it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
all the small things
July 30, 2009 at 4:42 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Brian Anderson, Dodgers, Freddy Sanchez, George Sherrill, Giants, Josh Bell, Mariners, Mark Kotsay, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Robert Manuel, Steve Johnson, Tim Alderson, White Sox, Wladimir Balentien
While the Red Sox continue trampling my soul return to being awesome, a roundup of some of this week’s smaller trades (and by “small” I mean “occurred since my last blog and/or don’t involve many players;” several of these guys are important parts on contending teams or real prospects).
Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson.
The Dodgers filled a significant area of need, and did so with the best option on the market. Sherrill has two more years of arbitration, and should be an excellent left-handed setup man like Will Ohman and Hong-Chih Kuo were supposed to be. It is, however, worth noting that Sherrill battled severe control issues in 2008 and 2006, so he’s hardly a sure thing; it’s also significant that he’s 32 years old, and could be washed up by the time he hits free agency. This is clearly a win-now move, though, and with the Phillies upgrading their rotation, it’s understandable why Los Angeles was willing to risk those things for the potential to bolster their bullpen.
Bell is a significant price to pay for a reliever with such question marks, though; the 22-year-old looks like a nice power hitter in the making, and has adjusted well to AA. If he can field enough to stick at third, the O’s got a pretty nice hitter here for a pitcher unlikely to be on a contending Baltimore club. Johnson’s a run-of-the-mill low-minors pitching prospect; he’s 21 and has been in the system since 2005, only reaching AA this year. He seems to have some strikeout potential, but gives up too many HRs to look like anything but organizational fodder.
Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson.
Are you @%$^ing kidding me? Giants GM Brian Sabean has done some weird, stupid things in his time, but this one still came as a shock. Sanchez is a nice add and a lock to contribute more than the Giants’ AAA players who have attempted to man second base (not as much an upgrade from Juan Uribe, but that’s beside the point). He’ll add a little speed, a little pop, a little defense, and give the wildcard-leading Giants a slightly better shot at October.
That’s not enough. I’m okay dealing prospects for impact players who could increase one’s chances of a World Series berth, but the Giants cannot be considered one of the NL’s stronger playoff clubs, and Sanchez only serves to fill a hole. That in mind, the price was absolutely staggering. Alderson was San Francisco’s #2 pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner. While low strikeout totals seem to undermine a lot of the hype around him, he’s still an exorbitant price to pay for an okay second baseman; even if we accept that Alderson isn’t the front-of-the-rotation starter that some believe he is, his value on the market ought to have been a fair deal greater than a minor pickup like Sanchez.
Cincinnati Reds traded RP Robert Manuel to Seattle Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien.
This is one that makes decent sense for both teams. Balentien is a year younger, but has thus far not translated some translated minor-league power into major-league hitting success. He’s a strikeout liability, but perhaps the National League and a friendlier home park will help him rediscover his stroke. The Reds have suffered injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson, so it makes sense to add another young guy who still could turn into a long-term asset.
Manuel seems closer to being a useful major leaguer, though, so I give the edge in this trade to Seattle. The 26-year-old didn’t get much time in a surprisingly strong Reds bullpen, but his minor league numbers make him an interesting relief prospect. To be successful in the AL, he’ll probably need to find the strikeout ability he showed as one of the Southern League’s best pitchers last year, but his control makes him a nice asset even if he doesn’t blow batters away.
Boston Red Sox traded “1B”/”OF” Mark Kotsay to Chicago White Sox for CF Brian Anderson.
27-year-old Anderson can’t hit and is overrated in the field. 33-year-old Kotsay can’t hit, can’t field, and was designated for assignment, giving the Red Sox a limited window to trade him; he will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Red Sox traded sure garbage for probable garbage that has a slim chance of turning into something of small value.
you ain’t going nowhere
July 29, 2009 at 2:54 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin, Ian Snell, Jack Wilson, Jeff Clement, Mariners, Nathan Adcock, Pirates, Ronny Cedeno
I should have a review of the Cliff Lee deal up tonight, but first, a boring trade not likely to impact playoff races!
Pittsburgh Pirates traded SS Jack Wilson and SP Ian Snell to Seattle Mariners for C/1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, and minor league SPs Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock.
First thought: the Pirates are finally doing something not thoroughly futile. Second thought: …and that’s about all I can say for them.
Wilson will be a free agent at the end of the year (or rather, with an expensive club option, his team should make him a free agent), and Snell’s stock has fallen quite a bit since his eye-opening 2007 season. There’s nothing about Wilson that a team completely out of the hunt is likely to miss, and Snell is the sort of player for whom the proverbial “change of scenery” trade seems to make sense. With the Pirates paying most of their salaries for 2009, the deal has to be judged solely on the players going back to Pittsburgh.
Clement is easily the centerpiece of the package from Seattle; the 25-year-old can take walks and has solid power that could make him a nice doubles hitter in the majors, even if he can’t convert some of those two-baggers to home runs. The question, however, is where he’ll play – Clement was a catching prospect, but has increasingly been used as a designated hitter. If the Pirates are forced to use him at first base, it’s tough to see him being anything special, but he could at least be a cheap, solid hitter for a team that won’t be shooting for anything past “respectable” for several years.
But that’s about it for now – Cedeno is only 26, but he should manage to be a downgrade from Jack Wilson’s productivity. The prospects are where the Mariners could eventually regret the deal, but that looks unlikely to me; they moved quantity rather than quality here. None of the pitchers are highly ranked on any of the lists I found (including Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and a handful of others), and none of them have stats that make me think they’re being undervalued. 22-year-old Lorin has shown some strikeout ability, but with walk problems. Pribanic is soon to be 23, and his hopes look to hinge on continuing to induce ground balls. Adcock is the most advanced of the trio, but that’s not saying much; in the High-A California League, he’s seen his walks spike and his strikeouts dip; he’s only 21, but has been in the M’s system since 2006, and his slow advancement has to be considered a negative indicator.
I really like Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, and I’m willing to trust his evaluation of his own prospects. He gave up quite a few young trading chips, but the best bet to help the Pirates is likely to do so in pretty mediocre fashion. The idea that Seattle can make a run at the wild card (currently behind three teams and 6.5 out) seems far-fetched, but stranger things have happened, and this isn’t just a move for 2009. Snell has been dominant at AAA Indianapolis, so his potential’s not gone yet; he’s due just over $4 million next year, and the Mariners then have a pair of club options. If he does well in the spacious Safeco Field, he represents a solid arm under team control for several years; if not… well, he’s still farther along than any of the prospects will likely ever be. And if his presence gives the Mariners the depth to deal fly ball-prone SP Jarrod Washburn before he turns back into a pumpkin, better still.
summer’s here and the time is right
June 28, 2009 at 7:23 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Andy Sonnanstine, Chris Perez, Coco Crisp, David Price, Indians, Mariners, Mark DeRosa, PTBNL, Rays, Reds, Royals, Ryan Langerhans, Willy Taveras
My off week has left me rejuvenated and able to do some of the most non-Soxy baseball writing I’ve done in months. Here’s to being well-rested!
Underrated Addition: Seattle acquired AAAA-type outfielder Ryan Langerhans from Washington for more-certainly-a-minor-league-bat utility type Mike Morse. Langerhans is the older of the pair, but his AAA numbers certainly suggest he could merit a chance with a big-league club. With Endy Chavez injured, the Mariners have an outfield opening the Nationals were unlikely to see; if Langerhans can post a .350 OBP with a little pop while platooning with Wladimir Balentien, the M’s may end up with a better lineup than they had with the speed-oriented Chavez. For the Nationals, Morse may get a chance at second thanks to lousy years from Anderson Hernandez and Ronnie Belliard, but he’s no better than a fallback option for an awful club; Seattle clearly comes out ahead in this swap. A final interesting note on the trade: a recent fan chat floated the idea, and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik clearly liked it.
Schadenfreude of the Week, Non-Governor Division: I’m no longer worried that the Royals’ mistake-riddled offseason could be rewarded with a playoff berth on the merits of a few pitchers, but I’m still taking a bit of delight at how strongly one of those moves has come back to bite Kansas City. Former perpetually-whining Red Sox OF Coco Crisp will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this week, making his expensive contract (including an $8 million option for 2010) all the more ridiculous an acquisition for the Royals. The pitcher the Royals traded for Crisp this winter, Ramon Ramirez, is quietly having a very weak season by his standards, but with injuries and poor years starting to take their toll on KC’s staff, it’s hard not to think they’d take Ramirez back in a heartbeat. For context, the Royals’ pitching staff has become so thin that Bruce Chen has finally made it back to the majors. He’s earned that shot with solid work at AAA, but a simple fact remains: he’s Bruce Chen.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? I like the Reds. No longer under the reign of a grossly incompetent GM, they’ve started making moves that look shrewd to me, and contrasted against an NL Central otherwise devoid of wisdom, they look even better.
But Willy Taveras was a mistake when the Reds signed him, and now the worst-case scenario is playing out with a $4 million salary looming in 2010. Taveras has never been a good hitter, but the bottom has truly fallen out this season: his .276 on-base percentage is inexcusable, and his .288 slugging percentage is similarly awful. He’s managed just one home run and 14 walks this year, striking out 41 times. The numbers are no worse than Cincinnati SS Alex Gonzalez, but Gonzalez has a poor BABIP in his defense, contributes more in the field, isn’t leading off, and is an indictment of the prior front office regime. The Reds also don’t have an indisputably better option than Gonzalez (words to live by: no matter how bad things get, Paul Janish is never the answer) in the infield.
In deferring to Taveras’ high salary and speedy reputation, however, Cincy is benching not one, but three superior hitters. Chris Dickerson has a strong defensive reputation and the numbers to back it up; Laynce Nix has a lousy on-base percentage but has slugged quite a bit, and still makes fewer outs than Taveras; Jonny Gomes has made the most of minimal playing time and shown decent patience as well as a bit of pop. At the very least, Dickerson and Nix should both start versus righties, something the Reds seem to be doing recently. But against southpaws, Taveras may be worse than either lefty hitter, and under no circumstances should he lead off. Knowing how Reds manager Dusty Baker loves speedy ballplayers, I fear the front office needs to take the Taveras option off his hands entirely if he’s ever going to avoid 500 at-bats.
Mistake of the Week: Consider two young pitchers:
Player A, at 26, has likely reached his potential: a back-of-the-rotation arm with mediocre stuff, he relies on stellar control (averaging less than two walks per nine innings since 2007). He moved steadily through the minors and experienced success at each level before being promoted, and his home run problems this year seem flukish, considering he’s posting the best ground ball rate of his short career.
Player B, 23, has all kinds of “stuff.” Scouts love his potential, the media salivates every time he takes the mound, and even a statistically minded fan can understand his appeal. Yet the results have never been there – he racked up plenty of strikeouts as he sped through the minors, but frequently accompanied them with walks or home runs. In the majors, he has worse HR problems than Player A and a lower ground ball rate, and he’s walking 6 batters per 9 innings (which results in some short starts that tax a mediocre bullpen). While I’m loath to use clichés like “learn to pitch,” he is by all appearances very raw, and could benefit immensely from more time in the minors to convert his talent into results.
Both players are starters for Tampa Bay, and when Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list, one of them had to go. The Rays optioned down Player A, Andy Sonnanstine, keeping Player B, David Price; it’s a decision that I find hard to defend, particularly considering that Sonnanstine has pitched better lately while Price has had just one start (May 30 against Minnesota) that I would call “good.” The Rays seem like one of the smarter organizations in baseball, so perhaps they’re hoping that Price will increase his trade value by pitching in the majors. But if they’re simply betting on the guy who throws hard to be better than the guy who throws strikes for the rest of 2009, I think they’re making a dreadful mistake (and as a Sox fan, I thank them for it).
Question of the Week: Who’s the Player To Be Named Later? Allow me to preface this evaluation of yesterday’s trade with the following: Mark DeRosa is overrated. He’s a good player, sure, and he’s turned it on after a sluggish, low BABIP-plagued start. But he’s 34, and while he can play many positions, the defensive jack of all trades is a master of… well, not many. There’s value in his versatility, sure, but it looks pretty clear that 2008 was the peak of his career.
DeRosa, however, has been hyped for most of the season, particularly since it became clear that the Cleveland Indians were going nowhere in 2009, and was a rumored target for numerous teams due to his versatility. Trading him to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later saves the extremely “frugal” Indians over two million dollars in a non-contending season, so it’s far from a disaster.
But Perez, even in the weaker National League, has had serious walk problems and, like ex-Cardinal Anthony Reyes before him, struggled with the long ball. He’s not ready to help the Tribe yet, and he’s far from a sure thing to turn into a valuable reliever down the road. Perez looks far more like a secondary player in a deal for someone as coveted as DeRosa, so if the player to be named turns out to be a low minor leaguer or mediocre upper-level guy, the Indians will be in grave danger of slipping even farther down my rooting hierarchy.
if i could, i would let it go
May 10, 2009 at 6:17 pm | In Baseball, Historical Ineptitude | 4 CommentsTags: Denny Stark, Indians, Javier Lopez, Manny Ramirez, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox, Ruben Amaro Jr., Vinnie Chulk
It’s been a pretty slow week transaction-wise; the recently-maligned P.J. Walters got his deserved demotion, the Yankees called up their fourth-string catcher, and the Nationals wisely gave up hoping that Mike Hinckley could be a useful pitcher. Meanwhile, the pantheon of baseball idiocy has found a new god – but more on that later. First, something that went right!
Shrewd Move of the Week: Imagine, if you will, a pitcher who comes out of the bullpen and walks almost a batter per inning. This pitcher only manages to strike out a batter every three innings. Did I mention he’s 30 and has a history of extreme mediocrity? But what if, by inexplicable luck of stranded runners and a low hit rate thanks to a .237 average allowed on balls in play, he has a 3.75 ERA? Should you let him keep pitching instead of going to pitchers who might put up better component statistics? No, you should not. And this is the wisdom that Indians GM Mark Shapiro found as applying to Vinnie Chulk. Chulk has had several big games for the Tribe this year, including 2 1/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox. But underneath his brief success was a set of statistics that screams “I’ve been incredibly lucky!” Chulk’s upside was… well, basically what they got from him, and Shapiro deserves to be commended for being willing to designate Chulk for assignment earlier this week. The only way I could be happier is if he manages to trade Chulk for something of value from a less thorough front office.
Oh, and…: Calling this week “uneventful” doesn’t really work for me as a Sox fan. Between writing and press time (a five-minute window in which found my Tic Tacs), it was learned that Red Sox “relief” “pitcher” Javier Lopez has finally been designated for assignment. Javy’s been every bit as awful as his 7.01 xFIP, posting an almost 2:1 walk:strikeout ratio. He’ll not be missed.
Question of the Week: What does Manny Ramirez’s suspension mean for the Red Sox? Very little. While I was quite surprised at Manny’s positive test for a banned substance, the theory that this undermines the Red Sox’ 2004 and 2007 championships is rather absurd. Admittedly, Sox fans may have lost some of the moral high ground from which they can boo the steroid-using Alex Rodriguez, but there’s a difference between what is immoral and what is unfair. If Manny was juicing in 2004 or 2007 – a fact that is certainly possible, though impossible to know for now – it means he’s the same slime as A-Rod. But the consensus is that steroids have run rampant through Major League Baseball for the past two decades; while the playing field may be heavily enhanced and artificially heightened, there’s no reason to think it hasn’t been level. Since countless other players and teams used the same “advantage” as a hypothetical ‘roided-up Manny and the Sox, I can’t see any loss of legitimacy to the ‘04 and ‘07 rings, and Manny’s possible crimes taint my memories of those years far less than his ugly exit from Boston.
Why Do You Still Once Again Have A Job? I like the Mariners. With their surprising strength early in the season, they provide a viable backup rooting plan in the AL West should the A’s continue to be hopeless. But other than a misguided wish to recapture the BABIP-luck-induced magic of a rookie 2002 in Colorado, there’s no justification for Denny Stark’s presence in the bullpen. Since being called up last week, Stark has pitched in four games. Only one of those appearances was a clean inning; each of the others involved at least as many walks as strikeouts. His worst outing came Tuesday, when he surrendered six runs on five hits (one a home run) and a walk to lose to Texas in the 10th inning. Stark’s major league career makes clear his poor control, inability to strike batters out, and problems with the long ball; his minor league numbers only show that he’s able to keep the ball in AAA stadiums, but still not very good at getting guys out. It would be nice if Stark could overcome multiple arm surgeries to be useful in his first major league season since 2004, but simply put, he has never been good enough to merit the chance Seattle is giving him right now. Perhaps continuing to contend is unrealistic for the Mariners, even in a weak division, but right now, they’re giving away games if they keep Stark.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: Why would anyone this willfully ignorant be hired for one of the most powerful jobs in baseball? I had written a serious (and furious) rebuttal to this – wherein Raul Ibanez’ unforeseeable defensive strength through one month of the season is used to undermine the validity of statistics – but you know what, Ruben Amaro, Jr.? You’ve set the Phillies back to the bottom quintile of my rooting hierarchy, but beyond that, you’re not worth the outrage. Instead, I’m just gonna take the most offensive part:
“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all,” Amaro said. “I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick. I think defense is subjective. You know, if you watch a guy, whether he has range or not. You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers. It doesn’t happen. “We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.”
and get FJM-y with it, piece by horrendous piece.
I do not buy numbers defensively.
I do not buy books at list price. Thanks for sharing your money-saving tips in these troubling economic times.
I look at fielding percentage.
Great way to show you “do not buy numbers defensively. At all.” Fielding percentage is not actually a number, but a special, magical tool to see how good a player is at defense. It’s like a Pensieve, except it only shows clips from SportsCenter.
What’s that? It’s actually just a measure of how good a guy is when he touches the ball, with no regard for how often he actually gets to it, which would be a far more accurate measure of defensive ability? Oh. Well, I’m sure that that common mistake won’t end my dreams of working for the Phillies.
I think defense is subjective.
The problem with sports these days is that there’s too much high-stakes testing going on. Everyone is so concerned with numbers that managers teach to the test instead of having their players learn to play the game. In the real world, how good teams are at baseball isn’t determined by numbers and percentages, but whether they Play The Game The Right Way. Like offense and pitching, defense is subjective; how it results in “runs” and “scoring” is just an illusion perpetuated by The Man to keep kids like Raul Ibanez from following their dreams and just having fun with the game.
And for that matter, why do people insist on trying to put labels on Brad Lidge? It’s subjective. Telling him that he’s been “losing” by giving up “runs” and letting the other team “score” is only going to destroy his love for the game! Damn it, he just loves watching the ball fly out of the park after he throws it, and that’s neither bad nor good – it’s what’s right for him.
You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers.
Exactly! And routes are what matter. If Ibanez takes routes that let him cut the ball off on the first hop, instead of catching it on the fly at the same rate that others in his position can, who are we to judge? The grace… the aesthetic awe that is a route… that’s so much more important than the result of the play. Smart people know that beauty trumps results every time; if only more people had voted for Diane Lane instead of that policy nerd Obama, I’m sure our economy would be booming by now.
We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.
Which is why fielding percentage is so important. It takes scouts and keenly-trained observers to count how many errors a guy makes, but something like Zone Rating? Why, any schmuck could measure that without having to look at an actual game! And lord knows we stat geeks just hate watching baseball.
why don’t we ever believe ourselves?
April 26, 2009 at 11:08 pm | In Baseball | 3 CommentsTags: Braves, Brian Bannister, David Ross, Erik Bedard, Giants, Mariners, Nationals, Royals, Saul Rivera, Travis Ishikawa
We’re coming in close to the deadline here, but it has been a busy weekend – a little time at The Prog (special shout-out to Suege, whose disposable income is exceeded only by his generosity, or maybe vice-versa), a little spring cleaning, some family commitments, plus some four-hour games too riveting to allow multitasking. But if ever there were a time when I could blog intensely about baseball, it’s now, when the Red Sox are making like Adam Lambert and looking so far beyond the competition that… wait, an American Idol analogy? That’s the best I can do?
Clearly, writing everything but this intro drained me, and that’s even though I lack enough conviction in any of my reflections to make a prediction this week; I’m as worn down as the Yankees’ bullpen. Hey, that’s more like it…!
Underrated Cut (Or, “This Is As Pointless As Not Bothering To Pick Up The Hundred-Dollar Bill You Just Dropped In A Puddle”): Not surprisingly, the Washington Nationals aren’t the brightest team out there. In the case of reliever Saul Rivera, their bad luck saved them from their stupidity; after being optioned down, Rivera returned to Washington when fellow reliever Joe Beimel ended up on the disabled list. There’s no question that Rivera has had a terrible year – with two home runs and as many walks as strikeouts in under eight innings, he’s hurt the Nationals tremendously. But sending him to the minors was a premature move; after all, his problems have come in a very small sample size, and he plays for the Nationals. Rivera was a solid late-innings guy in the past two seasons, and while he is too old to turn into anything more than that, he has plenty of value to a franchise starved for pitching. Instead, the hapless club seems to prefer retreads like Kip Wells and Julian Tavarez, or respectively failed and iffy prospects like Mike Hinckley and Garrett Mock – whose walks and strikeouts are no better than Rivera’s this year. That the team immediately recalled Rivera, whose bad outcomes may stem largely from a .481 BABIP, after placing Beimel on the DL would seem to validate that there isn’t an injury issue at hand, and that they simply became impatient and thought Rivera wasn’t one of their seven best relievers. It’s very little wonder that they’re baseball’s losingest team right now, and I can only hope that a club like San Diego is inquiring about Rivera at a low price.
Underrated Addition (Or, “Incompetent People Haven’t Turned To A Choice This Obvious Since Donald Rumsfeld Was Secretary of Defense”): There weren’t many players changing teams this week, so I’ll highlight Brian Bannister’s return to the big-league club in Kansas City as a very good, if very overdue, move. While the Royals’ pitching has been more than a little surprising in its quality this year, there was no reason to keep Horacio Ramirez as a fifth starter when the 28-year-old Bannister was performing adequately at Triple-A Omaha. Bannister had significant home run problems last year, but his solid rookie year in 2007 gives me reason to think he can still be a nice back-of-the-rotation arm. At the very least, he’s a safer bet than the perpetually usefulness-challenged Ramirez – and in a division with so many contenders, even one win of improvement could make a difference if the Royals somehow keep getting by with such a weak offense. (For the record, I still scoff at their status as a trendy postseason dark horse, but with Zack Greinke getting help from Gil Meche and Kyle Davies [!] at the front of the rotation, it’s not as absurd a concept as it was a month ago.)
Why Do You Still Have A Job? (Or, “They Need This Guy Like Kat Dennings Needs A Tan”) The Javier Lopez Award for Excellence in Futility could very easily be called “Giant of the Week,” and I was sorely tempted to just give it to San Francisco GM Brian Sabean. But because monumentally bad ballplayers can quickly become non-issues, I’ll err in favor of spotlighting one of several deserving “baseball players:” first baseman Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa played seven seasons in the Giants’ farm system, and rarely showed much reason to think of him as a top prospect. It’s not that he has no record of hitting (2008 was a career year), but that his defensive deficiencies limit him to playing first (if that; at this point, he may not cut it even there). As a first baseman, reasonable hitting expectations from his minor league record would make him an awful starter… and his 2009 year has been terrible beyond any expectations. In 42 at-bats, he has managed just nine hits – and only two that weren’t singles. His on-base percentage is the worst among MLB first basemen with over 5 at-bats, and his slugging percentage is in the bottom five. With his thirteen strikeouts to one walk, his average on balls in play stands at a very reasonable .310, giving no reason to believe this dreadful start is just bad luck. With no homers and so little plate discipline, there’s no explanation other than “he’s playing horribly,” and no excuse for the Giants not to simply sign a veteran until Ishikawa shows that he can come close to replacement level.
Question of the Week: Is Erik Bedard back? Yes. Bedard missed most of his first season in Seattle thanks to shoulder problems, but through four starts in 2009, he is every bit the ace for whom they believed they traded several very good young players. With more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and just more than a tenth as many walks, Bedard has a perfectly sustainable BABIP of .294. The only way in which he has been lucky is the low rate of home runs on fly balls, but even with a normalized rate, Bedard should complement Felix Hernandez very well at the front of the rotation. There is, of course, the caveat of small sample size, but Bedard’s dominance is as valid as anything one can conclude in April. His value doesn’t absolve former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi of a bad trade – the thirty-year-old is heading into free agency, and came at far too high a cost of younger, cost-controlled talent – but gives new GM Jack Zduriencik an All-Star caliber arm to keep or deal as he sees fit.
Player of the Week (Or, “I Haven’t Seen Anything This Hard-Hitting Since That CNN Reporter Showed How Clueless Those Tea Partiers Were”): It should be noted that this award is by no means an objective reflection on who has had the best week, but rather a spotlight on someone who has made a large impression this week. Objective measures of hot weeks are the sort of unequivocal facts that have made me hesitant to blog about baseball, so while it’s hardly the best analytical method, it’s nice to just take a player who may not be getting his due and give him, in my tiny corner of cyberspace, that due.
Braves catcher David Ross was limited to eight at-bats with the Red Sox last year, and because I felt he was shortchanged, I’m pleased to see him hitting this year – not to spite Boston, who are doing quite nicely with a resurgent Jason Varitek, but because he is too good a player to stay so unnoticed. While, like everything here, it comes with the caveat that it’s a very small sample, his Atlanta career has gone amazingly well so far. In just eighteen at-bats, he has four extra-base hits, including two homers, and has walked six times to just four strikeouts. There’s no way he continues his .417 BABIP and posts a full-season OPS well over 1.000, but with Brian McCann on the DL, Ross may finally get the playing time to establish himself as one of baseball’s best backup backstops.
who’ll stop the rain?
February 28, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a CommentTags: Mariners
6. Seattle Mariners (76.43% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 24
Added: 1Bs Russell Branyan, Chris Shelton, and Mike Carp; CF Franklin Gutierrez; LFs Ken Griffey Jr. and Endy Chavez; RPs David Aardsma, Tyler Walker, Eric Hull, Tyler Johnson, Jason Vargas, Luis Pena, Tracy Thorpe, Luis Munoz, and Jose Lugo; SP Garrett Olson; SS Ronny Cedeno; IFs Callix Crabbe, Reegie Corona, and Chris Woodward; DH Mike Sweeney
Lost: RPs J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jake Woods; LF Raul Ibanez; CF Jeremy Reed; IFs Tug Hulett, Miguel Cairo, and Luis Valbuena; OF/IF Willie Bloomquist; SP R.A. Dickey
Strengths: The Mariners make up for some of their deficiencies at the plate by carrying a group of strong defenders – C Kenji Johjima, 3B Adrian Beltre, CF Franklin Gutierrez, and RF Ichiro Suzuki – with only SS Yuniesky Betancourt and LF Ken Griffey Jr. representing significantly bad gloves. If Endy Chavez gets any playing time over Griffey in left, it would make one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.
Beyond SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle’s on-field strengths are rather tenuous. 1B Russell Branyan had a great 2008, and generally puts up enough walks and home runs to compensate – and then some – for his lousy contact rate. But he’s 33 and hasn’t spent a full season in the American League since 2001, so it’s tough to put complete faith in the slugger. Similarly, Beltre’s bumpy career path gives me less faith in him than I might another 30-year-old with decent component stats. The final player who might merit mention, SP Erik Bedard, is returning from shoulder surgery, having been out since July after being acquired at a high cost in young players last February.
It is, however, worth noting the overhaul the team went through this offseason. GM Jack Zduriencik, who was the Director of Scouting for the Brewers when they acquired much of their young core, carries a track record that should give fans hope, and I’m also impressed by his willingness to deal a valuable player like Putz – and come out ahead with a younger player (Gutierrez) with less service time (along with a non-negligible minor leaguer in Ezequiel Carrera). Between the new front office and a fresh coaching staff, the Mariners seem to have committed to rebuilding, a decision that would have been even more useful if made by Zduriencik(hereafter simply “Zd”)’s predecessor before trading for Bedard.
Weaknesses: Unfortunately for Mariners fans, Zd inherited a pretty weak team. The bullpen looks to be collection of castoffs from other teams (and their AAA affiliates), and the fact that I listed so many relievers who the team invited to spring training is very much a testament to how few strong incumbents the team has. The rotation is more set, but the options aren’t much better. It will be interesting to see what happens with pitcher Brandon Morrow, who would prefer to start and, despite control problems, looks to have as much upside as anyone on the roster who isn’t named Felix.
As I alluded with my cautious praise of Beltre and Branyan, the lineup is sorely lacking in sure things other than the futility of Yuniesky Betancourt. There’s little of note on the bench – either in young talent or in players who can help this year – and it’s hard to see any current position players other than Gutierrez and OF Wladimir Balentien being significant parts of the next competitive Mariners team. Jeff Clement could join those exceptions if he can get back to catching, but if his defense forces him to stay in a DH/1B role, he’s unlikely to be much of an asset. As I’ve said before, Bill Bavasi ran this team into the ground, and getting the Mariners back on track is not going to be easy.
My Stake: Zd has already made quite an impression as far as GM intelligence rankings go, and while a lot of his moves have been of smaller magnitude, I really liked his willingness to ship out Putz. Engaging in a three-way trade that involves giving up an All-Star pitcher, along with other majors-ready talent, takes guts – and a team as decimated as the Mariners were by Bill Bavasi’s reign will not get back on track with a GM too timid to move popular players. And as a risk-averse individual, I have particular admiration for GMs who are willing to take wise gambles where I might lack the courage to part with a known commodity.
I must acknowledge, however, that there seems to be a honeymoon period for new GMs wherein they look brighter than they ultimately prove to be. Whether it’s just the flaw of a small sample size or rival GMs not taking them as seriously as they should, it seems that rookie GMs often overperform and set expectations too high just before regressing with some less-than-awesome moves. We’ve seen it with Arizona’s Josh Byrnes and Boston’s Theo Epstein – who remains a favorite, but whose early hype didn’t predict an inability to resist overpriced free agent shortstops and Mark Kotsay – and it may be starting with Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman – who also still looks very smart overall, but whose offseason has featured several veteran relievers costing the team younger pitchers with greater upsides. The last few Next Big Things In Brilliant GMs have tended to turn out, well, human, so the deification of Jack Zduriencik seems foolish and premature. I’m putting more proven GMs ahead of him for now, though if he keeps doing what he’s doing, it’ll be tough to hold him back, especially considering my fondness for the city of Seattle and the above-average Safeco Field.
‘09 Predictions: The big question facing the Mariners is how important it is to post a decent season after disappointing unfair expectations last year; if they’re willing to write off 2009 entirely and accept outcry from the fan base, they could make some nice trades by the deadline – Branyan, Beltre, Johjima, and even Ichiro could be moved, and some of the team’s older pitchers might look attractive to plug holes created by injury and simply insurance against attrition as the summer heats up. The Mariners, however, don’t have the bench depth of a team like the Nationals, and trading significant pieces could keep the team from improving much on last year’s 67 Pythagorean wins. It would be the right move, because there’s not enough of a core here that a full rebuilding can be expected in just one or two years, but it could prove something of a litmus test as to just how gutsy Zd wants to be in his rookie year as GM. For now, however, I’ll put the Mariners at 72 wins; I don’t think they have to repeat last year’s futility, but their long-term interests might make it worthwhile to suffer 100 losses while restocking the farm.
‘08 rooting hierarchy ii: why do you let me stay here?
March 25, 2008 at 9:41 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Astros, Bill Bavasi, Dusty Baker, Giants, Mariners, Reds
While the Dodgers (and to a lesser extent lately, the Yankees) mask their front office blunders with high payrolls and overpaid players who still help their teams win, I can see no reason why the GMs of these teams keep their jobs.
27. Cincinnati Reds 10.34% unweighted; 4.97% weighted (0/10/14.29).
Last year: #26. 72-90, 5th in NL Central.
In 2008: Just when promising young players like Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce looked ready to contribute, the Reds went and hired veteran-favoring manager Dusty Baker. Baker, who opposes “clogging the bases” by letting slow players walk, is rather stubborn in his ignorance of reality, and is likely to hurt slow, walk-loving Adam Dunn’s production (as well as impede the development of Votto and Bruce). Amusingly, bullpen-fetishist GM Wayne Krivsky let the Padres (by way of the Marlins) pick up reliever Carlos Guevara in the Rule 5 draft, instead choosing to invest the team’s modest resources in “proven closer” Francisco Cordero and, less expectedly but more effectively, Jeremy Affeldt. The Reds have enough young players that a surge past 80 wins is possible, but under Baker, it seems particularly unlikely.
Prediction: 76-86, 3rd in NL Central
26. Seattle Mariners 13.79% unweighted; 12.58% weighted (0/20/12.5).
Last year: #20. 88-74, 2nd in AL West.
In 2008: I must confess that I did a bit of a double-take when I compared my Mariners prediction (which assumes the team refuses to give up early, and trades away its remaining prospects in a futile run at the division) to last year’s record. But as it turns, out, 2007’s “success” was largely the work of smoke and mirrors; the team was outscored by 19 runs over the course of the season. Even so, they decided to go for it in 2008, and Seattle fans will rue that decision for years to come. At first, trading reliever George Sherrill and prospect Adam Jones (and additional pitching prospects) for starter Erik Bedard didn’t seem that terrible. But on a team with many fading veterans, the 22-year-old Jones was one of few bright spots for the future, while Sherrill remains one of the most fantastic underrated relievers in baseball. Mortgaging the future to win in the present is one thing, but the Mariners essentially gave up their best prospect for a small upgrade whose salary makes the deal almost a wash for 2008. GM Bill Bavasi seems to have no idea where his team is in the cycle of building toward competitiveness, and with that in mind, how can he possibly know where the team is going? Combining an affinity for overrated, mediocre, and useless veterans with an undervaluation of young talent, Bavasi has scuttled the Mariners organization and gives no indication of an ability to right his ship.
Prediction: 80-82, 2nd in AL West
25. Houston Astros 17.24% unweighted; 16.76% weighted (20/10/21.43).
Last year: #27. 73-89, 4th in NL Central.
In 2008: In an active offseason, the Astros signed several players (Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, Doug Brocail, and the returning Brad Ausmus and Mark Loretta) who are expected to contribute next to nothing on the field. Yet wasted roster spots are less notable than some of the trades the club made to no apparent benefit. In a series of inexplicable events, the team ended up dealing away inconsistent closer Brad Lidge, solid setup man Chad Qualls, underrated 30-year-old outfielder Luke Scott, and assorted prospects, gaining “proven closer” Jose Valverde, former steroid-using 32-year-old shortstop Miguel Tejada, fourth outfielder Michael Bourn, and middle reliever Geoff Geary. The combination of Scott, Qualls, and Lidge will make less than Tejada alone in 2008, and the up-and-coming Scott has five more seasons before free agency. I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how a team could make such moves – actively playing the trade market but not helping itself at all – but there is no possible empirical, analytical justification.
Prediction: 70-92, 6th in NL Central
24. San Francisco Giants 20.69% unweighted; 21.54% weighted (25/18.18/21.43).
Last year: #19. 71-91, 5th in NL West.
In 2008: The Giants’ biggest move this winter was the damaging yet understandable decision to let Barry Bonds go as a free agent. It’s not so much Bonds’ criminal charges that justify the move as it is San Francisco’s general futility; the team’s inability to get to .500 is about as sure a thing as there is in sports, and spending extra money on an annoying veteran didn’t make that much sense. Of course, GM Brian Sabean would have been well served by remembering this before throwing more than five million dollars at 41-year-old Omar Vizquel, who can’t hit and is already injured, and giving a five-year contract to Aaron Rowand, whose defense has slipped and whose offense is unlikely to return to its 2007 level. When we consider the unimpressive non-prospects who round out the roster and last winter’s insane contract to Barry Zito, it seems that only their futility and harmlessness (and the superb Tim Lincecum) let a team with the incompetence of the Giants rank this highly on my list.
Prediction: 71-91, 5th in NL West
2007 rooting hierarchy iii: i’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me?
March 28, 2007 at 3:21 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Blue Jays, Bob Wickman, Braves, Giants, Gil Meche, J.P. Ricciardi, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, Ted Lilly
Today’s entry is a painfully tedious one: the below-average teams for whom I don’t see any reason to dislike.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates I have been reminded that I’m allowed to harbor some antipathy for an unconsummated Nate Cornejo/Mike Gonzalez trade that I overheard while at an Arizona Fall League game. But harboring Pirates antipathy is like holding a grudge against Dennis Kucinich or something – they’re too far from any sort of relevance to waste any thought.
20. Seattle Mariners David and Buck both see this as baseball’s third-least competent organization. It’s hard to disagree. But the rooting hierarchy isn’t about competence – the Mariners’ pitifulness, combined with a likable city and a few likable players, gets them all the way to the 33rd percentile.
19. San Francisco Giants Perhaps the ultimate case of likability prevailing in the face of incompetence, and almost entirely for city-based reasons. The players certainly aren’t favorites, and the ballpark, while scenic, isn’t an absolute great. But I just love San Francisco and, by extension, the team avoids being any lower. They sadly did allow the Cubs to sign SP Ted Lilly, so the dream of a Lilly-Cain double-header tandem and Veronica Mars promotion seems dead. It’s fair to say I have different dreams than, say, Gandhi.
18. Toronto Blue Jays What can I say about GM J.P. Ricciardi? Check that: what can I say about J.P. Ricciardi that isn’t a profanity? A former disciple of A’s GM Billy Beane, one expects stat-geekiness and competence. Instead, one gets flashes of genius (signing SPs Tomo Ohka and John Thomson to bargain contracts in an inflated market) in a record of horrible decisions (releasing Thomson in favor of proven failure Josh Towers, hugely overpaying the soon-past-peak Vernon Wells).
17. Atlanta Braves On organizational competence alone, one has to concede the Braves should be in the top 10 – they had a dynasty without overpaying and a solid farm system. But memories of their 1995 World Series triumph over the Indians remain painful, and more recently, they are using Bob Wickman, their third-best reliever, in what is assumed to be the most important bullpen role. “Begrudging respect” is the name of the game, though, as they also signed SP Mark Redman to a spectacularly small contract for what should be solid #4-5 starting.
16. Kansas City Royals Perhaps the icon of “too useless to dislike,” new Royals GM Dayton Moore has not done much to make me expect a turnaround, and gave SP Gil Meche one of the most mind-boggling contracts I have ever seen. It wasn’t an easy mistake to make – Meche is easily the worst signing of the winter when we factor in the “he’s terrible” consensus of stats and reputation. But still, the team has a scenic ballpark and is somewhat lovable in its lameness.
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