old habits die hard

July 5, 2009 at 3:16 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
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Because roster news is still coming in as I write this, expect All-Star thoughts sometime during the week or in next weekend’s entry.

Completely Acceptable Move of the Week: Since more than 30% of my regular readership hails from Cleveland, I feel I should address this week’s swap of minor league pitchers Winston Abreu and John Meloan. Meloan was sent to Tampa Bay (with cash considerations) for the waived Abreu. While he’s not yet 25, Meloan’s potential seems limited to me; as a starter, he struggled with his control, but he has not shown the dominance one would want at AAA from a reliever. Abreu is something of a mirror image: at 32, his future is somewhat limited and swift decline could always lurk right around the corner. Yet in recent years, his work at AAA in several organizations has been impressive, with more than a strikeout an inning and decent control since 2005. The one concern seems to be the long ball, which plagued him in his longest stint in the big leagues. Still, for a team like the Indians, I think his upside is worth the solid-but-unspectacular potential of Meloan; while he won’t save the relief corps this year, Cleveland could have a nice weapon in 2010, whether to set up or trade.

Overrated and Underrated Players of the Week: A lot has been made of the Nyjer Morgan trade, including analysis that is, at best, irrelevant, and possibly dead wrong. Morgan’s defense is his only asset; whether it’s awesome or slightly above average is a matter of one’s source. FanGraphs provides UZR numbers that make him look exceptional, but THT’s numbers from Baseball Info Solutions give a picture of a below-average left fielder with one slightly positive year in center. Because defensive metrics are still far from universal, we must evaluate Morgan’s value as a hitter, and that’s where the Nationals’ error (aside from surrendering Joel Hanrahan for the low-upside Sean Burnett) becomes clear. The ever-popular blind comparison:

Player A: .283/.348/.371 in major league career; .300/.357/.366, 70 SB in 126 games at AAA
Player B: .235/.337/.382 in major league career; .293/.387/.486, 37 HR in 313 games at AAA

Both of these players are 29 with strong defensive reputations but more uncertain statistics. Player A is Morgan, for whom the Nationals downgraded their bullpen and gave up the potential of Lastings Milledge; Player B is the severely underrated Ryan Langerhans, who was traded from Washington for the limited talents of Mike Morse. At best, these are two players of comparable value, and there is a very strong case to be made that Langerhans’ superior numbers in the minors mean he should be projected as a far better hitter. Morgan’s flashy speed, however, created the perception that he was a far more desirable commodity, and as such one-dimensional players can decline quickly, he could fall from his current peak value rapidly for a Nationals club that ought to be building for the future. Langerhans, on the other hand, already has three doubles and as many walks with his new club, and I will again praise Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik for the cheap acquisition.

Mistake of the Week: On the other end of the Morgan trade, the Pirates upgraded their bullpen and added a young outfielder who at least has a tiny chance of being with Pittsburgh’s next contending team. They absolutely come out ahead in the deal, but GM Neal Huntington still continued to destroy my faith in him this week. OF/1B Eric Hinske hasn’t hit for much power this year, but he has the best OBP of his career. Making just $1.5 million in 2009, he is a nice commodity who, if the Pirates insisted on trading him, could have brought in a small piece of Pittsburgh’s future. Instead, continuing with his tradition of seeking non-prospects, Huntington settled for Eric Fryer (23 years old and struggling to a .250/.333/.344 line at High-A) and Casey Erickson (two days younger than Fryer, he’s posted respectable numbers on the mound but never been above Single A). In acquiring these two non-prospects (or “notspects”) from the Yankees, the Pirates also agreed to pay $400,000 of Hinske’s remaining contract. Moves like this force me to reconsider my belief that the Pirates are moving towards a .500 season any time in the foreseeable future.

Why Do You Still Have A Job? The Texas Rangers have plenty of hitters, particularly in the outfield. Despite solid 2009 campaigns, David Murphy and Andruw Jones are still splitting playing time, and when Josh Hamilton returns, Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz will be competing for time as well. But with Hank Blalock seemingly entrenched as DH, there’s just no spot for these guys. After all, Blalock can’t possibly move to first base, where–

Oh. Well then. That changes everything. Someone’s just reminded me that 1B Chris Davis is not, in fact, repeating his 2008 campaign, wherein he slugged .549 and looked like a potential superstar for the Rangers. Rather, he has seen his production fall off a cliff; with a .201/.256/.417 line, he has the worst on-base percentage of any first baseman with more than 70 at bats. After striking out 88 times in 295 at bats last year, he’s racked up an MLB-leading 113 Ks in just 254 at bats this year; with just 17 walks, this is unacceptable. His failure is not a matter of bad luck, either: when he actually puts the ball in play, Davis is hitting a perfectly normal .286. In any other year, one could defend the Rangers for simply having nothing to lose in trying to build Davis’ confidence by standing behind him; for most other teams, one could claim that his 15 home runs would be too hard to replace. But for the 2009 Rangers, the AL West is winnable, and the club’s bench offers better options than Davis. If the team doesn’t make Blalock its full-time first baseman soon, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves if they come up a few games short of the Angels for a playoff berth.

Why Don’t You Still Have A Job? They say beggars can’t be choosers, but the Nationals seem to think they’re in the position to ditch perfectly adequate relievers. They designated Jesus Colome for assignment, and considering his most superficial stats (8.40 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) and the fact that the Nationals clearly undervalue him, I don’t see anyone bothering to pay much in trade. Yet in a season that clearly is heading nowhere, Washington is giving service time to the mildly intriguing young arm of Craig Stammen instead of sticking with Colome, whose ugly results are belied by his underlying numbers. His hit rate is up due to a .407 average on balls in play, and his 18.5% line drive rate is the lowest it has been in five years. He was better in June (two walks all month) than in May, and only allowed his first home run on Friday. His walk rate is far superior to that of teammates Julian Tavarez and Ron Villone’s, and as they youngest of the trio is the least likely to completely implode.

I have no idea what the Nationals expected from Colome; did they think Jesus would be their bullpen’s savior? He should have been seen as a decent depth option for a lousy team, and behind some unlucky breaks, that’s exactly what he has been. While he is certainly not a pitcher that a contending team should want, he’s far too respectable (with a 3.58 FIP) to be kicked off of the Washington Nationals.

texas burning

February 16, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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18. Texas Rangers (48.04% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 8
Added: RPs Derrick Turnbow, Eddie Guardado, and Brendan Donnelly; OF Andruw Jones; SS Omar Vizquel
Lost: DH Milton Bradley; C Gerald Laird; IF Ramon Vazquez; RPs Kameron Loe, Jamey Wright, and Wes Littleton
Strengths: After trading Laird, the Rangers decided to hang onto their remaining group of catchers – Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, and Max Ramirez – for the time being. This should give them fantastic depth, despite that none of the players is a sure thing as a top catcher – Ramirez may not have a long-term future behind the plate, and Teagarden’s strikeout rates in the minors are a significant area of concern. Saltalamacchia is the youngest of the group, but may also have the lowest ceiling in terms of power hitting. The team seems to prefer Teagarden, who brings superior defense, but even if his plate performance disappoints and they switch to Salty’s more reliable bat, the availability of such an impressive young tandem is a point that mustn’t be overlooked.

The team’s young talent is also represented by 26-year-old 2B Ian Kinsler, who is one of the game’s best second basemen but missed time in 2008 due to a sports hernia, and 27-year-old CF Josh Hamilton, whose 2008 may best be remembered for his seemingly endless offensive onslaught in the Home Run Derby. Less established but still impressive is soon-to-be-23-year-old 1B Chris Davis, who hit 17 home runs in just 295 at-bats last year. He also benefited from a .351 average on balls in play and has a considerable tendency to strike out, but his power and age make him a nice property for the Rangers. Also, the team finally appears to be open to starting RF Nelson Cruz, 28, who has terrorized AAA pitching for the last few years.
Weaknesses: The team is looking at an offensive black hole at shortstop, whether the starting job goes to highly-touted prospect Elvis Andrus, spring training invitee Omar Vizquel, or a less expected internal option like German Duran or Joaquin Arias. To accommodate the apparently inevitable promotion of Andrus, a defensively-respected 20-year-old who would be badly overmatched against even AAA pitching, last year’s shortstop Michael Young will move to third, where his declining bat will be even more conspicuous.

Despite its shortcomings, however, the lineup still looks fairly strong. The same cannot be said for the pitching staff. A perennial problem for the Rangers, it doesn’t appear likely to make any major strides this year. The team was dealt a substantial blow when reliever Joaquin Benoit suffered a torn rotator cuff, and after an abysmal 2008, he went under the knife and looks unlikely to pitch again till late in 2009. The bullpen is bad enough that spring training invitees Turnbow (who hasn’t been effective since 2005), Donnelly (who doesn’t look recovered after 2007 Tommy John surgery), and returning Ranger Guardado (38 and himself a shell of what he once was) should have every chance to win spots among a group of walk-prone relievers.

As for the rotation, the team hasn’t added anyone since last year, and their four leaders in innings put up combined 2008 featuring 1.2 HR per 9 innings to 5.8 strikeouts, with a WHIP of 1.51 (and, if one insists on knowing, a 5.09 ERA). Even considering their hitter-friendly ballpark, there isn’t a pitcher here who should be higher than #3 in a decent rotation (and lefty Matt Harrison’s HR, BB, and K rates were all worse on the road). There’s little reason to think 2008 will see any real improvement to the starting, and with an even weaker bullpen, it could be a long year.
My Stake: The front office has made some very poor moves – most notably the five-year extension given to Michael Young (which will pay him $16 million through his age 36 season, even as his offensive output is already in decline) and the trade that sent the Padres SP Chris Young and 1B Adrian Gonzalez for reliever Akinori Otsuka, SP Adam Eaton, and “prospect” Billy Killian. On top of those mistakes, management seemed to wait for too long to give Nelson Cruz his chance. Still, they’re not without their smart moves, such as acquiring Hamilton for SP Edinson Volquez, whose breakout 2008 was unforeseeable and still not as valuable, after a dropoff in the second half, as Hamilton’s output. With a roughly average front office and no other particularly interesting factors, their only appeal comes from their young position players and their historic lack of World Series appearances.
‘09 Predictions: The team made a nice low-risk pickup with OF Andruw Jones, who will make $500,000 if he makes the team and could earn up to another million in incentives. I’m not that optimistic about him, but unless performance-enhancing drugs were involved in his peak years, he’s fallen off a cliff much faster than could have been expected since he turned 30; it seems that there’s nowhere to go but up, and the potential reward vastly outweighs the risk of the minor-league contract.

Regardless of what Jones does, the team is going to struggle badly with bad pitchers in a great hitter’s park. The offense has some standouts, but enough question marks – not to mention the certain void at shortstop – that it won’t be enough to make up for the pitching. With a smarter Seattle team and an improved Oakland club in the division, I’m going to put the Rangers at just 73 wins and hope that breakout seasons from Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden don’t make me look too foolish.

‘08 rooting hierarchy v: i am rotten to my core if they’re to be believed

March 28, 2008 at 11:19 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
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The rooting hierarchy hasn’t clustered with any real themes until tonight: guilty pleasure teams! Also: I’m inordinately pleased that I got to use a Garbage lyric for a title.

12. Washington Nationals 63.45% unweighted; 65.41% weighted (60/72.73/57.14)
Last year: #11. 73-89, 4th in NL East
In 2008: The Nationals don’t do much right, but are in an interesting situation: they’re so far from a serious contender that short contracts to aging veterans don’t do much damage. Case in point: the fact that the team’s catching situation was ugly enough that Paul Lo Duca is an acceptable one-year stopgap. The signing of Aaron Boone and the team’s dearth of prospects is more representative of the fact that GM Jim Bowden has a long way to go before he has a decent franchise, while the release of SP John Patterson is a sad reminder that even though the club picked up young outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes at very low costs, the Nats aren’t particularly competent. Still, by a combination of being pathetic and having a sabermetrics-friendly manager in Manny Acta, the Nationals defy their front office’s merits and earn a soft spot in my heart.
Prediction: 71-90; 5th in NL East

11. Florida Marlins 64.14% unweighted; 67.61% weighted (65/72.73/57.14)
Last year: #6. 71-91, 5th in NL East
In 2008: The Marlins got some nice players in the Miguel Cabrera trade (though it could be argued that they would have gotten more by trading Dontrelle Willis separately), but it’s apparent that unless ownership changes hands, they need to get used to trading away their stars. With a shoestring budget, the team has to play still-developing prospects and hope that in a couple of years, everything breaks right during the same season. To a casual baseball fan living in Miami, this state of affairs would be understandably miserable. To a devoted lover of the game, it’s actually an entertaining cycle to watch, and it’s hard to root against a team in such difficult circumstances.
Prediction: 73-89; 4th in NL East

10. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 70.34% unweighted; 62.85% weighted (46.67/70/75)
Last year: #22. 94-68, 1st in AL West, lost ALDS
In 2008: I used to think that Bill Stoneman was a good GM and his staff just fell short at player evaluation sometimes. But the new GM, former Director of Player Development Tony Reagins, seems to have a far better handle on things than his predecessor. The team has been fairly quiet, but Reagins showed he wasn’t afraid to shake things up when he traded popular shortstop Orlando Cabrera for starting pitcher Jon Garland. Garland’s acquisition was a smart move at the time, but looks even bigger now that Kelvim Escobar’s shoulder problems are flaring up. The team has enough farm depth that, should Escobar miss the season, they may be able to find another arm. Even if they can’t, they’ve got a better-than-good chance at making the postseason.
The signing of Torii Hunter is an interesting point of debate, but while everyone expected him to be overpaid, he received a fairly reasonable deal given the market (certainly not bad compared to other big center fielder contracts) and helped the team address an easily improved area (Reagins has thus far failed to complete the process, however; he has kept surplus outfielders Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera). With that in mind, I like what I’ve seen from Reagins enough that I’m finally willing to give up the antipathy I’ve held for years based on the team’s love of small ball and rivalry with the A’s.
Prediction: 90-72; 1st in AL West, lose ALDS

9. Texas Rangers 71.03% unweighted; 65.05% weighted (53.33/70/75)
Last year: #14. 75-87, 4th in AL West
In 2008: When I think of divisions with a lot of likable teams, the AL West doesn’t usually spring to mind. But if I’ve come to like the Angels as much as I have, the Rangers have to rank even higher. While they certainly have pitching problems, their offseason was rather productive (aside from the inexplicable signing of 1B Ben Broussard). They added SPs John Patterson and Jason Jennings, each recovering from elbow surgery, for fairly inexpensive rotation help, and extended reliever Joaquin Benoit’s contract; hours ago, they traded a walk-prone A-ball pitcher for reliever Dustin Nippert. An overhaul of the outfield included signing Milton Bradley (like the Cubs and Kosuke Fukudome, this hurt me as a Padres fan) and trading a pair of expendable, unremarkable pitchers to the Reds for 27-year-old CF Josh Hamilton, who should be one of the AL’s best center fielders if he stays healthy. The team needs a lot more pitching to even contend for a wildcard, but GM Jon Daniels is starting to live up to his potential.
Prediction: 78-84; 4th in AL West

8. Atlanta Braves 75.86% unweighted; 84.58% weighted (100/72.73/71.43)
Last year: #17. 84-78, 3rd in NL East
In 2008: The Braves’ offseason was much more inconsistent than most of these upper half teams’; Atlanta got a nice return when trading overpaid, free-agent-at-the-end-of-the-season Edgar Renteria, and avoided any particularly foolish signings. On the other hand, they traded away a pair of solid major leaguers (Willy Aybar, Joey Devine) and got essentially nothing (for Devine, they added replacement-level CF Mark Kotsay, who should not be on a contending team) in return. Still, I’ve spent too long forgiving the 1995 team and getting past the “dynasty” hype to let a few missteps stop me from liking a franchise that has lost 75 games only twice since 1991; I would love to see them make a return to the postseason. From the “don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone” category, my fondness for the Braves is growing as TBS’ coverage of the team wanes; I have a surprising amount of memories related to the national TV coverage of a team I wasn’t rooting for.
Prediction: 88-74; 2nd in NL East, lose NLDS

2007 rooting hierarchy iv: so satisfied i’m on my way

March 29, 2007 at 11:54 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a Comment
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I am absolutely loving this new blogging method – I think I’m going to have to start doing more stuff in week-long series instead of pithy little entries. That’s right – Democratic Primary Candidate Countdown Week, The Physicality Scouting One-Year Blogfest, and someday, Music Evaluative Index Marathon. It almost makes me want to have more interests for giant blog series. I suppose I could also do week-long tributes to certain TV shows. Send more series ideas to:
Comments Section
c/o This Blog
Right Here, LJ
If we use your idea on the series of tubes, you’ll win a brief, passing mention! Now, on with the countdown.

15. Philadelphia Phillies The Phils took a significant fall from 2006. First and foremost, I think, is my unwillingness to forgive them for giving the Yankees OF Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle. Is it fair to put the blame on Philly for the Yanks murdering the Red Sox in that five-game sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s nonetheless there. And one when looks at Philly’s offseason moves – signing SP Adam Eaton and 3B Wes Helms to likely useless contracts – it doesn’t help matters. On the other hand, they did help with the White Sox’s inexplicable mission to get rid of SP Freddy Garcia, so here they are in the upper half.
14. Texas Rangers I don’t feel great about HR-prone SP Brandon McCarthy going to a HR-prone ballpark, but he was better than the minor leaguers sent to Chicago. That aside, GM Jon Daniels has yet to really make a name for himself. There’s still hope that a young guy (he’s not even 30) will be more statistically progressive than the average GM, but hope and ageism don’t justify a higher spot than this
13. New York Mets There was a time when the Mets were my favorite non-local club thanks in large part to my hatred of the Braves (and the awesomeness of Edgardo Alfonzo). That time has passed, but there’s still a lot to like about the Mets. Omar Minaya has performed well enough that maybe my defense of his Expos tenure was justified – give the man the resources to sign big names, and he’ll pick the right ones. Sure, there are also horribly overrated players like RF Shawn Green and C Paul Lo Duca, but the Mets balance those out with the bargain of 2B Jose Valentin. The one systemic weakness I see is Minaya’s evaluation of relief pitching, but that’s not reason to bump them any further down.
12. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has a way of getting greatness for nothing – most notably Rule 5 draftee SP Johan Santana and the trade of C AJ Pierzynski for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano. For these two transactions alone, he deserves a lot of credit. Of course, those are balanced by such signings as 2006’s 3B Tony Batista, who had no business on a major-league club. Still, it’s hard to argue with the Twins’ supply of quality young players. A sentimental factor here: C Joe Mauer’s presence on my fantasy team makes me like him just a bit more than his awesomeness merits.
11. Washington Nationals Okay, this ranking is pretty much insane. GM Jim Bowden is a “tools”-obsessed guy who has benefited largely from ripping off inferior GMs. So my rooting for the Nats really comes down to one thing: manager Manny Acta is willing to use evidence to guide his decisions. This shouldn’t be a distinguishing factor, but a manager coming out and basically citing run expectancies and properly devaluing the stolen base is almost unprecedented. Of course, the team has miserable starting pitching and isn’t going to win 80 games, but I still deign Acta worthy of my praise.
10. St. Louis Cardinals The defending world champions made some bad decisions this winter – bringing back Mark Mulder? Seriously? – but GM Walt Jocketty also moved to lock up SP Chris Carpenter through 2012, which means he’ll join 1B Albert Pujols as the core of the team for years to come. That alone gives the club probably 60 wins to build on, so as long as they keep finding undervalued talent like Adam Kennedy to fill out the roster and minimize the Mulder-type signings, the Cards should continue to be a .500 club even if they don’t make great moves.

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