and gave up four home runs. Whether or not we accept the premise that Arredondo is useful in spite of his walk problems, there’s little excuse to demote him with so many other lousy relievers in LA’s bullpen, and with a replacement who is almost certain to hurt the team.

Shrewd Move of the Week: It’s strange to bemoan the Angels for bullpen mistakes while praising their handling of hitters, but despite the miscalculation of Arredondo’s value, they have the right idea in the demotion of 2B Howie Kendrick. His replacement, Sean Rodriguez, is almost two years younger, and has more power than Kendrick, whose value has historically relied more on batting average (which is easier to do in the minors than against major league defenses) than stable skills like taking walks. Kendrick’s BABIP this year is .269, a mark that suggests that he’s been a bit unlucky when making contact. But he is also hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls than in any other year in his major league career, which suggests that regardless of whether he’s having tough breaks, he isn’t hitting in such a way that a turnaround is a sure thing. Rodriguez, meanwhile, leads the minor leagues in home runs; while his numbers are inflated by a friendly hitting environment, he has hit too well since last year to be blocked by a struggling player with options remaining.

Why Do You Still Have A Job? Florida infielder Emilio Bonifacio has been a target of my derision for some time now; dating back to his time with Arizona, it was clear he was the longest of shots to hit major league pitching.

…and then the Marlins fell in love. There he was, all speedy and tools-ful, and it was all the franchise could do not to lean over to its friend and declare, “See that kid? One day, I’m going to trade for him.” And trade for him the Marlins did, giving up Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen for Bonifacio and a couple of random non-prospects. But their relationship has been no fairy tale. No one can say when the Marlins fell out of love, but despite a recent demotion to the bottom of the order, Emilio has managed to lead Florida in plate appearances despite an on-base percentage worse than Matt Cain’s.

Bonifacio’s presence can be explained only by his hot start, playing third base and hitting .436 (with a 1.040 OPS and four steals) through the first ten days of the season. Since then, he has been the model of consistent incompetence, getting on base at a .279 clip during May, and managing all of one extra base thus far in June. Even with negative value in the field to compound his futility, he has kept his job remarkably far into the year, a grim indictment of the Marlins’ intelligence.