it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
old habits die hard
July 5, 2009 at 3:16 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Chris Davis, Indians, Jesus Colome, John Meloan, Nationals, notspects, Nyjer Morgan, Pirates, Rangers, Ryan Langerhans, Winston Abreu, you're still breaking my heart Neal
Because roster news is still coming in as I write this, expect All-Star thoughts sometime during the week or in next weekend’s entry.
Completely Acceptable Move of the Week: Since more than 30% of my regular readership hails from Cleveland, I feel I should address this week’s swap of minor league pitchers Winston Abreu and John Meloan. Meloan was sent to Tampa Bay (with cash considerations) for the waived Abreu. While he’s not yet 25, Meloan’s potential seems limited to me; as a starter, he struggled with his control, but he has not shown the dominance one would want at AAA from a reliever. Abreu is something of a mirror image: at 32, his future is somewhat limited and swift decline could always lurk right around the corner. Yet in recent years, his work at AAA in several organizations has been impressive, with more than a strikeout an inning and decent control since 2005. The one concern seems to be the long ball, which plagued him in his longest stint in the big leagues. Still, for a team like the Indians, I think his upside is worth the solid-but-unspectacular potential of Meloan; while he won’t save the relief corps this year, Cleveland could have a nice weapon in 2010, whether to set up or trade.
Overrated and Underrated Players of the Week: A lot has been made of the Nyjer Morgan trade, including analysis that is, at best, irrelevant, and possibly dead wrong. Morgan’s defense is his only asset; whether it’s awesome or slightly above average is a matter of one’s source. FanGraphs provides UZR numbers that make him look exceptional, but THT’s numbers from Baseball Info Solutions give a picture of a below-average left fielder with one slightly positive year in center. Because defensive metrics are still far from universal, we must evaluate Morgan’s value as a hitter, and that’s where the Nationals’ error (aside from surrendering Joel Hanrahan for the low-upside Sean Burnett) becomes clear. The ever-popular blind comparison:
Player A: .283/.348/.371 in major league career; .300/.357/.366, 70 SB in 126 games at AAA
Player B: .235/.337/.382 in major league career; .293/.387/.486, 37 HR in 313 games at AAA
Both of these players are 29 with strong defensive reputations but more uncertain statistics. Player A is Morgan, for whom the Nationals downgraded their bullpen and gave up the potential of Lastings Milledge; Player B is the severely underrated Ryan Langerhans, who was traded from Washington for the limited talents of Mike Morse. At best, these are two players of comparable value, and there is a very strong case to be made that Langerhans’ superior numbers in the minors mean he should be projected as a far better hitter. Morgan’s flashy speed, however, created the perception that he was a far more desirable commodity, and as such one-dimensional players can decline quickly, he could fall from his current peak value rapidly for a Nationals club that ought to be building for the future. Langerhans, on the other hand, already has three doubles and as many walks with his new club, and I will again praise Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik for the cheap acquisition.
Mistake of the Week: On the other end of the Morgan trade, the Pirates upgraded their bullpen and added a young outfielder who at least has a tiny chance of being with Pittsburgh’s next contending team. They absolutely come out ahead in the deal, but GM Neal Huntington still continued to destroy my faith in him this week. OF/1B Eric Hinske hasn’t hit for much power this year, but he has the best OBP of his career. Making just $1.5 million in 2009, he is a nice commodity who, if the Pirates insisted on trading him, could have brought in a small piece of Pittsburgh’s future. Instead, continuing with his tradition of seeking non-prospects, Huntington settled for Eric Fryer (23 years old and struggling to a .250/.333/.344 line at High-A) and Casey Erickson (two days younger than Fryer, he’s posted respectable numbers on the mound but never been above Single A). In acquiring these two non-prospects (or “notspects”) from the Yankees, the Pirates also agreed to pay $400,000 of Hinske’s remaining contract. Moves like this force me to reconsider my belief that the Pirates are moving towards a .500 season any time in the foreseeable future.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? The Texas Rangers have plenty of hitters, particularly in the outfield. Despite solid 2009 campaigns, David Murphy and Andruw Jones are still splitting playing time, and when Josh Hamilton returns, Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz will be competing for time as well. But with Hank Blalock seemingly entrenched as DH, there’s just no spot for these guys. After all, Blalock can’t possibly move to first base, where–
Oh. Well then. That changes everything. Someone’s just reminded me that 1B Chris Davis is not, in fact, repeating his 2008 campaign, wherein he slugged .549 and looked like a potential superstar for the Rangers. Rather, he has seen his production fall off a cliff; with a .201/.256/.417 line, he has the worst on-base percentage of any first baseman with more than 70 at bats. After striking out 88 times in 295 at bats last year, he’s racked up an MLB-leading 113 Ks in just 254 at bats this year; with just 17 walks, this is unacceptable. His failure is not a matter of bad luck, either: when he actually puts the ball in play, Davis is hitting a perfectly normal .286. In any other year, one could defend the Rangers for simply having nothing to lose in trying to build Davis’ confidence by standing behind him; for most other teams, one could claim that his 15 home runs would be too hard to replace. But for the 2009 Rangers, the AL West is winnable, and the club’s bench offers better options than Davis. If the team doesn’t make Blalock its full-time first baseman soon, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves if they come up a few games short of the Angels for a playoff berth.
Why Don’t You Still Have A Job? They say beggars can’t be choosers, but the Nationals seem to think they’re in the position to ditch perfectly adequate relievers. They designated Jesus Colome for assignment, and considering his most superficial stats (8.40 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) and the fact that the Nationals clearly undervalue him, I don’t see anyone bothering to pay much in trade. Yet in a season that clearly is heading nowhere, Washington is giving service time to the mildly intriguing young arm of Craig Stammen instead of sticking with Colome, whose ugly results are belied by his underlying numbers. His hit rate is up due to a .407 average on balls in play, and his 18.5% line drive rate is the lowest it has been in five years. He was better in June (two walks all month) than in May, and only allowed his first home run on Friday. His walk rate is far superior to that of teammates Julian Tavarez and Ron Villone’s, and as they youngest of the trio is the least likely to completely implode.
I have no idea what the Nationals expected from Colome; did they think Jesus would be their bullpen’s savior? He should have been seen as a decent depth option for a lousy team, and behind some unlucky breaks, that’s exactly what he has been. While he is certainly not a pitcher that a contending team should want, he’s far too respectable (with a 3.58 FIP) to be kicked off of the Washington Nationals.
today’s music ain’t got the same soul
May 3, 2009 at 9:50 pm | In Baseball, Today's Music Sucks | 5 CommentsTags: Cardinals, Dan Giese, Indians, Matt LaPorta, Mike MacDougal, Nationals, P.J. Walters, Royals, Yankees, Zack Greinke
Ever the dynamic, unpredictable person, I’ve incorporated a few of David’s suggested categories, added one of my own, and thrown together another couple pages of baseball insights. We’re surprisingly low on Red Sox-related things, but with upcoming series against my hometown Indians and the loathed Yankees and Rays, I’m sure to make up for that next week.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: What the hell is this?
Just because you occasionally hit notes that make you sound like Bono doesn’t mean you should subject the world to your work*. Whoever thought it would be a good idea to play this before games at Progressive Field needs to be fired. Was ownership too cheap to spring for the rights to “Cleveland Rocks?” What exactly is the story here? (And lest anyone say I’m just negative about all team-specific music that isn’t entrenched in baseball history, new songs CAN be done effectively when assigned to people who have musical experience beyond Guitar Hero. Case in point:)
I mean, come on. “It’s Tribe Time Now?”
Underrated Addition: It was just last week that I pilloried the Nationals for demoting a reliever with lousy 2009 results, but they seem to have realized where their standards need to be. Case in point: Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal, better known as Mike. MacDougal was released by the White Sox after starting 2009 with a line that makes Javier Lopez look effective, but with no hope of contending and a bullpen already dealing with injury issues, Washington was wise to take a chance on him. To say he has control issues is like saying Oedipus had some family problems, but in the last four MLB seasons, MacDougal has allowed just 4 home runs in 92 innings. For a team like Washington, he should quickly become a bullpen fixture; the worst-case scenario I see is cheap innings from the pen, with the upside that a pitching-starved team could make trade inquiries once MacDougal re-establishes himself.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? As seems to be a new trend, this section of my posts is again a rare look at an unliked NL club. This week’s unvaluable player is Cardinals reliever/spot starter P.J. Walters, who has as many innings on the young season as closer Ryan Franklin, and more than several potentially decent setup men. That total is, of course, skewed by the one start he made, a surprisingly solid four-inning effort in Chicago. In the six-plus innings since, however, he has descended to abominable levels of futility on the mound, with four walks and three home runs to just three strikeouts (and, for those who give weight to defense-dependent stats, a whopping nine hits). Walters has remained in St. Louis’s bullpen while better arms toil at AAA, including those of Brad Thompson and Jess Todd. While he’s only 24, Walters’ minor league numbers give little reason to think he’s about to turn a corner – while he posted solid enough totals in 2007 (mostly in A ball), his 2008 was plagued by 22 home runs in 158 innings – not acceptable in the majors, and certainly not to AA and AAA competition. On top of that, his control eroded at AAA, and he surrendered 62 walks in 122 innings. Perhaps his success in the low minors (coming at a relatively old age) is reason to think he can be a useful piece in time, but there’s no excuse for the Cardinals keeping him in the bigs; even if they lack confidence in their internal options, they’d be better off trying to resurrect the career of Mike Timlin than trusting Walters with meaningful innings.
Perfect Hindsight: On April 4, the Yankees designated pitcher Dan Giese for assignment. It was a questionable move, considering their lack of a long man and the unproven nature of some of the arms they were carrying, but not one that figured to be a moment of regret. Not even a month later, I have to believe that New York GM Brian Cashman thinks back wistfully to spring training. While Giese has had some problems in his time with the A’s, his track record is solid enough (including a frustratingly respectable 2008), and he has still outpitched those who took his job as the final man in the Yankees’ pen. Now, as they prepare for the Red Sox’ first visit to their new stadium, the Yankees are forced to call up pitchers like Anthony Claggett (who has yet to establish himself at the upper levels of the minors, and was responsible for much of the Indians’ 14-run inning two weeks ago) to bridge the gap to underwhelming setup man Jonathan Albaladejo. Their offense, even sans A-Rod, is potent enough to be considered a playoff contender, but with a more reliable innings-eater available, they would be downright terrifying.
Shrewd Move of the Week (Or “Overdue and Obvious Call-Up of the Week”): The Indians finally picked the right outfielder to aggressively promote, sending down the disappointing Trevor Crowe for Matt LaPorta, whose torrid hitting at AAA seemed too valuable to be overlooked by a club that consistently fielded only two good outfielders. Though LaPorta struggled at AA last year after the trade that sent him to Cleveland for CC Sabathia, he should quickly learn to outhit Crowe, Ben Francisco, and veteran David Dellucci. Considering the Tribe’s pitching troubles (and continued insistence on leaving Jeremy Sowers at AAA), an earlier call-up wouldn’t have helped them avoid falling into a deep hole in the standings, but finally shuffling the pieces (including the promotion of 2B Luis Valbuena) should at least give them the best major league lineup they can muster going forward in 2009. With so many teams ahead of them, and unable to string together consecutive wins, it’ll be incredibly tough for the Indians to get into the playoff hunt. But now, they’re finally using the right players to make that effort.
Player of the Week: I continue to doubt that the Royals can hang around at the top of the AL Central for the whole season, but that’s largely due to an underachieving offense – including a black hole at shortstop and the due-for-regression Alberto Callaspo and Willie Bloomquist. As far as the pitching goes, however, I’m increasingly impressed, and could see the Royals’ staff being one of the better in baseball. The highlight, as anyone following baseball this year knows, is Zack Greinke. Greinke finally wound up with a nonzero ERA this week, but his numbers are still staggering enough to merit every bit of praise he’s received – and this is no trifling praise, considering how much I try to avoid talking about players everyone else talks about. Having allowed a .286 average on balls in play, he isn’t having his stats inflated by the defense behind him. He has more strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (11.00) than any American League starter, and is 11th in walks per 9 (2.00). The worst one can say is that he’s been lucky not to give up a single home run, but even accounting for that, he posts an xFIP under 3.00. His team has won every game he’s started, two of which he also finished. Greinke has finally lived up to his stuff and become a true ace; considering that the well-documented issues he’s had have had nothing to do with his physical health, there may not be a more valuable pitching commodity in baseball.
* Yes, this admonishment does apply to Bono himself on occasion, though I’d like to hear U2 help Africa with “Hey Hey Hey, H.I.V./It’s AIDS Time Now.”
why don’t we ever believe ourselves?
April 26, 2009 at 11:08 pm | In Baseball | 3 CommentsTags: Braves, Brian Bannister, David Ross, Erik Bedard, Giants, Mariners, Nationals, Royals, Saul Rivera, Travis Ishikawa
We’re coming in close to the deadline here, but it has been a busy weekend – a little time at The Prog (special shout-out to Suege, whose disposable income is exceeded only by his generosity, or maybe vice-versa), a little spring cleaning, some family commitments, plus some four-hour games too riveting to allow multitasking. But if ever there were a time when I could blog intensely about baseball, it’s now, when the Red Sox are making like Adam Lambert and looking so far beyond the competition that… wait, an American Idol analogy? That’s the best I can do?
Clearly, writing everything but this intro drained me, and that’s even though I lack enough conviction in any of my reflections to make a prediction this week; I’m as worn down as the Yankees’ bullpen. Hey, that’s more like it…!
Underrated Cut (Or, “This Is As Pointless As Not Bothering To Pick Up The Hundred-Dollar Bill You Just Dropped In A Puddle”): Not surprisingly, the Washington Nationals aren’t the brightest team out there. In the case of reliever Saul Rivera, their bad luck saved them from their stupidity; after being optioned down, Rivera returned to Washington when fellow reliever Joe Beimel ended up on the disabled list. There’s no question that Rivera has had a terrible year – with two home runs and as many walks as strikeouts in under eight innings, he’s hurt the Nationals tremendously. But sending him to the minors was a premature move; after all, his problems have come in a very small sample size, and he plays for the Nationals. Rivera was a solid late-innings guy in the past two seasons, and while he is too old to turn into anything more than that, he has plenty of value to a franchise starved for pitching. Instead, the hapless club seems to prefer retreads like Kip Wells and Julian Tavarez, or respectively failed and iffy prospects like Mike Hinckley and Garrett Mock – whose walks and strikeouts are no better than Rivera’s this year. That the team immediately recalled Rivera, whose bad outcomes may stem largely from a .481 BABIP, after placing Beimel on the DL would seem to validate that there isn’t an injury issue at hand, and that they simply became impatient and thought Rivera wasn’t one of their seven best relievers. It’s very little wonder that they’re baseball’s losingest team right now, and I can only hope that a club like San Diego is inquiring about Rivera at a low price.
Underrated Addition (Or, “Incompetent People Haven’t Turned To A Choice This Obvious Since Donald Rumsfeld Was Secretary of Defense”): There weren’t many players changing teams this week, so I’ll highlight Brian Bannister’s return to the big-league club in Kansas City as a very good, if very overdue, move. While the Royals’ pitching has been more than a little surprising in its quality this year, there was no reason to keep Horacio Ramirez as a fifth starter when the 28-year-old Bannister was performing adequately at Triple-A Omaha. Bannister had significant home run problems last year, but his solid rookie year in 2007 gives me reason to think he can still be a nice back-of-the-rotation arm. At the very least, he’s a safer bet than the perpetually usefulness-challenged Ramirez – and in a division with so many contenders, even one win of improvement could make a difference if the Royals somehow keep getting by with such a weak offense. (For the record, I still scoff at their status as a trendy postseason dark horse, but with Zack Greinke getting help from Gil Meche and Kyle Davies [!] at the front of the rotation, it’s not as absurd a concept as it was a month ago.)
Why Do You Still Have A Job? (Or, “They Need This Guy Like Kat Dennings Needs A Tan”) The Javier Lopez Award for Excellence in Futility could very easily be called “Giant of the Week,” and I was sorely tempted to just give it to San Francisco GM Brian Sabean. But because monumentally bad ballplayers can quickly become non-issues, I’ll err in favor of spotlighting one of several deserving “baseball players:” first baseman Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa played seven seasons in the Giants’ farm system, and rarely showed much reason to think of him as a top prospect. It’s not that he has no record of hitting (2008 was a career year), but that his defensive deficiencies limit him to playing first (if that; at this point, he may not cut it even there). As a first baseman, reasonable hitting expectations from his minor league record would make him an awful starter… and his 2009 year has been terrible beyond any expectations. In 42 at-bats, he has managed just nine hits – and only two that weren’t singles. His on-base percentage is the worst among MLB first basemen with over 5 at-bats, and his slugging percentage is in the bottom five. With his thirteen strikeouts to one walk, his average on balls in play stands at a very reasonable .310, giving no reason to believe this dreadful start is just bad luck. With no homers and so little plate discipline, there’s no explanation other than “he’s playing horribly,” and no excuse for the Giants not to simply sign a veteran until Ishikawa shows that he can come close to replacement level.
Question of the Week: Is Erik Bedard back? Yes. Bedard missed most of his first season in Seattle thanks to shoulder problems, but through four starts in 2009, he is every bit the ace for whom they believed they traded several very good young players. With more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and just more than a tenth as many walks, Bedard has a perfectly sustainable BABIP of .294. The only way in which he has been lucky is the low rate of home runs on fly balls, but even with a normalized rate, Bedard should complement Felix Hernandez very well at the front of the rotation. There is, of course, the caveat of small sample size, but Bedard’s dominance is as valid as anything one can conclude in April. His value doesn’t absolve former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi of a bad trade – the thirty-year-old is heading into free agency, and came at far too high a cost of younger, cost-controlled talent – but gives new GM Jack Zduriencik an All-Star caliber arm to keep or deal as he sees fit.
Player of the Week (Or, “I Haven’t Seen Anything This Hard-Hitting Since That CNN Reporter Showed How Clueless Those Tea Partiers Were”): It should be noted that this award is by no means an objective reflection on who has had the best week, but rather a spotlight on someone who has made a large impression this week. Objective measures of hot weeks are the sort of unequivocal facts that have made me hesitant to blog about baseball, so while it’s hardly the best analytical method, it’s nice to just take a player who may not be getting his due and give him, in my tiny corner of cyberspace, that due.
Braves catcher David Ross was limited to eight at-bats with the Red Sox last year, and because I felt he was shortchanged, I’m pleased to see him hitting this year – not to spite Boston, who are doing quite nicely with a resurgent Jason Varitek, but because he is too good a player to stay so unnoticed. While, like everything here, it comes with the caveat that it’s a very small sample, his Atlanta career has gone amazingly well so far. In just eighteen at-bats, he has four extra-base hits, including two homers, and has walked six times to just four strikeouts. There’s no way he continues his .417 BABIP and posts a full-season OPS well over 1.000, but with Brian McCann on the DL, Ross may finally get the playing time to establish himself as one of baseball’s best backup backstops.
you’ve got to pick up the pieces, come on, sort the trash
February 26, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Nationals
Because Adam Dunn’s contract – and more specifically, his presence on a team with a very good first baseman and no shortage of outfielders – stands in stark contrast to what I believe is a general trend in the right direction for Nationals Jim Bowden, it was hard for me to find the right place to fit this instant classic from U.S.S. Mariner’s Dave Cameron: “This is a classic Jim Bowden move – acquire a former top prospect that he’s already acquired previously, especially if he doesn’t really have room for them on his roster. If Bowden was a general contractor, he’d build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof.” I’m not sure Bowden is that awful anymore, but I appreciate few things more than a snarky simile.
8. Washington Nationals (77.68% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 9
Added: 1B/OF Adam Dunn; SPs Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, and Gustavo Chacin; LF Josh Willingham; CF Corey Patterson; RPs Wilfredo Ledezma, Josh Towers, Jorge Sosa, Terrell Young, and Gary Glover; Cs Javier Valentin and Gustavo Molina; IFs Freddie Bynum and Alex Cintron; 3B Jose Castillo
Lost: RPs Chad Cordero, Brian Sanches, and Charlie Manning; SPs Odalis Perez and Tim Redding; 2B Emilio Bonifacio; 1B Aaron Boone
Strengths: Relative to the whole picture – a franchise that exemplifies habitual haplessness and isn’t likely to show drastic improvement anytime soon – the Nationals have a pretty decent lineup. Dunn and (possibly outgoing) 1B Nick Johnson are great bets to be above average hitters at their positions, and 2B Ronnie Belliard’s strong 2008 makes him, at worst, an interesting gamble for 2009 – particularly since he posted increases in both walk and home run rates. In 3B Ryan Zimmerman and RF Elijah Dukes, both 24, the team has a pair of solid defenders with significant power at the plate. Dukes in particular seems poised to explode into superstardom if he can keep his temper in check; while Zimmerman coasts on a breakout 2006 while lacking much minor league experience, ex-Devil Ray Dukes had shown his power, patience, and speed in the minors for years before his impressive half-season in Washington last year.
While CF Lastings Milledge has not yet posted a noteworthy major-league season and isn’t a strong enough defender to play center field long-term, his potential is too great to not mention, considering that he’s not yet 24.
The team also has depth, if not youth, on its bench. Dunn’s signing, questionable though it was, has created a situation from which the team could make multiple trades. Assuming Dunn starts the season in left field, the team would have five outfielders for two bench spots. The Nationals might be able to find some pitching help or at least prospects if they decided to deal Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns (whose horrible offensive 2008 doesn’t erase his defensive value), Wily Mo Pena (still young at 27, he may not be a complete bust yet), spring training invitee Corey Patterson, or Willie Harris (coming off of a career year). If the team moves Nick Johnson to shift Dunn to first base, it would likely end Dmitri Young’s time in the capital; while he cleared waivers in November, a healthy spring might make him interesting enough that the Nationals could pay most of his $5 million salary or take on a costly, underperforming pitcher (a Young return to Detroit in exchange for Dontrelle Willis?).
Weaknesses: The quantity-over-quality approach makes for interesting debate, at least, as far as hitters go. With the Nationals’ pitching staff, however… well, the quantity’s still there, but quality seems to have been completely neglected. Thanks to injuries, disappointments by former prospects, and Manny-wannabe Odalis Perez, I could see as many as six spots open on the pitching staff. The problem for me is that too many of the pitchers are has-beens trying to come back or low-ceiling guys past the age of likely breakout seasons; much like the team’s bench, some of these arms could be trade bait if they re-establish themselves, but they represent much bigger question marks and are supporting a far weaker core group. Even the team’s most likely back-of-the-bullpen group – Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, and Saul Rivera – look more like middle relief or fringe setup guys who would be far more impressive with a proven reliever or two at the back of the bullpen. I would, however, quite enjoy seeing Jordan Zimmermann win the fifth starter’s role and join 3B Ryan Zimmerman on the big club; his solid work at AA makes it a possibility out of spring, and only starting his third pro season at 22, he seems a fair bet to make it to Washington eventually.
I remain a skeptic of SS Cristian Guzman’s rebirth in 2007, and his high BABIPs in the past two years give one good reason to raise an eyebrow. That uncertainty at the plate combined with some spotty defense makes shortstop a liability for the Nationals, and young backup Alberto Gonzalez isn’t a great bet to improve the position in either dimension.
Finally, one must note a few serious defensive holes on the team. Whether he plays first base of left field, Dunn’s glove will be a hole. I’m not as optimistic about Belliard’s glove as I am his bat, and Milledge’s below-average glove seems to be waiting to move to left field as soon as his bat can justify it.
My Stake: Despite Jim Bowden’s iffy (at best) track record, I’ve been impressed by his ability in recent years to find high-upside players, frequently at small cost. The team has a nice young core, and it’s always hard for me to dislike clubs that collect such players as Dukes and Olsen without giving up anything they’re likely to miss. That’s not to say that Bowden is without his glaring problems – I have no defense for the $16 million, two-year extension given to Guzman, whose history does not make him look likely to continue as a useful player. But his eye for talent seems praiseworthy at this point, even if it is more suited to be a scouting director than a GM; his recent failures are not of grossly misvaluing players, but lacking the ability (or perhaps, as it is still only February, merely the interest) to assemble a complete roster, rather than an unstructured collection of the best players he can get.
I loved the futility of the Expos, and while the franchise’s new home is slightly less fun (as is their logo, which looks more like delicious frosting and less like comical toothpaste), I can readily get behind a talented roster headed by a manager who isn’t afraid to look at things in new ways.
‘09 Predictions: Just because they’re moving in the right direction in a slow, potentially-easily-derailed way doesn’t mean they’re going to be good. I like their offseason moves quite a bit, however, and I’m willing to give them all of 75 wins in deference to their strong offseason, positional depth, and the All-Star upsides of several position players. I also anticipate that their depth will lead to at least a few trades between now and October, and while it might be better to strengthen the farm, Bowden might be fighting for his job and be more inclined to use the team’s spare parts to get an overpaid or underperforming impact player.
‘08 rooting hierarchy v: i am rotten to my core if they’re to be believed
March 28, 2008 at 11:19 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Angels, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers
The rooting hierarchy hasn’t clustered with any real themes until tonight: guilty pleasure teams! Also: I’m inordinately pleased that I got to use a Garbage lyric for a title.
12. Washington Nationals 63.45% unweighted; 65.41% weighted (60/72.73/57.14)
Last year: #11. 73-89, 4th in NL East
In 2008: The Nationals don’t do much right, but are in an interesting situation: they’re so far from a serious contender that short contracts to aging veterans don’t do much damage. Case in point: the fact that the team’s catching situation was ugly enough that Paul Lo Duca is an acceptable one-year stopgap. The signing of Aaron Boone and the team’s dearth of prospects is more representative of the fact that GM Jim Bowden has a long way to go before he has a decent franchise, while the release of SP John Patterson is a sad reminder that even though the club picked up young outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes at very low costs, the Nats aren’t particularly competent. Still, by a combination of being pathetic and having a sabermetrics-friendly manager in Manny Acta, the Nationals defy their front office’s merits and earn a soft spot in my heart.
Prediction: 71-90; 5th in NL East
11. Florida Marlins 64.14% unweighted; 67.61% weighted (65/72.73/57.14)
Last year: #6. 71-91, 5th in NL East
In 2008: The Marlins got some nice players in the Miguel Cabrera trade (though it could be argued that they would have gotten more by trading Dontrelle Willis separately), but it’s apparent that unless ownership changes hands, they need to get used to trading away their stars. With a shoestring budget, the team has to play still-developing prospects and hope that in a couple of years, everything breaks right during the same season. To a casual baseball fan living in Miami, this state of affairs would be understandably miserable. To a devoted lover of the game, it’s actually an entertaining cycle to watch, and it’s hard to root against a team in such difficult circumstances.
Prediction: 73-89; 4th in NL East
10. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 70.34% unweighted; 62.85% weighted (46.67/70/75)
Last year: #22. 94-68, 1st in AL West, lost ALDS
In 2008: I used to think that Bill Stoneman was a good GM and his staff just fell short at player evaluation sometimes. But the new GM, former Director of Player Development Tony Reagins, seems to have a far better handle on things than his predecessor. The team has been fairly quiet, but Reagins showed he wasn’t afraid to shake things up when he traded popular shortstop Orlando Cabrera for starting pitcher Jon Garland. Garland’s acquisition was a smart move at the time, but looks even bigger now that Kelvim Escobar’s shoulder problems are flaring up. The team has enough farm depth that, should Escobar miss the season, they may be able to find another arm. Even if they can’t, they’ve got a better-than-good chance at making the postseason.
The signing of Torii Hunter is an interesting point of debate, but while everyone expected him to be overpaid, he received a fairly reasonable deal given the market (certainly not bad compared to other big center fielder contracts) and helped the team address an easily improved area (Reagins has thus far failed to complete the process, however; he has kept surplus outfielders Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera). With that in mind, I like what I’ve seen from Reagins enough that I’m finally willing to give up the antipathy I’ve held for years based on the team’s love of small ball and rivalry with the A’s.
Prediction: 90-72; 1st in AL West, lose ALDS
9. Texas Rangers 71.03% unweighted; 65.05% weighted (53.33/70/75)
Last year: #14. 75-87, 4th in AL West
In 2008: When I think of divisions with a lot of likable teams, the AL West doesn’t usually spring to mind. But if I’ve come to like the Angels as much as I have, the Rangers have to rank even higher. While they certainly have pitching problems, their offseason was rather productive (aside from the inexplicable signing of 1B Ben Broussard). They added SPs John Patterson and Jason Jennings, each recovering from elbow surgery, for fairly inexpensive rotation help, and extended reliever Joaquin Benoit’s contract; hours ago, they traded a walk-prone A-ball pitcher for reliever Dustin Nippert. An overhaul of the outfield included signing Milton Bradley (like the Cubs and Kosuke Fukudome, this hurt me as a Padres fan) and trading a pair of expendable, unremarkable pitchers to the Reds for 27-year-old CF Josh Hamilton, who should be one of the AL’s best center fielders if he stays healthy. The team needs a lot more pitching to even contend for a wildcard, but GM Jon Daniels is starting to live up to his potential.
Prediction: 78-84; 4th in AL West
8. Atlanta Braves 75.86% unweighted; 84.58% weighted (100/72.73/71.43)
Last year: #17. 84-78, 3rd in NL East
In 2008: The Braves’ offseason was much more inconsistent than most of these upper half teams’; Atlanta got a nice return when trading overpaid, free-agent-at-the-end-of-the-season Edgar Renteria, and avoided any particularly foolish signings. On the other hand, they traded away a pair of solid major leaguers (Willy Aybar, Joey Devine) and got essentially nothing (for Devine, they added replacement-level CF Mark Kotsay, who should not be on a contending team) in return. Still, I’ve spent too long forgiving the 1995 team and getting past the “dynasty” hype to let a few missteps stop me from liking a franchise that has lost 75 games only twice since 1991; I would love to see them make a return to the postseason. From the “don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone” category, my fondness for the Braves is growing as TBS’ coverage of the team wanes; I have a surprising amount of memories related to the national TV coverage of a team I wasn’t rooting for.
Prediction: 88-74; 2nd in NL East, lose NLDS
2007 rooting hierarchy iv: so satisfied i’m on my way
March 29, 2007 at 11:54 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a CommentTags: Cardinals, Manny Acta, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Twins
I am absolutely loving this new blogging method – I think I’m going to have to start doing more stuff in week-long series instead of pithy little entries. That’s right – Democratic Primary Candidate Countdown Week, The Physicality Scouting One-Year Blogfest, and someday, Music Evaluative Index Marathon. It almost makes me want to have more interests for giant blog series. I suppose I could also do week-long tributes to certain TV shows. Send more series ideas to:
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If we use your idea on the series of tubes, you’ll win a brief, passing mention! Now, on with the countdown.
15. Philadelphia Phillies The Phils took a significant fall from 2006. First and foremost, I think, is my unwillingness to forgive them for giving the Yankees OF Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle. Is it fair to put the blame on Philly for the Yanks murdering the Red Sox in that five-game sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s nonetheless there. And one when looks at Philly’s offseason moves – signing SP Adam Eaton and 3B Wes Helms to likely useless contracts – it doesn’t help matters. On the other hand, they did help with the White Sox’s inexplicable mission to get rid of SP Freddy Garcia, so here they are in the upper half.
14. Texas Rangers I don’t feel great about HR-prone SP Brandon McCarthy going to a HR-prone ballpark, but he was better than the minor leaguers sent to Chicago. That aside, GM Jon Daniels has yet to really make a name for himself. There’s still hope that a young guy (he’s not even 30) will be more statistically progressive than the average GM, but hope and ageism don’t justify a higher spot than this
13. New York Mets There was a time when the Mets were my favorite non-local club thanks in large part to my hatred of the Braves (and the awesomeness of Edgardo Alfonzo). That time has passed, but there’s still a lot to like about the Mets. Omar Minaya has performed well enough that maybe my defense of his Expos tenure was justified – give the man the resources to sign big names, and he’ll pick the right ones. Sure, there are also horribly overrated players like RF Shawn Green and C Paul Lo Duca, but the Mets balance those out with the bargain of 2B Jose Valentin. The one systemic weakness I see is Minaya’s evaluation of relief pitching, but that’s not reason to bump them any further down.
12. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has a way of getting greatness for nothing – most notably Rule 5 draftee SP Johan Santana and the trade of C AJ Pierzynski for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano. For these two transactions alone, he deserves a lot of credit. Of course, those are balanced by such signings as 2006’s 3B Tony Batista, who had no business on a major-league club. Still, it’s hard to argue with the Twins’ supply of quality young players. A sentimental factor here: C Joe Mauer’s presence on my fantasy team makes me like him just a bit more than his awesomeness merits.
11. Washington Nationals Okay, this ranking is pretty much insane. GM Jim Bowden is a “tools”-obsessed guy who has benefited largely from ripping off inferior GMs. So my rooting for the Nats really comes down to one thing: manager Manny Acta is willing to use evidence to guide his decisions. This shouldn’t be a distinguishing factor, but a manager coming out and basically citing run expectancies and properly devaluing the stolen base is almost unprecedented. Of course, the team has miserable starting pitching and isn’t going to win 80 games, but I still deign Acta worthy of my praise.
10. St. Louis Cardinals The defending world champions made some bad decisions this winter – bringing back Mark Mulder? Seriously? – but GM Walt Jocketty also moved to lock up SP Chris Carpenter through 2012, which means he’ll join 1B Albert Pujols as the core of the team for years to come. That alone gives the club probably 60 wins to build on, so as long as they keep finding undervalued talent like Adam Kennedy to fill out the roster and minimize the Mulder-type signings, the Cards should continue to be a .500 club even if they don’t make great moves.
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