it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
bust a move
July 24, 2009 at 8:37 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: A's, Adam LaRoche, Brett Wallace, Brewers, Cardinals, Chris Duncan, Cla Meredith, Diamondbacks, Felipe Lopez, Indians, Julio Lugo, Mark Kotsay, Matt Holliday, Orioles, Oscar Salazar, Padres, Pirates, Rafael Betancourt, Red Sox, Rockies
Because trades are starting to come steadily, I’m abandoning my “Sunday roundup” format for the next week. There’s no real reason I can’t give some succinct transaction reviews during the week, particularly since the trade deadline falls on a Friday and I’ll likely have waning enthusiasm two days later for most of the news.
Pujols is no longer alone: The Cardinals, realizing that their offense is basically Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, wisely pursued the best outfielder presumed to be on the trade market in Oakland’s Matt Holliday. Holliday’s numbers have slipped noticably since leaving Colorado, but he’ll still bring more to the plate than St. Louis’ alternatives. The question, however, is whether it was worth it – Holliday will be a free agent after the season, and the prospect cost looks rather steep for a few months of a non-elite player.3B Brett Wallace seems overhyped for someone with only a small stint of dominant hitting at AA and not much of a defensive reputation, but he’s not yet 23 and showed a lot of offensive potential in his college career at Arizona State. Starter Clay Mortensen looks like pitching depth at best, but again, youth mitigates things; at 24, further improvement, while not guaranteed, is far from impossible. The rawest talent the A’s received was in 21-year-old outfielder Shane Peterson, who looks like the sort of player the A’s might have drafted with their second compensation pick had they lost Holliday in free agency.
With that, and Wallace’s upside, taken into consideration, it’s a solid haul for Oakland; while Wallace could very conceivably make the Cardinals look back in regret, it’s hard to fault them for giving up the two replaceable minor leaguers with the NL Central title looking very attainable. Just how great a cost such a victory would come at is a matter of one’s faith in Wallace turning into an impact player.
Red Sox get better for free: Julio Lugo should not have been designated for assignment, but he was; by this week, he had to be considered a sunk cost for the Red Sox, and managing to turn him into anything before he cleared waivers would be a nice move. Theo Epstein did a little better than “anything,” acquiring from the Cardinals 1B/OF Chris Duncan. While Duncan’s defense and health are huge liabilities, he is only 28 and brings a little pop and the ability to take a walk. Perhaps most importantly, he also gave Boston – dealing with an injured Jeff Bailey and underachieving Chris Carter and Paul McAnulty – the organizational depth to finally cut ties with the utterly futile use of a roster spot that is Mark Kotsay.
Kotsay might not have been replaced on the major league roster, however, had the Sox not also acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Pirates. LaRoche is a platoon player who should only start against right-handed pitchers, but he allows Kevin Youkilis to shift to third and spell the quickly-aged Mike Lowell. More importantly, he has eliminated Boston’s most glaring weakness (in specifically Kotsay and in general lack of someone to play over Lowell) at a minimal cost: the club is taking on just $3 million in payroll, and gave Pittsburgh nothing more than organizational filler in Argenis Diaz (a no-hit shortstop who was cluttering the 40-man roster) and Hunter Strickland (who, while young, neither strikes guys out nor keeps the ball in the park). While Boston could make themselves the divisional favorite by adding an impact player before next Friday, they have added the only thing they absolutely needed in LaRoche.
Indians save some money: Okay, that was harsh. Rafael Betancourt’s 2010 option for over $5 million wasn’t going to be picked up by a team that has quit pretending to care about spending money on players, and draft compensation for a Type B free agent would hinge upon them actually offering arbitration to Betancourt, which is hardly a given. Considering that, sending Betancourt to the Rockies for Connor Graham isn’t the worst thing Cleveland could have done; Graham has some chance of being a useful major leaguer in his future. That’s about all I can say, though; while he can certainly strike guys out, he’s had control problems in A-ball, and his main asset – home run prevention – looks like more luck than ground ball tendencies. The one thing that could turn things around would be a move to the bullpen, but we’ll have to see how the Indians handle their new prospect.
Padres raise eyebrows: While many comments online are highly critical of San Diego GM Kevin Towers, I liked the move that sent reliever Cla Meredith to Baltimore. Meredith, 26, is a useful middle reliever, but he’s headed to arbitration this winter and the Padres are trying to cut payroll. Their bounty, 31-year-old infielder Oscar Salazar, looks like a late bloomer; he made some noise with a big 2008 at AAA and then continued to be a surprise in the bigs. While he may be nothing more than a backup corner infielder, he has less service time than Meredith and thus is a cheaper option for a team on a budget. The most intriguing part, however, is that his arrival in San Diego could be seen as a precursor to the club finally trading 1B Adrian Gonzalez – reported to be unlikely – or 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Uninteresting player dealt to uninteresting team in uninteresting trade: That’s the best way to describe the snoozefest of a trade that sent 2B Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and I’ll understand if readers zone out for the rest of this post. Lopez seems, to me, like he’s been a Brewer before, but he has not; I assume that my mind just saw “middling infielder who isn’t great at anything but isn’t awful, either” and thought of Milwaukee. The Brewers sent Arizona a pair of similarly unremarkable prospects; Roque Mercedes looks like your run-of-the-mill minor-league reliever, while Cole Gillespie’s walk abilities and doubles power don’t make the 25-year-old look like a great bet in left field.
my favorite mistake
July 19, 2009 at 4:40 pm | In Baseball | 1 CommentTags: Julio Lugo, Kevin Towers, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox, Robert Andino
This week’s entry is shorter than what I’d gotten used to writing, but I think it’s fair to blame most of that on the light schedule this week due to the All-Star break. Perhaps I’ll get back to trying to blog mid-week about politics or top five lists to make up for my weekend laziness, or maybe this will be the week with a transaction big enough that it demands instant review, rather than delayed analysis.
Underrated Cut: Who else could it be, really? There’s no question that Julio Lugo’s defense had become a liability, but there was no reason the Red Sox couldn’t have waited to bring up Jed Lowrie until Lugo was traded or proved he couldn’t recover from injuries. His bat was still useful enough – he was 5th among AL shortstops in OBP, and his power wasn’t altogether unacceptable for the position – and yet Boston turned to a rookie who had already been optioned to AAA this year and designated Lugo for assignment. Besides his defensive shortcomings, critics point to Lugo’s exorbitant contract, but this was known to be a blunder by the Sox years ago and is already a sunk cost.
Lowrie may well be the better player in the near future, but he’s given absolutely no evidence of that this year – abysmal numbers at both AAA and MLB in an injury-plagued season – and his 2008 success basically amounted to a BABIP-aided August. While Lugo’s glove has certainly hurt the club, his bat has to be trusted over that of career minor leaguer Nick Green, whose success this year is as unsustainable as it is inexplicable (and who has struggled quite a bit since May). If Lowrie must be up already, the argument for Green has been his utility, but the Sox didn’t even tried Lugo at second base, where he could play between two plus defenders in Lowrie and Kevin Youkilis (nor is the club particularly open to playing Green away from short, even when the walking carcass who is Mark Kotsay continues to occupy a roster spot). I’m not as quick to blame the Red Sox’ mistake here on habitual racism as some, but whatever the cause, they seemed curiously intent upon throwing away a useful ballplayer in deference to two other imperfect options, only one of whom has upside.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? It’s obvious at this point that the Orioles aren’t going anywhere in 2009; they’re one of only four MLB clubs with more than 50 pythagorean losses, and their best starter has been finesse-pitching rookie Brad Bergesen. In short, there’s little purpose in reminding anyone that Baltimore is bad. Still, it’s rather remarkable how many chances they’ve given to SS Robert Andino to demonstrate that he’s as bad as his career numbers say, and just how conclusively he did so (if Lugo clears waivers, there’ll be a nice cheap option with something to prove in the AL East…). When given more playing time in June, he managed to get on base at an unbelievably bad .259 pace while hitting just one home run on the way to a .333 slugging percentage. Still, manager Dave Trembley actually praised his “contributions!” Andino’s minor league numbers give no indications that he can hit any better than this, and while he has modest defensive value, there’s certainly not enough there to make up for an OPS in the bottom 4% of MLB players with at least 80 at-bats. The only answer to my own question: Andino remains employed because he manages to make Cesar Izturis’ bat look good. And that is a notable accomplishment.
Shrewd Move of the Week: Had I done a weekly round-up last weekend, there’s no question that I would have torn into Padres GM Kevin Towers for the scant bounty he received for outfielder Scott Hairston. Just 29 and under team control for two more seasons, Hairston represented cheap power for a club that needed it. The two prospects San Diego acquired were… far less useful, to put it very gently; Craig Italiano is a low-minors guy with control issues, while Ryan Webb’s mediocre stats point to a career of trips up from AAA when the regular mop-up reliever is hurt. It was inexplicable until news came down that the Player To Be Named Later in the deal was pitcher Sean Gallagher. Suddenly, Towers’ reputation was salvaged: at just 23, Gallagher already looks like a decent option at the back end of a respectable rotation; for the 2009 Padres, he could practically be an ace. He’s still young enough to develop into a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy (again, by the standards of a better team than these Padres), and with just one year in the majors, he represents a cheap arm for a couple of seasons, at which point he could either help a contender or be dealt to continue a rebuilding process. What looked like another robbery by Billy Beane suddenly seems, at worst, a fair trade; considering Hairston’s age and San Diego’s last-place status this year, finding a pitcher like Gallagher could easily be argued an outright win for Kevin Towers.
it’s just bad news, bad news, bad news
May 24, 2009 at 7:44 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: Aaron Miles, Cubs, Jody Gerut, Jonny Gomes, Kevin Towers, Marlins, Padres, Reds, Ricky Nolasco, Tony Gwynn Jr.
This is an awfully pessimistic selection of news items in a week that saw the Red Sox finally move into first place, the Padres extend their winning streak to nine games (and still end up as far from a division lead as the Orioles are), and the Braves start to make some noise in the NL East. Still, it’s hard to avoid the fact that there have been some truly pointless moves made this week by executives who should know better.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: How much longer must Red Sox fans suffer through Dennis Eckersley? This is actually a case in favor of him sticking around at NESN; if he was just full of inappropriate slips of the tongue, I could enjoy him. Instead, his color commentary gives Joe Morgan a run for his poorly-earned money.
Much-needed Journalistic Smackdown of the Week: Joe Posnanski ridicules Steve Phillips and those who make up subjective criteria to insist great players aren’t that good.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? It’s hardly news, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be criticized: the Cubs should never, ever have given Aaron Miles a major-league deal, much less a two-year contract at almost five million dollars. Miles is a fringe bench player who, at 32, is coasting on a flukishly productive 2008 (a year in which he almost posted a league-average OPS). This year, he’s regressed to the worst offensive production in his career, reaching base at just a .253 clip. On top of that, his only extra-base hits are six doubles, putting his slugging percentage at a paltry .269 – third worst among NL second basemen with more than 10 at-bats. Even if we give him an extra double and four extra singles to bring his BABIP up to .300, his OPS stands at a nauseating .636. This isn’t bad luck, this isn’t a bad start – this is a bad baseball player. That Chicago is paying him like an above-average bench presence – let alone giving him 21 starts! – is an insult to the intelligence of Cubs fans.
Mistake of the Week: I love Kevin Towers, but… this has not been a good week for the Padres’ GM. His reported trade bounty for starter Jake Peavy was, at best, a fair return – which begs the question of why he’d bother to take it rather than hold onto his under-contract ace. Still, it was the sort of deal that would have only slightly disappointed me had Peavy not vetoed the trade. But one under-the-radar trade did occur that makes me wonder what Towers is thinking. Disclosure of possible compromise to objectivity: my fondness for outfielder Jody Gerut is biased by having met the man at a Fall League game. But while his offensive production this year is underwhelming, it’s also out of line with what he demonstrated last year with only a little BABIP luck. More importantly, he has brought tremendous defensive value and helped cover the spacious outfield at Petco Park. Scott Hairston deserves more playing time, but Chase Headley isn’t gonna be a defensive asset in the outfield, and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff has been a far greater offensive disappointment than Gerut.
Still, despite being the least of San Diego’s problems, Gerut’s hardly a guy who should be considered untouchable in trade talks. The real problem here is the return: outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr. is not the hitter his father was. He’s had a solid 2009 at AAA, but it’s his fourth year at the level, and he’s never demonstrated a consistent ability to get on base or hit for power. His moderate speed might make him a fun player to watch, but his most optimistic upside would seem to be a slightly slower Juan Pierre. Unless Towers is assembling young talent for a larger deal, my faith is considerably shaken.
Underrated Cut: Like the Padres, the Marlins are a generally smart ballclub. They undermined my faith in them this offseason, but there’s little reason to think they’re a bumbling group of incompetents. Yet that’s the only way one can really justify the demotion of starter Ricky Nolasco, who will reportedly make at least two starts at AAA before returning to Miami. On one hand, the Marlins don’t have much to lose; after a hot start, they’ve fallen into a pretty solid fourth place. On the other hand, a tiny dent in Ricky Nolasco’s service time isn’t worth putting the big-league team at a considerable disadvantage this early in the season. Nolasco’s ERA stands at an atrocious 9.07, but I simply don’t think he’s been terrible as much as bad and unlucky. His strikeout and walk rates are in line with those of useful pitchers, and his XFIP stands at an acceptable 4.32. The surge in line drives and dip in grounders are worrisome, but to me, it’s far too early in the year to conclude that those wouldn’t return to normal.
Perhaps Nolasco has lost his ability to command his stuff, but the bottom line is this: If I’m wrong, the Marlins would keep him around to continue giving up a few too many homers. If I’m right, they’re insulting a 26-year-old who was their best pitcher last year, hurting his confidence while giving him no reason to feel any loyalty to the team when he reaches free agency. And for what? An early look at the raw, erratic arm of Sean West? With Rick VandenHurk and Anibal Sanchez on the DL, there’s really no way anyone the Marlins promote will be as good as Nolasco. The six-year cycle has been broken; 2009 is not going to be a fun year for Marlins fans.
Underrated Addition: Not to end this on such a negative note, it’s worth noting that the wildcard-contending Reds finally did something about their thin outfield. After a quarter season of Darnell McDonald – an experiment whose failure should surprise no one – the team recalled Jonny Gomes, who declined sharply after a great rookie campaign in 2005, but remains young enough, at 28, to be a very good hitter. While he struck out quite a bit at AAA Louisville, he could add some power to the Reds’ bench, and at least be an upgrade from McDonald. He and Laynce Nix give Cincy what I believe is their best shot of winning this year, and that dark horse chance at a playoff berth gives me my only real interest in the NL Central.
here i go again
April 19, 2009 at 6:33 pm | In Baseball | 7 CommentsTags: David Robertson, Javier Lopez, Padres, Red Sox, Tim Wakefield, Travis Denker, Yankee Stadium, Yankees
It’s a bit late in the season to say I’m going to blog regularly about baseball, but small sample sizes and slumping Sox kept me from doing much sabermetric spreadsheeting until this week. I struggled to figure out a format worth my time, but considering my love for all things and people underrated, it seems fitting to at least start my posts by discussing players and moves that generally fly under the radar of most baseball publications.
Underrated Cut: The Yankees have shuffled several pitchers on and off their major league roster this week, but none have the talent of 24-year-old David Robertson. It has been said that Robertson “struggled” a bit last year, giving up 15 walks to go with 36 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings. The real culprit for his 5.34 ERA was his .338 average allowed on balls in play – something that says a lot more about dumb luck and the Yankees’ defense than about Robertson’s stuff. Robertson’s minor league track record is stunning – in 144 innings, he allowed just 1 home run. His walk rate is admittedly a problem, but with his strikeout abilities, there’s no reason he should be missing out on a bullpen spot while Jose Veras and Jonathan Albaladejo struggle. But after throwing two scoreless innings in Thursday’s loss to the Indians, Robertson was optioned right back to AAA, apparently punished for being the only Yankee able to get outs. I welcome New York’s loyalty to the wrong relievers, but I can neither explain it nor expect it to continue much longer.
Underrated Pickup: The Red Sox claimed 2B Travis Denker off waivers from the Padres. Denker’s stock has fallen sharply over the past few years, as he’s now with his fourth organization at just 23. His power has waned since hitting 21 homers in the South Atlantic League in 2005, and he is reputedly a defensive liability. But he is still young, and has shown enough patience and doubles power that he has to be viewed as possessing solid upside at the plate. He could outplay Sox emergency IF Gil Velazquez already, and is presumably only at AAA because the team wants him to receive regular at-bats. Boston found a cheap young hitter who should at least turn into a better reserve infielder than they’ve had in recent years, and it’s indefensible that NL clubs with open 40-man spots and weak second base situations (the Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros all fit the criteria, and it’s admittedly hard to see why the Padres decided they’d rather keep so many 5th outfielders on their 40-man) wouldn’t spare a few thousand on a player with Denker’s skills.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? I’m sure that should I continue weekly posting, I’ll disproportionately cover players on teams I like. Still, this is hopefully the last time I have to give the Red Sox a thumbs down as well as a thumbs up. There is no excuse for the continued presence of lefty reliever Javier Lopez. Once a hallmark of mediocrity that measured how much celebrity I ascribe to any baseball player, Lopez has devolved from the worst man in the Red Sox’ bullpen to… well, really the worst man in the Red Sox’ bullpen. He gave up four hits in his first inning of 2009, but then appeared to settle in for three games. In his last two outings, however, he has had absolutely nothing – retiring just two batters while allowing two hits and four walks. In those games, only 16 of his 36 pitches were strikes. Lopez has a knack for preventing home runs, but at this point, his only success is coming when hitters get themselves out. At 31, he’s unlikely to improve, and even if one would argue that the Red Sox should keep him around, there’s little chance he would be claimed on waivers if they tried to send him to the minors. Lopez simply isn’t worth a roster spot right now, much less on a competitive team in the AL East. The Red Sox stuck with Mike Timlin all of last season and their patience lost them the pennant; let’s hope Hunter Jones impresses enough to take Lopez’s job.
Question of the week: Are the Padres for real? I doubt it. I’m a longtime fan of Heath Bell, dating back to his time as a high-strikeout, low-walk guy whom the Mets just didn’t seem to like, but it’s tough to see the team’s new closer keeping his sub-.200 average on balls in play. Relievers Luke Gregerson and Duaner Sanchez have been similarly fortunate, and as today’s bullpen implosion illustrated, the team has very little relief talent beyond Bell and perhaps Cla Meredith. They certainly cannot continue their pace (through Saturday) of overachieving their run differential by what would mean 27 wins over a full season.
…However: there is a lot of talent on this Padres club, and no one outside of the bullpen looks to be massively overachieving. Counting on starters Shawn Hill and Chris Young behind Jake Peavy would be foolish, but there’s no reason to think either has to drop off from solid component stats. Similarly, it’s no certainty that the offense has to drop well off an 800-run pace – Scott Hairston and Henry Blanco aren’t going to continue posting OPSes above 1.100, but it’s just as unlikely that Brian Giles and Kevin Kouzmanoff will continue to be as lost at the plate as they have been (and should Kouzmanoff continue to struggle, Hairston could let LF Chase Headley move back to third).
In short: no, the Padres are not a 100-win team, no matter how well they’ve played to this point. Edwin Moreno and Luke Gregerson are not quality setup relievers, and it’s far too early in the year to conclude that Luis Rodriguez is a solid hitter. And yet they remain in a division that lacks a true superpower, particularly as the Dodgers have even more instances of BABIP-aided pitching and overachieving hitters. San Diego is hardly a strong bet to continue looking like a playoff club, but they have enough upside that I can no longer rule out a season over .500.
Bold Prediction: The new Yankee Stadium isn’t as much of a hitters’ park as it seems. Much has been made about how many balls jumped out of the park during its first series, and some of them were indeed wind-aided popups (and one was an umpire-aided fan interference, but for my blood pressure’s sake, we won’t go there). But the Yankees and Indians are both strong offensive clubs with more than a few shaky pitchers – Chien-Ming Wang has been unable to command his pitches all year; Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras have had walk problems recently and were hardly homer-proof in 2008; Damaso Marte struggled as much from solid contact as long fly balls; Fausto Carmona and Jensen Lewis have struggled with home run issues all year; Anthony Reyes has fought the long ball his entire career. In a season where the ball seems juiced, a handful of high-scoring games featuring a pair of teams who tend to play in high-scoring games is hardly solid proof that the Yankees are now playing in a bandbox.
Player of the Week: It’s very tempting to give this to Anthony Claggett for his pivotal role in the worst inning in Yankee history. But Yankee failure would mean a lot less with the Red Sox still struggling, and it’s hard to overlook the work of Tim Wakefield in turning Boston’s fates around. His complete-game effort on Wednesday started a winning streak that now stands at four games, and his 111-pitch effort gave a day off to an exhausted bullpen. While he lost a no-hit bid in the 8th inning, his dominant outing should silence, at least for a while, those critics who accentuate his bad outings rather than his solid results and the unique contract that makes him the most loyal team player in baseball.
looking for the next best thing
March 3, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Padres
3. San Diego Padres (98.43% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 3
Added: SPs Kevin Correia and Jae Kuk Ryu; RPs Chris Britton, Mark Worrell, Ivan Nova, and Oneli Perez; OFs Cliff Floyd and Emil Brown; 2B David Eckstein; IF/OF Chris Burke; Cs Henry Blanco and C Eliezer Alfonzo; SS Everth Cabrera
Lost: SS Khalil Greene; Cs Josh Bard, Michael Barrett, and Luke Carlin; OFs Paul McAnulty and Chip Ambres; RPs Trevor Hoffman, Bryan Corey, Clay Hensley, Kevin Cameron, and Charlie Haeger; SP Justin Germano and Shawn Estes
Strengths: The Padres are coming off their worst season since 1993, so it’s hard to get too optimistic about the club at this point. Still, any front office with Kevin Towers and Paul DePodesta is a decent bet to beat expectations in most years. The team has thus far retained its core from the last few years, including SP Jake Peavy, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and RF Brian Giles. The team’s outfield options are quite deep behind Giles and underrated CF Jody Gerut, with Scott Hairston apparently joining Cliff Floyd on the bench behind LF Chase Headley. A major question mark all winter has been whether the Padres will be forced to trade Peavy or Gonzalez due to budget concerns, but with a new ownership group on the way, the team would seem to have leverage back in any such negotiations.
Relative to a poor team overall, the Padres’ bullpen is still a strength. Joe Thatcher is too good a pitcher for his 2008 struggles to ruin his value, while Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, and a healthy Mike Adams should be a decent group in the late innings. Admittedly, the pen is still an arm away from being above-average, but it’s better than one would expect from a 90-loss club – and most of its members, including free agent addition Chris Britton, are younger than I would have guessed.
Weaknesses: The team has made some bizarre investments this winter – the combined $1.6 million to C Henry Blanco and 2B David Eckstein looks like little more than a way to save face on stolen bases and keep prospect Matt Antonelli’s service time down – and haven’t helped themselves much. SPs Jae Kuk Ryu and Kevin Correia look like cheap gambles who could eat some innings and, like Eckstein, delay some prospects from reaching the big leagues, but they don’t do much to help a rotation that amounts to “Peavy and pray.” If Chris Young stays healthy, he’d give the team a respectable number two, but he’s not likely to return to his All-Star form from 2007.
Blanco looks like a backup behind C Nick Hundley, who has shown some pop but weak ability to get on base. Along with catcher and second base, the team should have a third offensive black hole at shortstop, where the apparent starter is Luis Rodriguez, a 28-year-old with a .316 career on-base percentage and a .351 slugging percentage. Next to Rodriguez and Eckstein’s weak bats and unredeeming gloves, the unfulfilled potential of 27-year-old 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff will at least offer a refreshing bit of upside to go with the frustration. I have to think that a strong showing from Antonelli at AAA could push Eckstein back to short by midseason; at the very least, last year’s surprisingly unobjectionable 30-year-old rookie IF Edgar Gonzalez could find more playing time.
My Stake: A couple of seemingly pointless signings this winter did more to my faith in Kevin Towers than last year’s on-field underachieving, but Blanco and Eckstein are the only real mistakes I can see on the roster right now. San Diego added several pitchers with decent upside and minimal financial risk, the exact kind of moves that got Towers to the top of my GM rankings. With smartly seized players like Gonzalez and Bell, and low-risk success stories like Hairston (despite the apparent preference for Headley at this point, Hairston could easily be a starter, and was acquired for minimal cost) and Gerut, the Padres have to be considered one of the best-run low-budget teams in baseball, despite everything going wrong in 2008. I tend to love anything that’s greatly underrated, and Towers’ player acquisition strategy seems to target, almost exclusively, players who aren’t being used to the fullest extent of their abilities – often digging up existing favorites of mine in the process. With a charming ballpark – I could put it as high as third on my list – to complement their appeal to my left brain, they seem unlikely to go anywhere on this list as long as Towers is around, even if they struggle through a prolonged rebuilding on a shoestring budget.
‘09 Predictions: In the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, the problems with the Padres rotation could conceivably be covered up to the point of acceptable mediocrity. The offense has some pop, and young players like Kouzmanoff (27) and Headley (24) could emerge as larger factors than I’m expecting. Sadly, there’s little to indicate that 24-year-old SS Sean Kazmar will follow them, and the team’s middle infield will be a huge problem. In all honesty, my prediction of 74 wins is influenced by the importance of balancing out all team win totals so as to keep my predictions in the realm of possibility, but it’s well within the realm of possibility – I’d put the Padres at anywhere from 70 to 77 wins, depending greatly on how the ownership transfer takes place. If the team is forced to cut salary – or even if they just want to get younger – I’d greatly hope that it would start with Giles. The right fielder looks unlikely to justify his $9 million price tag but is regarded highly enough to bring back major-league talent, or at least prospects who are close to being ready, and is in a crowded outfield unlikely to miss him.
If that’s the extent of the team’s financial restructuring, I see a strong enough core to get back to .500 by 2010 if they can patch up a few holes – and knowing Towers, the team could still find cheap infield and catching help by Opening Day. Unless the financial situation is even more dire than has been reported, I’m just not sure that the Padres need to blow everything up and rebuild from scratch; in the perpetually weak NL West, one more starter, some smart waiver pickups, and a little luck could put them back into contention sooner than it may seem.
‘08 rooting hierarchy vii: good times never seemed so good
March 30, 2008 at 10:50 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Indians, Kevin Towers, Padres, Red Sox
Well, I’m now 0-1 in my era of rooting for the Braves. Go figure. But after some 6,000 words, the 2008 hierarchy is complete, and full schedules of games are not even a day away!
3. San Diego Padres 93.10% unweighted; 98.43% weighted (100/100/85.71)
Last year: #2. 89-74, 3rd in NL West (lost one-game playoff)
In 2008: Despite a few shortcomings this winter, Kevin Towers is clearly one of the best GMs in the game – possibly the best. The Padres are competitive in a tough division on a payroll consistently dwarfed by that of the Dodgers or Giants, and Towers’ ability to find the very best cheap, unwanted players is even better than Billy Beane’s. This winter, the team: picked up fly-ball-troubled P Enrique Gonzalez (who should benefit from Petco’s deep outfield) off waivers; acquired 25-year-old 1B/OF Justin Huber for a player to be named later; added two Rule 5 draftees (young players who cost more than a negligible marginal cash cost) to the team’s 2008 plans; signed the best second baseman on the free agent market; brought in OF Jody Gerut, whose defense is an asset and who can provide decent offense when healthy; and gave a small, reasonable incentive-filled contract to injured SP Mark Prior. On top of that, the club extended ace Jake Peavy’s contract at a very reasonable rate. The Padres’ mistakes this winter, other than those of omission (namely, the failure to land OF Kosuke Fukudome or keep Mike Cameron or Milton Bradley), can be rationalized as calculated risks (SP Randy Wolf’s incentive-laden deal; Jim Edmonds’ ability to help the outfield if healthy; 1B Tony Clark’s ability to hit righties).
Prediction: 88-74; 1st in NL West, lose NLCS
2. Boston Red Sox 97.93% unweighted; 97% weighted (100/93.33/100)
Last year: #1. 96-66, 1st in AL East, won World Series
In 2008: If not for the 2007 ALCS letting me see what would happen if push came to shove, we’d have a tie for first place. As it is, the Sox fall to a very close second, touting an unmatched combination of likable veterans, dynamic young players, and a general manager who was part of my favorite Neil Young cover and campaigned for John Kerry. I wish I could expect them to easily defeat the Yankees – which I have called for the ALCS – but I simply can’t be that liberal and optimistic with my predictions. Still, while it may not be the most expected, empirically valid prediction, there are plenty of reasons the Yankees could fall to second in the AL East (I’ve already briefly detailed their weaknesses/risks). While the Sox admittedly have veterans about whom to worry, Jason Varitek has been in a gradual slide, there are similarly low expectations for J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell’s regression is already accounted for, and I view more than 80 innings from Curt Schilling as a bonus. If Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are the stars that most of Red Sox Nation believes them to be, and Josh Beckett stays fairly healthy, a repeat of 2007 is possible.
Prediction: 91-71; 2nd in AL East, win World Series
1. Cleveland Indians 98.62% unweighted; 98% weighted (100/95.55/100)
Last year: #3. 96-66, 1st in AL Central, lost ALCS
In 2008: I’d like to close the rooting hierarchy by singing the praises of the Cleveland front office… but after this winter, I just can’t do it. The Indians are inarguably a good club with plenty of young talent, and continue to produce All-Star caliber players. But the offseason moves were largely mind-boggling. Reliever Aaron Fultz had his option picked up, only to be released after nothing worse than a bad spring; the team brought in reliever Masahide Kobayashi, rather than trusting a pitcher in the farm system or a free agent; OF Brian Barton was left unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft; and IF Jamey Carroll, who slugged just .300 while playing for the Rockies in 2007, was acquired in a trade. On top of that, the development of 3B Andy Marte remains a concern, and “gets it done…with an ERA over 5.00″ Joe Borowski remains the closer. However, the Tribe still has a very talented young core, with plenty of pitchers to help the bullpen and enough position players that a breakthrough season could boost them into the playoffs. The disappointment, then, is only that they have thus far failed to make the sort of move that could put them over the top after their near-miss in last year’s ALCS. The Indians make enough questionable decisions that an objective evaluation could not place them at #1, but my native team is still shrewd enough that I have no cognitive dissonance as I root for them to give me closure on my World Series-disappointment-filled childhood.
Prediction: 89-73; 2nd in AL Central
‘07 spaces: a few days down
December 22, 2007 at 8:37 pm | In Space Awards | Leave a CommentTags: Craig Ferguson, John Edwards, Kevin Rudd, Kevin Towers, Mandy Moore, Padres, thick lustrous hair
2007 Space Awards ~ People of The Year: Part IV
10. Kevin Rudd: The first official act by Australia’s new Prime Minister was the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, and came out very strongly in his quest to end Japanese whale hunts. Perhaps less meaningful in the grand scheme of things, but still fun: he is the Best Employer of Peter Garrett Since Midnight Oil Disbanded (The political band never really caught on in the US, outside of “Beds Are Burning,” but its lead singer is now Australia’s Minister for the Environment, Heritage, and the Arts).
9. Craig Ferguson: The events of the past week have me questioning how tolerant I should be of the Spears family, but I see Ferguson’s serious monologue last spring as less of a defense of Britney and more of an offensive strike against a tabloid media that does not merely sensationalize and lower our culture, but seems to go so far as revelling in watching disturbed stars suffer serious breakdowns. In the Best Arbitrary Line-Drawing of the year, Ferguson noted that humor should generally be used to mock those in power, rather than kicking those already down. Whether or not one agrees with him regarding Spears, his frank discussion of his own past was still a rather brave, classy moment that seems too rare in our popular culture.
8. Mandy Moore: The year’s Best Musical Shock was the one-time pop star who collaborated with the likes of Rachael Yamagata and sang a version of “Umbrella” that actually made me forget how bad Rihanna’s original is. It is both appalling and remarkable that in a musical mainstream seemingly dominated by whining, melodramatic men, Moore’s poignant and mature lyricism, with the genuine emotionality and humanity lacking in myriad cookie-cutter bands, was largely overlooked.
7. John Edwards: While his campaign has inexplicably faltered – perhaps damned from the start as a white male running against Obama and Clinton – I refuse to give up hope for the most qualified and principled of the viable candidates. While I’m used to the idea of rooting for the least objectionable politician, that Edwards has a legitimate longshot of a chance at coming back is something of a blessing (I am aware of a certain National Enquirer article currently causing some doubt, but refuse to take it seriously or give it more than a passing mention unless given good reason to do so). He is also the Best Candidate for Voters With Thick, Lustrous Hair, which is just an extra reason for me to like him.
6. Kevin Towers: Not only is the general manager of the Padres my Best Legible Autograph Signer (perhaps because, in such an unheralded position, he has not suffered signature fatigue), but he may also be the most shrewd GM in the game. As well as his knack for assembling bargain bullpens, Towers recently helped the Padres lock up ace Jake Peavy to a contract that stands as one of the winter’s best bargains. While he has missed out on a few players lately, he also has not given out a huge mistake of a contract – a trait that seems particularly valuable when his team’s payroll gives little room for error.
‘07 spaces: sometimes you got to trust yourself; it ain’t like anywhere else
December 10, 2007 at 11:29 pm | In Baseball, Space Awards | 3 CommentsTags: Dodger Stadium, Heath Bell, Padres, Satanic pacts, Scott Hairston
In an out-of-character moment, I have changed format to allow “best ___” for each award nominee. It may be a horrible, ill-advised experiment, but something possessed me to take that risk. (No, I am not inebriated. Maybe I’m just high on the fact that last week saw the most traffic, and the largest increase in traffic, in the blog’s history.)
2007 Space Awards ~ Baseball Things of The Year: Part II
10. Padres rallies: With possibly the shrewdest general manager in baseball, the Padres have entrenched themselves as one of my top three teams. This year featured several memorable comebacks late in games, including a 5-run 9th inning against the Dodgers to erase a 5-1 deficit on June 7. Most notable were the clutch accomplishments of Scott Hairston, Best Statistically-Unverifiable But Memorable “Clutch Hitter”. His first Padres home runs were game-tying and winning shots against the Giants on August 3. In September, he hit two home runs in the 9th inning or later, each of which tied or won the game.
9. Cleveland/Boston pitchers’ duels: On July 24 and 25, two of the American League’s strongest teams matched up in consecutive 1-0 games. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Best Satanic Pact-Making Pitcher Fausto Carmona each came up with wins, as the games’ starters went a combined 30 innings, allowing 17 hits and 5 walks while striking out 25. As we all know, the Indians and Red Sox would go on to give me a nervewracking ALCS, and in retrospect, one could call these games a preview of just how close the playoffs would be.
8. One-game playoff: The aforementioned Hairston staked the Padres to a 8-6 lead with a home run in the 13th inning against the Rockies, but it was not to be; Trevor Hoffman all but cemented his reputation as a big-game choke artist, allowing two doubles, a triple, and a walk before the season-ending, playoff-spot-losing sacrifice fly to Jamey Carroll. As disappointing as the game was for San Diego, no true baseball fan could call it anything but a great way to spend four and a half hours. The high-offense affair was a nail-biter once it turned into a duel of bullpens, featuring almost three season-saving innings from San Diego’s unheralded Heath Bell, Best Bell Still Doing Great Things In San Diego.
7. Wright Chased: Daisuke Matsuzaka was far from on, but April 22 marked a victory for the Red Sox as Yankee rookie Chase Wright, in a feat of pitching incompetence only seen once before in Major League history, surrended four consecutive home runs to Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, and Jason Varitek. Somewhere, Paul Foytack smiled. Historical Ineptitude: Best New Blog Tag.
6. Peavy vs. Penny: I was fortunate enough to end up at the park for another San Diego bullpen tour de force. On the night my heart was stolen by the wonder of Chavez Ravine, Best Venue For Anything, the Dodgers were charitable enough to put up a thrilling fight but wear down first. As they so seldom seem to do, the pitchers duel between two All-Star starter candidates lived up the hype; each starter went seven one-run innings. It was only the soft underbelly of the Dodger bullpen, in the form of Brett Tomko, that let surprising hero Geoff Blum and former Dodger Jose Cruz, Jr. double in a pair of runs to break the 1-1 in the top of the 12th. The San Diego bullpen, by contrast: five innings (two from the aforementioned Bell), one hit.
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