running on empty
August 22, 2009 at 5:06 pm | In Baseball | 4 CommentsTags: Brad Penny, Jason Varitek, Red Sox
It’s been a while since the Rangers ran the Red Sox into the ground with eight stolen bases in a game, but I’ve been sifting through a lot of data and trying to figure out how best to address an argument that cropped up among Red Sox fans on Twitter (and was touched on by NESN’s announcers) during that loss: whether the pitchers (namely the already awful Brad Penny) deserve the blame for how much opponents have run this year (118 SB allowed and 14% CS are both the worst in baseball), or if catcher Jason Varitek is a defensive problem who, despite what he’s meant to the Red Sox in the past, is hurting Boston’s chances this year. I was strongly of the opinion that Varitek is a large part of the problem, but with enough back-and-forth, I became convinced that the issue at least merited more than cursory investigation. So I’ve put together game logs including every pitcher/catcher battery employed by the Red Sox this year, and came up with two key results:
Brad Penny is awful at stopping runners. If you watch the Red Sox, you probably knew that. Using THT’s basic pitching data, I’ve looked at Penny not only compared to other Red Sox pitchers, but pitchers throughout baseball. The results… well, there’s no way to defend Penny’s ability to stop the running game.
Among 432 MLB pitchers with 20 or more innings pitched this year, Penny ranks 10th in steals per inning; his lousy rate over 24 starts also means he’s allowed more steals (27) and net steals (25) than anyone in baseball. Penny’s career suggests that these rates are worse than his usual skill set, but we can’t simply blame the fact that he’s allowing more guys to reach base; in the rest of his career, approximately 8.7% of runners (H+BB-HR) attempted to run, and 6.3% successfully stole. This year, 15.3% of Penny’s baserunners have attempted to run, and 14.2% have been successful. Clearly, opponents are not only able to hit the hefty hurler’s mediocre stuff, but are well aware that he will not hold them when they reach first.
But Penny’s permission of steals does not erase my second main point, and original thesis: Varitek is a big part of the problem. After the track event in Arlington, the veteran sat several games due to a neck injury; it’s entirely possible that the injury is part of his declining abilities. Still, I’m not as interested in the reason why Varitek is struggling as I am in demonstrating that he is, in fact, a liability. I’m referring to “liability” in terms of ability to stop runners; CERA arguments are entirely pointless due to the lack of comparison points (Varitek has caught over 71% of the Red Sox’ innings, meaning there’s minimal data to compare pitchers’ performance with different backstops), and arguments based on “intangibles” are, by definition, impossible to prove. We’re also only looking at 2009; Varitek’s CS% is at a career low, and he’s already allowed more steals than in any season since 2000. Clearly, he’s fallen quite a bit.
In 15 innings with non-Varitek catchers, Penny has not allowed a steal or even seen an attempt this year. That’s a small sample size and probably means next to nothing, but it certainly doesn’t hurt my case. Far more significant is the catcher that Varitek has been in 2009 with other pitchers:
| Varitek with… | Inn. | SB | CS | SB/Inn. | SB% |
| All pitchers | 770 | 92 | 15 | .12 | 86% |
| Penny | 116.7 | 27 | 2 | .23 | 93% |
| Non-Penny | 653.3 | 65 | 13 | .10 | 83% |
Looking at all 2009 catchers, it’s clear that Varitek is, even when working with non-Penny hurlers, below average in his ability to hold runners. If we look at the 79 MLB catchers with at least 40 innings and use that final line – Varitek’s stats without the Sox’ worst pitcher – instead of his real stats, he still ranks 10th in SB%, 12th in steals per inning, and second in net steals.
For the final indictment of Varitek’s defensive value, let’s look at the pitchers who’ve had at least 10 innings with both the Captain and other Red Sox catchers:
| Battery | Inn. | SB | CS | SB/Inn. | SB% |
| Bard-Varitek | 25.7 | 2 | 0 | .08 | 100% |
| Bard-Other | 11.3 | 2 | 0 | .18 | 100% |
| Beckett-Varitek | 145.7 | 10 | 2 | .07 | 83% |
| Beckett-Other | 16.7 | 2 | 0 | .12 | 100% |
| Delcarmen-Varitek | 33 | 6 | 1 | .18 | 86% |
| Delcarmen-Other | 16.3 | 1 | 0 | .06 | 100% |
| Lester-Varitek | 146 | 14 | 5 | .10 | 74% |
| Lester-Other | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Okajima-Varitek | 39.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
| Okajima-Other | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
| Papelbon-Varitek | 36.7 | 8 | 0 | .22 | 100% |
| Papelbon-Other | 15.3 | 2 | 1 | .13 | 67% |
| Penny-Varitek | 116.7 | 27 | 2 | .23 | 93% |
| Penny-Other | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
| Ramirez-Varitek | 40 | 5 | 0 | .13 | 100% |
| Ramirez-Other | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
| Saito-Varitek | 28.7 | 5 | 1 | .17 | 83% |
| Saito-Other | 15.3 | 2 | 1 | .13 | 67% |
Of 9 pitchers with enough innings, 6 have seen worse results on the basepaths with Varitek catching, and the left-handed Okajima has held runners equally well regardless of catcher. Varitek isn’t splitting time with strong defensive catchers – George Kottaras has been almost as bad without knuckleballer Tim Wakefield as with him, and while Victor Martinez has yet to see a steal attempt in his time with the Red Sox and isn’t as bad as his reputation, he’s certainly more valuable for his bat than his arm.
In summary: yes, Penny is awful at holding runners. But in 2009, Varitek has more than his share of problems, demonstrated by both his numbers even without Boston’s worst starter and the comparison of pitchers who have had time with him and other catchers this year. Red Sox fans can certainly be forgiven for loyalty to a player who has been such a big part of the franchise, but it’s inexcusable to ignore his shortcomings and place the blame squarely on the pitching staff.
summer’s killing us
August 9, 2009 at 8:51 pm | In Baseball | 1 CommentTags: Gregg Zaun, John Smoltz, R.J. Swindle, Rays, Red Sox, whither Ivan Ochoa?, Winston Abreu
The AL East slant on this week’s entry is a bit surprising; the futile efforts of the Red Sox have reminded me of my passion for all baseball – even non-contending clubs in well-played games – so you’d think I’d be talking more about the Indians’ youth movement or something. But without as many transactions to talk about, and no heart to tear apart a team for starting a lousy player while my favorite club continues to do no better than Nick Green, we’re stuck with a whole lotta Rays. Oh, and the obvious:
Mistake of the Week: I’ll just get it off my chest and give this award to the entirety of the Red Sox’ second half to date. It’s not just that Boston is 8-13 since the All-Star break, but also the sort of moves they’ve made. Most recently, I’m befuddled by the quick cut of John Smoltz. While his line drive, ground ball, and walk rates are all solid enough, the results haven’t been there for the 42-year-old bigot – whoops, I mean “gutty veteran and sure-fire Hall of Famer!” – and it’s understandable that a struggling club would pull him from the rotation. But team is so desperately in need of a long man that two pitchers have made their 2009 MLB debuts at Yankee Stadium, one of whom was Junichi Tazawa, in his first year of American baseball. Smoltz’ contract pays him by days spent on the 25-man roster, but despite their frugal ways lately, the Red Sox could easily afford $500,000 to keep him around for two more weeks working in mop-up and trying to re-find his stuff. Perhaps they’ll convince him to accept a minor league assignment instead of becoming a free agent, but the way things are going, I’m rather skeptical.
Still, as I write this, the Red Sox have gone 24 straight innings without scoring a run, so it’s not just pitching that’s plaguing what looked like a World Series contender a month ago. I’m not saying that one mediocre bat could change that fact, of course, but it’s tough to look at the team’s struggling shortstops – Jed Lowrie just hit the DL; Nick Green has just two hits in the last 28 days; recent pickup Chris Woodward was on waivers thanks to his abysmal play for the third-place Mariners – and not get even more upset about the hasty dumping of Julio Lugo before Lowrie had even shown any sort of offense at AAA as he recovered from wrist surgery. The only legitimate strike against Lugo was his glove, but for the massive downgrade he is at the plate, Woodward doesn’t offer much in the field himself. At this point, I’d just as soon see minor leaguer Ivan Ochoa, whose weak bat at is at least mitigated by a strong defensive reputation and the potential for a few stolen bases.
The Red Sox are still one of the brighter clubs in baseball, and their recent struggles are largely due to a slumping, injured lineup and Tim Wakefield’s absence from the rotation. But with questionable decisions like not even trying Smoltz in the bullpen, and outright foolish moves like dumping Lugo, it’s fair to say that GM Theo Epstein deserves his share of blame if the Red Sox come up just short this year.
Underrated Cut(s): The way he’s being dumped this week, you’d think there was something wrong with R.J. Swindle. The lefty reliever was cut by the Brewers and claimed by the Rays on Friday, then designated for assignment by Tampa Bay on Saturday. For all the talk about how lefties can keep jobs, Swindle has an unusually tough time FINDING one; while his major league numbers leave much to be desired, he has better than a strikeout per inning at AAA, and an impressively low walk rate. While he isn’t a groundballer, he has been remarkably consistent at keeping the ball in the park throughout his minor league career; the five home runs he’s given up in short time in the majors look more flukish than a true indictment of his talent. Considering has negligible service time, there are a lot of teams who could – and frequently manage to – do a lot worse than giving Swindle a real chance to settle in at the big-league level.
Shrewd Move of the Week: I’ve often felt like pillorying the usually smart Rays for keeping catcher Dioner Navarro around for so long; he’s hit for a staggeringly awful .252 OBP and has seen his defense slip considerably. The offensive deficiencies are partially due to a low BABIP, however, and he’s only 25; it’s hard to argue that such a significant piece of the 2008 AL champions should be entirely out of a job. But the Rays are chasing Boston for a wild card berth, and finding help behind the plate seemed a necessity. To that end, I must commend (and fear) Tampa Bay’s waiver claim on catcher Gregg Zaun, who found himself losing starts in Baltimore as rookie Matt Wieters took over. The Rays might also use him as a backup – at 38, Zaun struggled as an everyday player, but started hitting once his playing time was cut – but he still represents a considerable upgrade to Michel Hernandez and Shawn Riggans, even if he doesn’t get a chance to steal Navarro’s job outright.
Futility of the Week: It wasn’t all that long ago that talked about the Indians picking up a nice AAAA arm in Winston Abreu, but that trade has been completely negated by now. Having given him just three appearances – albeit none of them successful – the Indians cut ties with Abreu, meaning that they had surrendered a half-decent prospect in John Meloan for a one-month rental reliever. Lest one think Abreu is simply not good and teams learn that after having him, the Rays quickly signed Abreu, landing him right back in AAA Durham. The next day, they designated Meloan for assignment; it remains to be seen whether another team has interest in him, but it would be fitting if he could return to Cleveland and render the whole affair a complete waste of time for everyone involved.
it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
all the small things
July 30, 2009 at 4:42 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Brian Anderson, Dodgers, Freddy Sanchez, George Sherrill, Giants, Josh Bell, Mariners, Mark Kotsay, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Robert Manuel, Steve Johnson, Tim Alderson, White Sox, Wladimir Balentien
While the Red Sox continue trampling my soul return to being awesome, a roundup of some of this week’s smaller trades (and by “small” I mean “occurred since my last blog and/or don’t involve many players;” several of these guys are important parts on contending teams or real prospects).
Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson.
The Dodgers filled a significant area of need, and did so with the best option on the market. Sherrill has two more years of arbitration, and should be an excellent left-handed setup man like Will Ohman and Hong-Chih Kuo were supposed to be. It is, however, worth noting that Sherrill battled severe control issues in 2008 and 2006, so he’s hardly a sure thing; it’s also significant that he’s 32 years old, and could be washed up by the time he hits free agency. This is clearly a win-now move, though, and with the Phillies upgrading their rotation, it’s understandable why Los Angeles was willing to risk those things for the potential to bolster their bullpen.
Bell is a significant price to pay for a reliever with such question marks, though; the 22-year-old looks like a nice power hitter in the making, and has adjusted well to AA. If he can field enough to stick at third, the O’s got a pretty nice hitter here for a pitcher unlikely to be on a contending Baltimore club. Johnson’s a run-of-the-mill low-minors pitching prospect; he’s 21 and has been in the system since 2005, only reaching AA this year. He seems to have some strikeout potential, but gives up too many HRs to look like anything but organizational fodder.
Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson.
Are you @%$^ing kidding me? Giants GM Brian Sabean has done some weird, stupid things in his time, but this one still came as a shock. Sanchez is a nice add and a lock to contribute more than the Giants’ AAA players who have attempted to man second base (not as much an upgrade from Juan Uribe, but that’s beside the point). He’ll add a little speed, a little pop, a little defense, and give the wildcard-leading Giants a slightly better shot at October.
That’s not enough. I’m okay dealing prospects for impact players who could increase one’s chances of a World Series berth, but the Giants cannot be considered one of the NL’s stronger playoff clubs, and Sanchez only serves to fill a hole. That in mind, the price was absolutely staggering. Alderson was San Francisco’s #2 pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner. While low strikeout totals seem to undermine a lot of the hype around him, he’s still an exorbitant price to pay for an okay second baseman; even if we accept that Alderson isn’t the front-of-the-rotation starter that some believe he is, his value on the market ought to have been a fair deal greater than a minor pickup like Sanchez.
Cincinnati Reds traded RP Robert Manuel to Seattle Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien.
This is one that makes decent sense for both teams. Balentien is a year younger, but has thus far not translated some translated minor-league power into major-league hitting success. He’s a strikeout liability, but perhaps the National League and a friendlier home park will help him rediscover his stroke. The Reds have suffered injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson, so it makes sense to add another young guy who still could turn into a long-term asset.
Manuel seems closer to being a useful major leaguer, though, so I give the edge in this trade to Seattle. The 26-year-old didn’t get much time in a surprisingly strong Reds bullpen, but his minor league numbers make him an interesting relief prospect. To be successful in the AL, he’ll probably need to find the strikeout ability he showed as one of the Southern League’s best pitchers last year, but his control makes him a nice asset even if he doesn’t blow batters away.
Boston Red Sox traded “1B”/”OF” Mark Kotsay to Chicago White Sox for CF Brian Anderson.
27-year-old Anderson can’t hit and is overrated in the field. 33-year-old Kotsay can’t hit, can’t field, and was designated for assignment, giving the Red Sox a limited window to trade him; he will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Red Sox traded sure garbage for probable garbage that has a slim chance of turning into something of small value.
bust a move
July 24, 2009 at 8:37 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: Indians, Red Sox, A's, Padres, Cardinals, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Pirates, Orioles, Matt Holliday, Mark Kotsay, Julio Lugo, Brett Wallace, Chris Duncan, Adam LaRoche, Rafael Betancourt, Cla Meredith, Oscar Salazar, Felipe Lopez
Because trades are starting to come steadily, I’m abandoning my “Sunday roundup” format for the next week. There’s no real reason I can’t give some succinct transaction reviews during the week, particularly since the trade deadline falls on a Friday and I’ll likely have waning enthusiasm two days later for most of the news.
Pujols is no longer alone: The Cardinals, realizing that their offense is basically Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, wisely pursued the best outfielder presumed to be on the trade market in Oakland’s Matt Holliday. Holliday’s numbers have slipped noticably since leaving Colorado, but he’ll still bring more to the plate than St. Louis’ alternatives. The question, however, is whether it was worth it – Holliday will be a free agent after the season, and the prospect cost looks rather steep for a few months of a non-elite player.3B Brett Wallace seems overhyped for someone with only a small stint of dominant hitting at AA and not much of a defensive reputation, but he’s not yet 23 and showed a lot of offensive potential in his college career at Arizona State. Starter Clay Mortensen looks like pitching depth at best, but again, youth mitigates things; at 24, further improvement, while not guaranteed, is far from impossible. The rawest talent the A’s received was in 21-year-old outfielder Shane Peterson, who looks like the sort of player the A’s might have drafted with their second compensation pick had they lost Holliday in free agency.
With that, and Wallace’s upside, taken into consideration, it’s a solid haul for Oakland; while Wallace could very conceivably make the Cardinals look back in regret, it’s hard to fault them for giving up the two replaceable minor leaguers with the NL Central title looking very attainable. Just how great a cost such a victory would come at is a matter of one’s faith in Wallace turning into an impact player.
Red Sox get better for free: Julio Lugo should not have been designated for assignment, but he was; by this week, he had to be considered a sunk cost for the Red Sox, and managing to turn him into anything before he cleared waivers would be a nice move. Theo Epstein did a little better than “anything,” acquiring from the Cardinals 1B/OF Chris Duncan. While Duncan’s defense and health are huge liabilities, he is only 28 and brings a little pop and the ability to take a walk. Perhaps most importantly, he also gave Boston – dealing with an injured Jeff Bailey and underachieving Chris Carter and Paul McAnulty – the organizational depth to finally cut ties with the utterly futile use of a roster spot that is Mark Kotsay.
Kotsay might not have been replaced on the major league roster, however, had the Sox not also acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Pirates. LaRoche is a platoon player who should only start against right-handed pitchers, but he allows Kevin Youkilis to shift to third and spell the quickly-aged Mike Lowell. More importantly, he has eliminated Boston’s most glaring weakness (in specifically Kotsay and in general lack of someone to play over Lowell) at a minimal cost: the club is taking on just $3 million in payroll, and gave Pittsburgh nothing more than organizational filler in Argenis Diaz (a no-hit shortstop who was cluttering the 40-man roster) and Hunter Strickland (who, while young, neither strikes guys out nor keeps the ball in the park). While Boston could make themselves the divisional favorite by adding an impact player before next Friday, they have added the only thing they absolutely needed in LaRoche.
Indians save some money: Okay, that was harsh. Rafael Betancourt’s 2010 option for over $5 million wasn’t going to be picked up by a team that has quit pretending to care about spending money on players, and draft compensation for a Type B free agent would hinge upon them actually offering arbitration to Betancourt, which is hardly a given. Considering that, sending Betancourt to the Rockies for Connor Graham isn’t the worst thing Cleveland could have done; Graham has some chance of being a useful major leaguer in his future. That’s about all I can say, though; while he can certainly strike guys out, he’s had control problems in A-ball, and his main asset – home run prevention – looks like more luck than ground ball tendencies. The one thing that could turn things around would be a move to the bullpen, but we’ll have to see how the Indians handle their new prospect.
Padres raise eyebrows: While many comments online are highly critical of San Diego GM Kevin Towers, I liked the move that sent reliever Cla Meredith to Baltimore. Meredith, 26, is a useful middle reliever, but he’s headed to arbitration this winter and the Padres are trying to cut payroll. Their bounty, 31-year-old infielder Oscar Salazar, looks like a late bloomer; he made some noise with a big 2008 at AAA and then continued to be a surprise in the bigs. While he may be nothing more than a backup corner infielder, he has less service time than Meredith and thus is a cheaper option for a team on a budget. The most intriguing part, however, is that his arrival in San Diego could be seen as a precursor to the club finally trading 1B Adrian Gonzalez – reported to be unlikely – or 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Uninteresting player dealt to uninteresting team in uninteresting trade: That’s the best way to describe the snoozefest of a trade that sent 2B Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and I’ll understand if readers zone out for the rest of this post. Lopez seems, to me, like he’s been a Brewer before, but he has not; I assume that my mind just saw “middling infielder who isn’t great at anything but isn’t awful, either” and thought of Milwaukee. The Brewers sent Arizona a pair of similarly unremarkable prospects; Roque Mercedes looks like your run-of-the-mill minor-league reliever, while Cole Gillespie’s walk abilities and doubles power don’t make the 25-year-old look like a great bet in left field.
my favorite mistake
July 19, 2009 at 4:40 pm | In Baseball | 1 CommentTags: Julio Lugo, Kevin Towers, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox, Robert Andino
This week’s entry is shorter than what I’d gotten used to writing, but I think it’s fair to blame most of that on the light schedule this week due to the All-Star break. Perhaps I’ll get back to trying to blog mid-week about politics or top five lists to make up for my weekend laziness, or maybe this will be the week with a transaction big enough that it demands instant review, rather than delayed analysis.
Underrated Cut: Who else could it be, really? There’s no question that Julio Lugo’s defense had become a liability, but there was no reason the Red Sox couldn’t have waited to bring up Jed Lowrie until Lugo was traded or proved he couldn’t recover from injuries. His bat was still useful enough – he was 5th among AL shortstops in OBP, and his power wasn’t altogether unacceptable for the position – and yet Boston turned to a rookie who had already been optioned to AAA this year and designated Lugo for assignment. Besides his defensive shortcomings, critics point to Lugo’s exorbitant contract, but this was known to be a blunder by the Sox years ago and is already a sunk cost.
Lowrie may well be the better player in the near future, but he’s given absolutely no evidence of that this year – abysmal numbers at both AAA and MLB in an injury-plagued season – and his 2008 success basically amounted to a BABIP-aided August. While Lugo’s glove has certainly hurt the club, his bat has to be trusted over that of career minor leaguer Nick Green, whose success this year is as unsustainable as it is inexplicable (and who has struggled quite a bit since May). If Lowrie must be up already, the argument for Green has been his utility, but the Sox didn’t even tried Lugo at second base, where he could play between two plus defenders in Lowrie and Kevin Youkilis (nor is the club particularly open to playing Green away from short, even when the walking carcass who is Mark Kotsay continues to occupy a roster spot). I’m not as quick to blame the Red Sox’ mistake here on habitual racism as some, but whatever the cause, they seemed curiously intent upon throwing away a useful ballplayer in deference to two other imperfect options, only one of whom has upside.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? It’s obvious at this point that the Orioles aren’t going anywhere in 2009; they’re one of only four MLB clubs with more than 50 pythagorean losses, and their best starter has been finesse-pitching rookie Brad Bergesen. In short, there’s little purpose in reminding anyone that Baltimore is bad. Still, it’s rather remarkable how many chances they’ve given to SS Robert Andino to demonstrate that he’s as bad as his career numbers say, and just how conclusively he did so (if Lugo clears waivers, there’ll be a nice cheap option with something to prove in the AL East…). When given more playing time in June, he managed to get on base at an unbelievably bad .259 pace while hitting just one home run on the way to a .333 slugging percentage. Still, manager Dave Trembley actually praised his “contributions!” Andino’s minor league numbers give no indications that he can hit any better than this, and while he has modest defensive value, there’s certainly not enough there to make up for an OPS in the bottom 4% of MLB players with at least 80 at-bats. The only answer to my own question: Andino remains employed because he manages to make Cesar Izturis’ bat look good. And that is a notable accomplishment.
Shrewd Move of the Week: Had I done a weekly round-up last weekend, there’s no question that I would have torn into Padres GM Kevin Towers for the scant bounty he received for outfielder Scott Hairston. Just 29 and under team control for two more seasons, Hairston represented cheap power for a club that needed it. The two prospects San Diego acquired were… far less useful, to put it very gently; Craig Italiano is a low-minors guy with control issues, while Ryan Webb’s mediocre stats point to a career of trips up from AAA when the regular mop-up reliever is hurt. It was inexplicable until news came down that the Player To Be Named Later in the deal was pitcher Sean Gallagher. Suddenly, Towers’ reputation was salvaged: at just 23, Gallagher already looks like a decent option at the back end of a respectable rotation; for the 2009 Padres, he could practically be an ace. He’s still young enough to develop into a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy (again, by the standards of a better team than these Padres), and with just one year in the majors, he represents a cheap arm for a couple of seasons, at which point he could either help a contender or be dealt to continue a rebuilding process. What looked like another robbery by Billy Beane suddenly seems, at worst, a fair trade; considering Hairston’s age and San Diego’s last-place status this year, finding a pitcher like Gallagher could easily be argued an outright win for Kevin Towers.
so much for my happy ending
June 7, 2009 at 9:59 pm | In Baseball, Dementia | 1 CommentTags: Jamie Moyer, lazy but fun comparisons, Mark Kotsay, Matt Maloney, Nate McLouth, Neal Huntington broke my heart, Phillies, Red Sox, Reds
The bad news: one giant blunder has destroyed my faith in a promising GM, making me wonder what I ever saw in that sorry excuse for an MLB executive.
The good news: the Red Sox are again concerned primarily with the Yankees, instead of an annoying second-rate rival, which helps this “musical guilty pleasure satisfies similarly shameful baseball apparel pseudo-fetish” story remain untainted by clear and present danger to Boston’s playoff hopes from the name on the cute woman’s jersey.
Creepy intro aside: on to the analysis!
Why Do You Still Have A Job? When one talks about Philadelphia’s pitching woes, it’s important to note that there are more than a few problems on that staff. Citizens Bank Park hasn’t even played as a high-offense environment this year, but the rotation is riddled with ERAs in the mid-4s, while closer Brad Lidge has been unbelievably awful amidst a bullpen anchored by Ryan Madson. Yet there’s enough talent in Philly to make it hard to justify massive changes… except when it comes to Jamie Moyer. I’ll confess that I wasn’t hard enough on the Phillies when they granted a two-year, $13 million extension to the 46-year-old southpaw last winter, probably because it looked downright sane next to the Raul Ibanez contract (which still has plenty of time to become a huge mistake). But now, that huge investment looks like the only defensible answer to the question that provides a title to this section. Thus far, Moyer has posted the worst home run rate of his career, while his strikeouts are down from last year. With a .307 average on balls in play, Moyer may have had a few unlucky breaks this year, but bloop singles are hardly his problem. For context:
Player A: .360 OBP, .537 SLG, 12 doubles and 14 HR in 272 PA
Player B: .360 OBP, .538 SLG, 10 doubles and 17 HR in 242 PA
Player A represents Moyer’s opponents this year. Player B is Carlos Pena. If one is forced to face a lineup of Carlos Penas, one’s chances of winning are not particularly good. These are the circumstances for which the Phillies are paying more than five percent of this year’s payroll*.
Underrated Addition: The Reds have a well-known pitching prospect in Homer Bailey, but when Edinson Volquez went on the DL for the second time this year, Cincy finally gave a chance to a lesser known arm in Matt Maloney. I mentioned Maloney in my pre-season write-up, but due to past issues with the long ball, he looked more like a late-season option. With Bailey’s own home run problems, however, Maloney finally got a chance, and the results were predictable: too many home runs to be a front-end guy, but just one walk, and ultimately six solid innings that put the Reds in position to win. There’s no way to avoid the fact that all of the home runs severely limit Maloney’s value, but considering how poorly Bailey has pitched in the majors and his iffy control, I’d have to say that Cincy’s using the superior pitcher at this point, even if he is almost an obscurity next to the well-known Bailey.
Overrated Player of the Week: It’s no secret that I love the Red Sox, but it’s similarly obvious that I’m willing to call things as I see them even when it reflects poorly on the franchise. This week, the team brought Mark Kotsay back to the majors after a long rehab assignment to recover from back surgery and then a calf strain. It’s widely accepted that Kotsay gives the team a valuable bench presence capable of playing first base and outfield to rest the club’s starters, and everyone from NESN to national media seems to love the guy. The only problem? He’s awful at baseball. The 33-year-old can provide mediocre-to-acceptable defense, but with a bat as useless as his, his modest value in the field is more than erased. Despite low strikeout rates, Kotsay has not managed an OBP over .340 since 2004. His rehab stint doesn’t offer many positive indicators for his bat: no walks, and just one extra-base hit in 33 at-bats. Sample size warnings attach, but when you’re posting a BABIP over .310 and still can’t get your on-base percentage over .300 at AAA, there’s a pretty good chance you’re just not an offensive asset.
Kotsay wouldn’t be an obscene use of a bench spot on a non-contending club, but for a team with Boston’s expectations and resources, there’s no excuse for the presence of such a player. There are numerous 1B/OF options at AAA, including Jeff Bailey (.390 OBP at AAA this year), Chris Carter (slugged .515 at AAA last year), and Jon Van Every (26 HR at AAA last year, and more than solid in a short MLB stint this season). Instead, Boston’s going with a veteran who hasn’t had an OPS of even .750 since before Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted. As far as I’m concerned, Kotsay’s best asset is his solid chance of going back on the DL and forcing the team to give playing time to better and younger hitters.
Concessions That Don’t Change The Meaning Of The Big Picture And Larger Statistical Samples: While I was writing this indictment of his bat, Kotsay hit a home run.
Mistake of the Week (Or “Heartbreaking Betrayal of Foolish Optimism of the Week”): The acquisition of outfielder Nate McLouth could just as easily have been “Shrewd Move of the Week” for the Braves, but it stands out more starkly as undermining my faith in Neal Huntington. After other scathing reviews of the deal, Huntington tried to defend
himself, but his claims that the trade had no financial motivation makes it all the harder to justify; as much as I had come to like Huntington, the trade and his poor explanation are rather heartbreaking. Gorkys Hernandez “has the speed and potential to become an above average everyday major league outfielder?” Possibly, but as he slugs just .375 at AA and has some damning strikeout tendencies, it looks more likely that his future is as a defensive center fielder with some speed – and a below-average bat. Charlie Morton’s “upside” and “power” pitching? Even if we toss out his disasterous time in the bigs, Morton is 25 and has never struck out even a batter per inning at any level of the minors. Huntington’s description of Jeff Locke as an “intriguing young left handed starter with the frame, athleticism and stuff to become a quality major league starting pitcher” is full of cliches that frequently scream “completely unproven” – and ultimately, the cop-out that they’ll be happy if he just becomes a “quality” starter, conceding a lack of front-end potential. Considering how much Locke has been lost (hooray, TV puns!) upon reaching merely the High-A Carolina League, I’d call him a complete wildcard who needs to start living up to his scouting reports.
None of these players are bad for the Pirates in and of themselves. Huntington is right that his team needs to add quantity as well as quality, but getting no blue-chip prospects for a player like McLouth is simply unacceptable. Much like their surrender of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last year, the Bucs made a trade that they didn’t need to make despite a prospect package that should not have been overwhelming; one such instance isn’t damning, but a second starts to form a concerning pattern. In the case of McLouth’s trade, there is the additional consideration that they dealt a young player signed to a contract favorable to the team – no matter what his defensive shortcomings, he should be worth far more than he’s scheduled to be paid through 2012. McLouth was a player who should have required an overwhelming offer to be traded, and there’s little about the package of Braves prospects that could be seen as overwhelming. For Atlanta, the deal is of such a lopsided nature and huge impact that they move ahead of Seattle and the rapidly falling Pittsburgh and into my top 5.
* This is extremely lazy, cheap, and flawed logic, but I really enjoy “Pitcher N turns opponents into Hitter X” comparisons.
you have seen too much in too few years
May 31, 2009 at 6:14 pm | In Baseball | 1 CommentTags: intangibles, Mets, Nick Green, Ramon Castro, Red Sox, Scott Podsednik, White Sox
Why Do You Still Have A Job? There are several White Sox eligible to have their employment questioned, but outfielder Scott Podsednik is the oldest and the most distanced from a semblance of usefulness. His last on-base percentage over .330 was in 2005; his only slugging percentage over .400 was in his rookie 2003. While his contract for just $800,000 makes him an inexpensive mistake, it also means that his release wouldn’t be costly for the White Sox. Instead of buying him out and going after Jim Edmonds or a trade, they’ve let Podsednik play regularly to .654 OPS, and he’s been caught as many times as he’s successfully stolen a base, making his baserunning aggressiveness an extra liability on top of his consistent failure to hit. Worst of all for the White Sox: he stands to get more playing time while Carlos Quentin is on the DL.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: Is Nick Green trying to fill a certain void in Boston? I’m as thrilled as any Red Sox fan at the production that part-time shortstop Green is giving at the plate – even though it’s largely due to a fortuitous .367 BABIP – but lately, he’s started to betray an extreme lack of baseball intelligence. On more than one occasion, he’s been thrown out at second after trying to stretch singles that had no business being stretched. In one memorable mental gaffe, he botched a rundown of an opposing player and didn’t get any outs on a ground ball right to him. And today, he was picked off of first base by the catcher… when there was already a runner occupying second. The Red Sox have a slugging left fielder with lousy defense, Manny, and Ramirez; Green seems determined to take over as the guy who makes head-scratchingly stupid decisions on the field.
Mistake of the Week: I’ve never accused Mets GM Omar Minaya of being a genius. He’s assembled some high-budget teams with some gaping holes; while he can identify and pursue superstar players, he’s shown considerably less ability to build complete rosters deep with useful talent. Nothing he does during the 2009 season is likely to match the mistake of the Oliver Perez contract, but his recent handling of the club’s backup catcher situation is nonetheless further evidence of his questionable competence. Ramon Castro is no All-Star, but he constantly hits more than adequately for his role, and would be quite acceptable if forced to start for any length of time. Making over two million dollars is a bit pricey for a reserve, but Castro certainly earns his paycheck more than, say, Luis Castillo. But when Omir Santos got off to a hot start, Minaya elected to keep the rookie – despite a dreadful set of minor-league numbers – and gave Castro to the White Sox for non-prospect Lance Broadway. It’s one thing to become enamored of a young player with a mixed track record, but Santos is 28 and has never shown any indication that he could slug over .400 in the majors (he hasn’t hit that mark since A-ball). Meanwhile, the Mets picked up part of Castro’s salary, mitigating their savings in the trade; they were so desperate to be rid of a backup catcher who has outhit most of their current bench (and several starters) that they didn’t even make Chicago take on the full salary. Between this and the willful ignorance of Philly’s GM, their NL East rivals in Atlanta are becoming even more likable.
Question of the Week: Have I made too little of the emotional toll of baseball? Zack Greinke is making quite an impact this year not only due to his stellar pitching (his XFIP remains under 3.00), but also because of his compelling personal story – he has bounced back from depression and social anxiety disorder that had threatened to end his career. This week, Cardinals shortstop Khalil Greene hit the disabled list after battling anxiety problems, while Reds first baseman Joey Votto was DLed for a “stress-related issue.” Perhaps it is the gradual decline of the stigma against mental health issues letting more players take time off rather than play while suffering, or maybe there is truly an increase in such problems among athletes as a result of obscene salaries while most of the country is in a deep recession. Either way, however, it’s undermining the idea that team psychologists can weed out players with potential issues before they get drafted or reach the bigs; while “clutch hitters” are a debunked myth, I’m now more willing to consider the possibility that certain players don’t have the mental makeup to continue minor league success once making it to the majors. I’m not going to trivialize mental illness by pretending to diagnose any specific conditions, but the growing visibility of anxiety problems in Major Leaguers has made me
more open to accepting that certain players’ struggles may continue, despite track records to the contrary.
Boston’s Julio Lugo has a bit of a “choker” reputation, and it would be easy to explain some of his awful defense with the stress of playing in front of one of baseball’s most hardcore fan bases. Phil Hughes dominated the minors with stellar control and limited long balls, but has had considerable problems with walks and home runs since getting called up by the Yankees (it’s worth noting that he pitches in baseball’s toughest division, but his peripheral numbers are still startling). Completing the trio of AL East mysteries is Tampa Bay’s Grant Balfour, who has had control problems throughout his career but seemed to harness his stuff in 2008, walking only 24 batters in 58 innings. After granting 8 “ball four”’s in 11 playoff innings last year, he’s given 15 free passes in just 23 innings this year.
I know none of these players and am not qualified to draw any conclusions. It’s quite possible that Balfour’s disappearing-then-reemerging issues were simply sample size and unfamiliarity helping him get through most of 2008 unscathed despite a problem that has plagued his career. Hughes has less than 30 major-league starts, and Lugo could simply be getting older and losing his ability. But considering how many issues seem invisible to teams until they’re too much to handle, isn’t it worth considering that perhaps the mental health of MLB players isn’t as guaranteed as we often assume?
if i could, i would let it go
May 10, 2009 at 6:17 pm | In Baseball, Historical Ineptitude | 4 CommentsTags: Denny Stark, Indians, Javier Lopez, Manny Ramirez, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox, Ruben Amaro Jr., Vinnie Chulk
It’s been a pretty slow week transaction-wise; the recently-maligned P.J. Walters got his deserved demotion, the Yankees called up their fourth-string catcher, and the Nationals wisely gave up hoping that Mike Hinckley could be a useful pitcher. Meanwhile, the pantheon of baseball idiocy has found a new god – but more on that later. First, something that went right!
Shrewd Move of the Week: Imagine, if you will, a pitcher who comes out of the bullpen and walks almost a batter per inning. This pitcher only manages to strike out a batter every three innings. Did I mention he’s 30 and has a history of extreme mediocrity? But what if, by inexplicable luck of stranded runners and a low hit rate thanks to a .237 average allowed on balls in play, he has a 3.75 ERA? Should you let him keep pitching instead of going to pitchers who might put up better component statistics? No, you should not. And this is the wisdom that Indians GM Mark Shapiro found as applying to Vinnie Chulk. Chulk has had several big games for the Tribe this year, including 2 1/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox. But underneath his brief success was a set of statistics that screams “I’ve been incredibly lucky!” Chulk’s upside was… well, basically what they got from him, and Shapiro deserves to be commended for being willing to designate Chulk for assignment earlier this week. The only way I could be happier is if he manages to trade Chulk for something of value from a less thorough front office.
Oh, and…: Calling this week “uneventful” doesn’t really work for me as a Sox fan. Between writing and press time (a five-minute window in which found my Tic Tacs), it was learned that Red Sox “relief” “pitcher” Javier Lopez has finally been designated for assignment. Javy’s been every bit as awful as his 7.01 xFIP, posting an almost 2:1 walk:strikeout ratio. He’ll not be missed.
Question of the Week: What does Manny Ramirez’s suspension mean for the Red Sox? Very little. While I was quite surprised at Manny’s positive test for a banned substance, the theory that this undermines the Red Sox’ 2004 and 2007 championships is rather absurd. Admittedly, Sox fans may have lost some of the moral high ground from which they can boo the steroid-using Alex Rodriguez, but there’s a difference between what is immoral and what is unfair. If Manny was juicing in 2004 or 2007 – a fact that is certainly possible, though impossible to know for now – it means he’s the same slime as A-Rod. But the consensus is that steroids have run rampant through Major League Baseball for the past two decades; while the playing field may be heavily enhanced and artificially heightened, there’s no reason to think it hasn’t been level. Since countless other players and teams used the same “advantage” as a hypothetical ‘roided-up Manny and the Sox, I can’t see any loss of legitimacy to the ‘04 and ‘07 rings, and Manny’s possible crimes taint my memories of those years far less than his ugly exit from Boston.
Why Do You Still Once Again Have A Job? I like the Mariners. With their surprising strength early in the season, they provide a viable backup rooting plan in the AL West should the A’s continue to be hopeless. But other than a misguided wish to recapture the BABIP-luck-induced magic of a rookie 2002 in Colorado, there’s no justification for Denny Stark’s presence in the bullpen. Since being called up last week, Stark has pitched in four games. Only one of those appearances was a clean inning; each of the others involved at least as many walks as strikeouts. His worst outing came Tuesday, when he surrendered six runs on five hits (one a home run) and a walk to lose to Texas in the 10th inning. Stark’s major league career makes clear his poor control, inability to strike batters out, and problems with the long ball; his minor league numbers only show that he’s able to keep the ball in AAA stadiums, but still not very good at getting guys out. It would be nice if Stark could overcome multiple arm surgeries to be useful in his first major league season since 2004, but simply put, he has never been good enough to merit the chance Seattle is giving him right now. Perhaps continuing to contend is unrealistic for the Mariners, even in a weak division, but right now, they’re giving away games if they keep Stark.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: Why would anyone this willfully ignorant be hired for one of the most powerful jobs in baseball? I had written a serious (and furious) rebuttal to this – wherein Raul Ibanez’ unforeseeable defensive strength through one month of the season is used to undermine the validity of statistics – but you know what, Ruben Amaro, Jr.? You’ve set the Phillies back to the bottom quintile of my rooting hierarchy, but beyond that, you’re not worth the outrage. Instead, I’m just gonna take the most offensive part:
“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all,” Amaro said. “I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick. I think defense is subjective. You know, if you watch a guy, whether he has range or not. You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers. It doesn’t happen. “We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.”
and get FJM-y with it, piece by horrendous piece.
I do not buy numbers defensively.
I do not buy books at list price. Thanks for sharing your money-saving tips in these troubling economic times.
I look at fielding percentage.
Great way to show you “do not buy numbers defensively. At all.” Fielding percentage is not actually a number, but a special, magical tool to see how good a player is at defense. It’s like a Pensieve, except it only shows clips from SportsCenter.
What’s that? It’s actually just a measure of how good a guy is when he touches the ball, with no regard for how often he actually gets to it, which would be a far more accurate measure of defensive ability? Oh. Well, I’m sure that that common mistake won’t end my dreams of working for the Phillies.
I think defense is subjective.
The problem with sports these days is that there’s too much high-stakes testing going on. Everyone is so concerned with numbers that managers teach to the test instead of having their players learn to play the game. In the real world, how good teams are at baseball isn’t determined by numbers and percentages, but whether they Play The Game The Right Way. Like offense and pitching, defense is subjective; how it results in “runs” and “scoring” is just an illusion perpetuated by The Man to keep kids like Raul Ibanez from following their dreams and just having fun with the game.
And for that matter, why do people insist on trying to put labels on Brad Lidge? It’s subjective. Telling him that he’s been “losing” by giving up “runs” and letting the other team “score” is only going to destroy his love for the game! Damn it, he just loves watching the ball fly out of the park after he throws it, and that’s neither bad nor good – it’s what’s right for him.
You can’t study a guy’s routes to the ball by the numbers.
Exactly! And routes are what matter. If Ibanez takes routes that let him cut the ball off on the first hop, instead of catching it on the fly at the same rate that others in his position can, who are we to judge? The grace… the aesthetic awe that is a route… that’s so much more important than the result of the play. Smart people know that beauty trumps results every time; if only more people had voted for Diane Lane instead of that policy nerd Obama, I’m sure our economy would be booming by now.
We subscribe to what our guys see with their eyes, especially when it comes to defense.
Which is why fielding percentage is so important. It takes scouts and keenly-trained observers to count how many errors a guy makes, but something like Zone Rating? Why, any schmuck could measure that without having to look at an actual game! And lord knows we stat geeks just hate watching baseball.
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