grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

July 29, 2009 at 9:12 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
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Cleveland Indians traded SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies for SPs Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp, C Lou Marson, and SS Jason Donald.

What this deal is: a nice job by the Phillies to add a very good arm to a rotation that could be good, but has underachieved a bit. I’m relieved that Lee isn’t heading to Fenway, where righties might take advantage of the Green Monster, but still figured he’d cost more than the Phillies paid, even with his question marks (I heard an analyst say that Lee will be fine in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philly, because he’s “a strikeout pitcher;” that’s patently untrue as he hasn’t had even 7 K per 9 since 2004).

What it’s not: good for the Indians’ future.

I’m not one for sports talk radio, but I had to listen in on Cleveland’s AM stations today and hear the reactions to this one. One sentence I heard summed things up this well: “Mark Shapiro isn’t dumb.”

The Indians GM is indeed no fool, which makes it hard to see past the salary dump aspect of this move. Lee will make $8 million next year, and that was clearly too much for the Indians to retain the 2008 Cy Young winner. Francisco’s not due for arbitration until next winter, so his inclusion here looks more about opening an opportunity for prospect Matt LaPorta (and giving Philly a solid bat off the bench) than about money. Cutting expenditures has been expected for the Indians, but the prospect package here makes it look like building the farm system is a clear second to saving money.

For Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays wanted a package including some from the group of pitchers J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor. All but Drabek look to be worth the hype, in my eyes; the 21-year-old has only reached AA this year and seems neither overpowering nor exceptionally able to locate his pitches. Of that group, I’d find Michael Taylor the most exceptional, and understand if Philly only wanted to deal, say, Happ and Brown.

But because of the Indians’ willingness to settle, they didn’t have to part with either to get a slightly worse pitcher who makes roughly half as much money. Instead, the Tribe added a less advanced, right-handed version of Happ in Carrasco; they’ll have to hope that the most polished product in the group harnesses his stuff a bit more and becomes the #4-5 starter that Happ already is.

The more interesting arm is Knapp, who has struck out more than a better per inning at the low minors. Not yet 19, he’s got plenty of time to develop into a very nice pitcher, and if he stays healthy, he’s by far the most likely to be a significant piece of a Cleveland club. …except he’s already battling shoulder soreness this year.

Donald will soon be 25, and took big steps back after moving up to AAA; his power disappeared and his on-base percentage is a paltry .297, though that could be explained by a knee injury that led to surgery earlier this season. Finally, there’s Marson, who had a great 2008 but lost some of his patience and power this year. I still like his discipline if not his power, but his ceiling doesn’t seem high. I’d guess that his presence signals the imminent departure of C Victor Martinez (and/or backup C Kelly Shoppach, who’s due for a raise in arbitration this winter). Anyone who can stay behind the plate has a pretty low offensive threshold, but he’s yet another player on a down year.

And that is, in a nutshell, the problem with this deal. The Indians acquired not one player who hasn’t seen his value fall lately; buying low is one thing, but taking four prospects who are having down and/or injured years just seems unnecessarily risky, particularly since none of them were as promising as someone like Taylor without weighing these problems.  In my mind, this package could be seen as roughly fair if the Phillies’ prospects were healthy and performing up to expectations.

Cleveland opted for some guys who have low ceilings but are close to the majors, possibly because they can then get away with not paying experienced players in the near future. Young and raw, Knapp is the exception, but it seems foolish to take only one player with star upside for a reigning Cy Young. The Indians didn’t have to make this deal – Lee could have been held another two days to try to squeeze out a better trade, or even shopped this winter. They had leverage in their ability to walk away from the proposal, but it’s very hard to look at the final result and think they properly applied that leverage.

so much for my happy ending

June 7, 2009 at 9:59 pm | In Baseball, Dementia | 1 Comment
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The bad news: one giant blunder has destroyed my faith in a promising GM, making me wonder what I ever saw in that sorry excuse for an MLB executive.

The good news: the Red Sox are again concerned primarily with the Yankees, instead of an annoying second-rate rival, which helps this “musical guilty pleasure satisfies similarly shameful baseball apparel pseudo-fetish” story remain untainted by clear and present danger to Boston’s playoff hopes from the name on the cute woman’s jersey.

Creepy intro aside: on to the analysis!

Why Do You Still Have A Job? When one talks about Philadelphia’s pitching woes, it’s important to note that there are more than a few problems on that staff. Citizens Bank Park hasn’t even played as a high-offense environment this year, but the rotation is riddled with ERAs in the mid-4s, while closer Brad Lidge has been unbelievably awful amidst a bullpen anchored by Ryan Madson. Yet there’s enough talent in Philly to make it hard to justify massive changes… except when it comes to Jamie Moyer. I’ll confess that I wasn’t hard enough on the Phillies when they granted a two-year, $13 million extension to the 46-year-old southpaw last winter, probably because it looked downright sane next to the Raul Ibanez contract (which still has plenty of time to become a huge mistake). But now, that huge investment looks like the only defensible answer to the question that provides a title to this section. Thus far, Moyer has posted the worst home run rate of his career, while his strikeouts are down from last year. With a .307 average on balls in play, Moyer may have had a few unlucky breaks this year, but bloop singles are hardly his problem. For context:

Player A: .360 OBP, .537 SLG, 12 doubles and 14 HR in 272 PA
Player B: .360 OBP, .538 SLG, 10 doubles and 17 HR in 242 PA

Player A represents Moyer’s opponents this year. Player B is Carlos Pena. If one is forced to face a lineup of Carlos Penas, one’s chances of winning are not particularly good. These are the circumstances for which the Phillies are paying more than five percent of this year’s payroll*.

Underrated Addition: The Reds have a well-known pitching prospect in Homer Bailey, but when Edinson Volquez went on the DL for the second time this year, Cincy finally gave a chance to a lesser known arm in Matt Maloney. I mentioned Maloney in my pre-season write-up, but due to past issues with the long ball, he looked more like a late-season option. With Bailey’s own home run problems, however, Maloney finally got a chance, and the results were predictable: too many home runs to be a front-end guy, but just one walk, and ultimately six solid innings that put the Reds in position to win. There’s no way to avoid the fact that all of the home runs severely limit Maloney’s value, but considering how poorly Bailey has pitched in the majors and his iffy control, I’d have to say that Cincy’s using the superior pitcher at this point, even if he is almost an obscurity next to the well-known Bailey.

Overrated Player of the Week: It’s no secret that I love the Red Sox, but it’s similarly obvious that I’m willing to call things as I see them even when it reflects poorly on the franchise. This week, the team brought Mark Kotsay back to the majors after a long rehab assignment to recover from back surgery and then a calf strain. It’s widely accepted that Kotsay gives the team a valuable bench presence capable of playing first base and outfield to rest the club’s starters, and everyone from NESN to national media seems to love the guy. The only problem? He’s awful at baseball. The 33-year-old can provide mediocre-to-acceptable defense, but with a bat as useless as his, his modest value in the field is more than erased. Despite low strikeout rates, Kotsay has not managed an OBP over .340 since 2004. His rehab stint doesn’t offer many positive indicators for his bat: no walks, and just one extra-base hit in 33 at-bats. Sample size warnings attach, but when you’re posting a BABIP over .310 and still can’t get your on-base percentage over .300 at AAA, there’s a pretty good chance you’re just not an offensive asset.

Kotsay wouldn’t be an obscene use of a bench spot on a non-contending club, but for a team with Boston’s expectations and resources, there’s no excuse for the presence of such a player. There are numerous 1B/OF options at AAA, including Jeff Bailey (.390 OBP at AAA this year), Chris Carter (slugged .515 at AAA last year), and Jon Van Every (26 HR at AAA last year, and more than solid in a short MLB stint this season). Instead, Boston’s going with a veteran who hasn’t had an OPS of even .750 since before Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted. As far as I’m concerned, Kotsay’s best asset is his solid chance of going back on the DL and forcing the team to give playing time to better and younger hitters.
Concessions That Don’t Change The Meaning Of The Big Picture And Larger Statistical Samples: While I was writing this indictment of his bat, Kotsay hit a home run.

Mistake of the Week (Or “Heartbreaking Betrayal of Foolish Optimism of the Week”): The acquisition of outfielder Nate McLouth could just as easily have been “Shrewd Move of the Week” for the Braves, but it stands out more starkly as undermining my faith in Neal Huntington. After other scathing reviews of the deal, Huntington tried to defend
himself, but his claims that the trade had no financial motivation makes it all the harder to justify; as much as I had come to like Huntington, the trade and his poor explanation are rather heartbreaking. Gorkys Hernandez “has the speed and potential to become an above average everyday major league outfielder?” Possibly, but as he slugs just .375 at AA and has some damning strikeout tendencies, it looks more likely that his future is as a defensive center fielder with some speed – and a below-average bat. Charlie Morton’s “upside” and “power” pitching? Even if we toss out his disasterous time in the bigs, Morton is 25 and has never struck out even a batter per inning at any level of the minors. Huntington’s description of Jeff Locke as an “intriguing young left handed starter with the frame, athleticism and stuff to become a quality major league starting pitcher” is full of cliches that frequently scream “completely unproven” – and ultimately, the cop-out that they’ll be happy if he just becomes a “quality” starter, conceding a lack of front-end potential. Considering how much Locke has been lost (hooray, TV puns!) upon reaching merely the High-A Carolina League, I’d call him a complete wildcard who needs to start living up to his scouting reports.

None of these players are bad for the Pirates in and of themselves. Huntington is right that his team needs to add quantity as well as quality, but getting no blue-chip prospects for a player like McLouth is simply unacceptable. Much like their surrender of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last year, the Bucs made a trade that they didn’t need to make despite a prospect package that should not have been overwhelming; one such instance isn’t damning, but a second starts to form a concerning pattern. In the case of McLouth’s trade, there is the additional consideration that they dealt a young player signed to a contract favorable to the team – no matter what his defensive shortcomings, he should be worth far more than he’s scheduled to be paid through 2012. McLouth was a player who should have required an overwhelming offer to be traded, and there’s little about the package of Braves prospects that could be seen as overwhelming. For Atlanta, the deal is of such a lopsided nature and huge impact that they move ahead of Seattle and the rapidly falling Pittsburgh and into my top 5.

* This is extremely lazy, cheap, and flawed logic, but I really enjoy “Pitcher N turns opponents into Hitter X” comparisons.

if i could, i would let it go

May 10, 2009 at 6:17 pm | In Baseball, Historical Ineptitude | 4 Comments
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It’s been a pretty slow week transaction-wise; the recently-maligned P.J. Walters got his deserved demotion, the Yankees called up their fourth-string catcher, and the Nationals wisely gave up hoping that Mike Hinckley could be a useful pitcher. Meanwhile, the pantheon of baseball idiocy has found a new god – but more on that later. First, something that went right!

Shrewd Move of the Week: Imagine, if you will, a pitcher who comes out of the bullpen and walks almost a batter per inning. This pitcher only manages to strike out a batter every three innings. Did I mention he’s 30 and has a history of extreme mediocrity? But what if, by inexplicable luck of stranded runners and a low hit rate thanks to a .237 average allowed on balls in play, he has a 3.75 ERA? Should you let him keep pitching instead of going to pitchers who might put up better component statistics? No, you should not. And this is the wisdom that Indians GM Mark Shapiro found as applying to Vinnie Chulk. Chulk has had several big games for the Tribe this year, including 2 1/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox. But underneath his brief success was a set of statistics that screams “I’ve been incredibly lucky!” Chulk’s upside was… well, basically what they got from him, and Shapiro deserves to be commended for being willing to designate Chulk for assignment earlier this week. The only way I could be happier is if he manages to trade Chulk for something of value from a less thorough front office.

Oh, and…: Calling this week “uneventful” doesn’t really work for me as a Sox fan. Between writing and press time (a five-minute window in which found my Tic Tacs), it was learned that Red Sox “relief” “pitcher” Javier Lopez has finally been designated for assignment. Javy’s been every bit as awful as his 7.01 xFIP, posting an almost 2:1 walk:strikeout ratio. He’ll not be missed.

Question of the Week: What does Manny Ramirez’s suspension mean for the Red Sox? Very little. While I was quite surprised at Manny’s positive test for a banned substance, the theory that this undermines the Red Sox’ 2004 and 2007 championships is rather absurd. Admittedly, Sox fans may have lost some of the moral high ground from which they can boo the steroid-using Alex Rodriguez, but there’s a difference between what is immoral and what is unfair. If Manny was juicing in 2004 or 2007 – a fact that is certainly possible, though impossible to know for now – it means he’s the same slime as A-Rod. But the consensus is that steroids have run rampant through Major League Baseball for the past two decades; while the playing field may be heavily enhanced and artificially heightened, there’s no reason to think it hasn’t been level. Since countless other players and teams used the same “advantage” as a hypothetical ‘roided-up Manny and the Sox, I can’t see any loss of legitimacy to the ‘04 and ‘07 rings, and Manny’s possible crimes taint my memories of those years far less than his ugly exit from Boston.

Why Do You Still Once Again Have A Job? I like the Mariners. With their surprising strength early in the season, they provide a viable backup rooting plan in the AL West should the A’s continue to be hopeless. But other than a misguided wish to recapture the BABIP-luck-induced magic of a rookie 2002 in Colorado, there’s no justification for Denny Stark’s presence in the bullpen. Since being called up last week, Stark has pitched in four games. Only one of those appearances was a clean inning; each of the others involved at least as many walks as strikeouts. His worst outing came Tuesday, when he surrendered six runs on five hits (one a home run) and a walk to lose to Texas in the 10th inning. Stark’s major league career makes clear his poor control, inability to strike batters out, and problems with the long ball; his minor league numbers only show that he’s able to keep the ball in AAA stadiums, but still not very good at getting guys out. It would be nice if Stark could overcome multiple arm surgeries to be useful in his first major league season since 2004, but simply put, he has never been good enough to merit the chance Seattle is giving him right now. Perhaps continuing to contend is unrealistic for the Mariners, even in a weak division, but right now, they’re giving away games if they keep Stark.

Rhetorical Question of the Week: Why would anyone this willfully ignorant be hired for one of the most powerful jobs in baseball? I had written a serious (and furious) rebuttal to this – wherein Raul Ibanez’ unforeseeable defensive strength through one month of the season is used to undermine the validity of statistics – but you know what, Ruben Amaro, Jr.? You’ve set the Phillies back to the bottom quintile of my rooting hierarchy, but beyond that, you’re not worth the outrage. Instead, I’m just gonna take the most offensive part:

“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all,” Amaro said. “I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick. I think defense is subjective. You know, if you watch a guy, whether he has range or not. You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers. It doesn’t happen. “We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.”

and get FJM-y with it, piece by horrendous piece.

I do not buy numbers defensively.
I do not buy books at list price. Thanks for sharing your money-saving tips in these troubling economic times.

I look at fielding percentage.
Great way to show you “do not buy numbers defensively. At all.” Fielding percentage is not actually a number, but a special, magical tool to see how good a player is at defense. It’s like a Pensieve, except it only shows clips from SportsCenter.

What’s that? It’s actually just a measure of how good a guy is when he touches the ball, with no regard for how often he actually gets to it, which would be a far more accurate measure of defensive ability? Oh. Well, I’m sure that that common mistake won’t end my dreams of working for the Phillies.

I think defense is subjective.
The problem with sports these days is that there’s too much high-stakes testing going on. Everyone is so concerned with numbers that managers teach to the test instead of having their players learn to play the game. In the real world, how good teams are at baseball isn’t determined by numbers and percentages, but whether they Play The Game The Right Way. Like offense and pitching, defense is subjective; how it results in “runs” and “scoring” is just an illusion perpetuated by The Man to keep kids like Raul Ibanez from following their dreams and just having fun with the game.

And for that matter, why do people insist on trying to put labels on Brad Lidge? It’s subjective. Telling him that he’s been “losing” by giving up “runs” and letting the other team “score” is only going to destroy his love for the game! Damn it, he just loves watching the ball fly out of the park after he throws it, and that’s neither bad nor good – it’s what’s right for him.

You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers.
Exactly! And routes are what matter. If Ibanez takes routes that let him cut the ball off on the first hop, instead of catching it on the fly at the same rate that others in his position can, who are we to judge? The grace… the aesthetic awe that is a route… that’s so much more important than the result of the play. Smart people know that beauty trumps results every time; if only more people had voted for Diane Lane instead of that policy nerd Obama, I’m sure our economy would be booming by now.

We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.
Which is why fielding percentage is so important. It takes scouts and keenly-trained observers to count how many errors a guy makes, but something like Zone Rating? Why, any schmuck could measure that without having to look at an actual game! And lord knows we stat geeks just hate watching baseball.

i consider it a challenge before the whole human race

February 13, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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21. Philadelphia Phillies (23.9% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 21
Added: LF Raul Ibanez; C Ronny Paulino; SP Chan Ho Park; RPs Gary Majewski and Robert Mosebach; IFs Pablo Ozuna and Jorge Velandia
Lost: LFs Pat Burrell and So Taguchi; RPs Rudy Seanez, Tom Gordon, and Les Walrond
Strengths: There’s very little reason to think the Phillies won’t again be in the thick of the NL East race.  Their offense is among the NL’s best, with 2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard of particular value.  The acquisition of Ibanez should help offset the loss of Burrell, as will another strong season from 28-year-old CF Shane Victorino.  The Phillies used Jayson Werth as a fourth OF last year, letting him play in 134 games, but might get their best offense out of him in a strict platoon with RF Matt Stairs or even Greg Dobbs; Werth slugged 16 HR against lefties in just 171 plate appearances last year, but was far less valuable against righties.

The team, however, seems unlikely to be in dire need of offense, and might be fine letting Werth help an already strong defense.   Beyond Ibanez, who will turn 37 in June and was already a bad defender, the team has no huge liabilities in the field, and Werth could join Utley and 3B Pedro Feliz as not merely above average, but one of his position’s finest defenders.

Cole Hamels is the real last son of Krypton.
Weaknesses: As mentioned, Ibanez is neither young nor of any useful defensive ability.  His signing is one of the winter’s worst, and the error is even more inexcusable in light of the fact that former Philly LF Pat Burrell, who is four years younger than Ibanez and is a significantly better hitter, signed a shorter contract with a lower annual salary to play in Tampa.

After Hamels, the pitching has a severe dropoff.  46-year-old Jamie Moyer is not likely to repeat a season in which he posted his best HR rate since 2003, nor is trade acquisition Joe Blanton to match his second-half .265 BABIP.  The rotation will be rounded out by wife-beating Brett Myers and Chan Ho Park, Kyle Kendrick (whose 2008 K/BB ratio was absolutely hideous), rookie Carlos Carrasco, or J.A. Happ (probably the best option, but the Phillies seem like the type of team that could avoid him simply because they don’t want three left-handed starters).

The bullpen is also a liability.  While closer Brad Lidge could have another dominant year, it’s more likely that his fly ball rate will result in more home runs surrendered.  J.C. Romero will be suspended for the season’s first 50 games after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, leaving the team in the market for another lefty.  The re-signing of Scott Eyre, who will be 37 in May, brings to mind my greatest concern with the bullpen: rather than just a crop of mediocre arms, this is an old crop.  The six pitchers most assured of significant time in the pen – Lidge, Romero, Eyre, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey – will have an average age of 32 on Opening Day.  That itself may not be too damning, but in combination with the talent level of most of that list and the shortage of pitchers in Philly’s farm system, it shows extremely little upside in the Philadelphia relief corps.
My Stake: The effective swap of Burrell and fifteen million dollars for Ibanez is the greatest strike against the team.  They’ve had some terrible roster moves in the past, including the contracts of Romero and OF Geoff Jenkins, and re-signing Moyer for not one but two seasons (at at least $6.5 million each) seems a big risk with no real upside.

On the other hand, they’re exactly where they were before the playoffs – when they defeated the then-despised Dodgers (more on that at a future date; I sense a disturbance in the sabermetric force as David wonders how much higher they can possibly place) and the Boston-vanquishing Rays.  While putting numerical weight on my emotional preferences versus my empirical approval would be next to impossible, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to simply say that everything they did last October to earn my favor was cancelled out – but no worse – by their ridiculously stupid offseason.
‘09 Predictions: One more reason that Burrell to Ibanez is a big downgrade: including Utley and Howard, the team’s best offensive weapons are left-handed hitters – as is Ibanez.  Losing Burrell takes away the team’s best right-handed bat, and constructing a lineup that isn’t vulnerable to lefties could be tricky, even with Werth and switch-hitting SS Jimmy Rollins and Victorino.  Still, lineup order is often overrated, and with such a talented group of hitters, the only real problem would be injury or steep decline (most likely by Ibanez).  The real problem looks to be pitching, and with a front office so questionably competent, I can’t see the Phillies being very effective at patching the holes in their staff.  I’m going to put them at the low end of my range of expectations and call this an 84-win team.

‘08 rooting hierarchy iii: everybody knows this is nowhere

March 26, 2008 at 10:36 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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I had expected to be too apathetic to write much about the 25-10 teams, and accordingly had more teams per post in this middle range.  I’m starting to think that was a poor decision; while I have stronger feelings about teams at the extreme ends of the list, I feel still the need to write solid summaries of why the irrelevant, uninteresting teams ranked where they did.  With so little pre-existing loyalty (or, more bluntly, interest), this group is prone to shifting a lot even with few transactions.

23. Kansas City Royals 24.14% unweighted; 23.75% weighted (25/22.22/25).
Last year: #16. 69-93, 5th in AL Central.
In 2008: For a while, it looked like the Royals were going to pull themselves out of a cycle of hopelessness and impotence. Such optimism should have been destroyed when Gil Meche was signed to a five-year deal last winter. Yet somehow, there was hope that Dayton Moore’s new leadership would turn the club around.

I give up. The Royals’ best move this winter was giving a responsible contract to Brett Tomko, who should be the their #4 starter. The rest of the offseason was spent overpaying mediocre relievers, both Japanese and American, and finally giving way too much money to Jose Guillen, a low-upside veteran whose contract and defense should negate any midseason trade value. Why do they even get to this spot on my hierarchy, then? The lack of expectations lets me go easy on them, and unlike in larger markets, there’s no risk of a blundering GM gaining the illusion of prescience when the team wins despite, not because of, his work.
Prediction: 69-93; 5th in AL Central

22. Milwaukee Brewers 29.31% unweighted; 33.64% weighted (40/25/28.57).
Last year: #9. 83-79, 2nd in NL Central.
In 2008: Maybe this is harsh; the Brewers did have the wisdom to sign Mike Cameron this winter, and young players like Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun are a testament to a capable player development system. Yet it almost feels like GM Doug Melvin is blindly flailing and simply getting lucky when things go right; his free agency signings include overpaying a post-prime Jeff Suppan, and I find a problem in simply being willing to give major league contracts to players like Gabe Kapler, Craig Counsell, and most appallingly Jason Kendall, who will receive over four million dollars in 2008. Milwaukee was so desperate to be rid of Johnny Estrada – an all around better catcher than Kendall – that they took on the salary of reliever Guillermo Mota. This mistake was further compounded Tuesday, when the club released Claudio Vargas, a better pitcher than Mota with a similar salary. In short, the team makes too many bizarre blunders to be redeemed by its young talent; they are no longer lovably futile, but instead competitive despite severe missteps.
Prediction: 86-76; 2nd in NL Central

21. Philadelphia Phillies 29.31% unweighted; 21.55% weighted (0/40.91/28.57).
Last year: #15. 89-73, 1st in NL East, lost NLDS.
In 2008: What can one really say about the Phillies? It’s easy to love their high-powered trio of infielders (Howard, Utley, and Rollins), and the sabermetric community has always wanted Pat Burrell to receive recognition for his consistent offensive production, even as infuriating and frustrating as his strikeouts and defense can be. But on the other side of the ball, the team is beyond lost; the majority of the pitching stuff is comprised of ridiculously old veterans, ridiculously bad veterans, and non-prospects. Instead of finding underpaid arms with good upsides, GM Pat Gillick threw money at unremarkable lefty J.C. Romero, traded Geoff Geary for Brad Lidge, and spent the rest of the winter shoring up the 4th-6th outfield spots.
Prediction: 82-80; 3rd in NL East

20. Minnesota Twins 34.48% unweighted; 36.13% weighted (50/22.22/37.5).
Last year: #12. 79-83, 3rd in AL Central.
In 2008: The Twins have been quietly competent in recent years, but in the first winter under a new GM, Minnesota displayed a damning lack of ambition. When they wanted touted-but-troubled Tampa Bay prospect Delmon Young, they were forced to surrender both 25-year-old starter Matt Garza and defense-oriented shortstop Jason Bartlett. When they finally moved ace Johan Santana, it was not for a major-league ready, unlikely-to-miss young player like the Yankees’ Philip Hughes or the Red Sox’ Jacoby Ellsbury, but for a group of riskier, less established prospects from the Mets. The team is too far from contending for their spare parts (trading for Craig Monroe?  Really?) to matter, so their poor taste in free agents is almost irrelevant. Like other teams in this group, the Twins are too unremarkable for me to have any sense of loyalty based on the accomplishments of a departed GM.
Prediction: 76-86; 3rd in AL Central

19. Baltimore Orioles 37.93% unweighted; 35.13% weighted (25/44.44/37.5).
Last year: #25. 69-93, 4th in AL East.
In 2008: It’s easy to see what’s wrong with the Orioles, and no one can blame fans for staying away from a club whose ownership is so thoroughly unlikable. Yet when compared with some other teams’ offseasons, Baltimore’s recent history is fairly unobjectionable. Joining Nick Markakis (24, free agent in 2012) in the outfield are trade acquisitions Luke Scott (29, ‘13) and Adam Jones (22, ‘13). In the same deal that brought Jones – himself a fine bounty for starter Erik Bedard, given contract situations – the O’s added reliever George Sherrill, who, along with 2B Brian Roberts, should be a valuable trading chip during the season (If Baltimore were closer to contending, I would advocate keeping Sherrill – four seasons from free agency – but at age 30, he’s unlikely to be an asset by the time the Orioles will be concerned with “winning now.”). If- and with Baltimore’s history, any and all optimism must be very guarded – GM Andy MacPhail can keep being smarter than his predecessors, the Orioles may cease to be synonymous with failure.
Prediction: 70-92; 5th in AL East

2007 rooting hierarchy iv: so satisfied i’m on my way

March 29, 2007 at 11:54 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a Comment
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I am absolutely loving this new blogging method – I think I’m going to have to start doing more stuff in week-long series instead of pithy little entries. That’s right – Democratic Primary Candidate Countdown Week, The Physicality Scouting One-Year Blogfest, and someday, Music Evaluative Index Marathon. It almost makes me want to have more interests for giant blog series. I suppose I could also do week-long tributes to certain TV shows. Send more series ideas to:
Comments Section
c/o This Blog
Right Here, LJ
If we use your idea on the series of tubes, you’ll win a brief, passing mention! Now, on with the countdown.

15. Philadelphia Phillies The Phils took a significant fall from 2006. First and foremost, I think, is my unwillingness to forgive them for giving the Yankees OF Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle. Is it fair to put the blame on Philly for the Yanks murdering the Red Sox in that five-game sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s nonetheless there. And one when looks at Philly’s offseason moves – signing SP Adam Eaton and 3B Wes Helms to likely useless contracts – it doesn’t help matters. On the other hand, they did help with the White Sox’s inexplicable mission to get rid of SP Freddy Garcia, so here they are in the upper half.
14. Texas Rangers I don’t feel great about HR-prone SP Brandon McCarthy going to a HR-prone ballpark, but he was better than the minor leaguers sent to Chicago. That aside, GM Jon Daniels has yet to really make a name for himself. There’s still hope that a young guy (he’s not even 30) will be more statistically progressive than the average GM, but hope and ageism don’t justify a higher spot than this
13. New York Mets There was a time when the Mets were my favorite non-local club thanks in large part to my hatred of the Braves (and the awesomeness of Edgardo Alfonzo). That time has passed, but there’s still a lot to like about the Mets. Omar Minaya has performed well enough that maybe my defense of his Expos tenure was justified – give the man the resources to sign big names, and he’ll pick the right ones. Sure, there are also horribly overrated players like RF Shawn Green and C Paul Lo Duca, but the Mets balance those out with the bargain of 2B Jose Valentin. The one systemic weakness I see is Minaya’s evaluation of relief pitching, but that’s not reason to bump them any further down.
12. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has a way of getting greatness for nothing – most notably Rule 5 draftee SP Johan Santana and the trade of C AJ Pierzynski for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano. For these two transactions alone, he deserves a lot of credit. Of course, those are balanced by such signings as 2006’s 3B Tony Batista, who had no business on a major-league club. Still, it’s hard to argue with the Twins’ supply of quality young players. A sentimental factor here: C Joe Mauer’s presence on my fantasy team makes me like him just a bit more than his awesomeness merits.
11. Washington Nationals Okay, this ranking is pretty much insane. GM Jim Bowden is a “tools”-obsessed guy who has benefited largely from ripping off inferior GMs. So my rooting for the Nats really comes down to one thing: manager Manny Acta is willing to use evidence to guide his decisions. This shouldn’t be a distinguishing factor, but a manager coming out and basically citing run expectancies and properly devaluing the stolen base is almost unprecedented. Of course, the team has miserable starting pitching and isn’t going to win 80 games, but I still deign Acta worthy of my praise.
10. St. Louis Cardinals The defending world champions made some bad decisions this winter – bringing back Mark Mulder? Seriously? – but GM Walt Jocketty also moved to lock up SP Chris Carpenter through 2012, which means he’ll join 1B Albert Pujols as the core of the team for years to come. That alone gives the club probably 60 wins to build on, so as long as they keep finding undervalued talent like Adam Kennedy to fill out the roster and minimize the Mulder-type signings, the Cards should continue to be a .500 club even if they don’t make great moves.

on the street and the epitome of vague

September 26, 2005 at 4:21 pm | In Haiku | Leave a Comment
Tags: , , , , , , ,

I was bored during psych stats, which was essentially a review day. So, baseball haiku.

Racing toward end
Indians’ postseason looms
Magic number: five

Starting pitching woes
Plaguing both Red Sox Nation
and Evil Empire

A’s: almost no chance
Four games head-to-head this week
Not gonna matter

San Diego Padres
Losing team will make playoffs
Bane of existence

Phillies should own East
Abreu, Burrell, Myers…
*BLEEP*ing Braves again!

Cardinals: game’s best
Must fear them in World Series
Carpenter for Cy!

Cincy’s Shackelford
Great APR, blah rate stats.
Who the hell is he?

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