you have seen too much in too few years

May 31, 2009 at 6:14 pm | In Baseball | 1 Comment
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Why Do You Still Have A Job? There are several White Sox eligible to have their employment questioned, but outfielder Scott Podsednik is the oldest and the most distanced from a semblance of usefulness. His last on-base percentage over .330 was in 2005; his only slugging percentage over .400 was in his rookie 2003. While his contract for just $800,000 makes him an inexpensive mistake, it also means that his release wouldn’t be costly for the White Sox. Instead of buying him out and going after Jim Edmonds or a trade, they’ve let Podsednik play regularly to .654 OPS, and he’s been caught as many times as he’s successfully stolen a base, making his baserunning aggressiveness an extra liability on top of his consistent failure to hit. Worst of all for the White Sox: he stands to get more playing time while Carlos Quentin is on the DL.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: Is Nick Green trying to fill a certain void in Boston? I’m as thrilled as any Red Sox fan at the production that part-time shortstop Green is giving at the plate – even though it’s largely due to a fortuitous .367 BABIP – but lately, he’s started to betray an extreme lack of baseball intelligence. On more than one occasion, he’s been thrown out at second after trying to stretch singles that had no business being stretched. In one memorable mental gaffe, he botched a rundown of an opposing player and didn’t get any outs on a ground ball right to him. And today, he was picked off of first base by the catcher… when there was already a runner occupying second. The Red Sox have a slugging left fielder with lousy defense, Manny, and Ramirez; Green seems determined to take over as the guy who makes head-scratchingly stupid decisions on the field.
Mistake of the Week: I’ve never accused Mets GM Omar Minaya of being a genius. He’s assembled some high-budget teams with some gaping holes; while he can identify and pursue superstar players, he’s shown considerably less ability to build complete rosters deep with useful talent. Nothing he does during the 2009 season is likely to match the mistake of the Oliver Perez contract, but his recent handling of the club’s backup catcher situation is nonetheless further evidence of his questionable competence. Ramon Castro is no All-Star, but he constantly hits more than adequately for his role, and would be quite acceptable if forced to start for any length of time. Making over two million dollars is a bit pricey for a reserve, but Castro certainly earns his paycheck more than, say, Luis Castillo. But when Omir Santos got off to a hot start, Minaya elected to keep the rookie – despite a dreadful set of minor-league numbers – and gave Castro to the White Sox for non-prospect Lance Broadway. It’s one thing to become enamored of a young player with a mixed track record, but Santos is 28 and has never shown any indication that he could slug over .400 in the majors (he hasn’t hit that mark since A-ball). Meanwhile, the Mets picked up part of Castro’s salary, mitigating their savings in the trade; they were so desperate to be rid of a backup catcher who has outhit most of their current bench (and several starters) that they didn’t even make Chicago take on the full salary. Between this and the willful ignorance of Philly’s GM, their NL East rivals in Atlanta are becoming even more likable.
Question of the Week: Have I made too little of the emotional toll of baseball? Zack Greinke is making quite an impact this year not only due to his stellar pitching (his XFIP remains under 3.00), but also because of his compelling personal story – he has bounced back from depression and social anxiety disorder that had threatened to end his career. This week, Cardinals shortstop Khalil Greene hit the disabled list after battling anxiety problems, while Reds first baseman Joey Votto was DLed for a “stress-related issue.” Perhaps it is the gradual decline of the stigma against mental health issues letting more players take time off rather than play while suffering, or maybe there is truly an increase in such problems among athletes as a result of obscene salaries while most of the country is in a deep recession. Either way, however, it’s undermining the idea that team psychologists can weed out players with potential issues before they get drafted or reach the bigs; while “clutch hitters” are a debunked myth, I’m now more willing to consider the possibility that certain players don’t have the mental makeup to continue minor league success once making it to the majors. I’m not going to trivialize mental illness by pretending to diagnose any specific conditions, but the growing visibility of anxiety problems in Major Leaguers has made me
more open to accepting that certain players’ struggles may continue, despite track records to the contrary.

Boston’s Julio Lugo has a bit of a “choker” reputation, and it would be easy to explain some of his awful defense with the stress of playing in front of one of baseball’s most hardcore fan bases. Phil Hughes dominated the minors with stellar control and limited long balls, but has had considerable problems with walks and home runs since getting called up by the Yankees (it’s worth noting that he pitches in baseball’s toughest division, but his peripheral numbers are still startling). Completing the trio of AL East mysteries is Tampa Bay’s Grant Balfour, who has had control problems throughout his career but seemed to harness his stuff in 2008, walking only 24 batters in 58 innings. After granting 8 “ball four”’s in 11 playoff innings last year, he’s given 15 free passes in just 23 innings this year.

I know none of these players and am not qualified to draw any conclusions. It’s quite possible that Balfour’s disappearing-then-reemerging issues were simply sample size and unfamiliarity helping him get through most of 2008 unscathed despite a problem that has plagued his career. Hughes has less than 30 major-league starts, and Lugo could simply be getting older and losing his ability. But considering how many issues seem invisible to teams until they’re too much to handle, isn’t it worth considering that perhaps the mental health of MLB players isn’t as guaranteed as we often assume?

meet the mets

February 11, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 Comment
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23. New York Mets (12.11% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 15
Added: RPs Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Darren O’Day, Rocky Cherry, Kyle Snyder, and Elmer Dessens; SPs Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding, and Casey Fossum; OFs Jeremy Reed, Bobby Kielty, and Cory Sullivan; IF Alex Cora
Lost: SP Pedro Martinez; OFs Moises Alou, Trot Nixon, and Endy Chavez; RPs Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, Luis Ayala, and Scott Schoeneweis; 2B Damion Easley
Strengths: While Rodriguez’s much-hyped 2008 was actually a bad year for the closer (declining strikeouts, continuing to have a worrisome walk rate, his worst FIP and xFIP in five years), he, along with Putz, gives a considerable boost to a much-maligned bullpen.

3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes make the left side of the infield the best in baseball, and each will be only 26 this season.  While older – soon to be 32 – CF Carlos Beltran offers similar value as a defensive and offensive weapon; while pricey, his contract should be perfectly acceptable in its final three years, even allowing for modest decline.
Weaknesses: Well, certainly not the bullpen.  After years of criticism and a couple late-season fades, GM Omar Minaya finally addressed the issue by taking on half of the closers from the AL West.  On top of that, he seems to have decided to throw a couple of Rule 5 draftees, along with the holdovers from last season, at the wall, and enough talent will likely stick that the problem will be fixed, even though it has not been the most efficient solution (particularly considering the walk issues of several of the incumbent relievers and Green).

After that, however, the team’s pitching is more of a question mark despite the rotation’s strength in 2008.  If veteran Freddy Garcia can stay healthy – an iffy proposition – some of the problem will be mitigated, but if not, the team will trust as its fifth starter Tim Redding, whose home run woes and low strikeout rates didn’t prevent a $2m contract, or lefty Jon Niese, who seems highly respected as a prospect despite a thoroughly unremarkable minor league career.  I am not yet sold on John Maine as a front-of-the-rotation guy, and 25-year-old Mike Pelfrey’s breakout year featured an abnormally low number of outfield flies clearing the fence – a sign that his home run rate was deceptively low.  Pelfrey and Maine could be fine in a deeper rotation, but recently re-signed Oliver Perez will have to pitch well to let them act as the #3 and 4 starters they should be.  Perez, despite a 3-year, $36 million contract, is not the top-tier starter as which he seems to be perceived.  To demonstrate, I shall use a comparison made by David:

  • Starter #1: 3.8 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 2008; average of 3.5 BB/9 and  1.3 HR/9 in 2006 and 2007.  2008 FIP/xFIP: 4.57/5.05
  • Starter #2: 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 2008; average of 4.6 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9 in 2006-2007. 2008 FIP/xFIP: 4.69/5.02

Starter #2 is Perez.  Starter #1 is Jason Marquis.  While Perez’s strikeout rate is greater than Marquis’, and his relative youth (at 27) may give him more long-term value, the walks and home runs are a very real problem – and as the xFIP indicates, someone with Perez’s fly ball rate was lucky to allow as few home runs as he did in 2008.

A generally potent offense will be hindered by light-hitting 2B Luis Castillo (to Castillo’s credit, he stole 17 bases and was caught just twice last year; while his speed may be declining, his selectiveness is to be praised).  The Mets signed fellow batless wonder Alex Cora to back him up, but if they hit as poorly as all statistics indicate they will, the team could consider going to prospect Daniel Murphy.  Murphy, generally an outfielder, played second base in the Arizona Fall League despite defensive shortcomings at third earlier in his career.  But if Castillo, who is signed through 2011 at $6 million a year, repeats his 2008 performance, and Cora reverts to his ‘05-’07 level, the team could well decide that the defensive dropoff is worth Murphy’s comparably strong bat (by no means does he look like a hitter worthy of LF or 1B, but it doesn’t take much to be a better offensive weapon than Luis Castillo).
My Stake: I used to be quite fond of the Mets.  Edgardo Alfonzo had some really great years (in retrospect, his value in ‘97 and ‘98 was quite limited at third base; only as a second baseman was he a significant asset), Turk Wendell’s awesomeness was impossible to deny, and most importantly, they were the best bet in a division that included both teams to defeat my hometown Indians in the World Series (it took over a decade for me to get over the Braves’ ‘95 win, and TBS gave me a nice network for schadenfreude; while more surprising and dramatic, the Marlins’ victory was forgiven when they took down the Yankees in ‘03).

But now… the Mets are pitiful, and I’m not talking about their high-profile division losses to the Phillies in recent years.  Considering the contracts of Perez, Castillo, Redding, and Cora, on top of past follies with Schoeneweis and Guillermo Mota, the team seems to have zero comprehension of free agent value.  While they will never be the Evil Empire, their willingness to throw money at aging and overrated players resembles some of the worst Yankee offseasons.
‘09 Predictions: While the acquisitions of Putz and Rodriguez certainly bolster the bullpen, it still hurts that closer Billy Wagner will likely miss the season after Tommy John surgery; his 47 innings in 2008 were quite valuable.  On top of that, the team could very well see a decline in production from LF Fernando Tatis, whose .343 BABIP in ‘08 is considerably higher than his .309 career mark.  Now 34, there’s little guarantee that he’ll continue the career revival he saw last year.

I’m going to say that the upgrades to the back end of the bullpen will be canceled out by a few players regressing, and the team ends up, again, at 89 wins.  I’ll also predict that when they manage this dramatic non-improvement, Rodriguez will be praised on ESPN for bringing stability to the bullpen.

‘08 rooting hierarchy iv: there’s winners, and there’s losers, but they ain’t no big deal

March 27, 2008 at 10:36 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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18. St. Louis Cardinals 41.38% unweighted; 47.91% weighted (60/30/42.86).
Last year: #10. 78-84, 3rd in NL Central.
In 2008: It’s not hard to remember the Cardinals as perennial contenders who were widely respected through the baseball world. Yet they have fallen fast, and new GM John Mozeliak has given no indication that he knows how to turn the organization around; until they show signs of life, St. Louis is not redeemed in my eyes by past success under a different GM. Strokes of bad luck – injuries to Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, the team’s two best players – do not excuse giving a so-so pitcher like Russ Springer twice his market value, nor do they negate signing Joel Pineiro or giving a job to incapable-of-hitting Cesar Izturis. Still, the Cardinals have done a few things right – namely, giving incentive-filled contracts to starters Matt Clement (recovering from shoulder surgery) and Kyle Lohse (recovering from thinking he could get a four-year deal), and getting D’Angelo Jimenez to hopefully oust Brendan Ryan from the team’s utility infielder role – and therefore had a better winter than some teams.
Prediction: 71-91, 5th in NL Central

17. Toronto Blue Jays 44.83% unweighted; 46.81% weighted (50/44.44/43.75).
Last year: #18. 83-79, 3rd in AL East.
In 2008: I’m not sure if there’s a team about whom I care less than the Blue Jays. J.P. Ricciardi is supposedly a sabermetrics-friendly GM, but he is nowhere near the other “stat guys” running teams. The Jays alienated many sabermetricians, to be sure, by signing the legendarily overrated David Eckstein (ironically, the contract actually wasn’t that out of line with Eck’s abilities), and Ricciardi has been known to make moves that Billy Beane would never consider. Yet as is a better habit of his, he signed several low-profile players – not stars, nor huge assets, but solid contributors – to deals far below the market would have expected. This is similar to the club as a whole: plenty of small things to like, despite a few high-profile negatives; ultimately, it’s a hallmark of a bland, boring team that inspires neither love nor antipathy.
Prediction: 82-80; 4th in AL East

16. New York Mets 48.28% unweighted; 41.05% weighted (25/54.55/50).
Last year: #13. 88-74, 2nd in NL East.
In 2008: The Mets are a frustratingly inconsistent club. This offseason, they overpaid Luis Castillo – speedsters in their mid-thirties are seldom a wise investment – and traded 23-year-old Lastings Milledge for a bad catcher and an older outfielder. But they also saw, where Milwaukee did not, the value of reliever Matt Wise (and negative value of Guillermo Mota); they found a bargain in reserve infielder Marlon Anderson; and for whatever reason, were the team to benefit from Bill Smith’s willingness to take the third-best package for Johan Santana. It’s not a staggering display of front office talent, but I’ve historically had a soft spot for the franchise, and whether by luck or by design, they pulled off one of the best trades of the year.
Prediction: 89-73; 1st in NL East, lose NLDS

15. Detroit Tigers 51.72% unweighted; 58.5% weighted (75/44.44/50).
Last year: #8. 88-74, 2nd in AL Central.
In 2008: It’s hard to attack the Tigers on their front office merits, particularly in the wake of their mind-boggling bargain extension of Miguel Cabrera. Yet while they’ve become an offensive juggernaut without spending on the wrong hitters, they reside in the same division as the Indians. Academic respect doesn’t always translate to active support, and unless my native ballclub does something to squander my fandom, the Tigers’ rival status vastly outweighs their competence.
Prediction: 91-71; 1st in AL Central, lose ALDS

14. Chicago Cubs 55.17% unweighted; 63.89% weighted (80/40/57.14).
Last year: #24. 85-77, 1st in NL Central, lost NLDS.
In 2008: For a contending team with rather apparent weak spots, the Cubs were surprisingly quiet this winter. Of course, learning from some of the teams reviewed to this point, standing pat is sometimes a valid strategy. But what Chicago’s winter lacked in bulk, it made up for in quality. The biggest free agent splash was Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, whose signing may have had the biggest rooting hierarchy impact of any single transaction. While it hurt to see the Padres miss out on such a promising import, the Cubs have earned my respect and interest by that move alone. It doesn’t hurt that their other major moves over the winter included dumping the contract of Jacque Jones, bringing back Kerry Wood, and getting Jon Lieber to fill out the rotation at a reasonable cost. Like the Orioles, the Cubs have a track record of great concern, but with so many teams showing more recent incompetence, I’m willing to give some leniency until they overpay another player like Jason Marquis.
Prediction: 92-70; 1st in NL Central; lose World Series

13. Colorado Rockies 58.62% unweighted; 56.92% weighted (50/63.64/57.14).
Last year: #23. 90-73, 2nd in NL West, lost World Series.
In 2008: In case David happens to read this entry: I’m well aware that the Rockies have really turned things around and have some incredible homegrown talent. On top of that, they’ve been prudently aggressive in getting players into long-term deals. Yet their taste in free agents is often mind-boggling – this winter’s signings include Mark Redman, Kip Wells, Yorvit Torrealba, and Luis Vizcaino – and on a more subjective level, Clint Hurdle is one of the most annoying managers I’ve seen.
Prediction: 82-80; 4th in NL West

another pleasant valley sunday

February 1, 2008 at 7:08 pm | In Baseball, Football | 4 Comments
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I am totally palping the Super Bowl excitement in the valley. On two blocks of Mill Avenue, there are no fewer than three temporary retail outlets. I have seen my share of limos and cars too shiny to belong to people with mere five-figure incomes. And where there are hardcore Patriots fans, there are Red Sox fans, so I’m feeling quite at home.

Not-Really-A-Prediction-Because-It-Is-Indefensible-By-Logic Prediction: The other night, I dreamed that New England lost 19-17 on a failed field goal as the clock wound down. I guess that it’s not that much crazier than if I took some time, thought about the game, and came up with a pair of numbers – and if it actually happens, I can claim to have Super powers.
Liking-People-For-Specious-Reasons Person of the Week: Anyone who knows me (or who regularly reads this blog) knows that while I don’t arbitrarily like people or root for teams, I do tend to latch onto relatively minor or even meaningless positives to break me out of ambivalence. I was already a fan of Bill Belichick’s fashion sense (had I the money, I’d cut sleeves off my sweatshirts and look homeless, too!) and mindset (the espionage scandal is the ultimate demonstration of his strategic obsessiveness), but I was really sold when I found out that his music tastes are pretty nice, too: Belichick was his usual gruff, monotone self — except when he talked glowingly about Brady, Bruschi, the Giants and the scheduled halftime performer, Tom Petty. “I think it’s great,” he said of Petty, with a half-smile. “I wish I could stand out there and listen to it, but I’ll have some of his CDs playing in my office this week. That’ll put me in the mood: “Free Fallin’.” Not only does he talk about being a Petty fan, but he cites one of my very favorite songs (I guess I need to make that list…)? That seems reason enough to blog about my growing fondness for him.
Johanalysis: By popular demand, I feel I must give some quick thoughts about the New York Mets’ acquisition of Johan Santana. Barring unforeseeable problems with Santana, the Mets come out winners here, adding one of the best pitchers in baseball at a reasonable extension and little cost in players. The most touted prospect acquired by the Minnesota Twins, speedy outfielder Carlos Gomez, is hyped more for his youth and potential than his current ability, but did put up a nice OBP at AAA in 2007. Pitcher Deolis Guerra is similarly an upside kind of guy, but has less demonstrated ability, having never pitched above A-ball. Kevin “Dolores” Mulvey is the most major-league ready of the players, but with a low strikeout rate, seems unlikely to end up more than a #4 starter. Philip Humber, once highly regarded, is now 25 and coming off an unremarkable first year at AAA; he has no immediate value and limited potential. The Twins ignored the certain quality of other reported offers and instead took a huge gamble on the upsides of Gomez and Guerra.

Coming soon: This Week Recent Weeks In Blog Traffic: Pre-Super Tuesday Edition!

2007 rooting hierarchy iv: so satisfied i’m on my way

March 29, 2007 at 11:54 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a Comment
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I am absolutely loving this new blogging method – I think I’m going to have to start doing more stuff in week-long series instead of pithy little entries. That’s right – Democratic Primary Candidate Countdown Week, The Physicality Scouting One-Year Blogfest, and someday, Music Evaluative Index Marathon. It almost makes me want to have more interests for giant blog series. I suppose I could also do week-long tributes to certain TV shows. Send more series ideas to:
Comments Section
c/o This Blog
Right Here, LJ
If we use your idea on the series of tubes, you’ll win a brief, passing mention! Now, on with the countdown.

15. Philadelphia Phillies The Phils took a significant fall from 2006. First and foremost, I think, is my unwillingness to forgive them for giving the Yankees OF Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle. Is it fair to put the blame on Philly for the Yanks murdering the Red Sox in that five-game sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s nonetheless there. And one when looks at Philly’s offseason moves – signing SP Adam Eaton and 3B Wes Helms to likely useless contracts – it doesn’t help matters. On the other hand, they did help with the White Sox’s inexplicable mission to get rid of SP Freddy Garcia, so here they are in the upper half.
14. Texas Rangers I don’t feel great about HR-prone SP Brandon McCarthy going to a HR-prone ballpark, but he was better than the minor leaguers sent to Chicago. That aside, GM Jon Daniels has yet to really make a name for himself. There’s still hope that a young guy (he’s not even 30) will be more statistically progressive than the average GM, but hope and ageism don’t justify a higher spot than this
13. New York Mets There was a time when the Mets were my favorite non-local club thanks in large part to my hatred of the Braves (and the awesomeness of Edgardo Alfonzo). That time has passed, but there’s still a lot to like about the Mets. Omar Minaya has performed well enough that maybe my defense of his Expos tenure was justified – give the man the resources to sign big names, and he’ll pick the right ones. Sure, there are also horribly overrated players like RF Shawn Green and C Paul Lo Duca, but the Mets balance those out with the bargain of 2B Jose Valentin. The one systemic weakness I see is Minaya’s evaluation of relief pitching, but that’s not reason to bump them any further down.
12. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has a way of getting greatness for nothing – most notably Rule 5 draftee SP Johan Santana and the trade of C AJ Pierzynski for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano. For these two transactions alone, he deserves a lot of credit. Of course, those are balanced by such signings as 2006’s 3B Tony Batista, who had no business on a major-league club. Still, it’s hard to argue with the Twins’ supply of quality young players. A sentimental factor here: C Joe Mauer’s presence on my fantasy team makes me like him just a bit more than his awesomeness merits.
11. Washington Nationals Okay, this ranking is pretty much insane. GM Jim Bowden is a “tools”-obsessed guy who has benefited largely from ripping off inferior GMs. So my rooting for the Nats really comes down to one thing: manager Manny Acta is willing to use evidence to guide his decisions. This shouldn’t be a distinguishing factor, but a manager coming out and basically citing run expectancies and properly devaluing the stolen base is almost unprecedented. Of course, the team has miserable starting pitching and isn’t going to win 80 games, but I still deign Acta worthy of my praise.
10. St. Louis Cardinals The defending world champions made some bad decisions this winter – bringing back Mark Mulder? Seriously? – but GM Walt Jocketty also moved to lock up SP Chris Carpenter through 2012, which means he’ll join 1B Albert Pujols as the core of the team for years to come. That alone gives the club probably 60 wins to build on, so as long as they keep finding undervalued talent like Adam Kennedy to fill out the roster and minimize the Mulder-type signings, the Cards should continue to be a .500 club even if they don’t make great moves.

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