it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
all the young dudes
June 14, 2009 at 6:26 pm | In Baseball | 1 CommentTags: Angels, ASU baseball, Emilio Bonifacio, Howie Kendrick, Jose Arredondo, Marlins, Sean Rodriguez, Steven Strasburg
A baseball blogger would be remiss in any weekly round-up that didn’t touch on the amateur player draft. The problem is, it’s incredibly difficult to make conclusive judgements on these players; considering most of those who will make the majors are several years away, even the most rigorous statistical analysis cannot render conclusions in which I’d be confident. In general, I would tend to trust scouting reports and look for established talent rather than potential, but it remains difficult to excessively praise or brutally slam any given pick.
The elephant in the room, of course, is Steven Strasburg, who has basically unanimous support as the best player in the draft. The Nationals are in a tough spot – with so little talent in the majors or in their system, and no 21-year-old free agents with Strasburg’s stuff, there’s really no better use of money apparent right now. But what will be interesting to see is whether the team can resist the pressure (from the media and their fans) to rush Strasburg to the majors. No matter how good he proves to be, the long term interests of the team demand minimizing Strasburg’s service time until a better roster is assembled at the major league level. Fans may flock to see a 2010 rookie Strasburg, but bringing him up so soon would likely mean his arbitration years would begin before the team could reach .500. Their best case, then, would be having a Cy Young contender on 80-win clubs, then seeing him consume a fifth of their payroll by the time one big free agent could make a difference.
On a completely different note, it was nice to see a pair of Sun Devils go to Ohio ballclubs in the early part of the draft. Pitcher Mike Leake has slowly improved into one of the best pitchers in college baseball, and seems like a solid bet to make it to the majors for the Reds; I’m less confident that OF Jason Kipnis will make the majors, but his plate discipline seems impressive enough that it’s easy to see why the Indians took him in the second round. (Leake aside, plate discipline seems to be the recurring theme for ASU’s best products in recent drafts; as a fan of walks and OBP, I have more than simple homer-y reasons to root for the baseball program at my alma mater.)
Mistake of the Week: There weren’t many transactions this week that caught my eye, but the Angels shuffled their bullpen in a way that makes me wonder just how much the famously “scrappy”-hitting club discounts the long ball. While Jose Arredondo has struggled quite a bit with his control – of his last 8 outings, he has had as many two-walk games (3) as walkless appearances – he is hardly what ails Los Angeles of Anaheim’s relief corps. While his 25% line drive rate is concerning, his ground ball tendencies have produced a 3.25 xFIP, and his .412 BABIP is certainly inflating his hit rate. With more strikeouts than innings pitched and no home runs, it’s tough to see Arredondo as worthy of a demotion.
The Angels’ most used reliever, Jason Bulger, has allowed 5 home runs in just over 26 innings, while walking 12. Veteran Justin Speier is virtually identical with Arredondo in walks, but with fewer strikeouts and ground balls. While less than eight innings isn’t a great sample size for Rich Thompson, it’s rather telling that he has already coughed up three home runs to accompany his four walks. Replacing Arredondo for the moment is Kevin Jepsen, who has walked 5 in 6 2/3 innings this year (and has a history of control problems). Most of Jepsen’s failures came prior to a demotion to AAA Salt Lake, where he didn’t exactly turn things around: in 18 innings, he walked 16 batters and gave up four home runs. Whether or not we accept the premise that Arredondo is useful in spite of his walk problems, there’s little excuse to demote him with so many other lousy relievers in LA’s bullpen, and with a replacement who is almost certain to hurt the team.
Shrewd Move of the Week: It’s strange to bemoan the Angels for bullpen mistakes while praising their handling of hitters, but despite the miscalculation of Arredondo’s value, they have the right idea in the demotion of 2B Howie Kendrick. His replacement, Sean Rodriguez, is almost two years younger, and has more power than Kendrick, whose value has historically relied more on batting average (which is easier to do in the minors than against major league defenses) than stable skills like taking walks. Kendrick’s BABIP this year is .269, a mark that suggests that he’s been a bit unlucky when making contact. But he is also hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls than in any other year in his major league career, which suggests that regardless of whether he’s having tough breaks, he isn’t hitting in such a way that a turnaround is a sure thing. Rodriguez, meanwhile, leads the minor leagues in home runs; while his numbers are inflated by a friendly hitting environment, he has hit too well since last year to be blocked by a struggling player with options remaining.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? Florida infielder Emilio Bonifacio has been a target of my derision for some time now; dating back to his time with Arizona, it was clear he was the longest of shots to hit major league pitching.
…and then the Marlins fell in love. There he was, all speedy and tools-ful, and it was all the franchise could do not to lean over to its friend and declare, “See that kid? One day, I’m going to trade for him.” And trade for him the Marlins did, giving up Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen for Bonifacio and a couple of random non-prospects. But their relationship has been no fairy tale. No one can say when the Marlins fell out of love, but despite a recent demotion to the bottom of the order, Emilio has managed to lead Florida in plate appearances despite an on-base percentage worse than Matt Cain’s.
Bonifacio’s presence can be explained only by his hot start, playing third base and hitting .436 (with a 1.040 OPS and four steals) through the first ten days of the season. Since then, he has been the model of consistent incompetence, getting on base at a .279 clip during May, and managing all of one extra base thus far in June. Even with negative value in the field to compound his futility, he has kept his job remarkably far into the year, a grim indictment of the Marlins’ intelligence.
it’s just bad news, bad news, bad news
May 24, 2009 at 7:44 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: Aaron Miles, Cubs, Jody Gerut, Jonny Gomes, Kevin Towers, Marlins, Padres, Reds, Ricky Nolasco, Tony Gwynn Jr.
This is an awfully pessimistic selection of news items in a week that saw the Red Sox finally move into first place, the Padres extend their winning streak to nine games (and still end up as far from a division lead as the Orioles are), and the Braves start to make some noise in the NL East. Still, it’s hard to avoid the fact that there have been some truly pointless moves made this week by executives who should know better.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: How much longer must Red Sox fans suffer through Dennis Eckersley? This is actually a case in favor of him sticking around at NESN; if he was just full of inappropriate slips of the tongue, I could enjoy him. Instead, his color commentary gives Joe Morgan a run for his poorly-earned money.
Much-needed Journalistic Smackdown of the Week: Joe Posnanski ridicules Steve Phillips and those who make up subjective criteria to insist great players aren’t that good.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? It’s hardly news, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be criticized: the Cubs should never, ever have given Aaron Miles a major-league deal, much less a two-year contract at almost five million dollars. Miles is a fringe bench player who, at 32, is coasting on a flukishly productive 2008 (a year in which he almost posted a league-average OPS). This year, he’s regressed to the worst offensive production in his career, reaching base at just a .253 clip. On top of that, his only extra-base hits are six doubles, putting his slugging percentage at a paltry .269 – third worst among NL second basemen with more than 10 at-bats. Even if we give him an extra double and four extra singles to bring his BABIP up to .300, his OPS stands at a nauseating .636. This isn’t bad luck, this isn’t a bad start – this is a bad baseball player. That Chicago is paying him like an above-average bench presence – let alone giving him 21 starts! – is an insult to the intelligence of Cubs fans.
Mistake of the Week: I love Kevin Towers, but… this has not been a good week for the Padres’ GM. His reported trade bounty for starter Jake Peavy was, at best, a fair return – which begs the question of why he’d bother to take it rather than hold onto his under-contract ace. Still, it was the sort of deal that would have only slightly disappointed me had Peavy not vetoed the trade. But one under-the-radar trade did occur that makes me wonder what Towers is thinking. Disclosure of possible compromise to objectivity: my fondness for outfielder Jody Gerut is biased by having met the man at a Fall League game. But while his offensive production this year is underwhelming, it’s also out of line with what he demonstrated last year with only a little BABIP luck. More importantly, he has brought tremendous defensive value and helped cover the spacious outfield at Petco Park. Scott Hairston deserves more playing time, but Chase Headley isn’t gonna be a defensive asset in the outfield, and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff has been a far greater offensive disappointment than Gerut.
Still, despite being the least of San Diego’s problems, Gerut’s hardly a guy who should be considered untouchable in trade talks. The real problem here is the return: outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr. is not the hitter his father was. He’s had a solid 2009 at AAA, but it’s his fourth year at the level, and he’s never demonstrated a consistent ability to get on base or hit for power. His moderate speed might make him a fun player to watch, but his most optimistic upside would seem to be a slightly slower Juan Pierre. Unless Towers is assembling young talent for a larger deal, my faith is considerably shaken.
Underrated Cut: Like the Padres, the Marlins are a generally smart ballclub. They undermined my faith in them this offseason, but there’s little reason to think they’re a bumbling group of incompetents. Yet that’s the only way one can really justify the demotion of starter Ricky Nolasco, who will reportedly make at least two starts at AAA before returning to Miami. On one hand, the Marlins don’t have much to lose; after a hot start, they’ve fallen into a pretty solid fourth place. On the other hand, a tiny dent in Ricky Nolasco’s service time isn’t worth putting the big-league team at a considerable disadvantage this early in the season. Nolasco’s ERA stands at an atrocious 9.07, but I simply don’t think he’s been terrible as much as bad and unlucky. His strikeout and walk rates are in line with those of useful pitchers, and his XFIP stands at an acceptable 4.32. The surge in line drives and dip in grounders are worrisome, but to me, it’s far too early in the year to conclude that those wouldn’t return to normal.
Perhaps Nolasco has lost his ability to command his stuff, but the bottom line is this: If I’m wrong, the Marlins would keep him around to continue giving up a few too many homers. If I’m right, they’re insulting a 26-year-old who was their best pitcher last year, hurting his confidence while giving him no reason to feel any loyalty to the team when he reaches free agency. And for what? An early look at the raw, erratic arm of Sean West? With Rick VandenHurk and Anibal Sanchez on the DL, there’s really no way anyone the Marlins promote will be as good as Nolasco. The six-year cycle has been broken; 2009 is not going to be a fun year for Marlins fans.
Underrated Addition: Not to end this on such a negative note, it’s worth noting that the wildcard-contending Reds finally did something about their thin outfield. After a quarter season of Darnell McDonald – an experiment whose failure should surprise no one – the team recalled Jonny Gomes, who declined sharply after a great rookie campaign in 2005, but remains young enough, at 28, to be a very good hitter. While he struck out quite a bit at AAA Louisville, he could add some power to the Reds’ bench, and at least be an upgrade from McDonald. He and Laynce Nix give Cincy what I believe is their best shot of winning this year, and that dark horse chance at a playoff berth gives me my only real interest in the NL Central.
the summer’s gone, and so are we
February 22, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Marlins
12. Florida Marlins (54.40% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 10
Added: RPs Leo Nunez, Kiko Calero, Jason Standridge, Brian Sanches, Scott Proctor, Zach Kroenke, Dan Meyer, Willie Collazo, and Jose Ceda; OF Jay Gibbons; 2B Emilio Bonifacio; SPs Mike Wood and John Koronka
Lost: 1B Mike Jacobs; LFs Josh Willingham and Luis Gonzalez; SPs Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson; RPs Joe Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Kevin Gregg, and Doug Waechter; Cs Paul Lo Duca and Matt Treanor
Strengths: As they so often do, the Marlins have some nice cheap commodities acquired in trades of more expensive players to teams not comfortable with baseball’s smallest payroll. As well as the aforementioned-by-implication SS Hanley Ramirez, 25, and SP Ricky Nolasco, 26, the team has non-trade-acquired 2B Dan Uggla and CF Cody Ross, both 28. While Uggla is now costly enough to be the team’s next major trade candidate, he’s also a nice offensive asset (and average defender) at second base. Ross’ value, having been moved from center to a corner outfield spot, comes largely from his defense; if he can provide even average output at the plate (the power is fine, the patience less so), it would be a nice boost for a very young team. Thanks almost entirely to Ramirez, who led shortstops in on-base percentage (.400), slugging (.540), and home runs (33), the lineup should be one of the NL’s better. At a ridiculously low payroll, that’s something for which GM Larry Beinfest should be proud.
Weaknesses: The Marlins lost an awful lot of talent in the offseason, and responded with a bunch of non-roster invitations to spring training for players highly unlikely to contribute more than a fraction of a win. The bullpen looks to have an impressive number of options for #4-5 guys, but little else; Matt Lindstrom and Leo Nunez should compete for saves, and while both are fine arms to have, neither looks like a very good closer. The bullpen could be okay if the shotgun approach finds a few one-year wonders, but will more likely be pretty awful. The rotation is similarly devoid of a clear #1 or 2 pitcher, particularly with Josh Johnson having missed most of two seasons around Tommy John surgery. While Ricky Nolasco’s breakout ‘08 looks fairly legit, Chris Volstad is highly unlikely to repeat his 2.88 ERA; the flawed metric doesn’t point out his mediocre strikeout/walk rates, and his low home run rate looks flukish even with his high ground ball rate.
Even on a young and cheap team, having Jorge Cantu – with a career OPS+ of 102 – at first base would be a pretty awful offensive move (and Cantu’s glove may not even work out that well at first). The most apparent alternative would be putting him at third and Dallas McPherson at first, but McPherson’s bat has been similarly flat since coming to the majors, and his glove is a similar non-asset. Either, however, would be better than upsideless veteran Wes Helms.
Not-yet-22-year-old Cameron Maybin has been penciled in as the team’s center fielder, but while he impressed in a ridiculously small sample size last September, his enormous strikeout totals at AA makes clear to me that he is not yet ready for the big leagues. He could provide a little power and some speed, but the team would probably be better off throwing Alfredo Amezaga into the outfield than spending valuable service time on a great prospect who is far from ready to fulfill his potential.
My Stake: Looking at this team in more depth than I usually give to complete non-contenders, I can understand why fans are frustrated at the Marlins’ unwillingness to spend. It is simply mind-boggling that baseball allows this situation to continue. There is enough young talent that with even an extra $20 million of free agents – enough, by 2008 totals, to keep them the lowest payroll in the game – this club could reach .500; with a 25th-ranked payroll, they could be a favorite in the division. With a decent left fielder – Josh Willingham, anyone? – to push Ross back to center and delay Maybin’s promotion and an average first baseman (Mike Jacobs was not.), they could pick up a handful of wins. With any sort of free agent for whom there could be competition, they would likely reach .500. The world of hypotheticals, however, is the only place where Marlins fans are likely to see a fairly smart organization rewarded for its shrewdness. I don’t want to take my dislike of cheapness out on a smart front office, but one pair of transactions make me feel better about keeping the Marlins this low: the team refused to tender an $800,000 contract to reliever Joe Nelson, who was coming off a career year; they instead gave similar money to Scott Proctor, who had elbow surgery in October and has never had a single season as good as Nelson’s 2008. Cheapness is one thing, but preferring Proctor to Nelson with monetary factors and injury risk being comparable is insanity.
‘09 Predictions: This is yet another Marlins team with too much young talent to really bash, but too little talent to really like. Because of the various holes on the club, and the decent possibility of another trade, I can’t give them too much credit in my prediction. But after realizing how close they are to being good, I’ve worked backwards a bit from my theoretical Marlins and decided that right now, this looks like a 76 win team; they overachieved based on their Pythagorean record in 2008, and lost a great deal of talent this winter, but there’s still enough youth and upside in the outfield and rotation that I can’t see them falling into a completely hopeless state.
‘08 rooting hierarchy v: i am rotten to my core if they’re to be believed
March 28, 2008 at 11:19 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Angels, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers
The rooting hierarchy hasn’t clustered with any real themes until tonight: guilty pleasure teams! Also: I’m inordinately pleased that I got to use a Garbage lyric for a title.
12. Washington Nationals 63.45% unweighted; 65.41% weighted (60/72.73/57.14)
Last year: #11. 73-89, 4th in NL East
In 2008: The Nationals don’t do much right, but are in an interesting situation: they’re so far from a serious contender that short contracts to aging veterans don’t do much damage. Case in point: the fact that the team’s catching situation was ugly enough that Paul Lo Duca is an acceptable one-year stopgap. The signing of Aaron Boone and the team’s dearth of prospects is more representative of the fact that GM Jim Bowden has a long way to go before he has a decent franchise, while the release of SP John Patterson is a sad reminder that even though the club picked up young outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes at very low costs, the Nats aren’t particularly competent. Still, by a combination of being pathetic and having a sabermetrics-friendly manager in Manny Acta, the Nationals defy their front office’s merits and earn a soft spot in my heart.
Prediction: 71-90; 5th in NL East
11. Florida Marlins 64.14% unweighted; 67.61% weighted (65/72.73/57.14)
Last year: #6. 71-91, 5th in NL East
In 2008: The Marlins got some nice players in the Miguel Cabrera trade (though it could be argued that they would have gotten more by trading Dontrelle Willis separately), but it’s apparent that unless ownership changes hands, they need to get used to trading away their stars. With a shoestring budget, the team has to play still-developing prospects and hope that in a couple of years, everything breaks right during the same season. To a casual baseball fan living in Miami, this state of affairs would be understandably miserable. To a devoted lover of the game, it’s actually an entertaining cycle to watch, and it’s hard to root against a team in such difficult circumstances.
Prediction: 73-89; 4th in NL East
10. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 70.34% unweighted; 62.85% weighted (46.67/70/75)
Last year: #22. 94-68, 1st in AL West, lost ALDS
In 2008: I used to think that Bill Stoneman was a good GM and his staff just fell short at player evaluation sometimes. But the new GM, former Director of Player Development Tony Reagins, seems to have a far better handle on things than his predecessor. The team has been fairly quiet, but Reagins showed he wasn’t afraid to shake things up when he traded popular shortstop Orlando Cabrera for starting pitcher Jon Garland. Garland’s acquisition was a smart move at the time, but looks even bigger now that Kelvim Escobar’s shoulder problems are flaring up. The team has enough farm depth that, should Escobar miss the season, they may be able to find another arm. Even if they can’t, they’ve got a better-than-good chance at making the postseason.
The signing of Torii Hunter is an interesting point of debate, but while everyone expected him to be overpaid, he received a fairly reasonable deal given the market (certainly not bad compared to other big center fielder contracts) and helped the team address an easily improved area (Reagins has thus far failed to complete the process, however; he has kept surplus outfielders Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera). With that in mind, I like what I’ve seen from Reagins enough that I’m finally willing to give up the antipathy I’ve held for years based on the team’s love of small ball and rivalry with the A’s.
Prediction: 90-72; 1st in AL West, lose ALDS
9. Texas Rangers 71.03% unweighted; 65.05% weighted (53.33/70/75)
Last year: #14. 75-87, 4th in AL West
In 2008: When I think of divisions with a lot of likable teams, the AL West doesn’t usually spring to mind. But if I’ve come to like the Angels as much as I have, the Rangers have to rank even higher. While they certainly have pitching problems, their offseason was rather productive (aside from the inexplicable signing of 1B Ben Broussard). They added SPs John Patterson and Jason Jennings, each recovering from elbow surgery, for fairly inexpensive rotation help, and extended reliever Joaquin Benoit’s contract; hours ago, they traded a walk-prone A-ball pitcher for reliever Dustin Nippert. An overhaul of the outfield included signing Milton Bradley (like the Cubs and Kosuke Fukudome, this hurt me as a Padres fan) and trading a pair of expendable, unremarkable pitchers to the Reds for 27-year-old CF Josh Hamilton, who should be one of the AL’s best center fielders if he stays healthy. The team needs a lot more pitching to even contend for a wildcard, but GM Jon Daniels is starting to live up to his potential.
Prediction: 78-84; 4th in AL West
8. Atlanta Braves 75.86% unweighted; 84.58% weighted (100/72.73/71.43)
Last year: #17. 84-78, 3rd in NL East
In 2008: The Braves’ offseason was much more inconsistent than most of these upper half teams’; Atlanta got a nice return when trading overpaid, free-agent-at-the-end-of-the-season Edgar Renteria, and avoided any particularly foolish signings. On the other hand, they traded away a pair of solid major leaguers (Willy Aybar, Joey Devine) and got essentially nothing (for Devine, they added replacement-level CF Mark Kotsay, who should not be on a contending team) in return. Still, I’ve spent too long forgiving the 1995 team and getting past the “dynasty” hype to let a few missteps stop me from liking a franchise that has lost 75 games only twice since 1991; I would love to see them make a return to the postseason. From the “don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone” category, my fondness for the Braves is growing as TBS’ coverage of the team wanes; I have a surprising amount of memories related to the national TV coverage of a team I wasn’t rooting for.
Prediction: 88-74; 2nd in NL East, lose NLDS
2007 rooting hierarchy v: one step closer to knowing
March 30, 2007 at 11:55 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a CommentTags: Brewers, Devil Rays, Marlins, Tigers
Does this series end tomorrow with the top 5, or drag into Sunday with the top 3 getting their own entry? I honestly have no idea! I just know I should have spreadsheeted spreadshate spreadsheeten the teams’ pros and cons and determined my opinion with math, then been even more irrelevant to my non-readers by talking about statistics. Well, plenty of time for that later!
9. Milwaukee Brewers The Brew Crew has slipped two spots since last time, and honestly, they should probably be even lower on this list. Why? Simply put, Jeff Suppan and his four-year contract. Sup is 32, isn’t even an average major league starter, and his career highlight (for me) remains getting tagged out at third base in the 2004 World Series. Then there were the trades of Carlos Lee and Doug Davis… simply put, the team has totally lost its way. But still, they’re the Brewers, so the silliness is sorta cute, and they’ve got a good core of young talent.
8. Detroit Tigers Another team that’s dropped off a bit since 2006. The Tigers still have a fine organization, and I was thrilled to see them win the pennant. There’s a sentimental likability to them, and there’s also a lot to like from an analytical standpoint. Of course, the pennant team included Magglio Ordonez, Todd Jones, and Sean Casey, none of whom were good ideas. And this winter, the team added Jose Mesa and a contract-extended Gary Sheffield to the mix. The love of questionable veterans could be the organization’s downfall, but for now, they’ve got a chance at another playoff run.
7. Tampa Bay Devil Rays To anyone with passing knowledge of Major League Baseball, calling the Devil Rays anything close to competent might sound odd. But their major league futility is largely the result of insane spending a few years ago, when players like Greg Vaughn got huge contracts and performed badly (as expected). With plummeting attendance in a market that may not be huge on baseball to begin with, and a stadium that feels like a tomb, they suddenly ran out of resources. There are now few options other than rebuilding with youth (and wisely-signed Japanese import 3B Akinori Iwamura) and hoping for the best. There’s not enough there to contend, but it’s impossible for me to dislike an organization with this many great minor leaguers.
6. Florida Marlins As people here have pointed out before, the Marlins may be smarter than I’ve given them credit for. Since 2003, they’ve done everything to retool and stay cheap while putting themselves in position to win again. They may take a step back this season – they’re starting a 23-year-old rookie named Alejandro De Aza in center field, and 2B Dan Uggla is likely to drop off from his 2006 productivity. As far as recent competence goes, their offseason consisted of paying too much for RP Jorge Julio. The real question is, how much can they squeeze from the Yankees in exchange for SP Dontrelle Willis?
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