it was the heat of the moment

July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 Comments
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Trade deadline live-ish blogging!

4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.

4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.

4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.

4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.

4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.

4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.

3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.

3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.

3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.

3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?

3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.

3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.

3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.

2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.

2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.

2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.

2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.

1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?

Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.

1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.

1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.

1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.

1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.

11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.

First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.

Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.

Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.

Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.

I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.

no justice in ontario

February 20, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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14. Toronto Blue Jays (57.5% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 18
Added: 1B Kevin Millar; SPs Matt Clement, Mike Maroth, and Brian Burres; Cs Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez; RP T.J. Beam; DH Randy Ruiz; OF Jason Lane
Lost: SPs A.J. Burnett and John Parrish; C Gregg Zaun; OFs Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson; IF Russ Adams
Strengths: Teams that spend big on free agent closers often seem to put too much faith in that one arm, but the Jays have a solid group of relievers around B.J. Ryan. Converted starter Scott Downs has been one of the better lefties in the league for the past two years, and the Jays’ usage of their relievers in 2008 would seem to indicate that they’re not averse to going with even more southpaws; LHPs Brian Tallet and Jesse Carlson joined Ryan and Downs as the team’s most-used relievers last year, and their production gives little reason to change that. From the right side, the team has enough depth with Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, Brandon League, and the walk-plagued Jason Frasor; after missing 2008 with shoulder surgery, right-handed reliever Casey Janssen will likely be given a shot at returning to the rotation despite a weak 2006 as a starter.

Along with standouts like 3B Scott Rolen and 2B Aaron Hill, the Jays have a surprisingly strong defensive team all around.
Weaknesses: An unremarkable lineup is getting old. Losing a player like Zaun hurts, particularly considering that the team’s new starting catcher, Rod Barajas, is 33 and has only one career season with an on-base percentage over .310. 32-year-old 1B Lyle Overbay doesn’t hit enough for his position, and SS Marco Scutaro lacks both power and, at 33, any real upside. Even one of the team’s best offensive weapons, CF Vernon Wells, can be viewed as problematic: at age 30, he is about to see his salary skyrocket thanks to an extension he signed after the 2006 season; he will make almost $100 million from 2010 through 2014, despite a downward trend in his power and below-average defensive skills.

The DH spot should be an interesting battle – the Jays could go with 21-year-old Travis Snider, a slugging left-hander who could hit 30 home runs but strike out 150 times, or may choose last season’s trade acquisition, righty Jose Bautista, who himself is a strikeout risk (albeit a slightly better bet to get on base) but lacks Snider’s power. The best solution would seem to be a platoon, but even then the team is left without the certain strong bat that one wants from a DH. If the team carries Ruiz – either along with or in place of Bautista as a right-handed DH option – they’ll be left with a bench that features one no-glove option as well as the all-glove, no-hit John McDonald. They’d likely be better off carrying Jason Lane for outfield depth.

After losing Burnett and Parrish, who was surprisingly strong in his six starts for the team, the rotation is a bit of a question mark for the Jays. Making matters worse is the elbow surgery of Shaun Marcum, who has become a nice third or fourth starter. The team will now likely give a spot to Dustin McGowan, himself recovering from shoulder surgery, and 24-year-old Jesse Litsch. Behind ace Roy Halladay, they could be a solid enough pair. But the fourth and fifth starters look to be anyone’s guess, with prospects and veterans alike setting up for a compelling spring competition.
My Stake: Toronto’s eye for cheap talent, particularly in the relief corps, is to be commended. And no matter how hard J.P. Ricciardi tries to make stat geeks hate him, he will always be perceived as a “Moneyball guy” because of his time working under Billy Beane in Oakland. The problem, however, is that apparently, Beane’s shit works neither in the playoffs nor in the AL East; risk management is a wise policy, but Ricciardi has been far too timid a GM in an environment that demands going big or going home. Instead of going after guys with real upsides, Ricciardi has contented himself with ill-advised extensions, unremarkable trade acquisitions like Jose Bautista, and starting players like Lyle Overbay; planning to be “pretty solid” is a good way to avoid the ignominy of 90-loss seasons, but a poor way to give fans any hope of breakout success. Were Ricciardi to model himself after Kevin Towers – whose Padres endured a horrible 2008 after a nice run above .500 on a small budget – and buy low on underrated players and the right veterans, the Jays could be quite a team. But this winter’s acquisitions, with the possible exceptions of Burres and Clement (neither of whom is a particularly great gamble), demonstrate how enamored he is with saving face rather than moving the team forward.

Still, he did manage to keep the team a fairly reliable third place when Tampa Bay was a pushover, and there’s something to be said for achieving reliable respectability, even if one prefers to see the team at least take a shot at improving rather than treading water every year. I love the city of Toronto, and the SkyDome– I mean, “Rogers Centre”– is the best roofed stadium I’ve had the privilege of visiting. But until they become more aggressive in overhauling the roster – or at least get back to their classic logo, which continues to have a retro charm that is far greater than the snooze-tastic mediocrity they currently use – I just can’t place them any higher than this.
‘09 Predictions: The Jays have to hope that 2B Aaron Hill can return strong from post-concussion syndrome. He was having a down year when the injury ended his season in May, but his strong glove and relative youth, at 27, make him a better bet going forward than Joe Inglett, who was himself a fine fill-in last year. Even with Hill, however, there just isn’t enough left on this team after the injuries and free agent losses that followed a surprisingly strong 2008. Despite their quality bullpen and the front of the rotation, I can only give them 78 wins. If they do much worse than that, maybe Ricciardi will wisely realize that there isn’t much to lose in going after players like Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets, or Rocco Baldelli.

‘08 rooting hierarchy iv: there’s winners, and there’s losers, but they ain’t no big deal

March 27, 2008 at 10:36 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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18. St. Louis Cardinals 41.38% unweighted; 47.91% weighted (60/30/42.86).
Last year: #10. 78-84, 3rd in NL Central.
In 2008: It’s not hard to remember the Cardinals as perennial contenders who were widely respected through the baseball world. Yet they have fallen fast, and new GM John Mozeliak has given no indication that he knows how to turn the organization around; until they show signs of life, St. Louis is not redeemed in my eyes by past success under a different GM. Strokes of bad luck – injuries to Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, the team’s two best players – do not excuse giving a so-so pitcher like Russ Springer twice his market value, nor do they negate signing Joel Pineiro or giving a job to incapable-of-hitting Cesar Izturis. Still, the Cardinals have done a few things right – namely, giving incentive-filled contracts to starters Matt Clement (recovering from shoulder surgery) and Kyle Lohse (recovering from thinking he could get a four-year deal), and getting D’Angelo Jimenez to hopefully oust Brendan Ryan from the team’s utility infielder role – and therefore had a better winter than some teams.
Prediction: 71-91, 5th in NL Central

17. Toronto Blue Jays 44.83% unweighted; 46.81% weighted (50/44.44/43.75).
Last year: #18. 83-79, 3rd in AL East.
In 2008: I’m not sure if there’s a team about whom I care less than the Blue Jays. J.P. Ricciardi is supposedly a sabermetrics-friendly GM, but he is nowhere near the other “stat guys” running teams. The Jays alienated many sabermetricians, to be sure, by signing the legendarily overrated David Eckstein (ironically, the contract actually wasn’t that out of line with Eck’s abilities), and Ricciardi has been known to make moves that Billy Beane would never consider. Yet as is a better habit of his, he signed several low-profile players – not stars, nor huge assets, but solid contributors – to deals far below the market would have expected. This is similar to the club as a whole: plenty of small things to like, despite a few high-profile negatives; ultimately, it’s a hallmark of a bland, boring team that inspires neither love nor antipathy.
Prediction: 82-80; 4th in AL East

16. New York Mets 48.28% unweighted; 41.05% weighted (25/54.55/50).
Last year: #13. 88-74, 2nd in NL East.
In 2008: The Mets are a frustratingly inconsistent club. This offseason, they overpaid Luis Castillo – speedsters in their mid-thirties are seldom a wise investment – and traded 23-year-old Lastings Milledge for a bad catcher and an older outfielder. But they also saw, where Milwaukee did not, the value of reliever Matt Wise (and negative value of Guillermo Mota); they found a bargain in reserve infielder Marlon Anderson; and for whatever reason, were the team to benefit from Bill Smith’s willingness to take the third-best package for Johan Santana. It’s not a staggering display of front office talent, but I’ve historically had a soft spot for the franchise, and whether by luck or by design, they pulled off one of the best trades of the year.
Prediction: 89-73; 1st in NL East, lose NLDS

15. Detroit Tigers 51.72% unweighted; 58.5% weighted (75/44.44/50).
Last year: #8. 88-74, 2nd in AL Central.
In 2008: It’s hard to attack the Tigers on their front office merits, particularly in the wake of their mind-boggling bargain extension of Miguel Cabrera. Yet while they’ve become an offensive juggernaut without spending on the wrong hitters, they reside in the same division as the Indians. Academic respect doesn’t always translate to active support, and unless my native ballclub does something to squander my fandom, the Tigers’ rival status vastly outweighs their competence.
Prediction: 91-71; 1st in AL Central, lose ALDS

14. Chicago Cubs 55.17% unweighted; 63.89% weighted (80/40/57.14).
Last year: #24. 85-77, 1st in NL Central, lost NLDS.
In 2008: For a contending team with rather apparent weak spots, the Cubs were surprisingly quiet this winter. Of course, learning from some of the teams reviewed to this point, standing pat is sometimes a valid strategy. But what Chicago’s winter lacked in bulk, it made up for in quality. The biggest free agent splash was Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, whose signing may have had the biggest rooting hierarchy impact of any single transaction. While it hurt to see the Padres miss out on such a promising import, the Cubs have earned my respect and interest by that move alone. It doesn’t hurt that their other major moves over the winter included dumping the contract of Jacque Jones, bringing back Kerry Wood, and getting Jon Lieber to fill out the rotation at a reasonable cost. Like the Orioles, the Cubs have a track record of great concern, but with so many teams showing more recent incompetence, I’m willing to give some leniency until they overpay another player like Jason Marquis.
Prediction: 92-70; 1st in NL Central; lose World Series

13. Colorado Rockies 58.62% unweighted; 56.92% weighted (50/63.64/57.14).
Last year: #23. 90-73, 2nd in NL West, lost World Series.
In 2008: In case David happens to read this entry: I’m well aware that the Rockies have really turned things around and have some incredible homegrown talent. On top of that, they’ve been prudently aggressive in getting players into long-term deals. Yet their taste in free agents is often mind-boggling – this winter’s signings include Mark Redman, Kip Wells, Yorvit Torrealba, and Luis Vizcaino – and on a more subjective level, Clint Hurdle is one of the most annoying managers I’ve seen.
Prediction: 82-80; 4th in NL West

2007 rooting hierarchy iii: i’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me?

March 28, 2007 at 3:21 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 Comment
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Today’s entry is a painfully tedious one: the below-average teams for whom I don’t see any reason to dislike.

21. Pittsburgh Pirates I have been reminded that I’m allowed to harbor some antipathy for an unconsummated Nate Cornejo/Mike Gonzalez trade that I overheard while at an Arizona Fall League game. But harboring Pirates antipathy is like holding a grudge against Dennis Kucinich or something – they’re too far from any sort of relevance to waste any thought.
20. Seattle Mariners David and Buck both see this as baseball’s third-least competent organization. It’s hard to disagree. But the rooting hierarchy isn’t about competence – the Mariners’ pitifulness, combined with a likable city and a few likable players, gets them all the way to the 33rd percentile.
19. San Francisco Giants Perhaps the ultimate case of likability prevailing in the face of incompetence, and almost entirely for city-based reasons. The players certainly aren’t favorites, and the ballpark, while scenic, isn’t an absolute great. But I just love San Francisco and, by extension, the team avoids being any lower. They sadly did allow the Cubs to sign SP Ted Lilly, so the dream of a Lilly-Cain double-header tandem and Veronica Mars promotion seems dead. It’s fair to say I have different dreams than, say, Gandhi.
18. Toronto Blue Jays What can I say about GM J.P. Ricciardi? Check that: what can I say about J.P. Ricciardi that isn’t a profanity? A former disciple of A’s GM Billy Beane, one expects stat-geekiness and competence. Instead, one gets flashes of genius (signing SPs Tomo Ohka and John Thomson to bargain contracts in an inflated market) in a record of horrible decisions (releasing Thomson in favor of proven failure Josh Towers, hugely overpaying the soon-past-peak Vernon Wells).
17. Atlanta Braves On organizational competence alone, one has to concede the Braves should be in the top 10 – they had a dynasty without overpaying and a solid farm system. But memories of their 1995 World Series triumph over the Indians remain painful, and more recently, they are using Bob Wickman, their third-best reliever, in what is assumed to be the most important bullpen role. “Begrudging respect” is the name of the game, though, as they also signed SP Mark Redman to a spectacularly small contract for what should be solid #4-5 starting.
16. Kansas City Royals Perhaps the icon of “too useless to dislike,” new Royals GM Dayton Moore has not done much to make me expect a turnaround, and gave SP Gil Meche one of the most mind-boggling contracts I have ever seen. It wasn’t an easy mistake to make – Meche is easily the worst signing of the winter when we factor in the “he’s terrible” consensus of stats and reputation. But still, the team has a scenic ballpark and is somewhat lovable in its lameness.

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