summer’s killing us

August 9, 2009 at 8:51 pm | In Baseball | 1 Comment
Tags: , , , , , ,

The AL East slant on this week’s entry is a bit surprising; the futile efforts of the Red Sox have reminded me of my passion for all baseball – even non-contending clubs in well-played games – so you’d think I’d be talking more about the Indians’ youth movement or something. But without as many transactions to talk about, and no heart to tear apart a team for starting a lousy player while my favorite club continues to do no better than Nick Green, we’re stuck with a whole lotta Rays.  Oh, and the obvious:

Mistake of the Week: I’ll just get it off my chest and give this award to the entirety of the Red Sox’ second half to date. It’s not just that Boston is 8-13 since the All-Star break, but also the sort of moves they’ve made. Most recently, I’m befuddled by the quick cut of John Smoltz. While his line drive, ground ball, and walk rates are all solid enough, the results haven’t been there for the 42-year-old bigot – whoops, I mean “gutty veteran and sure-fire Hall of Famer!” – and it’s understandable that a struggling club would pull him from the rotation. But team is so desperately in need of a long man that two pitchers have made their 2009 MLB debuts at Yankee Stadium, one of whom was Junichi Tazawa, in his first year of American baseball. Smoltz’ contract pays him by days spent on the 25-man roster, but despite their frugal ways lately, the Red Sox could easily afford $500,000 to keep him around for two more weeks working in mop-up and trying to re-find his stuff. Perhaps they’ll convince him to accept a minor league assignment instead of becoming a free agent, but the way things are going, I’m rather skeptical.

Still, as I write this, the Red Sox have gone 24 straight innings without scoring a run, so it’s not just pitching that’s plaguing what looked like a World Series contender a month ago. I’m not saying that one mediocre bat could change that fact, of course, but it’s tough to look at the team’s struggling shortstops – Jed Lowrie just hit the DL; Nick Green has just two hits in the last 28 days; recent pickup Chris Woodward was on waivers thanks to his abysmal play for the third-place Mariners – and not get even more upset about the hasty dumping of Julio Lugo before Lowrie had even shown any sort of offense at AAA as he recovered from wrist surgery. The only legitimate strike against Lugo was his glove, but for the massive downgrade he is at the plate, Woodward doesn’t offer much in the field himself. At this point, I’d just as soon see minor leaguer Ivan Ochoa, whose weak bat at is at least mitigated by a strong defensive reputation and the potential for a few stolen bases.

The Red Sox are still one of the brighter clubs in baseball, and their recent struggles are largely due to a slumping, injured lineup and Tim Wakefield’s absence from the rotation. But with questionable decisions like not even trying Smoltz in the bullpen, and outright foolish moves like dumping Lugo, it’s fair to say that GM Theo Epstein deserves his share of blame if the Red Sox come up just short this year.

Underrated Cut(s): The way he’s being dumped this week, you’d think there was something wrong with R.J. Swindle. The lefty reliever was cut by the Brewers and claimed by the Rays on Friday, then designated for assignment by Tampa Bay on Saturday. For all the talk about how lefties can keep jobs, Swindle has an unusually tough time FINDING one; while his major league numbers leave much to be desired, he has better than a strikeout per inning at AAA, and an impressively low walk rate. While he isn’t a groundballer, he has been remarkably consistent at keeping the ball in the park throughout his minor league career; the five home runs he’s given up in short time in the majors look more flukish than a true indictment of his talent. Considering has negligible service time, there are a lot of teams who could – and frequently manage to – do a lot worse than giving Swindle a real chance to settle in at the big-league level.

Shrewd Move of the Week: I’ve often felt like pillorying the usually smart Rays for keeping catcher Dioner Navarro around for so long; he’s hit for a staggeringly awful .252 OBP and has seen his defense slip considerably. The offensive deficiencies are partially due to a low BABIP, however, and he’s only 25; it’s hard to argue that such a significant piece of the 2008 AL champions should be entirely out of a job. But the Rays are chasing Boston for a wild card berth, and finding help behind the plate seemed a necessity. To that end, I must commend (and fear) Tampa Bay’s waiver claim on catcher Gregg Zaun, who found himself losing starts in Baltimore as rookie Matt Wieters took over. The Rays might also use him as a backup – at 38, Zaun struggled as an everyday player, but started hitting once his playing time was cut – but he still represents a considerable upgrade to Michel Hernandez and Shawn Riggans, even if he doesn’t get a chance to steal Navarro’s job outright.

Futility of the Week: It wasn’t all that long ago that talked about the Indians picking up a nice AAAA arm in Winston Abreu, but that trade has been completely negated by now. Having given him just three appearances – albeit none of them successful – the Indians cut ties with Abreu, meaning that they had surrendered a half-decent prospect in John Meloan for a one-month rental reliever. Lest one think Abreu is simply not good and teams learn that after having him, the Rays quickly signed Abreu, landing him right back in AAA Durham. The next day, they designated Meloan for assignment; it remains to be seen whether another team has interest in him, but it would be fitting if he could return to Cleveland and render the whole affair a complete waste of time for everyone involved.

summer’s here and the time is right

June 28, 2009 at 7:23 pm | In Baseball | 2 Comments
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

My off week has left me rejuvenated and able to do some of the most non-Soxy baseball writing I’ve done in months. Here’s to being well-rested!

Underrated Addition: Seattle acquired AAAA-type outfielder Ryan Langerhans from Washington for more-certainly-a-minor-league-bat utility type Mike Morse. Langerhans is the older of the pair, but his AAA numbers certainly suggest he could merit a chance with a big-league club. With Endy Chavez injured, the Mariners have an outfield opening the Nationals were unlikely to see; if Langerhans can post a .350 OBP with a little pop while platooning with Wladimir Balentien, the M’s may end up with a better lineup than they had with the speed-oriented Chavez. For the Nationals, Morse may get a chance at second thanks to lousy years from Anderson Hernandez and Ronnie Belliard, but he’s no better than a fallback option for an awful club; Seattle clearly comes out ahead in this swap. A final interesting note on the trade: a recent fan chat floated the idea, and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik clearly liked it.

Schadenfreude of the Week, Non-Governor Division: I’m no longer worried that the Royals’ mistake-riddled offseason could be rewarded with a playoff berth on the merits of a few pitchers, but I’m still taking a bit of delight at how strongly one of those moves has come back to bite Kansas City. Former perpetually-whining Red Sox OF Coco Crisp will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this week, making his expensive contract (including an $8 million option for 2010) all the more ridiculous an acquisition for the Royals. The pitcher the Royals traded for Crisp this winter, Ramon Ramirez, is quietly having a very weak season by his standards, but with injuries and poor years starting to take their toll on KC’s staff, it’s hard not to think they’d take Ramirez back in a heartbeat. For context, the Royals’ pitching staff has become so thin that Bruce Chen has finally made it back to the majors. He’s earned that shot with solid work at AAA, but a simple fact remains: he’s Bruce Chen.

Why Do You Still Have A Job? I like the Reds. No longer under the reign of a grossly incompetent GM, they’ve started making moves that look shrewd to me, and contrasted against an NL Central otherwise devoid of wisdom, they look even better.

But Willy Taveras was a mistake when the Reds signed him, and now the worst-case scenario is playing out with a $4 million salary looming in 2010. Taveras has never been a good hitter, but the bottom has truly fallen out this season: his .276 on-base percentage is inexcusable, and his .288 slugging percentage is similarly awful. He’s managed just one home run and 14 walks this year, striking out 41 times. The numbers are no worse than Cincinnati SS Alex Gonzalez, but Gonzalez has a poor BABIP in his defense, contributes more in the field, isn’t leading off, and is an indictment of the prior front office regime. The Reds also don’t have an indisputably better option than Gonzalez (words to live by: no matter how bad things get, Paul Janish is never the answer) in the infield.

In deferring to Taveras’ high salary and speedy reputation, however, Cincy is benching not one, but three superior hitters. Chris Dickerson has a strong defensive reputation and the numbers to back it up; Laynce Nix has a lousy on-base percentage but has slugged quite a bit, and still makes fewer outs than Taveras; Jonny Gomes has made the most of minimal playing time and shown decent patience as well as a bit of pop. At the very least, Dickerson and Nix should both start versus righties, something the Reds seem to be doing recently. But against southpaws, Taveras may be worse than either lefty hitter, and under no circumstances should he lead off. Knowing how Reds manager Dusty Baker loves speedy ballplayers, I fear the front office needs to take the Taveras option off his hands entirely if he’s ever going to avoid 500 at-bats.

Mistake of the Week: Consider two young pitchers:

Player A, at 26, has likely reached his potential: a back-of-the-rotation arm with mediocre stuff, he relies on stellar control (averaging less than two walks per nine innings since 2007). He moved steadily through the minors and experienced success at each level before being promoted, and his home run problems this year seem flukish, considering he’s posting the best ground ball rate of his short career.

Player B, 23, has all kinds of “stuff.” Scouts love his potential, the media salivates every time he takes the mound, and even a statistically minded fan can understand his appeal. Yet the results have never been there – he racked up plenty of strikeouts as he sped through the minors, but frequently accompanied them with walks or home runs. In the majors, he has worse HR problems than Player A and a lower ground ball rate, and he’s walking 6 batters per 9 innings (which results in some short starts that tax a mediocre bullpen). While I’m loath to use clichés like “learn to pitch,” he is by all appearances very raw, and could benefit immensely from more time in the minors to convert his talent into results.

Both players are starters for Tampa Bay, and when Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list, one of them had to go. The Rays optioned down Player A, Andy Sonnanstine, keeping Player B, David Price; it’s a decision that I find hard to defend, particularly considering that Sonnanstine has pitched better lately while Price has had just one start (May 30 against Minnesota) that I would call “good.” The Rays seem like one of the smarter organizations in baseball, so perhaps they’re hoping that Price will increase his trade value by pitching in the majors. But if they’re simply betting on the guy who throws hard to be better than the guy who throws strikes for the rest of 2009, I think they’re making a dreadful mistake (and as a Sox fan, I thank them for it).

Question of the Week: Who’s the Player To Be Named Later? Allow me to preface this evaluation of yesterday’s trade with the following: Mark DeRosa is overrated. He’s a good player, sure, and he’s turned it on after a sluggish, low BABIP-plagued start. But he’s 34, and while he can play many positions, the defensive jack of all trades is a master of… well, not many. There’s value in his versatility, sure, but it looks pretty clear that 2008 was the peak of his career.

DeRosa, however, has been hyped for most of the season, particularly since it became clear that the Cleveland Indians were going nowhere in 2009, and was a rumored target for numerous teams due to his versatility. Trading him to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later saves the extremely “frugal” Indians over two million dollars in a non-contending season, so it’s far from a disaster.

But Perez, even in the weaker National League, has had serious walk problems and, like ex-Cardinal Anthony Reyes before him, struggled with the long ball. He’s not ready to help the Tribe yet, and he’s far from a sure thing to turn into a valuable reliever down the road. Perez looks far more like a secondary player in a deal for someone as coveted as DeRosa, so if the player to be named turns out to be a low minor leaguer or mediocre upper-level guy, the Indians will be in grave danger of slipping even farther down my rooting hierarchy.

stuck around st. petersburg when i saw it was a time for a change

February 7, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
Tags: ,

27. Tampa Bay Rays (16.69% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 29
Added: DH Pat Burrell; RPs Joe Nelson, Brian Shouse, and Lance Cormier; OFs Gabe Kapler and Matt Joyce
Lost: SP Edwin Jackson; OFs Rocco Baldelli, Eric Hinske, and Jonny Gomes; RP Trever Miller; DH Cliff Floyd
Strengths: To keep the Stones references coming, time is on their side.  The one-time Devil Rays have one of the youngest rotations in baseball, with all five starters under team control for at least four more seasons.  The rotation is dominant in its depth; even though rookie David Price’s home run rate at AA Montgomery is a point of concern, he looks to be a strong fifth starter.

The lineup is similarly young, albeit with less certain contract statuses.  Burrell gives the team a huge upgrade from Floyd at DH, joining 1B Carlos Pena, 3B Evan Longoria, and CF B.J. Upton to form the core of a potent lineup.  The only real uncertainty is how the playing time in right field will be divided; acquiring the lefty-hitting Joyce seems a vote of little confidence in Gabe Gross as a platoon partner for right-handed Kapler.

Whatever the case, the Rays’ outfield defense should be another major strength, despite the harsh criticism that the usually excellent-fielding Gross received during the playoffs. Whoever ends up the fifth outfielder should join an excellent bench including infielders Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar.
Weaknesses: There aren’t many, but reliever Troy Percival could be the most glaring problem with the team.  The 39-year-old was a major liability last year as the team’s closer, allowing nine home runs and 27 walks to his 38 strikeouts.  Because of his veteran status, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get the first shot at the closer’s job again, but in fact, he barely merits a roster spot among the deep ranks of relief talent collected by the Rays.

The talented relief corps is a motley crew, comprised largely of veterans and castoffs, and could very well remain a strength.  But it is also the most prone to injuries, with Nelson, Percival, and Grant Balfour having histories of DL stints, and Shouse joining the team at the age of 40. While the Rays have the depth to absorb a relief injury or two, the greatest hope for Rays non-fans would seem to be some regression from Balfour and J.P. Howell, coupled with injuries that force lesser talents like Cormier, Rule 5 draftee Derek Rodriguez, and Juicin’ James Houser into substantial roles.
My Stake: Good lord, this team annoys me.  There is no question in my mind that GM Andrew Friedman leads one of the smartest front offices in baseball, and their sabermetric wisdom is to be commended.  Yet my love of analytical techniques does not conquer all; the Rays are simply infuriating on so many levels that it’s impossible for my left brain to win any internal debate about the club.  From the exuberant homerism of TV play-by-play man (and former Yankee announcer) Dewayne Staats and the hideous dome (and the cowbells therein), to the sabermetrics-cause-damaging Dr. Stat and manager Joe Maddon’s “inspirational speaker” vibe, there is simply too much wrong with this team for my respect for Friedman to matter much.
‘09 Predictions: As good as the Rays were in 2008, it’s hard not to worry about them as a third contender in the AL East.  Still, there are plenty of good signs.  Dan Wheeler’s success was aided by a staggeringly low .195 average on balls in play, a number that figures to correct towards .300 even with a nice defense behind him and make him a considerably less useful option late in games; Percival’s issues were mitigated by posting a .169 BABIP.

From the batters, SS Jason Bartlett’s career .315 BABIP is substantially lower than his .332 2008 line, and C Dioner Navarro’s career .290 seems more reasonable an expectation than .318.  And despite an overall young team, Pena and Balfour will be 31, and 2B Akinori Iwamura 30 – some decline from 2008 levels is a reasonable expectation.  I’m throwing out a guesstimate of 88 wins – a number that represents a solid club that would contend in any other division, but does not pose a certain threat to the Yankees and Red Sox.

‘08 rooting hierarchy vi: i appreciate the best; i’m settling for less

March 29, 2008 at 11:11 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 Comment
Tags: , , ,

Making my self-imposed nightly deadlines for this series has been (unnecessarily) tedious, but I must confess that intensive list-making and element-of-list-analyzing is quite fun; perhaps this will inspire me to finally work up a list of my favorite Zevon songs or some such undertaking. 

7. Pittsburgh Pirates 79.31% unweighted; 90.06% weighted (100/80/71.43)
Last year: #21. 68-94, 6th in NL Central
In 2008: It’s amazing what a little pandering will do. I’ve wanted Neal Huntington to succeed as a GM since he showed himself to be über-geeky instead of claiming, for instance, that each player is different and that using statistics is a misleading, inaccurate method of player evaluation. The Pirates have been rather quiet this offseason, so it’s tough to say whether Huntington has a sound plan or if he’s just trying to get the attention of a growing niche of fans. Thus far, however, the club has seemed more than willing to trade away and release some of its more expendable, redundant players, so I’m hopeful that Huntington will be similarly liberal in his trade policy in order to restock the farm system.
Prediction: 74-88; 4th in NL Central

6. Arizona Diamondbacks 82.76% unweighted; 85.86% weighted (75/100/71.43)
Last year: #4. 90-72, 1st in NL West, lost NLCS
In 2008: The Diamondbacks continue to be one of the brightest organizations in the game, and should be competitive again this season… except they should actually outscore their opponents for a change. I was rather surprised by how many young players the team surrendered in a trade for starter Dan Haren, and how few they received for closer Jose Valverde. Still, there’s a lot of talent on the roster and in the front office alike; my greatest complaint about the D-backs remains their hard-to-explain 2007 run and the resultant hype, which too often bordered on sabermetrics-bashing.
Prediction: 84-78; 3rd in NL West

5. Tampa Bay Rays 87.59% unweighted; 80.31% weighted (75/82.22/93.75)
Last year: #7. 66-96, 5th in AL East
In 2008: In the well-funded AL East, the Rays are going to have a hard time winning a playoff spot. But considering how quickly GM Andrew Friedman has stocked the team with quality prospects and signed young talent to long-term deals, maybe the Rays can actually challenge the Red Sox and Yankees in coming years. The signing of OF Cliff Floyd was rather inexplicable, given the team’s existing outfield surplus, but the Rays more than compensated with two very nice trades over the winter.

The big headline was the trade of talented but temperamental Delmon Young for the Twins’ SP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett. Garza, while overrated by ERA in 2007, is a 24-year-old with plenty of potential; Bartlett is a defensive asset in his prime. But the Rays also made a quieter acquisition, as alluded to in my write-up of the Braves: Willy Aybar will start the year at third base in the place of Evan Longoria, and was acquired (with a middle-infield prospect, no less) for a potential mediocre lefty specialist. Considering the circumstances and history of the Tampa Bay franchise, Friedman may be leading the most impressive organizational turnaround I have ever seen.
Prediction: 85-77; 3rd in AL East

4. Oakland A’s 88.28% unweighted; 85.87% weighted (100/76/93.75)
Last year: #5. 76-86, 3rd in AL West
In 2008: Going into the 2008 season, the A’s have only made one big error: they gave up on the 2008 season. After a disappointing 2007, Oakland had some reason to doubt its competiveness; the season had been plagued with injuries that served as reminders that the roster wasn’t getting any younger, and there was a decent argument to rebuild rather than hope the Angels faltered or the AL East beat up on itself and vacated a wild card spot (the rebuilding argument is even stronger since the team would probably like to break in their new ballpark with a good team by 2010).  While I don’t expect them to contend in ‘08, I wouldn’t be stunned to see them again torn between a fire sale and a push for the playoffs.

While I still question whether the A’s should have moved into a rebuilding phase, it’s hard to complain, because they have executed that rebuilding very well. The team opted for bulk, getting six players from Arizona, including three young hitters and a possible member of the 2008 rotation, in exchange for SP Dan Haren and reliever Connor Robertson; for OF Nick Swisher, they picked up Opening Day CF Ryan Sweeney along with two decent pitching prospects. Billy Beane’s “pick up underrated young players” strategy still works, as he was willing to pay most of the essentially washed-up OF Mark Kotsay’s contract in order to get reliever Joey Devine from the Braves (instead of paying the whole contract and not getting anything; this is similar to the aforementioned willingness of Neal Huntington to take a financial hit in the best long-term interests of the club, and knowing when to cut one’s losses is particularly commendable in low-payroll clubs).
Prediction: 79-83; 3rd in AL West

nothing lasts forever, and we both know hearts can change

November 30, 2007 at 10:09 pm | In Baseball, Politics, Today's Music Sucks | 7 Comments
Tags: , , ,

My apartment is hot, I am nearing the end of the semester and feeling exhausted, and I still haven’t finished the nominee lists for the Space Award Countdowns. I almost didn’t do this. So I guess it’s fitting that November’s “Three Up, Three Down” is riddled with unexpected good and bad things.

Three Up

Rap: An actual conversation with my father: ”…and I hate to say it, but I like the new Wyclef single.” “I was going to mention I heard that yesterday. I kind of liked it.” “The new album drops next week!” Yes, there’s finally a “popular” song that I don’t find annoying as Hades. Lord help me, that’s how bad the music industry is these days: my favorite song this month is hip-hop. Help me, Rachael Yamagata; you’re my only* hope.
Republicans: I find myself intrigued by the battle for the heart of conservatives now that Bush’s big-government, interventionist, corporatist values have been largely rejected by his own people. I vehemently disagree with each and every candidate on certain issues, but none of them really makes me irate and blind with hatred; Huckabee isn’t totally nuts, and Giuliani and Thompson have refused to embrace the social totalitarianism promoted by Republicans for the last decade. It’s as though I disagree with them, but can respect those differences and not see them as bad people. That is a radical concept.
Rays: Specifically, the Tampa Bay Rays (nee Devil). While the Red Sox fan part of me is terrified, the baseball fan and lover of smart baseball is infatuated with this franchise. They already had a fantastic group of prospects, but this week, they dealt one for pitching help and an underrated upgrade at shortstop. In addition, the club has added veteran Troy Percival as a relatively inexpensive closer. GM Andrew Friedman has turned the laughingstock organization into a silent threat in the AL East – they may not be prepared to break through yet, but barring unforeseeable problems, they should start to resemble a ballclub on the rise. 

Three Down

Technology: Or rather, its unpredictability. While the TV countdown helped November become an active blogging month, it only occurred after I incurred a power outage one Saturday, a day-long internet outage, and a hard drive failure that played out from a Friday to the next Tuesday. One really doesn’t know what one has till it’s gone; without my laptop and an internet connection, my music geekiness, baseball geekiness, political geekiness, listing dementia, and general oddness all become much harder to engage in.
Apple: It took some doing, but the iPod advertising department managed to find a song that made Feist seem downright fun. Not only does Cansei de Ser Sexy’s “Music Is My Hot Hot Sex” feature a voice that should never sing, but its lyrical content is downright offensive. “My music is where I’d like you to touch?” Excuse me? That’s almost enough to make me swear off my own iPod until the next commercial comes out – or at least boil it and encase it in protective latex. Our culture is already far too sex-obsessed; keep your genitalia metaphors away from my interests, please. It’s just a bad situation all around.
Sales: Black Friday came and went and I saw not a single cheap DVD or DVD set that I had to go get! Locating movies and shows I want at prices I can’t refuse is something of a quest to me; it’s not even about the end result of materialism as it is the thrill of the chase. But by and large, that chase has been appallingly uneventful this year.
* Full list of hopes includes Yamagata, Counting Crows, and Kathleen Edwards.  2008 is shaping up to be a very boring music year.

Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.