it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
grab that cash with both hands and make a stash
July 29, 2009 at 9:12 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Ben Francisco, Carlos Carrasco, Cliff Lee, Indians, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, Phillies
Cleveland Indians traded SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies for SPs Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp, C Lou Marson, and SS Jason Donald.
What this deal is: a nice job by the Phillies to add a very good arm to a rotation that could be good, but has underachieved a bit. I’m relieved that Lee isn’t heading to Fenway, where righties might take advantage of the Green Monster, but still figured he’d cost more than the Phillies paid, even with his question marks (I heard an analyst say that Lee will be fine in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philly, because he’s “a strikeout pitcher;” that’s patently untrue as he hasn’t had even 7 K per 9 since 2004).
What it’s not: good for the Indians’ future.
I’m not one for sports talk radio, but I had to listen in on Cleveland’s AM stations today and hear the reactions to this one. One sentence I heard summed things up this well: “Mark Shapiro isn’t dumb.”
The Indians GM is indeed no fool, which makes it hard to see past the salary dump aspect of this move. Lee will make $8 million next year, and that was clearly too much for the Indians to retain the 2008 Cy Young winner. Francisco’s not due for arbitration until next winter, so his inclusion here looks more about opening an opportunity for prospect Matt LaPorta (and giving Philly a solid bat off the bench) than about money. Cutting expenditures has been expected for the Indians, but the prospect package here makes it look like building the farm system is a clear second to saving money.
For Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays wanted a package including some from the group of pitchers J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor. All but Drabek look to be worth the hype, in my eyes; the 21-year-old has only reached AA this year and seems neither overpowering nor exceptionally able to locate his pitches. Of that group, I’d find Michael Taylor the most exceptional, and understand if Philly only wanted to deal, say, Happ and Brown.
But because of the Indians’ willingness to settle, they didn’t have to part with either to get a slightly worse pitcher who makes roughly half as much money. Instead, the Tribe added a less advanced, right-handed version of Happ in Carrasco; they’ll have to hope that the most polished product in the group harnesses his stuff a bit more and becomes the #4-5 starter that Happ already is.
The more interesting arm is Knapp, who has struck out more than a better per inning at the low minors. Not yet 19, he’s got plenty of time to develop into a very nice pitcher, and if he stays healthy, he’s by far the most likely to be a significant piece of a Cleveland club. …except he’s already battling shoulder soreness this year.
Donald will soon be 25, and took big steps back after moving up to AAA; his power disappeared and his on-base percentage is a paltry .297, though that could be explained by a knee injury that led to surgery earlier this season. Finally, there’s Marson, who had a great 2008 but lost some of his patience and power this year. I still like his discipline if not his power, but his ceiling doesn’t seem high. I’d guess that his presence signals the imminent departure of C Victor Martinez (and/or backup C Kelly Shoppach, who’s due for a raise in arbitration this winter). Anyone who can stay behind the plate has a pretty low offensive threshold, but he’s yet another player on a down year.
And that is, in a nutshell, the problem with this deal. The Indians acquired not one player who hasn’t seen his value fall lately; buying low is one thing, but taking four prospects who are having down and/or injured years just seems unnecessarily risky, particularly since none of them were as promising as someone like Taylor without weighing these problems. In my mind, this package could be seen as roughly fair if the Phillies’ prospects were healthy and performing up to expectations.
Cleveland opted for some guys who have low ceilings but are close to the majors, possibly because they can then get away with not paying experienced players in the near future. Young and raw, Knapp is the exception, but it seems foolish to take only one player with star upside for a reigning Cy Young. The Indians didn’t have to make this deal – Lee could have been held another two days to try to squeeze out a better trade, or even shopped this winter. They had leverage in their ability to walk away from the proposal, but it’s very hard to look at the final result and think they properly applied that leverage.
won’t you please, please help me?
July 26, 2009 at 4:11 pm | In Baseball | 4 CommentsTags: Cliff Lee, Indians
Cliff Lee deserves a contending club. I greatly hope it’s not the Rays or Yankees, because it’s pretty clear that Lee’s 6-9 record this year isn’t a matter of being a poor pitcher – and this has been made clearer with his last two games being 9-inning, one-run affairs. The latter start was won only thanks to a 2-run 9th ending a shutout against the Indians, which made me wonder: exactly how bad has the offense been at supporting Lee?
The answer: pretty damn bad. The Tribe is averaging 5.03 runs scored per game, fifth in the American League. That’s actually quite good, considering how many injuries and subpar seasons have been had in Cleveland. But let’s look at Lee’s 21 starts. In those games, the Indians offense has managed just 3.48 runs per game, which would make them worse than any team in baseball.
The numbers get even more staggering when we narrow the focus to Lee’s starts that were lost. In those 14 games, the Indians scored just 32 runs – 2.29 per game.
Lee’s had a couple legitimately bad outings – two seven-run starts – but he’s clearly better than a 6-9 pitcher (if you’re to give any credence at all to win-loss record for a pitcher, which is itself a pretty foolish move – but I digress). He’s been tagged with losses in four three-run outings, one two-run outing, and in an 8-inning, one-run start (he also got a no-decision against Boston with 8 shutout innings). He has not received a win in any game where he surrendered more than one run (in 2008, 12 of his 22 wins saw more than one run charged to Lee).
Either this guy is really unlucky, or he’s done something awful to draw the ire of the entire Indians offense.
bust a move
July 24, 2009 at 8:37 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: Indians, Red Sox, A's, Padres, Cardinals, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Pirates, Orioles, Matt Holliday, Mark Kotsay, Julio Lugo, Brett Wallace, Chris Duncan, Adam LaRoche, Rafael Betancourt, Cla Meredith, Oscar Salazar, Felipe Lopez
Because trades are starting to come steadily, I’m abandoning my “Sunday roundup” format for the next week. There’s no real reason I can’t give some succinct transaction reviews during the week, particularly since the trade deadline falls on a Friday and I’ll likely have waning enthusiasm two days later for most of the news.
Pujols is no longer alone: The Cardinals, realizing that their offense is basically Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, wisely pursued the best outfielder presumed to be on the trade market in Oakland’s Matt Holliday. Holliday’s numbers have slipped noticably since leaving Colorado, but he’ll still bring more to the plate than St. Louis’ alternatives. The question, however, is whether it was worth it – Holliday will be a free agent after the season, and the prospect cost looks rather steep for a few months of a non-elite player.3B Brett Wallace seems overhyped for someone with only a small stint of dominant hitting at AA and not much of a defensive reputation, but he’s not yet 23 and showed a lot of offensive potential in his college career at Arizona State. Starter Clay Mortensen looks like pitching depth at best, but again, youth mitigates things; at 24, further improvement, while not guaranteed, is far from impossible. The rawest talent the A’s received was in 21-year-old outfielder Shane Peterson, who looks like the sort of player the A’s might have drafted with their second compensation pick had they lost Holliday in free agency.
With that, and Wallace’s upside, taken into consideration, it’s a solid haul for Oakland; while Wallace could very conceivably make the Cardinals look back in regret, it’s hard to fault them for giving up the two replaceable minor leaguers with the NL Central title looking very attainable. Just how great a cost such a victory would come at is a matter of one’s faith in Wallace turning into an impact player.
Red Sox get better for free: Julio Lugo should not have been designated for assignment, but he was; by this week, he had to be considered a sunk cost for the Red Sox, and managing to turn him into anything before he cleared waivers would be a nice move. Theo Epstein did a little better than “anything,” acquiring from the Cardinals 1B/OF Chris Duncan. While Duncan’s defense and health are huge liabilities, he is only 28 and brings a little pop and the ability to take a walk. Perhaps most importantly, he also gave Boston – dealing with an injured Jeff Bailey and underachieving Chris Carter and Paul McAnulty – the organizational depth to finally cut ties with the utterly futile use of a roster spot that is Mark Kotsay.
Kotsay might not have been replaced on the major league roster, however, had the Sox not also acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Pirates. LaRoche is a platoon player who should only start against right-handed pitchers, but he allows Kevin Youkilis to shift to third and spell the quickly-aged Mike Lowell. More importantly, he has eliminated Boston’s most glaring weakness (in specifically Kotsay and in general lack of someone to play over Lowell) at a minimal cost: the club is taking on just $3 million in payroll, and gave Pittsburgh nothing more than organizational filler in Argenis Diaz (a no-hit shortstop who was cluttering the 40-man roster) and Hunter Strickland (who, while young, neither strikes guys out nor keeps the ball in the park). While Boston could make themselves the divisional favorite by adding an impact player before next Friday, they have added the only thing they absolutely needed in LaRoche.
Indians save some money: Okay, that was harsh. Rafael Betancourt’s 2010 option for over $5 million wasn’t going to be picked up by a team that has quit pretending to care about spending money on players, and draft compensation for a Type B free agent would hinge upon them actually offering arbitration to Betancourt, which is hardly a given. Considering that, sending Betancourt to the Rockies for Connor Graham isn’t the worst thing Cleveland could have done; Graham has some chance of being a useful major leaguer in his future. That’s about all I can say, though; while he can certainly strike guys out, he’s had control problems in A-ball, and his main asset – home run prevention – looks like more luck than ground ball tendencies. The one thing that could turn things around would be a move to the bullpen, but we’ll have to see how the Indians handle their new prospect.
Padres raise eyebrows: While many comments online are highly critical of San Diego GM Kevin Towers, I liked the move that sent reliever Cla Meredith to Baltimore. Meredith, 26, is a useful middle reliever, but he’s headed to arbitration this winter and the Padres are trying to cut payroll. Their bounty, 31-year-old infielder Oscar Salazar, looks like a late bloomer; he made some noise with a big 2008 at AAA and then continued to be a surprise in the bigs. While he may be nothing more than a backup corner infielder, he has less service time than Meredith and thus is a cheaper option for a team on a budget. The most intriguing part, however, is that his arrival in San Diego could be seen as a precursor to the club finally trading 1B Adrian Gonzalez – reported to be unlikely – or 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Uninteresting player dealt to uninteresting team in uninteresting trade: That’s the best way to describe the snoozefest of a trade that sent 2B Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and I’ll understand if readers zone out for the rest of this post. Lopez seems, to me, like he’s been a Brewer before, but he has not; I assume that my mind just saw “middling infielder who isn’t great at anything but isn’t awful, either” and thought of Milwaukee. The Brewers sent Arizona a pair of similarly unremarkable prospects; Roque Mercedes looks like your run-of-the-mill minor-league reliever, while Cole Gillespie’s walk abilities and doubles power don’t make the 25-year-old look like a great bet in left field.
old habits die hard
July 5, 2009 at 3:16 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Chris Davis, Indians, Jesus Colome, John Meloan, Nationals, notspects, Nyjer Morgan, Pirates, Rangers, Ryan Langerhans, Winston Abreu, you're still breaking my heart Neal
Because roster news is still coming in as I write this, expect All-Star thoughts sometime during the week or in next weekend’s entry.
Completely Acceptable Move of the Week: Since more than 30% of my regular readership hails from Cleveland, I feel I should address this week’s swap of minor league pitchers Winston Abreu and John Meloan. Meloan was sent to Tampa Bay (with cash considerations) for the waived Abreu. While he’s not yet 25, Meloan’s potential seems limited to me; as a starter, he struggled with his control, but he has not shown the dominance one would want at AAA from a reliever. Abreu is something of a mirror image: at 32, his future is somewhat limited and swift decline could always lurk right around the corner. Yet in recent years, his work at AAA in several organizations has been impressive, with more than a strikeout an inning and decent control since 2005. The one concern seems to be the long ball, which plagued him in his longest stint in the big leagues. Still, for a team like the Indians, I think his upside is worth the solid-but-unspectacular potential of Meloan; while he won’t save the relief corps this year, Cleveland could have a nice weapon in 2010, whether to set up or trade.
Overrated and Underrated Players of the Week: A lot has been made of the Nyjer Morgan trade, including analysis that is, at best, irrelevant, and possibly dead wrong. Morgan’s defense is his only asset; whether it’s awesome or slightly above average is a matter of one’s source. FanGraphs provides UZR numbers that make him look exceptional, but THT’s numbers from Baseball Info Solutions give a picture of a below-average left fielder with one slightly positive year in center. Because defensive metrics are still far from universal, we must evaluate Morgan’s value as a hitter, and that’s where the Nationals’ error (aside from surrendering Joel Hanrahan for the low-upside Sean Burnett) becomes clear. The ever-popular blind comparison:
Player A: .283/.348/.371 in major league career; .300/.357/.366, 70 SB in 126 games at AAA
Player B: .235/.337/.382 in major league career; .293/.387/.486, 37 HR in 313 games at AAA
Both of these players are 29 with strong defensive reputations but more uncertain statistics. Player A is Morgan, for whom the Nationals downgraded their bullpen and gave up the potential of Lastings Milledge; Player B is the severely underrated Ryan Langerhans, who was traded from Washington for the limited talents of Mike Morse. At best, these are two players of comparable value, and there is a very strong case to be made that Langerhans’ superior numbers in the minors mean he should be projected as a far better hitter. Morgan’s flashy speed, however, created the perception that he was a far more desirable commodity, and as such one-dimensional players can decline quickly, he could fall from his current peak value rapidly for a Nationals club that ought to be building for the future. Langerhans, on the other hand, already has three doubles and as many walks with his new club, and I will again praise Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik for the cheap acquisition.
Mistake of the Week: On the other end of the Morgan trade, the Pirates upgraded their bullpen and added a young outfielder who at least has a tiny chance of being with Pittsburgh’s next contending team. They absolutely come out ahead in the deal, but GM Neal Huntington still continued to destroy my faith in him this week. OF/1B Eric Hinske hasn’t hit for much power this year, but he has the best OBP of his career. Making just $1.5 million in 2009, he is a nice commodity who, if the Pirates insisted on trading him, could have brought in a small piece of Pittsburgh’s future. Instead, continuing with his tradition of seeking non-prospects, Huntington settled for Eric Fryer (23 years old and struggling to a .250/.333/.344 line at High-A) and Casey Erickson (two days younger than Fryer, he’s posted respectable numbers on the mound but never been above Single A). In acquiring these two non-prospects (or “notspects”) from the Yankees, the Pirates also agreed to pay $400,000 of Hinske’s remaining contract. Moves like this force me to reconsider my belief that the Pirates are moving towards a .500 season any time in the foreseeable future.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? The Texas Rangers have plenty of hitters, particularly in the outfield. Despite solid 2009 campaigns, David Murphy and Andruw Jones are still splitting playing time, and when Josh Hamilton returns, Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz will be competing for time as well. But with Hank Blalock seemingly entrenched as DH, there’s just no spot for these guys. After all, Blalock can’t possibly move to first base, where–
Oh. Well then. That changes everything. Someone’s just reminded me that 1B Chris Davis is not, in fact, repeating his 2008 campaign, wherein he slugged .549 and looked like a potential superstar for the Rangers. Rather, he has seen his production fall off a cliff; with a .201/.256/.417 line, he has the worst on-base percentage of any first baseman with more than 70 at bats. After striking out 88 times in 295 at bats last year, he’s racked up an MLB-leading 113 Ks in just 254 at bats this year; with just 17 walks, this is unacceptable. His failure is not a matter of bad luck, either: when he actually puts the ball in play, Davis is hitting a perfectly normal .286. In any other year, one could defend the Rangers for simply having nothing to lose in trying to build Davis’ confidence by standing behind him; for most other teams, one could claim that his 15 home runs would be too hard to replace. But for the 2009 Rangers, the AL West is winnable, and the club’s bench offers better options than Davis. If the team doesn’t make Blalock its full-time first baseman soon, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves if they come up a few games short of the Angels for a playoff berth.
Why Don’t You Still Have A Job? They say beggars can’t be choosers, but the Nationals seem to think they’re in the position to ditch perfectly adequate relievers. They designated Jesus Colome for assignment, and considering his most superficial stats (8.40 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) and the fact that the Nationals clearly undervalue him, I don’t see anyone bothering to pay much in trade. Yet in a season that clearly is heading nowhere, Washington is giving service time to the mildly intriguing young arm of Craig Stammen instead of sticking with Colome, whose ugly results are belied by his underlying numbers. His hit rate is up due to a .407 average on balls in play, and his 18.5% line drive rate is the lowest it has been in five years. He was better in June (two walks all month) than in May, and only allowed his first home run on Friday. His walk rate is far superior to that of teammates Julian Tavarez and Ron Villone’s, and as they youngest of the trio is the least likely to completely implode.
I have no idea what the Nationals expected from Colome; did they think Jesus would be their bullpen’s savior? He should have been seen as a decent depth option for a lousy team, and behind some unlucky breaks, that’s exactly what he has been. While he is certainly not a pitcher that a contending team should want, he’s far too respectable (with a 3.58 FIP) to be kicked off of the Washington Nationals.
summer’s here and the time is right
June 28, 2009 at 7:23 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Andy Sonnanstine, Chris Perez, Coco Crisp, David Price, Indians, Mariners, Mark DeRosa, PTBNL, Rays, Reds, Royals, Ryan Langerhans, Willy Taveras
My off week has left me rejuvenated and able to do some of the most non-Soxy baseball writing I’ve done in months. Here’s to being well-rested!
Underrated Addition: Seattle acquired AAAA-type outfielder Ryan Langerhans from Washington for more-certainly-a-minor-league-bat utility type Mike Morse. Langerhans is the older of the pair, but his AAA numbers certainly suggest he could merit a chance with a big-league club. With Endy Chavez injured, the Mariners have an outfield opening the Nationals were unlikely to see; if Langerhans can post a .350 OBP with a little pop while platooning with Wladimir Balentien, the M’s may end up with a better lineup than they had with the speed-oriented Chavez. For the Nationals, Morse may get a chance at second thanks to lousy years from Anderson Hernandez and Ronnie Belliard, but he’s no better than a fallback option for an awful club; Seattle clearly comes out ahead in this swap. A final interesting note on the trade: a recent fan chat floated the idea, and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik clearly liked it.
Schadenfreude of the Week, Non-Governor Division: I’m no longer worried that the Royals’ mistake-riddled offseason could be rewarded with a playoff berth on the merits of a few pitchers, but I’m still taking a bit of delight at how strongly one of those moves has come back to bite Kansas City. Former perpetually-whining Red Sox OF Coco Crisp will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this week, making his expensive contract (including an $8 million option for 2010) all the more ridiculous an acquisition for the Royals. The pitcher the Royals traded for Crisp this winter, Ramon Ramirez, is quietly having a very weak season by his standards, but with injuries and poor years starting to take their toll on KC’s staff, it’s hard not to think they’d take Ramirez back in a heartbeat. For context, the Royals’ pitching staff has become so thin that Bruce Chen has finally made it back to the majors. He’s earned that shot with solid work at AAA, but a simple fact remains: he’s Bruce Chen.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? I like the Reds. No longer under the reign of a grossly incompetent GM, they’ve started making moves that look shrewd to me, and contrasted against an NL Central otherwise devoid of wisdom, they look even better.
But Willy Taveras was a mistake when the Reds signed him, and now the worst-case scenario is playing out with a $4 million salary looming in 2010. Taveras has never been a good hitter, but the bottom has truly fallen out this season: his .276 on-base percentage is inexcusable, and his .288 slugging percentage is similarly awful. He’s managed just one home run and 14 walks this year, striking out 41 times. The numbers are no worse than Cincinnati SS Alex Gonzalez, but Gonzalez has a poor BABIP in his defense, contributes more in the field, isn’t leading off, and is an indictment of the prior front office regime. The Reds also don’t have an indisputably better option than Gonzalez (words to live by: no matter how bad things get, Paul Janish is never the answer) in the infield.
In deferring to Taveras’ high salary and speedy reputation, however, Cincy is benching not one, but three superior hitters. Chris Dickerson has a strong defensive reputation and the numbers to back it up; Laynce Nix has a lousy on-base percentage but has slugged quite a bit, and still makes fewer outs than Taveras; Jonny Gomes has made the most of minimal playing time and shown decent patience as well as a bit of pop. At the very least, Dickerson and Nix should both start versus righties, something the Reds seem to be doing recently. But against southpaws, Taveras may be worse than either lefty hitter, and under no circumstances should he lead off. Knowing how Reds manager Dusty Baker loves speedy ballplayers, I fear the front office needs to take the Taveras option off his hands entirely if he’s ever going to avoid 500 at-bats.
Mistake of the Week: Consider two young pitchers:
Player A, at 26, has likely reached his potential: a back-of-the-rotation arm with mediocre stuff, he relies on stellar control (averaging less than two walks per nine innings since 2007). He moved steadily through the minors and experienced success at each level before being promoted, and his home run problems this year seem flukish, considering he’s posting the best ground ball rate of his short career.
Player B, 23, has all kinds of “stuff.” Scouts love his potential, the media salivates every time he takes the mound, and even a statistically minded fan can understand his appeal. Yet the results have never been there – he racked up plenty of strikeouts as he sped through the minors, but frequently accompanied them with walks or home runs. In the majors, he has worse HR problems than Player A and a lower ground ball rate, and he’s walking 6 batters per 9 innings (which results in some short starts that tax a mediocre bullpen). While I’m loath to use clichés like “learn to pitch,” he is by all appearances very raw, and could benefit immensely from more time in the minors to convert his talent into results.
Both players are starters for Tampa Bay, and when Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list, one of them had to go. The Rays optioned down Player A, Andy Sonnanstine, keeping Player B, David Price; it’s a decision that I find hard to defend, particularly considering that Sonnanstine has pitched better lately while Price has had just one start (May 30 against Minnesota) that I would call “good.” The Rays seem like one of the smarter organizations in baseball, so perhaps they’re hoping that Price will increase his trade value by pitching in the majors. But if they’re simply betting on the guy who throws hard to be better than the guy who throws strikes for the rest of 2009, I think they’re making a dreadful mistake (and as a Sox fan, I thank them for it).
Question of the Week: Who’s the Player To Be Named Later? Allow me to preface this evaluation of yesterday’s trade with the following: Mark DeRosa is overrated. He’s a good player, sure, and he’s turned it on after a sluggish, low BABIP-plagued start. But he’s 34, and while he can play many positions, the defensive jack of all trades is a master of… well, not many. There’s value in his versatility, sure, but it looks pretty clear that 2008 was the peak of his career.
DeRosa, however, has been hyped for most of the season, particularly since it became clear that the Cleveland Indians were going nowhere in 2009, and was a rumored target for numerous teams due to his versatility. Trading him to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later saves the extremely “frugal” Indians over two million dollars in a non-contending season, so it’s far from a disaster.
But Perez, even in the weaker National League, has had serious walk problems and, like ex-Cardinal Anthony Reyes before him, struggled with the long ball. He’s not ready to help the Tribe yet, and he’s far from a sure thing to turn into a valuable reliever down the road. Perez looks far more like a secondary player in a deal for someone as coveted as DeRosa, so if the player to be named turns out to be a low minor leaguer or mediocre upper-level guy, the Indians will be in grave danger of slipping even farther down my rooting hierarchy.
if i could, i would let it go
May 10, 2009 at 6:17 pm | In Baseball, Historical Ineptitude | 4 CommentsTags: Denny Stark, Indians, Javier Lopez, Manny Ramirez, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox, Ruben Amaro Jr., Vinnie Chulk
It’s been a pretty slow week transaction-wise; the recently-maligned P.J. Walters got his deserved demotion, the Yankees called up their fourth-string catcher, and the Nationals wisely gave up hoping that Mike Hinckley could be a useful pitcher. Meanwhile, the pantheon of baseball idiocy has found a new god – but more on that later. First, something that went right!
Shrewd Move of the Week: Imagine, if you will, a pitcher who comes out of the bullpen and walks almost a batter per inning. This pitcher only manages to strike out a batter every three innings. Did I mention he’s 30 and has a history of extreme mediocrity? But what if, by inexplicable luck of stranded runners and a low hit rate thanks to a .237 average allowed on balls in play, he has a 3.75 ERA? Should you let him keep pitching instead of going to pitchers who might put up better component statistics? No, you should not. And this is the wisdom that Indians GM Mark Shapiro found as applying to Vinnie Chulk. Chulk has had several big games for the Tribe this year, including 2 1/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox. But underneath his brief success was a set of statistics that screams “I’ve been incredibly lucky!” Chulk’s upside was… well, basically what they got from him, and Shapiro deserves to be commended for being willing to designate Chulk for assignment earlier this week. The only way I could be happier is if he manages to trade Chulk for something of value from a less thorough front office.
Oh, and…: Calling this week “uneventful” doesn’t really work for me as a Sox fan. Between writing and press time (a five-minute window in which found my Tic Tacs), it was learned that Red Sox “relief” “pitcher” Javier Lopez has finally been designated for assignment. Javy’s been every bit as awful as his 7.01 xFIP, posting an almost 2:1 walk:strikeout ratio. He’ll not be missed.
Question of the Week: What does Manny Ramirez’s suspension mean for the Red Sox? Very little. While I was quite surprised at Manny’s positive test for a banned substance, the theory that this undermines the Red Sox’ 2004 and 2007 championships is rather absurd. Admittedly, Sox fans may have lost some of the moral high ground from which they can boo the steroid-using Alex Rodriguez, but there’s a difference between what is immoral and what is unfair. If Manny was juicing in 2004 or 2007 – a fact that is certainly possible, though impossible to know for now – it means he’s the same slime as A-Rod. But the consensus is that steroids have run rampant through Major League Baseball for the past two decades; while the playing field may be heavily enhanced and artificially heightened, there’s no reason to think it hasn’t been level. Since countless other players and teams used the same “advantage” as a hypothetical ‘roided-up Manny and the Sox, I can’t see any loss of legitimacy to the ‘04 and ‘07 rings, and Manny’s possible crimes taint my memories of those years far less than his ugly exit from Boston.
Why Do You Still Once Again Have A Job? I like the Mariners. With their surprising strength early in the season, they provide a viable backup rooting plan in the AL West should the A’s continue to be hopeless. But other than a misguided wish to recapture the BABIP-luck-induced magic of a rookie 2002 in Colorado, there’s no justification for Denny Stark’s presence in the bullpen. Since being called up last week, Stark has pitched in four games. Only one of those appearances was a clean inning; each of the others involved at least as many walks as strikeouts. His worst outing came Tuesday, when he surrendered six runs on five hits (one a home run) and a walk to lose to Texas in the 10th inning. Stark’s major league career makes clear his poor control, inability to strike batters out, and problems with the long ball; his minor league numbers only show that he’s able to keep the ball in AAA stadiums, but still not very good at getting guys out. It would be nice if Stark could overcome multiple arm surgeries to be useful in his first major league season since 2004, but simply put, he has never been good enough to merit the chance Seattle is giving him right now. Perhaps continuing to contend is unrealistic for the Mariners, even in a weak division, but right now, they’re giving away games if they keep Stark.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: Why would anyone this willfully ignorant be hired for one of the most powerful jobs in baseball? I had written a serious (and furious) rebuttal to this – wherein Raul Ibanez’ unforeseeable defensive strength through one month of the season is used to undermine the validity of statistics – but you know what, Ruben Amaro, Jr.? You’ve set the Phillies back to the bottom quintile of my rooting hierarchy, but beyond that, you’re not worth the outrage. Instead, I’m just gonna take the most offensive part:
“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all,” Amaro said. “I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick. I think defense is subjective. You know, if you watch a guy, whether he has range or not. You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers. It doesn’t happen. “We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.”
and get FJM-y with it, piece by horrendous piece.
I do not buy numbers defensively.
I do not buy books at list price. Thanks for sharing your money-saving tips in these troubling economic times.
I look at fielding percentage.
Great way to show you “do not buy numbers defensively. At all.” Fielding percentage is not actually a number, but a special, magical tool to see how good a player is at defense. It’s like a Pensieve, except it only shows clips from SportsCenter.
What’s that? It’s actually just a measure of how good a guy is when he touches the ball, with no regard for how often he actually gets to it, which would be a far more accurate measure of defensive ability? Oh. Well, I’m sure that that common mistake won’t end my dreams of working for the Phillies.
I think defense is subjective.
The problem with sports these days is that there’s too much high-stakes testing going on. Everyone is so concerned with numbers that managers teach to the test instead of having their players learn to play the game. In the real world, how good teams are at baseball isn’t determined by numbers and percentages, but whether they Play The Game The Right Way. Like offense and pitching, defense is subjective; how it results in “runs” and “scoring” is just an illusion perpetuated by The Man to keep kids like Raul Ibanez from following their dreams and just having fun with the game.
And for that matter, why do people insist on trying to put labels on Brad Lidge? It’s subjective. Telling him that he’s been “losing” by giving up “runs” and letting the other team “score” is only going to destroy his love for the game! Damn it, he just loves watching the ball fly out of the park after he throws it, and that’s neither bad nor good – it’s what’s right for him.
You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers.
Exactly! And routes are what matter. If Ibanez takes routes that let him cut the ball off on the first hop, instead of catching it on the fly at the same rate that others in his position can, who are we to judge? The grace… the aesthetic awe that is a route… that’s so much more important than the result of the play. Smart people know that beauty trumps results every time; if only more people had voted for Diane Lane instead of that policy nerd Obama, I’m sure our economy would be booming by now.
We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.
Which is why fielding percentage is so important. It takes scouts and keenly-trained observers to count how many errors a guy makes, but something like Zone Rating? Why, any schmuck could measure that without having to look at an actual game! And lord knows we stat geeks just hate watching baseball.
today’s music ain’t got the same soul
May 3, 2009 at 9:50 pm | In Baseball, Today's Music Sucks | 5 CommentsTags: Cardinals, Dan Giese, Indians, Matt LaPorta, Mike MacDougal, Nationals, P.J. Walters, Royals, Yankees, Zack Greinke
Ever the dynamic, unpredictable person, I’ve incorporated a few of David’s suggested categories, added one of my own, and thrown together another couple pages of baseball insights. We’re surprisingly low on Red Sox-related things, but with upcoming series against my hometown Indians and the loathed Yankees and Rays, I’m sure to make up for that next week.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: What the hell is this?
Just because you occasionally hit notes that make you sound like Bono doesn’t mean you should subject the world to your work*. Whoever thought it would be a good idea to play this before games at Progressive Field needs to be fired. Was ownership too cheap to spring for the rights to “Cleveland Rocks?” What exactly is the story here? (And lest anyone say I’m just negative about all team-specific music that isn’t entrenched in baseball history, new songs CAN be done effectively when assigned to people who have musical experience beyond Guitar Hero. Case in point:)
I mean, come on. “It’s Tribe Time Now?”
Underrated Addition: It was just last week that I pilloried the Nationals for demoting a reliever with lousy 2009 results, but they seem to have realized where their standards need to be. Case in point: Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal, better known as Mike. MacDougal was released by the White Sox after starting 2009 with a line that makes Javier Lopez look effective, but with no hope of contending and a bullpen already dealing with injury issues, Washington was wise to take a chance on him. To say he has control issues is like saying Oedipus had some family problems, but in the last four MLB seasons, MacDougal has allowed just 4 home runs in 92 innings. For a team like Washington, he should quickly become a bullpen fixture; the worst-case scenario I see is cheap innings from the pen, with the upside that a pitching-starved team could make trade inquiries once MacDougal re-establishes himself.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? As seems to be a new trend, this section of my posts is again a rare look at an unliked NL club. This week’s unvaluable player is Cardinals reliever/spot starter P.J. Walters, who has as many innings on the young season as closer Ryan Franklin, and more than several potentially decent setup men. That total is, of course, skewed by the one start he made, a surprisingly solid four-inning effort in Chicago. In the six-plus innings since, however, he has descended to abominable levels of futility on the mound, with four walks and three home runs to just three strikeouts (and, for those who give weight to defense-dependent stats, a whopping nine hits). Walters has remained in St. Louis’s bullpen while better arms toil at AAA, including those of Brad Thompson and Jess Todd. While he’s only 24, Walters’ minor league numbers give little reason to think he’s about to turn a corner – while he posted solid enough totals in 2007 (mostly in A ball), his 2008 was plagued by 22 home runs in 158 innings – not acceptable in the majors, and certainly not to AA and AAA competition. On top of that, his control eroded at AAA, and he surrendered 62 walks in 122 innings. Perhaps his success in the low minors (coming at a relatively old age) is reason to think he can be a useful piece in time, but there’s no excuse for the Cardinals keeping him in the bigs; even if they lack confidence in their internal options, they’d be better off trying to resurrect the career of Mike Timlin than trusting Walters with meaningful innings.
Perfect Hindsight: On April 4, the Yankees designated pitcher Dan Giese for assignment. It was a questionable move, considering their lack of a long man and the unproven nature of some of the arms they were carrying, but not one that figured to be a moment of regret. Not even a month later, I have to believe that New York GM Brian Cashman thinks back wistfully to spring training. While Giese has had some problems in his time with the A’s, his track record is solid enough (including a frustratingly respectable 2008), and he has still outpitched those who took his job as the final man in the Yankees’ pen. Now, as they prepare for the Red Sox’ first visit to their new stadium, the Yankees are forced to call up pitchers like Anthony Claggett (who has yet to establish himself at the upper levels of the minors, and was responsible for much of the Indians’ 14-run inning two weeks ago) to bridge the gap to underwhelming setup man Jonathan Albaladejo. Their offense, even sans A-Rod, is potent enough to be considered a playoff contender, but with a more reliable innings-eater available, they would be downright terrifying.
Shrewd Move of the Week (Or “Overdue and Obvious Call-Up of the Week”): The Indians finally picked the right outfielder to aggressively promote, sending down the disappointing Trevor Crowe for Matt LaPorta, whose torrid hitting at AAA seemed too valuable to be overlooked by a club that consistently fielded only two good outfielders. Though LaPorta struggled at AA last year after the trade that sent him to Cleveland for CC Sabathia, he should quickly learn to outhit Crowe, Ben Francisco, and veteran David Dellucci. Considering the Tribe’s pitching troubles (and continued insistence on leaving Jeremy Sowers at AAA), an earlier call-up wouldn’t have helped them avoid falling into a deep hole in the standings, but finally shuffling the pieces (including the promotion of 2B Luis Valbuena) should at least give them the best major league lineup they can muster going forward in 2009. With so many teams ahead of them, and unable to string together consecutive wins, it’ll be incredibly tough for the Indians to get into the playoff hunt. But now, they’re finally using the right players to make that effort.
Player of the Week: I continue to doubt that the Royals can hang around at the top of the AL Central for the whole season, but that’s largely due to an underachieving offense – including a black hole at shortstop and the due-for-regression Alberto Callaspo and Willie Bloomquist. As far as the pitching goes, however, I’m increasingly impressed, and could see the Royals’ staff being one of the better in baseball. The highlight, as anyone following baseball this year knows, is Zack Greinke. Greinke finally wound up with a nonzero ERA this week, but his numbers are still staggering enough to merit every bit of praise he’s received – and this is no trifling praise, considering how much I try to avoid talking about players everyone else talks about. Having allowed a .286 average on balls in play, he isn’t having his stats inflated by the defense behind him. He has more strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (11.00) than any American League starter, and is 11th in walks per 9 (2.00). The worst one can say is that he’s been lucky not to give up a single home run, but even accounting for that, he posts an xFIP under 3.00. His team has won every game he’s started, two of which he also finished. Greinke has finally lived up to his stuff and become a true ace; considering that the well-documented issues he’s had have had nothing to do with his physical health, there may not be a more valuable pitching commodity in baseball.
* Yes, this admonishment does apply to Bono himself on occasion, though I’d like to hear U2 help Africa with “Hey Hey Hey, H.I.V./It’s AIDS Time Now.”
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