it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
all the small things
July 30, 2009 at 4:42 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Brian Anderson, Dodgers, Freddy Sanchez, George Sherrill, Giants, Josh Bell, Mariners, Mark Kotsay, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Robert Manuel, Steve Johnson, Tim Alderson, White Sox, Wladimir Balentien
While the Red Sox continue trampling my soul return to being awesome, a roundup of some of this week’s smaller trades (and by “small” I mean “occurred since my last blog and/or don’t involve many players;” several of these guys are important parts on contending teams or real prospects).
Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson.
The Dodgers filled a significant area of need, and did so with the best option on the market. Sherrill has two more years of arbitration, and should be an excellent left-handed setup man like Will Ohman and Hong-Chih Kuo were supposed to be. It is, however, worth noting that Sherrill battled severe control issues in 2008 and 2006, so he’s hardly a sure thing; it’s also significant that he’s 32 years old, and could be washed up by the time he hits free agency. This is clearly a win-now move, though, and with the Phillies upgrading their rotation, it’s understandable why Los Angeles was willing to risk those things for the potential to bolster their bullpen.
Bell is a significant price to pay for a reliever with such question marks, though; the 22-year-old looks like a nice power hitter in the making, and has adjusted well to AA. If he can field enough to stick at third, the O’s got a pretty nice hitter here for a pitcher unlikely to be on a contending Baltimore club. Johnson’s a run-of-the-mill low-minors pitching prospect; he’s 21 and has been in the system since 2005, only reaching AA this year. He seems to have some strikeout potential, but gives up too many HRs to look like anything but organizational fodder.
Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson.
Are you @%$^ing kidding me? Giants GM Brian Sabean has done some weird, stupid things in his time, but this one still came as a shock. Sanchez is a nice add and a lock to contribute more than the Giants’ AAA players who have attempted to man second base (not as much an upgrade from Juan Uribe, but that’s beside the point). He’ll add a little speed, a little pop, a little defense, and give the wildcard-leading Giants a slightly better shot at October.
That’s not enough. I’m okay dealing prospects for impact players who could increase one’s chances of a World Series berth, but the Giants cannot be considered one of the NL’s stronger playoff clubs, and Sanchez only serves to fill a hole. That in mind, the price was absolutely staggering. Alderson was San Francisco’s #2 pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner. While low strikeout totals seem to undermine a lot of the hype around him, he’s still an exorbitant price to pay for an okay second baseman; even if we accept that Alderson isn’t the front-of-the-rotation starter that some believe he is, his value on the market ought to have been a fair deal greater than a minor pickup like Sanchez.
Cincinnati Reds traded RP Robert Manuel to Seattle Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien.
This is one that makes decent sense for both teams. Balentien is a year younger, but has thus far not translated some translated minor-league power into major-league hitting success. He’s a strikeout liability, but perhaps the National League and a friendlier home park will help him rediscover his stroke. The Reds have suffered injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson, so it makes sense to add another young guy who still could turn into a long-term asset.
Manuel seems closer to being a useful major leaguer, though, so I give the edge in this trade to Seattle. The 26-year-old didn’t get much time in a surprisingly strong Reds bullpen, but his minor league numbers make him an interesting relief prospect. To be successful in the AL, he’ll probably need to find the strikeout ability he showed as one of the Southern League’s best pitchers last year, but his control makes him a nice asset even if he doesn’t blow batters away.
Boston Red Sox traded “1B”/”OF” Mark Kotsay to Chicago White Sox for CF Brian Anderson.
27-year-old Anderson can’t hit and is overrated in the field. 33-year-old Kotsay can’t hit, can’t field, and was designated for assignment, giving the Red Sox a limited window to trade him; he will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Red Sox traded sure garbage for probable garbage that has a slim chance of turning into something of small value.
you ain’t going nowhere
July 29, 2009 at 2:54 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin, Ian Snell, Jack Wilson, Jeff Clement, Mariners, Nathan Adcock, Pirates, Ronny Cedeno
I should have a review of the Cliff Lee deal up tonight, but first, a boring trade not likely to impact playoff races!
Pittsburgh Pirates traded SS Jack Wilson and SP Ian Snell to Seattle Mariners for C/1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, and minor league SPs Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock.
First thought: the Pirates are finally doing something not thoroughly futile. Second thought: …and that’s about all I can say for them.
Wilson will be a free agent at the end of the year (or rather, with an expensive club option, his team should make him a free agent), and Snell’s stock has fallen quite a bit since his eye-opening 2007 season. There’s nothing about Wilson that a team completely out of the hunt is likely to miss, and Snell is the sort of player for whom the proverbial “change of scenery” trade seems to make sense. With the Pirates paying most of their salaries for 2009, the deal has to be judged solely on the players going back to Pittsburgh.
Clement is easily the centerpiece of the package from Seattle; the 25-year-old can take walks and has solid power that could make him a nice doubles hitter in the majors, even if he can’t convert some of those two-baggers to home runs. The question, however, is where he’ll play – Clement was a catching prospect, but has increasingly been used as a designated hitter. If the Pirates are forced to use him at first base, it’s tough to see him being anything special, but he could at least be a cheap, solid hitter for a team that won’t be shooting for anything past “respectable” for several years.
But that’s about it for now – Cedeno is only 26, but he should manage to be a downgrade from Jack Wilson’s productivity. The prospects are where the Mariners could eventually regret the deal, but that looks unlikely to me; they moved quantity rather than quality here. None of the pitchers are highly ranked on any of the lists I found (including Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and a handful of others), and none of them have stats that make me think they’re being undervalued. 22-year-old Lorin has shown some strikeout ability, but with walk problems. Pribanic is soon to be 23, and his hopes look to hinge on continuing to induce ground balls. Adcock is the most advanced of the trio, but that’s not saying much; in the High-A California League, he’s seen his walks spike and his strikeouts dip; he’s only 21, but has been in the M’s system since 2006, and his slow advancement has to be considered a negative indicator.
I really like Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, and I’m willing to trust his evaluation of his own prospects. He gave up quite a few young trading chips, but the best bet to help the Pirates is likely to do so in pretty mediocre fashion. The idea that Seattle can make a run at the wild card (currently behind three teams and 6.5 out) seems far-fetched, but stranger things have happened, and this isn’t just a move for 2009. Snell has been dominant at AAA Indianapolis, so his potential’s not gone yet; he’s due just over $4 million next year, and the Mariners then have a pair of club options. If he does well in the spacious Safeco Field, he represents a solid arm under team control for several years; if not… well, he’s still farther along than any of the prospects will likely ever be. And if his presence gives the Mariners the depth to deal fly ball-prone SP Jarrod Washburn before he turns back into a pumpkin, better still.
bust a move
July 24, 2009 at 8:37 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: Indians, Red Sox, A's, Padres, Cardinals, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Pirates, Orioles, Matt Holliday, Mark Kotsay, Julio Lugo, Brett Wallace, Chris Duncan, Adam LaRoche, Rafael Betancourt, Cla Meredith, Oscar Salazar, Felipe Lopez
Because trades are starting to come steadily, I’m abandoning my “Sunday roundup” format for the next week. There’s no real reason I can’t give some succinct transaction reviews during the week, particularly since the trade deadline falls on a Friday and I’ll likely have waning enthusiasm two days later for most of the news.
Pujols is no longer alone: The Cardinals, realizing that their offense is basically Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, wisely pursued the best outfielder presumed to be on the trade market in Oakland’s Matt Holliday. Holliday’s numbers have slipped noticably since leaving Colorado, but he’ll still bring more to the plate than St. Louis’ alternatives. The question, however, is whether it was worth it – Holliday will be a free agent after the season, and the prospect cost looks rather steep for a few months of a non-elite player.3B Brett Wallace seems overhyped for someone with only a small stint of dominant hitting at AA and not much of a defensive reputation, but he’s not yet 23 and showed a lot of offensive potential in his college career at Arizona State. Starter Clay Mortensen looks like pitching depth at best, but again, youth mitigates things; at 24, further improvement, while not guaranteed, is far from impossible. The rawest talent the A’s received was in 21-year-old outfielder Shane Peterson, who looks like the sort of player the A’s might have drafted with their second compensation pick had they lost Holliday in free agency.
With that, and Wallace’s upside, taken into consideration, it’s a solid haul for Oakland; while Wallace could very conceivably make the Cardinals look back in regret, it’s hard to fault them for giving up the two replaceable minor leaguers with the NL Central title looking very attainable. Just how great a cost such a victory would come at is a matter of one’s faith in Wallace turning into an impact player.
Red Sox get better for free: Julio Lugo should not have been designated for assignment, but he was; by this week, he had to be considered a sunk cost for the Red Sox, and managing to turn him into anything before he cleared waivers would be a nice move. Theo Epstein did a little better than “anything,” acquiring from the Cardinals 1B/OF Chris Duncan. While Duncan’s defense and health are huge liabilities, he is only 28 and brings a little pop and the ability to take a walk. Perhaps most importantly, he also gave Boston – dealing with an injured Jeff Bailey and underachieving Chris Carter and Paul McAnulty – the organizational depth to finally cut ties with the utterly futile use of a roster spot that is Mark Kotsay.
Kotsay might not have been replaced on the major league roster, however, had the Sox not also acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Pirates. LaRoche is a platoon player who should only start against right-handed pitchers, but he allows Kevin Youkilis to shift to third and spell the quickly-aged Mike Lowell. More importantly, he has eliminated Boston’s most glaring weakness (in specifically Kotsay and in general lack of someone to play over Lowell) at a minimal cost: the club is taking on just $3 million in payroll, and gave Pittsburgh nothing more than organizational filler in Argenis Diaz (a no-hit shortstop who was cluttering the 40-man roster) and Hunter Strickland (who, while young, neither strikes guys out nor keeps the ball in the park). While Boston could make themselves the divisional favorite by adding an impact player before next Friday, they have added the only thing they absolutely needed in LaRoche.
Indians save some money: Okay, that was harsh. Rafael Betancourt’s 2010 option for over $5 million wasn’t going to be picked up by a team that has quit pretending to care about spending money on players, and draft compensation for a Type B free agent would hinge upon them actually offering arbitration to Betancourt, which is hardly a given. Considering that, sending Betancourt to the Rockies for Connor Graham isn’t the worst thing Cleveland could have done; Graham has some chance of being a useful major leaguer in his future. That’s about all I can say, though; while he can certainly strike guys out, he’s had control problems in A-ball, and his main asset – home run prevention – looks like more luck than ground ball tendencies. The one thing that could turn things around would be a move to the bullpen, but we’ll have to see how the Indians handle their new prospect.
Padres raise eyebrows: While many comments online are highly critical of San Diego GM Kevin Towers, I liked the move that sent reliever Cla Meredith to Baltimore. Meredith, 26, is a useful middle reliever, but he’s headed to arbitration this winter and the Padres are trying to cut payroll. Their bounty, 31-year-old infielder Oscar Salazar, looks like a late bloomer; he made some noise with a big 2008 at AAA and then continued to be a surprise in the bigs. While he may be nothing more than a backup corner infielder, he has less service time than Meredith and thus is a cheaper option for a team on a budget. The most intriguing part, however, is that his arrival in San Diego could be seen as a precursor to the club finally trading 1B Adrian Gonzalez – reported to be unlikely – or 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Uninteresting player dealt to uninteresting team in uninteresting trade: That’s the best way to describe the snoozefest of a trade that sent 2B Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and I’ll understand if readers zone out for the rest of this post. Lopez seems, to me, like he’s been a Brewer before, but he has not; I assume that my mind just saw “middling infielder who isn’t great at anything but isn’t awful, either” and thought of Milwaukee. The Brewers sent Arizona a pair of similarly unremarkable prospects; Roque Mercedes looks like your run-of-the-mill minor-league reliever, while Cole Gillespie’s walk abilities and doubles power don’t make the 25-year-old look like a great bet in left field.
old habits die hard
July 5, 2009 at 3:16 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Chris Davis, Indians, Jesus Colome, John Meloan, Nationals, notspects, Nyjer Morgan, Pirates, Rangers, Ryan Langerhans, Winston Abreu, you're still breaking my heart Neal
Because roster news is still coming in as I write this, expect All-Star thoughts sometime during the week or in next weekend’s entry.
Completely Acceptable Move of the Week: Since more than 30% of my regular readership hails from Cleveland, I feel I should address this week’s swap of minor league pitchers Winston Abreu and John Meloan. Meloan was sent to Tampa Bay (with cash considerations) for the waived Abreu. While he’s not yet 25, Meloan’s potential seems limited to me; as a starter, he struggled with his control, but he has not shown the dominance one would want at AAA from a reliever. Abreu is something of a mirror image: at 32, his future is somewhat limited and swift decline could always lurk right around the corner. Yet in recent years, his work at AAA in several organizations has been impressive, with more than a strikeout an inning and decent control since 2005. The one concern seems to be the long ball, which plagued him in his longest stint in the big leagues. Still, for a team like the Indians, I think his upside is worth the solid-but-unspectacular potential of Meloan; while he won’t save the relief corps this year, Cleveland could have a nice weapon in 2010, whether to set up or trade.
Overrated and Underrated Players of the Week: A lot has been made of the Nyjer Morgan trade, including analysis that is, at best, irrelevant, and possibly dead wrong. Morgan’s defense is his only asset; whether it’s awesome or slightly above average is a matter of one’s source. FanGraphs provides UZR numbers that make him look exceptional, but THT’s numbers from Baseball Info Solutions give a picture of a below-average left fielder with one slightly positive year in center. Because defensive metrics are still far from universal, we must evaluate Morgan’s value as a hitter, and that’s where the Nationals’ error (aside from surrendering Joel Hanrahan for the low-upside Sean Burnett) becomes clear. The ever-popular blind comparison:
Player A: .283/.348/.371 in major league career; .300/.357/.366, 70 SB in 126 games at AAA
Player B: .235/.337/.382 in major league career; .293/.387/.486, 37 HR in 313 games at AAA
Both of these players are 29 with strong defensive reputations but more uncertain statistics. Player A is Morgan, for whom the Nationals downgraded their bullpen and gave up the potential of Lastings Milledge; Player B is the severely underrated Ryan Langerhans, who was traded from Washington for the limited talents of Mike Morse. At best, these are two players of comparable value, and there is a very strong case to be made that Langerhans’ superior numbers in the minors mean he should be projected as a far better hitter. Morgan’s flashy speed, however, created the perception that he was a far more desirable commodity, and as such one-dimensional players can decline quickly, he could fall from his current peak value rapidly for a Nationals club that ought to be building for the future. Langerhans, on the other hand, already has three doubles and as many walks with his new club, and I will again praise Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik for the cheap acquisition.
Mistake of the Week: On the other end of the Morgan trade, the Pirates upgraded their bullpen and added a young outfielder who at least has a tiny chance of being with Pittsburgh’s next contending team. They absolutely come out ahead in the deal, but GM Neal Huntington still continued to destroy my faith in him this week. OF/1B Eric Hinske hasn’t hit for much power this year, but he has the best OBP of his career. Making just $1.5 million in 2009, he is a nice commodity who, if the Pirates insisted on trading him, could have brought in a small piece of Pittsburgh’s future. Instead, continuing with his tradition of seeking non-prospects, Huntington settled for Eric Fryer (23 years old and struggling to a .250/.333/.344 line at High-A) and Casey Erickson (two days younger than Fryer, he’s posted respectable numbers on the mound but never been above Single A). In acquiring these two non-prospects (or “notspects”) from the Yankees, the Pirates also agreed to pay $400,000 of Hinske’s remaining contract. Moves like this force me to reconsider my belief that the Pirates are moving towards a .500 season any time in the foreseeable future.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? The Texas Rangers have plenty of hitters, particularly in the outfield. Despite solid 2009 campaigns, David Murphy and Andruw Jones are still splitting playing time, and when Josh Hamilton returns, Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz will be competing for time as well. But with Hank Blalock seemingly entrenched as DH, there’s just no spot for these guys. After all, Blalock can’t possibly move to first base, where–
Oh. Well then. That changes everything. Someone’s just reminded me that 1B Chris Davis is not, in fact, repeating his 2008 campaign, wherein he slugged .549 and looked like a potential superstar for the Rangers. Rather, he has seen his production fall off a cliff; with a .201/.256/.417 line, he has the worst on-base percentage of any first baseman with more than 70 at bats. After striking out 88 times in 295 at bats last year, he’s racked up an MLB-leading 113 Ks in just 254 at bats this year; with just 17 walks, this is unacceptable. His failure is not a matter of bad luck, either: when he actually puts the ball in play, Davis is hitting a perfectly normal .286. In any other year, one could defend the Rangers for simply having nothing to lose in trying to build Davis’ confidence by standing behind him; for most other teams, one could claim that his 15 home runs would be too hard to replace. But for the 2009 Rangers, the AL West is winnable, and the club’s bench offers better options than Davis. If the team doesn’t make Blalock its full-time first baseman soon, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves if they come up a few games short of the Angels for a playoff berth.
Why Don’t You Still Have A Job? They say beggars can’t be choosers, but the Nationals seem to think they’re in the position to ditch perfectly adequate relievers. They designated Jesus Colome for assignment, and considering his most superficial stats (8.40 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) and the fact that the Nationals clearly undervalue him, I don’t see anyone bothering to pay much in trade. Yet in a season that clearly is heading nowhere, Washington is giving service time to the mildly intriguing young arm of Craig Stammen instead of sticking with Colome, whose ugly results are belied by his underlying numbers. His hit rate is up due to a .407 average on balls in play, and his 18.5% line drive rate is the lowest it has been in five years. He was better in June (two walks all month) than in May, and only allowed his first home run on Friday. His walk rate is far superior to that of teammates Julian Tavarez and Ron Villone’s, and as they youngest of the trio is the least likely to completely implode.
I have no idea what the Nationals expected from Colome; did they think Jesus would be their bullpen’s savior? He should have been seen as a decent depth option for a lousy team, and behind some unlucky breaks, that’s exactly what he has been. While he is certainly not a pitcher that a contending team should want, he’s far too respectable (with a 3.58 FIP) to be kicked off of the Washington Nationals.
it’s gonna be a long walk home
March 1, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a CommentTags: my apparent man-crush on Neal Huntington, Pirates
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (94.24% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 11
Added: LF Eric Hinske; IFs Ramon Vazquez, Ruben Gotay, and Andy Phillips; RPs Denny Bautista, Chris Bootcheck, Juan Mateo, Donnie Veal, Virgil Vasquez, and Brian Slocum; OFs Jeff Salazar and Craig Monroe; C Jason Jaramillo
Lost: Cs Ronny Paulino and Raul Chavez; 1B Doug Mientkiewicz; RP T.J. Beam; OF Jason Michaels; IFs Chris Gomez and Luis Rivas; SP Jon Van Benschoten
Strengths: Not many. The only Pirates of significant value, in my mind, are C Ryan Doumit and CF Nate McLouth. Doumit had a breakout season at age 27, coming in fourth among NL catchers (with 100 AB) in slugging percentage and 6th in on-base percentage while playing in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. While those accomplishments were achieved with the help of a .333 average on balls in play and included a high percentage of singles, he also managed to play acceptable defense, and looks like one of the top ten catchers in baseball right now. For the Pirates, that’s quite an accomplishment – and to their credit, they avoided arbitration by signing him to a three-year extension with a team option for two more years. Unless Doumit misses significant time with injuries, the contract looks like a solid bargain for the Pirates, who are often short on affordable talent that would actually be desirable to other teams.
McLouth signed a three-year extension last week with a one-year option. The 27-year-old smashed 26 home runs and 46 doubles (2nd and 1st among NL CFs, respectively) and trailed only Carlos Beltran and Jerry Hairston in OPS for CFs. While his 20-plus steal speed is apparently not accompanied by any good defensive instincts (he looks bad by more than one statistical measure), going to arbitration may have posed a larger risk than usual: despite the objective truths of McLouth’s defensive shortcomings, managers and coaches were swayed by highlight-reel catches and awarded him with a Gold Glove, and that award would likely help him in arbitration. Considering McLouth was asking for almost $4 million in his first year of arbitration, the extension looks like another nice bargain for the Bucs.
While McLouth and Doumit are the biggest reasons the Pirates might avoid losing 100 games this year, they’re not the only things to like about the franchise; 3B Andy LaRoche, acquired in the Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez three-way trade, has failed miserably in his 111 major-league games, but has a strong minor league track record working for him. LaRoche’s “failure” also includes strong defense, 44 walks to 61 strikeouts, and an astonishing .176 average on balls in play, which suggest that he’s still a very good player – just the recipient of some awful luck so far in his big-league career. With a very good chance to start at third all year, perhaps regular playing time will help him become the hitter he always seemed destined to be.
Weaknesses: Let’s start with the pitching. There may be an argument for SP Paul Maholm to count as a strength, but the Pirates have been down this road before. Zach Duke looked good in his short stint in 2005, Tom Gorzelanny in 2006, and Ian Snell in 2007; right now, the Pirates just have a group of #4 and 5 starter material under 30. Maholm’s 2008 doesn’t bear any markings of a major fluke, but it also wasn’t spectacular enough that he would look like anything more than a #3 on a better team. I like the move to buy out his arbitration years with a three-year extension (with, wisely, a club option) at rates that the 26-year-old would likely have received in arbitration anyway, but the rotation still lacks two or three starters to bump everyone into more appropriate roles.
The bullpen is similarly troubled; while Matt Capps’ 21 saves got him attention from the fantasy crowd and 30-year-old lefty John Grabow rode a .243 BABIP to a career year and trade speculation, there just isn’t much talent in middle relief here. Needless to say, it feels wrong with such a short “weaknesses” section relative to the “strengths” of a team this bad, but with so many options for the Pirates to try throughout the year, it’s next to impossible to even guess the makeup of the bullpen (last year, a startling fourteen pitchers were given at least 10 innings without starting). One thing I’ll say: the team has absolutely nothing to lose by keeping Rule 5 pick Donnie Veal on the roster all year.
While the lineup is clearly deficient, most of Pittsburgh’s starters are justified by their youth or potential. In the middle infield, the team doesn’t even have that going for them. SS Jack Wilson has always been a defense-first kind of player, but his glove isn’t elite enough to justify his continued employment; he was the subject of many rumors at last year’s trading deadline, and I spent a considerable amount of time hoping he wouldn’t end up on the Red Sox. 2B Freddy Sanchez had a big 2006 on the strength of a .344 batting average (and an even more flukish .364 on balls in play) and, for fantasy players, looked like a great commodity thanks to his ability to play second, shortstop, or third. Since then, however, his power and patience have eroded; he managed just 21 walks and 37 extra-base hits in 2008, and his on-base and slugging percentages were worse than those of such light-hitting second basemen as Mark Loretta, Felipe Lopez, and Adam Kennedy. Born within 8 days of each other, Wilson and Sanchez are both 31 years old; there’s little upside to keeping them around at a combined cost exceeding $13 million.
My Stake: This is a bad team, and it will continue to be bad for years to come. But under GM Neal Huntington, they’ve started to turn things around. They added multiple pieces of cheap, majors-ready talent for Bay, including Andy LaRoche. Their barren farm system added a high-upside prospect, Jose Tabata, from the Yankees in exchange for RP Damaso Marte and RF Xavier Nady; the trade wasn’t a huge coup, as one wonders if they could have found more prospects by dealing the players separately, but they did also pick up Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf, who are cheap and resemble acceptable major-league pitchers, in the deal.
This winter saw the odd decision to give Ramon Vazquez, who is unlikely to be more than a spare infielder, a two-year deal, but even that could make sense if he lets them dump the salary of Wilson and/or Sanchez on another team. The signing of LF Eric Hinske to a $1.5 million deal looks quite wise; he could hold his own as the starting left fielder or be of significant value in a platoon with a younger righty bat such as Steve Pearce (but not if fellow lefty Nyjer Morgan gets the job, as was recently reported to be possible, despite Morgan’s unremarkable minor league history and extreme lack of power to go with his speed).
Finally, the team seems to have committed to its better young players, signing smart extensions that will allow the team to keep them around for several more years or trade them and be able to ask for real talent in return.
In short, Huntington has had his setbacks ($1.3 million for RP Tyler Yates; Ronny Paulino for Jason Jaramillo), and isn’t utterly blowing away the competition, but on the balance, he has been a huge step up for a club that has barely resembled a major-league team for well over a decade. As I’ve said, front office intellect alone can’t earn my favor, but it goes a long way that Huntington is openly stat-friendly and has not hesitated to release players (with the exception of the execrable middle infield tandem) signed by his predecessor who were no longer contributing to the team. The Pirates are the biggest ground-up rebuilding project I’ve seen, and while that means my rooting won’t be rewarded for a while, it’s exciting to see a GM who now looks bold enough to lead them through that long process.
‘09 Predictions: This is a pretty pathetic ballclub right now. There’s plenty of upside to more than a few of their players, and Huntington looks to be moving the franchise in the right direction, but this is not going to be a short rebuilding project like Andrew Friedman’s work with the Rays; without even the benefit of some strong incumbent prospects, the Pirates are looking at several more seasons of futility. I can’t give them anything past my prediction floor of 70 wins; the best they can hope for in 2009 would be a strong draft and enough capable major leaguers to keep the team’s better prospects from accruing service time. Odds are that few, if any, players from this season’s edition will stick around until the Bucs get to 85 wins, but if ownership is patient, Huntington has thus far given indications that he’s one of the league’s best GMs, even though he seemed a little too tentative before this offseason’s extensions. If he continues to make the franchise his own by making sound deals with some of his infielders, I could see the Pirates moving up another spot next year.
‘08 rooting hierarchy vi: i appreciate the best; i’m settling for less
March 29, 2008 at 11:11 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: A's, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Rays
Making my self-imposed nightly deadlines for this series has been (unnecessarily) tedious, but I must confess that intensive list-making and element-of-list-analyzing is quite fun; perhaps this will inspire me to finally work up a list of my favorite Zevon songs or some such undertaking.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates 79.31% unweighted; 90.06% weighted (100/80/71.43)
Last year: #21. 68-94, 6th in NL Central
In 2008: It’s amazing what a little pandering will do. I’ve wanted Neal Huntington to succeed as a GM since he showed himself to be über-geeky instead of claiming, for instance, that each player is different and that using statistics is a misleading, inaccurate method of player evaluation. The Pirates have been rather quiet this offseason, so it’s tough to say whether Huntington has a sound plan or if he’s just trying to get the attention of a growing niche of fans. Thus far, however, the club has seemed more than willing to trade away and release some of its more expendable, redundant players, so I’m hopeful that Huntington will be similarly liberal in his trade policy in order to restock the farm system.
Prediction: 74-88; 4th in NL Central
6. Arizona Diamondbacks 82.76% unweighted; 85.86% weighted (75/100/71.43)
Last year: #4. 90-72, 1st in NL West, lost NLCS
In 2008: The Diamondbacks continue to be one of the brightest organizations in the game, and should be competitive again this season… except they should actually outscore their opponents for a change. I was rather surprised by how many young players the team surrendered in a trade for starter Dan Haren, and how few they received for closer Jose Valverde. Still, there’s a lot of talent on the roster and in the front office alike; my greatest complaint about the D-backs remains their hard-to-explain 2007 run and the resultant hype, which too often bordered on sabermetrics-bashing.
Prediction: 84-78; 3rd in NL West
5. Tampa Bay Rays 87.59% unweighted; 80.31% weighted (75/82.22/93.75)
Last year: #7. 66-96, 5th in AL East
In 2008: In the well-funded AL East, the Rays are going to have a hard time winning a playoff spot. But considering how quickly GM Andrew Friedman has stocked the team with quality prospects and signed young talent to long-term deals, maybe the Rays can actually challenge the Red Sox and Yankees in coming years. The signing of OF Cliff Floyd was rather inexplicable, given the team’s existing outfield surplus, but the Rays more than compensated with two very nice trades over the winter.
The big headline was the trade of talented but temperamental Delmon Young for the Twins’ SP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett. Garza, while overrated by ERA in 2007, is a 24-year-old with plenty of potential; Bartlett is a defensive asset in his prime. But the Rays also made a quieter acquisition, as alluded to in my write-up of the Braves: Willy Aybar will start the year at third base in the place of Evan Longoria, and was acquired (with a middle-infield prospect, no less) for a potential mediocre lefty specialist. Considering the circumstances and history of the Tampa Bay franchise, Friedman may be leading the most impressive organizational turnaround I have ever seen.
Prediction: 85-77; 3rd in AL East
4. Oakland A’s 88.28% unweighted; 85.87% weighted (100/76/93.75)
Last year: #5. 76-86, 3rd in AL West
In 2008: Going into the 2008 season, the A’s have only made one big error: they gave up on the 2008 season. After a disappointing 2007, Oakland had some reason to doubt its competiveness; the season had been plagued with injuries that served as reminders that the roster wasn’t getting any younger, and there was a decent argument to rebuild rather than hope the Angels faltered or the AL East beat up on itself and vacated a wild card spot (the rebuilding argument is even stronger since the team would probably like to break in their new ballpark with a good team by 2010). While I don’t expect them to contend in ‘08, I wouldn’t be stunned to see them again torn between a fire sale and a push for the playoffs.
While I still question whether the A’s should have moved into a rebuilding phase, it’s hard to complain, because they have executed that rebuilding very well. The team opted for bulk, getting six players from Arizona, including three young hitters and a possible member of the 2008 rotation, in exchange for SP Dan Haren and reliever Connor Robertson; for OF Nick Swisher, they picked up Opening Day CF Ryan Sweeney along with two decent pitching prospects. Billy Beane’s “pick up underrated young players” strategy still works, as he was willing to pay most of the essentially washed-up OF Mark Kotsay’s contract in order to get reliever Joey Devine from the Braves (instead of paying the whole contract and not getting anything; this is similar to the aforementioned willingness of Neal Huntington to take a financial hit in the best long-term interests of the club, and knowing when to cut one’s losses is particularly commendable in low-payroll clubs).
Prediction: 79-83; 3rd in AL West
2007 rooting hierarchy iii: i’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me?
March 28, 2007 at 3:21 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Blue Jays, Bob Wickman, Braves, Giants, Gil Meche, J.P. Ricciardi, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, Ted Lilly
Today’s entry is a painfully tedious one: the below-average teams for whom I don’t see any reason to dislike.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates I have been reminded that I’m allowed to harbor some antipathy for an unconsummated Nate Cornejo/Mike Gonzalez trade that I overheard while at an Arizona Fall League game. But harboring Pirates antipathy is like holding a grudge against Dennis Kucinich or something – they’re too far from any sort of relevance to waste any thought.
20. Seattle Mariners David and Buck both see this as baseball’s third-least competent organization. It’s hard to disagree. But the rooting hierarchy isn’t about competence – the Mariners’ pitifulness, combined with a likable city and a few likable players, gets them all the way to the 33rd percentile.
19. San Francisco Giants Perhaps the ultimate case of likability prevailing in the face of incompetence, and almost entirely for city-based reasons. The players certainly aren’t favorites, and the ballpark, while scenic, isn’t an absolute great. But I just love San Francisco and, by extension, the team avoids being any lower. They sadly did allow the Cubs to sign SP Ted Lilly, so the dream of a Lilly-Cain double-header tandem and Veronica Mars promotion seems dead. It’s fair to say I have different dreams than, say, Gandhi.
18. Toronto Blue Jays What can I say about GM J.P. Ricciardi? Check that: what can I say about J.P. Ricciardi that isn’t a profanity? A former disciple of A’s GM Billy Beane, one expects stat-geekiness and competence. Instead, one gets flashes of genius (signing SPs Tomo Ohka and John Thomson to bargain contracts in an inflated market) in a record of horrible decisions (releasing Thomson in favor of proven failure Josh Towers, hugely overpaying the soon-past-peak Vernon Wells).
17. Atlanta Braves On organizational competence alone, one has to concede the Braves should be in the top 10 – they had a dynasty without overpaying and a solid farm system. But memories of their 1995 World Series triumph over the Indians remain painful, and more recently, they are using Bob Wickman, their third-best reliever, in what is assumed to be the most important bullpen role. “Begrudging respect” is the name of the game, though, as they also signed SP Mark Redman to a spectacularly small contract for what should be solid #4-5 starting.
16. Kansas City Royals Perhaps the icon of “too useless to dislike,” new Royals GM Dayton Moore has not done much to make me expect a turnaround, and gave SP Gil Meche one of the most mind-boggling contracts I have ever seen. It wasn’t an easy mistake to make – Meche is easily the worst signing of the winter when we factor in the “he’s terrible” consensus of stats and reputation. But still, the team has a scenic ballpark and is somewhat lovable in its lameness.
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