all the small things

July 30, 2009 at 4:42 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
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While the Red Sox continue trampling my soul return to being awesome, a roundup of some of this week’s smaller trades (and by “small” I mean “occurred since my last blog and/or don’t involve many players;” several of these guys are important parts on contending teams or real prospects).

Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson.
The Dodgers filled a significant area of need, and did so with the best option on the market. Sherrill has two more years of arbitration, and should be an excellent left-handed setup man like Will Ohman and Hong-Chih Kuo were supposed to be. It is, however, worth noting that Sherrill battled severe control issues in 2008 and 2006, so he’s hardly a sure thing; it’s also significant that he’s 32 years old, and could be washed up by the time he hits free agency. This is clearly a win-now move, though, and with the Phillies upgrading their rotation, it’s understandable why Los Angeles was willing to risk those things for the potential to bolster their bullpen.

Bell is a significant price to pay for a reliever with such question marks, though; the 22-year-old looks like a nice power hitter in the making, and has adjusted well to AA. If he can field enough to stick at third, the O’s got a pretty nice hitter here for a pitcher unlikely to be on a contending Baltimore club. Johnson’s a run-of-the-mill low-minors pitching prospect; he’s 21 and has been in the system since 2005, only reaching AA this year. He seems to have some strikeout potential, but gives up too many HRs to look like anything but organizational fodder.

Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson.
Are you @%$^ing kidding me? Giants GM Brian Sabean has done some weird, stupid things in his time, but this one still came as a shock. Sanchez is a nice add and a lock to contribute more than the Giants’ AAA players who have attempted to man second base (not as much an upgrade from Juan Uribe, but that’s beside the point). He’ll add a little speed, a little pop, a little defense, and give the wildcard-leading Giants a slightly better shot at October.

That’s not enough. I’m okay dealing prospects for impact players who could increase one’s chances of a World Series berth, but the Giants cannot be considered one of the NL’s stronger playoff clubs, and Sanchez only serves to fill a hole. That in mind, the price was absolutely staggering. Alderson was San Francisco’s #2 pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner. While low strikeout totals seem to undermine a lot of the hype around him, he’s still an exorbitant price to pay for an okay second baseman; even if we accept that Alderson isn’t the front-of-the-rotation starter that some believe he is, his value on the market ought to have been a fair deal greater than a minor pickup like Sanchez.

Cincinnati Reds traded RP Robert Manuel to Seattle Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien.
This is one that makes decent sense for both teams. Balentien is a year younger, but has thus far not translated some translated minor-league power into major-league hitting success. He’s a strikeout liability, but perhaps the National League and a friendlier home park will help him rediscover his stroke. The Reds have suffered injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson, so it makes sense to add another young guy who still could turn into a long-term asset.

Manuel seems closer to being a useful major leaguer, though, so I give the edge in this trade to Seattle. The 26-year-old didn’t get much time in a surprisingly strong Reds bullpen, but his minor league numbers make him an interesting relief prospect. To be successful in the AL, he’ll probably need to find the strikeout ability he showed as one of the Southern League’s best pitchers last year, but his control makes him a nice asset even if he doesn’t blow batters away.

Boston Red Sox traded “1B”/”OF” Mark Kotsay to Chicago White Sox for CF Brian Anderson.
27-year-old Anderson can’t hit and is overrated in the field. 33-year-old Kotsay can’t hit, can’t field, and was designated for assignment, giving the Red Sox a limited window to trade him; he will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Red Sox traded sure garbage for probable garbage that has a slim chance of turning into something of small value.

going to california

July 27, 2009 at 11:35 pm | In Baseball | 3 Comments
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Cleveland Indians traded 1B Ryan Garko to San Francisco Giants for P Scott Barnes.

I’ve been harsh on Garko in the past, but he’s put together a pretty solid 2008 campaign. It wouldn’t be insane to call him a roughly average first baseman right now, and there’s value to average players. Garko can certainly be a weapon against left-handed pitchers, and surprisingly, his defense has improved this year. In short, he’s a solid role player on a team that wants to make the playoffs.

In baseball terms, the problem is that Garko won’t counted on for a limited role. He’s more likely to supplant the execrable Travis Ishikawa on a full-time basis, or at least get a good share of starts against even righties. There, he becomes another below-average starter for the Giants, and for that… he came at a significant price.

Starting pitcher Scott Barnes is old for his league, but only in his second pro season; it’s definitely worth noting his South Atlantic League numbers from 2008: 41 strikeouts to just 7 walks in under 33 innings with no home runs. He’s not been as dominant in the California league this year – 99 strikeouts, 29 walks, 7 homers in 98 innings – but it’s clear that there’s some pitching aptitude here. With strikeout ability and respectable control, he looks like he could at least turn into a useful left-handed reliever down the line.

In short, the Giants gave up a real prospect for Garko, who is far from a rare commodity on the trading block. Most conclusively damning the Giants in my mind: Garko’s contract status. The 28-year-old is heading into his first year of salary arbitration, which suddenly takes away his major advantage over options with more reliable offensive track records: cost. Looking at arbitration figures for first basemen, it seems safe to say that Garko will be making around $3-4 million next year. For a guy limited to the easiest spot on the diamond, whose age 27 season (last year) saw an uninspiring .273/.346/.404 line, and who ideally would be platooned with a lefty, that doesn’t look like much of a bargain contrasted against the sort of talents that might be found on the free agent market or by taking on another team’s contract.

If Garko’s defensive improvements this year hold up, and he can avoid another depressed offensive output, this might work out for the Giants. But Garko is unlikely to get better, and with his salary soon to escalate, it certainly appears that in pursuit of the wild card, San Francisco gave up a bit too good of a prospect. Garko isn’t the kind of player a team is likely to miss – whether that team is Cleveland, having traded him, or a hypothetical San Francisco, had they missed out on acquiring him – and represents only a tenuous upgrade from what the Giants could have gotten out of, say, Nate Schierholtz.

why don’t we ever believe ourselves?

April 26, 2009 at 11:08 pm | In Baseball | 3 Comments
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We’re coming in close to the deadline here, but it has been a busy weekend – a little time at The Prog (special shout-out to Suege, whose disposable income is exceeded only by his generosity, or maybe vice-versa), a little spring cleaning, some family commitments, plus some four-hour games too riveting to allow multitasking. But if ever there were a time when I could blog intensely about baseball, it’s now, when the Red Sox are making like Adam Lambert and looking so far beyond the competition that… wait, an American Idol analogy? That’s the best I can do?

Clearly, writing everything but this intro drained me, and that’s even though I lack enough conviction in any of my reflections to make a prediction this week; I’m as worn down as the Yankees’ bullpen.  Hey, that’s more like it…!

Underrated Cut (Or, “This Is As Pointless As Not Bothering To Pick Up The Hundred-Dollar Bill You Just Dropped In A Puddle”): Not surprisingly, the Washington Nationals aren’t the brightest team out there. In the case of reliever Saul Rivera, their bad luck saved them from their stupidity; after being optioned down, Rivera returned to Washington when fellow reliever Joe Beimel ended up on the disabled list. There’s no question that Rivera has had a terrible year – with two home runs and as many walks as strikeouts in under eight innings, he’s hurt the Nationals tremendously. But sending him to the minors was a premature move; after all, his problems have come in a very small sample size, and he plays for the Nationals. Rivera was a solid late-innings guy in the past two seasons, and while he is too old to turn into anything more than that, he has plenty of value to a franchise starved for pitching. Instead, the hapless club seems to prefer retreads like Kip Wells and Julian Tavarez, or respectively failed and iffy prospects like Mike Hinckley and Garrett Mock – whose walks and strikeouts are no better than Rivera’s this year. That the team immediately recalled Rivera, whose bad outcomes may stem largely from a .481 BABIP, after placing Beimel on the DL would seem to validate that there isn’t an injury issue at hand, and that they simply became impatient and thought Rivera wasn’t one of their seven best relievers. It’s very little wonder that they’re baseball’s losingest team right now, and I can only hope that a club like San Diego is inquiring about Rivera at a low price.

Underrated Addition (Or, “Incompetent People Haven’t Turned To A Choice This Obvious Since Donald Rumsfeld Was Secretary of Defense”): There weren’t many players changing teams this week, so I’ll highlight Brian Bannister’s return to the big-league club in Kansas City as a very good, if very overdue, move. While the Royals’ pitching has been more than a little surprising in its quality this year, there was no reason to keep Horacio Ramirez as a fifth starter when the 28-year-old Bannister was performing adequately at Triple-A Omaha. Bannister had significant home run problems last year, but his solid rookie year in 2007 gives me reason to think he can still be a nice back-of-the-rotation arm. At the very least, he’s a safer bet than the perpetually usefulness-challenged Ramirez – and in a division with so many contenders, even one win of improvement could make a difference if the Royals somehow keep getting by with such a weak offense. (For the record, I still scoff at their status as a trendy postseason dark horse, but with Zack Greinke getting help from Gil Meche and Kyle Davies [!] at the front of the rotation, it’s not as absurd a concept as it was a month ago.)

Why Do You Still Have A Job? (Or, “They Need This Guy Like Kat Dennings Needs A Tan”) The Javier Lopez Award for Excellence in Futility could very easily be called “Giant of the Week,” and I was sorely tempted to just give it to San Francisco GM Brian Sabean. But because monumentally bad ballplayers can quickly become non-issues, I’ll err in favor of spotlighting one of several deserving “baseball players:” first baseman Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa played seven seasons in the Giants’ farm system, and rarely showed much reason to think of him as a top prospect. It’s not that he has no record of hitting (2008 was a career year), but that his defensive deficiencies limit him to playing first (if that; at this point, he may not cut it even there). As a first baseman, reasonable hitting expectations from his minor league record would make him an awful starter… and his 2009 year has been terrible beyond any expectations. In 42 at-bats, he has managed just nine hits – and only two that weren’t singles. His on-base percentage is the worst among MLB first basemen with over 5 at-bats, and his slugging percentage is in the bottom five. With his thirteen strikeouts to one walk, his average on balls in play stands at a very reasonable .310, giving no reason to believe this dreadful start is just bad luck. With no homers and so little plate discipline, there’s no explanation other than “he’s playing horribly,” and no excuse for the Giants not to simply sign a veteran until Ishikawa shows that he can come close to replacement level.

Question of the Week: Is Erik Bedard back? Yes. Bedard missed most of his first season in Seattle thanks to shoulder problems, but through four starts in 2009, he is every bit the ace for whom they believed they traded several very good young players. With more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and just more than a tenth as many walks, Bedard has a perfectly sustainable BABIP of .294. The only way in which he has been lucky is the low rate of home runs on fly balls, but even with a normalized rate, Bedard should complement Felix Hernandez very well at the front of the rotation. There is, of course, the caveat of small sample size, but Bedard’s dominance is as valid as anything one can conclude in April. His value doesn’t absolve former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi of a bad trade – the thirty-year-old is heading into free agency, and came at far too high a cost of younger, cost-controlled talent – but gives new GM Jack Zduriencik an All-Star caliber arm to keep or deal as he sees fit.

Player of the Week (Or, “I Haven’t Seen Anything This Hard-Hitting Since That CNN Reporter Showed How Clueless Those Tea Partiers Were”): It should be noted that this award is by no means an objective reflection on who has had the best week, but rather a spotlight on someone who has made a large impression this week. Objective measures of hot weeks are the sort of unequivocal facts that have made me hesitant to blog about baseball, so while it’s hardly the best analytical method, it’s nice to just take a player who may not be getting his due and give him, in my tiny corner of cyberspace, that due.

Braves catcher David Ross was limited to eight at-bats with the Red Sox last year, and because I felt he was shortchanged, I’m pleased to see him hitting this year – not to spite Boston, who are doing quite nicely with a resurgent Jason Varitek, but because he is too good a player to stay so unnoticed. While, like everything here, it comes with the caveat that it’s a very small sample, his Atlanta career has gone amazingly well so far. In just eighteen at-bats, he has four extra-base hits, including two homers, and has walked six times to just four strikeouts. There’s no way he continues his .417 BABIP and posts a full-season OPS well over 1.000, but with Brian McCann on the DL, Ross may finally get the playing time to establish himself as one of baseball’s best backup backstops.

molina, where you goin’ to?

February 9, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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25. San Francisco Giants (7.23% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking:
20
Added: SP Randy Johnson; SS Edgar Renteria; RPs Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry, Justin Miller, and Luis Perdomo; 1B Josh Phelps; IF Juan Uribe
Lost: SP Kevin Correia; RPs Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chulk, and Tyler Walker; SS Omar Vizquel and Ivan Ochoa; 3B Rich Aurilia
Strengths: 24-year-old Tim Lincecum is the defending NL Cy Young winner, and shows every indication that he will continue to be one of baseball’s best pitchers.  Behind him, Matt Cain, Johnson, and Jonathan Sanchez should be one of the best 1-4 rotations in the league.

While Brian Wilson’s abilities are stretched as a closer, the team actually looks to have a solid bullpen.  Affeldt’s signing bumps Jack Taschner to the #2 lefty, which is a more realistic role for Taschner and pushes the erratic Alex Hinshaw back to AAA.  Similarly, while the 35-year-old Howry is not a major asset himself, he should keep innings from going to the likes of Merkin Valdez, Geno Espineli, or Perdomo, whose walk rates in the minors loom as a major issue.  Spring training invitee Miller should add even more depth.
Weaknesses: The lineup is far and away the worst in baseball.  The Giants scored 640 runs in 2008 despite playing in a park that was hitter-friendly, and there’s little reason to think they’ll do much better in 2009.  Free agent signing Renteria is a better hitter than departed SS Omar Vizquel, but came at a high cost ($18.5 million over two years).  When one’s most valuable offensive asset is LF Fred Lewis – who boasts a career OPS+ of 105 – one has a problem. I seem to remember the team having a great slugger whose worst OPS+ in San Francisco was 155, but I don’t really know what happened there…

The offense is an impotent blend of veterans and low-ceiling prospects, and it comes as little surprise that multiple positions will be wide open during spring training (and, with the unimpressive candidates involved, could remain far from settled through the season).  John Bowker would offer a pitiful bat for a first baseman, but seems to have just as much of a chance at the job as Travis Ishikawa or fifth outfielder Nate Schierholtz (probably the best choice, he would still be among the worst starting first basemen in baseball).  At second, Kevin Frandsen looks like the best of several bad options, including the powerless Emmanuel Burriss (whose 2008 looks like a fluke considering his minor league numbers) and incumbent Eugenio Velez.
My Stake: I’ve stated on multiple occasions that I’ve always wanted to be a Giants fan, largely out of fondness for the city of San Francisco.  But at this point, I just can’t muster up any sympathy for the team, nor will I derive any pleasure from their success.  They’ve been an aging model of futility for too long, and the massive amounts of money they’ve sunk into free agents like Renteria, CF Aaron Rowand, and SP Barry Zito could very well have created a competitive team in a weak division if put to smarter use.
‘09 Predictions: Because they’re in such a weak division, the Giants actually have a decent chance at contention – a fact of which the rest of the NL West should be ashamed.  There is a silver lining to how awful the lineup is – there are several positions at which upgrading shouldn’t be too difficult.  If they don’t go after one of the remaining free agents on the market, it seems likely that they’ll try to trade for a hitter, though it’s uncertain what pieces they might be able to use in such a swap.  As it is, I’m willing to call this a .500 club for 2009 on the strength of the pitching staff and the high probability that they add a bat.

‘08 rooting hierarchy ii: why do you let me stay here?

March 25, 2008 at 9:41 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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While the Dodgers (and to a lesser extent lately, the Yankees) mask their front office blunders with high payrolls and overpaid players who still help their teams win, I can see no reason why the GMs of these teams keep their jobs.

27. Cincinnati Reds 10.34% unweighted; 4.97% weighted (0/10/14.29).
Last year: #26. 72-90, 5th in NL Central.

In 2008: Just when promising young players like Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce looked ready to contribute, the Reds went and hired veteran-favoring manager Dusty Baker. Baker, who opposes “clogging the bases” by letting slow players walk, is rather stubborn in his ignorance of reality, and is likely to hurt slow, walk-loving Adam Dunn’s production (as well as impede the development of Votto and Bruce). Amusingly, bullpen-fetishist GM Wayne Krivsky let the Padres (by way of the Marlins) pick up reliever Carlos Guevara in the Rule 5 draft, instead choosing to invest the team’s modest resources in “proven closer” Francisco Cordero and, less expectedly but more effectively, Jeremy Affeldt. The Reds have enough young players that a surge past 80 wins is possible, but under Baker, it seems particularly unlikely.
Prediction: 76-86, 3rd in NL Central

26. Seattle Mariners 13.79% unweighted; 12.58% weighted (0/20/12.5).
Last year: #20. 88-74, 2nd in AL West.

In 2008: I must confess that I did a bit of a double-take when I compared my Mariners prediction (which assumes the team refuses to give up early, and trades away its remaining prospects in a futile run at the division) to last year’s record. But as it turns, out, 2007’s “success” was largely the work of smoke and mirrors; the team was outscored by 19 runs over the course of the season. Even so, they decided to go for it in 2008, and Seattle fans will rue that decision for years to come. At first, trading reliever George Sherrill and prospect Adam Jones (and additional pitching prospects) for starter Erik Bedard didn’t seem that terrible. But on a team with many fading veterans, the 22-year-old Jones was one of few bright spots for the future, while Sherrill remains one of the most fantastic underrated relievers in baseball. Mortgaging the future to win in the present is one thing, but the Mariners essentially gave up their best prospect for a small upgrade whose salary makes the deal almost a wash for 2008. GM Bill Bavasi seems to have no idea where his team is in the cycle of building toward competitiveness, and with that in mind, how can he possibly know where the team is going? Combining an affinity for overrated, mediocre, and useless veterans with an undervaluation of young talent, Bavasi has scuttled the Mariners organization and gives no indication of an ability to right his ship.
Prediction: 80-82, 2nd in AL West

25. Houston Astros 17.24% unweighted; 16.76% weighted (20/10/21.43).
Last year: #27. 73-89, 4th in NL Central.

In 2008: In an active offseason, the Astros signed several players (Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, Doug Brocail, and the returning Brad Ausmus and Mark Loretta) who are expected to contribute next to nothing on the field. Yet wasted roster spots are less notable than some of the trades the club made to no apparent benefit. In a series of inexplicable events, the team ended up dealing away inconsistent closer Brad Lidge, solid setup man Chad Qualls, underrated 30-year-old outfielder Luke Scott, and assorted prospects, gaining “proven closer” Jose Valverde, former steroid-using 32-year-old shortstop Miguel Tejada, fourth outfielder Michael Bourn, and middle reliever Geoff Geary. The combination of Scott, Qualls, and Lidge will make less than Tejada alone in 2008, and the up-and-coming Scott has five more seasons before free agency. I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how a team could make such moves – actively playing the trade market but not helping itself at all – but there is no possible empirical, analytical justification.
Prediction: 70-92, 6th in NL Central

24. San Francisco Giants 20.69% unweighted; 21.54% weighted (25/18.18/21.43).
Last year: #19. 71-91, 5th in NL West.

In 2008: The Giants’ biggest move this winter was the damaging yet understandable decision to let Barry Bonds go as a free agent. It’s not so much Bonds’ criminal charges that justify the move as it is San Francisco’s general futility; the team’s inability to get to .500 is about as sure a thing as there is in sports, and spending extra money on an annoying veteran didn’t make that much sense. Of course, GM Brian Sabean would have been well served by remembering this before throwing more than five million dollars at 41-year-old Omar Vizquel, who can’t hit and is already injured, and giving a five-year contract to Aaron Rowand, whose defense has slipped and whose offense is unlikely to return to its 2007 level. When we consider the unimpressive non-prospects who round out the roster and last winter’s insane contract to Barry Zito, it seems that only their futility and harmlessness (and the superb Tim Lincecum) let a team with the incompetence of the Giants rank this highly on my list.
Prediction: 71-91, 5th in NL West

2007 rooting hierarchy iii: i’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me?

March 28, 2007 at 3:21 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 Comment
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Today’s entry is a painfully tedious one: the below-average teams for whom I don’t see any reason to dislike.

21. Pittsburgh Pirates I have been reminded that I’m allowed to harbor some antipathy for an unconsummated Nate Cornejo/Mike Gonzalez trade that I overheard while at an Arizona Fall League game. But harboring Pirates antipathy is like holding a grudge against Dennis Kucinich or something – they’re too far from any sort of relevance to waste any thought.
20. Seattle Mariners David and Buck both see this as baseball’s third-least competent organization. It’s hard to disagree. But the rooting hierarchy isn’t about competence – the Mariners’ pitifulness, combined with a likable city and a few likable players, gets them all the way to the 33rd percentile.
19. San Francisco Giants Perhaps the ultimate case of likability prevailing in the face of incompetence, and almost entirely for city-based reasons. The players certainly aren’t favorites, and the ballpark, while scenic, isn’t an absolute great. But I just love San Francisco and, by extension, the team avoids being any lower. They sadly did allow the Cubs to sign SP Ted Lilly, so the dream of a Lilly-Cain double-header tandem and Veronica Mars promotion seems dead. It’s fair to say I have different dreams than, say, Gandhi.
18. Toronto Blue Jays What can I say about GM J.P. Ricciardi? Check that: what can I say about J.P. Ricciardi that isn’t a profanity? A former disciple of A’s GM Billy Beane, one expects stat-geekiness and competence. Instead, one gets flashes of genius (signing SPs Tomo Ohka and John Thomson to bargain contracts in an inflated market) in a record of horrible decisions (releasing Thomson in favor of proven failure Josh Towers, hugely overpaying the soon-past-peak Vernon Wells).
17. Atlanta Braves On organizational competence alone, one has to concede the Braves should be in the top 10 – they had a dynasty without overpaying and a solid farm system. But memories of their 1995 World Series triumph over the Indians remain painful, and more recently, they are using Bob Wickman, their third-best reliever, in what is assumed to be the most important bullpen role. “Begrudging respect” is the name of the game, though, as they also signed SP Mark Redman to a spectacularly small contract for what should be solid #4-5 starting.
16. Kansas City Royals Perhaps the icon of “too useless to dislike,” new Royals GM Dayton Moore has not done much to make me expect a turnaround, and gave SP Gil Meche one of the most mind-boggling contracts I have ever seen. It wasn’t an easy mistake to make – Meche is easily the worst signing of the winter when we factor in the “he’s terrible” consensus of stats and reputation. But still, the team has a scenic ballpark and is somewhat lovable in its lameness.

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