what's on my mind grapes?

Because I have even more free time than opinions about baseball, I’ve assembled my own rosters for the Midsummer Classic. They’re built around the real teams’ 20 position players/13 pitchers ratios, and because pitcher usage is so arbitrary in the All-Star game, I’m also taking a cue from the actual clubs and allocating five spots on the pitching staffs for relief pitchers. As with the real roster constraints, all 30 MLB clubs are represented, but I daresay I’ve done a better job keeping out the riff-raff and bringing in more meritorious players.

Exclusions from my AL staff: I love Tim Wakefield (BOS) and I’m happy to see him recognized for what he has meant to the Red Sox, but as John succinctly puts it, he is not an All-Star; Jon Papelbon (BOS) may be a star, but he hasn’t pitched well at all this year, struggling with the worst walk and home run problems since he became a closer; and Mark Buehrle (CWS), who was on as the token White Sox and for his low ERA, ignoring mediocre component stats.

Players listed by ascending job security; handedness in parantheses; * indicates players not on the real roster.

(L) Cliff Lee, CLE starter*: The Tribe southpaw beat out Jered Weaver, James Shields, and a handful of token lefties for the final starter spot on my club. His recent struggles (including being chased after 3 innings and allowing 7 runs against Chicago) make his position the most tenuous on this pitching staff, but I wanted more southpaws on the roster to neutralize some of the NL’s lefty bats, and Lee has had a good, albeit not great, season.

(L) Brian Fuentes, LAA reliever: Fuentes wouldn’t have made my team if Toronto’s Scott Downs were healthy, but the Blue Jays closer is on the DL with a sprained toe (no, seriously, he is). But with so many lefties on my National League squad, I felt it of critical importance to carry several southpaws.

(R) Andrew Bailey, OAK reliever: While Oakland’s weak collection of talent makes Bailey a shoo-in as the team’s required representative, Bailey had a decent case for inclusion on his own merits. With more than a strikeout per inning and the ability to pitch multiple innings in relief (unlike most “closers,” Bailey hasn’t always been held for the 9th; four of his nine saves have been more than three outs), he should be a nice weapon with which the AL can shut down a few right-handed bats.

(L) J.P. Howell, TB reliever*: A significant snub (certainly the most egregious exclusion from the AL’s bullpen), Howell is my second lefty reliever and another arm capable of working two innings if needed. I would see him more as a situational reliever in the perfect world, where the club also has two left-handed starters for any long relief needs, but whatever his use, Howell has outpitched Fuentes in metrics both simple and complex, besting him in ERA, strikeouts, home runs, WHIP, FIP, and ground ball rate.

(R) Edwin Jackson, DET starter: Oops. In defense of my dismissal of Jackson as “little more than a #5 starter,” he’s having a breakout season at 25. With more strikeouts and fewer walks than ever before, Jackson looks like a legitimate ace (though he’s also getting a little luck in the form of a .255 BABIP and a low rate of home runs per outfield fly). Because of his history and the fact that his 38.6% ground ball rate is actually worse than most of his career, I don’t expect him to continue pitching at this level all season long. But that doesn’t diminish how great he has been so far; at the very least, I’d project him as a solid front-end starter for the Tigers.

(R) Joe Nathan, MIN reliever: What can one say about Joe Nathan? He’s again putting up a stellar season, both in terms of saves and as measured by more stable, context-independent metrics. Meanwhile, A.J. Pierzynski is no longer with the Giants.

(R) Mariano Rivera, NYY reliever: Given the short porch at Yankee Stadium, I’m willing to dismiss a good deal of his home run issues this year. Once one considers his strikeout-to-walk-ratio of 42:3 (that’s not a typo), he again looks like one of the elite pitchers in baseball.

(R) Josh Beckett, BOS starter: Allowing opponents an OBP of .382 in April, Beckett got off to a shaky start, quickly reviving ugly memories of the second half of 2008 for Red Sox Nation. He’s since rounded into shape, however, and allowed just 4 walks and one home run during five June starts. Beckett’s walk rate is up from recent years, but still remains low enough that he’s one of the elite starters in the game.

(R) Felix Hernandez, SEA starter: Still only 23, King Felix is finally living up to the hype that surrounded his ascension to the big leagues. His strikeout rate is a career best, and he’s erased the walk problems that popped up on occasion in 2008. Though I’m sure his numbers owe some thanks to the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, Hernandez is nevertheless one of the best pitchers in the game, and his youth makes him even more valuable than most of his All-Star teammates.

(L) Jon Lester, BOS starter*: The 13 home runs he has allowed this year actually made me reconsider Lester’s inclusion, but it seems safe to say that he’s turned around an ugly start. In his last 46 2/3 innings, he has struck out 61 batters to just nine walks and two home runs. His FIP, xFIP, strikeout, ground ball, and line drive rates are the best in his career. Just 29 strikeouts short of his total from 2008, Lester is having the best season of his career, and has been absolutely dominant since the end of May. A rough start inflated his ERA and will suppress his win total, but since finding his groove, he has been incredible.

(R) Justin Verlander, DET starter: Lester beat cancer, but Verlander’s strikeout rate beats Lester’s. Factor in good control and the ability to keep the ball in the park, and you’ve got a dominant return from a poor 2008 campaign.

(R) Roy Halladay, TOR starter: Halladay is making yet another Cy Young campaign, relying on a league-leading walk rate for one of the best seasons of his illustrious career. At 32, he should have several good years left; with trade rumors starting to heat up, the only question is whether this will be his final All-Star game representing the Blue Jays.

(R) Zack Greinke, KC starter: Greinke’s fallen a lot recently; after a scorchingly hot start that saw a 1.10 ERA at the end of May, he finally gave up some home runs in June and saw his ERA skyrocket to a merely mortal 2.00. He’s no longer striking out the world, and his luck on fly balls suggests that he’s still due for some regression. In short, the one-time ace of the Royals is clearly in freefall. Still, I suppose there’s room on this All-Star team for the AL’s leading starter in WHIP, ERA, K/BB, and HR/9.