it was the heat of the moment
July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 CommentsTags: A's, Aaron Poreda, Adam LaRoche, Adam Russell, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Bryan Price, Casey Kotchman, Claudio Vargas, Clayton Richard, Cubs, Dexter Carter, Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Indians, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Joe Beimel, John Grabow, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Josh Roenicke, Justin Masterson, Kevin Hart, Lucas French, Mariners, Marlins, Mauricio Robles, Nationals, Nick Hagadone, Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Scott Rolen, Tigers, Tom Gorzelanny, Twins, Tyler Ladendorf, Victor Martinez, Vinny Rottino, White Sox, Yankees, Zachary Stewart
Trade deadline live-ish blogging!
4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.
4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.
4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.
4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.
4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.
4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.
3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.
3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.
3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.
3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?
3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.
3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.
3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.
2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.
2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.
2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.
2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.
1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?
Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.
1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.
1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.
1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.
1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.
11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.
First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.
Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.
Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.
Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.
I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.
all the small things
July 30, 2009 at 4:42 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Brian Anderson, Dodgers, Freddy Sanchez, George Sherrill, Giants, Josh Bell, Mariners, Mark Kotsay, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Robert Manuel, Steve Johnson, Tim Alderson, White Sox, Wladimir Balentien
While the Red Sox continue trampling my soul return to being awesome, a roundup of some of this week’s smaller trades (and by “small” I mean “occurred since my last blog and/or don’t involve many players;” several of these guys are important parts on contending teams or real prospects).
Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson.
The Dodgers filled a significant area of need, and did so with the best option on the market. Sherrill has two more years of arbitration, and should be an excellent left-handed setup man like Will Ohman and Hong-Chih Kuo were supposed to be. It is, however, worth noting that Sherrill battled severe control issues in 2008 and 2006, so he’s hardly a sure thing; it’s also significant that he’s 32 years old, and could be washed up by the time he hits free agency. This is clearly a win-now move, though, and with the Phillies upgrading their rotation, it’s understandable why Los Angeles was willing to risk those things for the potential to bolster their bullpen.
Bell is a significant price to pay for a reliever with such question marks, though; the 22-year-old looks like a nice power hitter in the making, and has adjusted well to AA. If he can field enough to stick at third, the O’s got a pretty nice hitter here for a pitcher unlikely to be on a contending Baltimore club. Johnson’s a run-of-the-mill low-minors pitching prospect; he’s 21 and has been in the system since 2005, only reaching AA this year. He seems to have some strikeout potential, but gives up too many HRs to look like anything but organizational fodder.
Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson.
Are you @%$^ing kidding me? Giants GM Brian Sabean has done some weird, stupid things in his time, but this one still came as a shock. Sanchez is a nice add and a lock to contribute more than the Giants’ AAA players who have attempted to man second base (not as much an upgrade from Juan Uribe, but that’s beside the point). He’ll add a little speed, a little pop, a little defense, and give the wildcard-leading Giants a slightly better shot at October.
That’s not enough. I’m okay dealing prospects for impact players who could increase one’s chances of a World Series berth, but the Giants cannot be considered one of the NL’s stronger playoff clubs, and Sanchez only serves to fill a hole. That in mind, the price was absolutely staggering. Alderson was San Francisco’s #2 pitching prospect behind only Madison Bumgarner. While low strikeout totals seem to undermine a lot of the hype around him, he’s still an exorbitant price to pay for an okay second baseman; even if we accept that Alderson isn’t the front-of-the-rotation starter that some believe he is, his value on the market ought to have been a fair deal greater than a minor pickup like Sanchez.
Cincinnati Reds traded RP Robert Manuel to Seattle Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien.
This is one that makes decent sense for both teams. Balentien is a year younger, but has thus far not translated some translated minor-league power into major-league hitting success. He’s a strikeout liability, but perhaps the National League and a friendlier home park will help him rediscover his stroke. The Reds have suffered injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson, so it makes sense to add another young guy who still could turn into a long-term asset.
Manuel seems closer to being a useful major leaguer, though, so I give the edge in this trade to Seattle. The 26-year-old didn’t get much time in a surprisingly strong Reds bullpen, but his minor league numbers make him an interesting relief prospect. To be successful in the AL, he’ll probably need to find the strikeout ability he showed as one of the Southern League’s best pitchers last year, but his control makes him a nice asset even if he doesn’t blow batters away.
Boston Red Sox traded “1B”/”OF” Mark Kotsay to Chicago White Sox for CF Brian Anderson.
27-year-old Anderson can’t hit and is overrated in the field. 33-year-old Kotsay can’t hit, can’t field, and was designated for assignment, giving the Red Sox a limited window to trade him; he will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Red Sox traded sure garbage for probable garbage that has a slim chance of turning into something of small value.
summer’s here and the time is right
June 28, 2009 at 7:23 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Andy Sonnanstine, Chris Perez, Coco Crisp, David Price, Indians, Mariners, Mark DeRosa, PTBNL, Rays, Reds, Royals, Ryan Langerhans, Willy Taveras
My off week has left me rejuvenated and able to do some of the most non-Soxy baseball writing I’ve done in months. Here’s to being well-rested!
Underrated Addition: Seattle acquired AAAA-type outfielder Ryan Langerhans from Washington for more-certainly-a-minor-league-bat utility type Mike Morse. Langerhans is the older of the pair, but his AAA numbers certainly suggest he could merit a chance with a big-league club. With Endy Chavez injured, the Mariners have an outfield opening the Nationals were unlikely to see; if Langerhans can post a .350 OBP with a little pop while platooning with Wladimir Balentien, the M’s may end up with a better lineup than they had with the speed-oriented Chavez. For the Nationals, Morse may get a chance at second thanks to lousy years from Anderson Hernandez and Ronnie Belliard, but he’s no better than a fallback option for an awful club; Seattle clearly comes out ahead in this swap. A final interesting note on the trade: a recent fan chat floated the idea, and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik clearly liked it.
Schadenfreude of the Week, Non-Governor Division: I’m no longer worried that the Royals’ mistake-riddled offseason could be rewarded with a playoff berth on the merits of a few pitchers, but I’m still taking a bit of delight at how strongly one of those moves has come back to bite Kansas City. Former perpetually-whining Red Sox OF Coco Crisp will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this week, making his expensive contract (including an $8 million option for 2010) all the more ridiculous an acquisition for the Royals. The pitcher the Royals traded for Crisp this winter, Ramon Ramirez, is quietly having a very weak season by his standards, but with injuries and poor years starting to take their toll on KC’s staff, it’s hard not to think they’d take Ramirez back in a heartbeat. For context, the Royals’ pitching staff has become so thin that Bruce Chen has finally made it back to the majors. He’s earned that shot with solid work at AAA, but a simple fact remains: he’s Bruce Chen.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? I like the Reds. No longer under the reign of a grossly incompetent GM, they’ve started making moves that look shrewd to me, and contrasted against an NL Central otherwise devoid of wisdom, they look even better.
But Willy Taveras was a mistake when the Reds signed him, and now the worst-case scenario is playing out with a $4 million salary looming in 2010. Taveras has never been a good hitter, but the bottom has truly fallen out this season: his .276 on-base percentage is inexcusable, and his .288 slugging percentage is similarly awful. He’s managed just one home run and 14 walks this year, striking out 41 times. The numbers are no worse than Cincinnati SS Alex Gonzalez, but Gonzalez has a poor BABIP in his defense, contributes more in the field, isn’t leading off, and is an indictment of the prior front office regime. The Reds also don’t have an indisputably better option than Gonzalez (words to live by: no matter how bad things get, Paul Janish is never the answer) in the infield.
In deferring to Taveras’ high salary and speedy reputation, however, Cincy is benching not one, but three superior hitters. Chris Dickerson has a strong defensive reputation and the numbers to back it up; Laynce Nix has a lousy on-base percentage but has slugged quite a bit, and still makes fewer outs than Taveras; Jonny Gomes has made the most of minimal playing time and shown decent patience as well as a bit of pop. At the very least, Dickerson and Nix should both start versus righties, something the Reds seem to be doing recently. But against southpaws, Taveras may be worse than either lefty hitter, and under no circumstances should he lead off. Knowing how Reds manager Dusty Baker loves speedy ballplayers, I fear the front office needs to take the Taveras option off his hands entirely if he’s ever going to avoid 500 at-bats.
Mistake of the Week: Consider two young pitchers:
Player A, at 26, has likely reached his potential: a back-of-the-rotation arm with mediocre stuff, he relies on stellar control (averaging less than two walks per nine innings since 2007). He moved steadily through the minors and experienced success at each level before being promoted, and his home run problems this year seem flukish, considering he’s posting the best ground ball rate of his short career.
Player B, 23, has all kinds of “stuff.” Scouts love his potential, the media salivates every time he takes the mound, and even a statistically minded fan can understand his appeal. Yet the results have never been there – he racked up plenty of strikeouts as he sped through the minors, but frequently accompanied them with walks or home runs. In the majors, he has worse HR problems than Player A and a lower ground ball rate, and he’s walking 6 batters per 9 innings (which results in some short starts that tax a mediocre bullpen). While I’m loath to use clichés like “learn to pitch,” he is by all appearances very raw, and could benefit immensely from more time in the minors to convert his talent into results.
Both players are starters for Tampa Bay, and when Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list, one of them had to go. The Rays optioned down Player A, Andy Sonnanstine, keeping Player B, David Price; it’s a decision that I find hard to defend, particularly considering that Sonnanstine has pitched better lately while Price has had just one start (May 30 against Minnesota) that I would call “good.” The Rays seem like one of the smarter organizations in baseball, so perhaps they’re hoping that Price will increase his trade value by pitching in the majors. But if they’re simply betting on the guy who throws hard to be better than the guy who throws strikes for the rest of 2009, I think they’re making a dreadful mistake (and as a Sox fan, I thank them for it).
Question of the Week: Who’s the Player To Be Named Later? Allow me to preface this evaluation of yesterday’s trade with the following: Mark DeRosa is overrated. He’s a good player, sure, and he’s turned it on after a sluggish, low BABIP-plagued start. But he’s 34, and while he can play many positions, the defensive jack of all trades is a master of… well, not many. There’s value in his versatility, sure, but it looks pretty clear that 2008 was the peak of his career.
DeRosa, however, has been hyped for most of the season, particularly since it became clear that the Cleveland Indians were going nowhere in 2009, and was a rumored target for numerous teams due to his versatility. Trading him to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later saves the extremely “frugal” Indians over two million dollars in a non-contending season, so it’s far from a disaster.
But Perez, even in the weaker National League, has had serious walk problems and, like ex-Cardinal Anthony Reyes before him, struggled with the long ball. He’s not ready to help the Tribe yet, and he’s far from a sure thing to turn into a valuable reliever down the road. Perez looks far more like a secondary player in a deal for someone as coveted as DeRosa, so if the player to be named turns out to be a low minor leaguer or mediocre upper-level guy, the Indians will be in grave danger of slipping even farther down my rooting hierarchy.
so much for my happy ending
June 7, 2009 at 9:59 pm | In Baseball, Dementia | 1 CommentTags: Jamie Moyer, lazy but fun comparisons, Mark Kotsay, Matt Maloney, Nate McLouth, Neal Huntington broke my heart, Phillies, Red Sox, Reds
The bad news: one giant blunder has destroyed my faith in a promising GM, making me wonder what I ever saw in that sorry excuse for an MLB executive.
The good news: the Red Sox are again concerned primarily with the Yankees, instead of an annoying second-rate rival, which helps this “musical guilty pleasure satisfies similarly shameful baseball apparel pseudo-fetish” story remain untainted by clear and present danger to Boston’s playoff hopes from the name on the cute woman’s jersey.
Creepy intro aside: on to the analysis!
Why Do You Still Have A Job? When one talks about Philadelphia’s pitching woes, it’s important to note that there are more than a few problems on that staff. Citizens Bank Park hasn’t even played as a high-offense environment this year, but the rotation is riddled with ERAs in the mid-4s, while closer Brad Lidge has been unbelievably awful amidst a bullpen anchored by Ryan Madson. Yet there’s enough talent in Philly to make it hard to justify massive changes… except when it comes to Jamie Moyer. I’ll confess that I wasn’t hard enough on the Phillies when they granted a two-year, $13 million extension to the 46-year-old southpaw last winter, probably because it looked downright sane next to the Raul Ibanez contract (which still has plenty of time to become a huge mistake). But now, that huge investment looks like the only defensible answer to the question that provides a title to this section. Thus far, Moyer has posted the worst home run rate of his career, while his strikeouts are down from last year. With a .307 average on balls in play, Moyer may have had a few unlucky breaks this year, but bloop singles are hardly his problem. For context:
Player A: .360 OBP, .537 SLG, 12 doubles and 14 HR in 272 PA
Player B: .360 OBP, .538 SLG, 10 doubles and 17 HR in 242 PA
Player A represents Moyer’s opponents this year. Player B is Carlos Pena. If one is forced to face a lineup of Carlos Penas, one’s chances of winning are not particularly good. These are the circumstances for which the Phillies are paying more than five percent of this year’s payroll*.
Underrated Addition: The Reds have a well-known pitching prospect in Homer Bailey, but when Edinson Volquez went on the DL for the second time this year, Cincy finally gave a chance to a lesser known arm in Matt Maloney. I mentioned Maloney in my pre-season write-up, but due to past issues with the long ball, he looked more like a late-season option. With Bailey’s own home run problems, however, Maloney finally got a chance, and the results were predictable: too many home runs to be a front-end guy, but just one walk, and ultimately six solid innings that put the Reds in position to win. There’s no way to avoid the fact that all of the home runs severely limit Maloney’s value, but considering how poorly Bailey has pitched in the majors and his iffy control, I’d have to say that Cincy’s using the superior pitcher at this point, even if he is almost an obscurity next to the well-known Bailey.
Overrated Player of the Week: It’s no secret that I love the Red Sox, but it’s similarly obvious that I’m willing to call things as I see them even when it reflects poorly on the franchise. This week, the team brought Mark Kotsay back to the majors after a long rehab assignment to recover from back surgery and then a calf strain. It’s widely accepted that Kotsay gives the team a valuable bench presence capable of playing first base and outfield to rest the club’s starters, and everyone from NESN to national media seems to love the guy. The only problem? He’s awful at baseball. The 33-year-old can provide mediocre-to-acceptable defense, but with a bat as useless as his, his modest value in the field is more than erased. Despite low strikeout rates, Kotsay has not managed an OBP over .340 since 2004. His rehab stint doesn’t offer many positive indicators for his bat: no walks, and just one extra-base hit in 33 at-bats. Sample size warnings attach, but when you’re posting a BABIP over .310 and still can’t get your on-base percentage over .300 at AAA, there’s a pretty good chance you’re just not an offensive asset.
Kotsay wouldn’t be an obscene use of a bench spot on a non-contending club, but for a team with Boston’s expectations and resources, there’s no excuse for the presence of such a player. There are numerous 1B/OF options at AAA, including Jeff Bailey (.390 OBP at AAA this year), Chris Carter (slugged .515 at AAA last year), and Jon Van Every (26 HR at AAA last year, and more than solid in a short MLB stint this season). Instead, Boston’s going with a veteran who hasn’t had an OPS of even .750 since before Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted. As far as I’m concerned, Kotsay’s best asset is his solid chance of going back on the DL and forcing the team to give playing time to better and younger hitters.
Concessions That Don’t Change The Meaning Of The Big Picture And Larger Statistical Samples: While I was writing this indictment of his bat, Kotsay hit a home run.
Mistake of the Week (Or “Heartbreaking Betrayal of Foolish Optimism of the Week”): The acquisition of outfielder Nate McLouth could just as easily have been “Shrewd Move of the Week” for the Braves, but it stands out more starkly as undermining my faith in Neal Huntington. After other scathing reviews of the deal, Huntington tried to defend
himself, but his claims that the trade had no financial motivation makes it all the harder to justify; as much as I had come to like Huntington, the trade and his poor explanation are rather heartbreaking. Gorkys Hernandez “has the speed and potential to become an above average everyday major league outfielder?” Possibly, but as he slugs just .375 at AA and has some damning strikeout tendencies, it looks more likely that his future is as a defensive center fielder with some speed – and a below-average bat. Charlie Morton’s “upside” and “power” pitching? Even if we toss out his disasterous time in the bigs, Morton is 25 and has never struck out even a batter per inning at any level of the minors. Huntington’s description of Jeff Locke as an “intriguing young left handed starter with the frame, athleticism and stuff to become a quality major league starting pitcher” is full of cliches that frequently scream “completely unproven” – and ultimately, the cop-out that they’ll be happy if he just becomes a “quality” starter, conceding a lack of front-end potential. Considering how much Locke has been lost (hooray, TV puns!) upon reaching merely the High-A Carolina League, I’d call him a complete wildcard who needs to start living up to his scouting reports.
None of these players are bad for the Pirates in and of themselves. Huntington is right that his team needs to add quantity as well as quality, but getting no blue-chip prospects for a player like McLouth is simply unacceptable. Much like their surrender of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last year, the Bucs made a trade that they didn’t need to make despite a prospect package that should not have been overwhelming; one such instance isn’t damning, but a second starts to form a concerning pattern. In the case of McLouth’s trade, there is the additional consideration that they dealt a young player signed to a contract favorable to the team – no matter what his defensive shortcomings, he should be worth far more than he’s scheduled to be paid through 2012. McLouth was a player who should have required an overwhelming offer to be traded, and there’s little about the package of Braves prospects that could be seen as overwhelming. For Atlanta, the deal is of such a lopsided nature and huge impact that they move ahead of Seattle and the rapidly falling Pittsburgh and into my top 5.
* This is extremely lazy, cheap, and flawed logic, but I really enjoy “Pitcher N turns opponents into Hitter X” comparisons.
it’s just bad news, bad news, bad news
May 24, 2009 at 7:44 pm | In Baseball | Leave a CommentTags: Aaron Miles, Cubs, Jody Gerut, Jonny Gomes, Kevin Towers, Marlins, Padres, Reds, Ricky Nolasco, Tony Gwynn Jr.
This is an awfully pessimistic selection of news items in a week that saw the Red Sox finally move into first place, the Padres extend their winning streak to nine games (and still end up as far from a division lead as the Orioles are), and the Braves start to make some noise in the NL East. Still, it’s hard to avoid the fact that there have been some truly pointless moves made this week by executives who should know better.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: How much longer must Red Sox fans suffer through Dennis Eckersley? This is actually a case in favor of him sticking around at NESN; if he was just full of inappropriate slips of the tongue, I could enjoy him. Instead, his color commentary gives Joe Morgan a run for his poorly-earned money.
Much-needed Journalistic Smackdown of the Week: Joe Posnanski ridicules Steve Phillips and those who make up subjective criteria to insist great players aren’t that good.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? It’s hardly news, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be criticized: the Cubs should never, ever have given Aaron Miles a major-league deal, much less a two-year contract at almost five million dollars. Miles is a fringe bench player who, at 32, is coasting on a flukishly productive 2008 (a year in which he almost posted a league-average OPS). This year, he’s regressed to the worst offensive production in his career, reaching base at just a .253 clip. On top of that, his only extra-base hits are six doubles, putting his slugging percentage at a paltry .269 – third worst among NL second basemen with more than 10 at-bats. Even if we give him an extra double and four extra singles to bring his BABIP up to .300, his OPS stands at a nauseating .636. This isn’t bad luck, this isn’t a bad start – this is a bad baseball player. That Chicago is paying him like an above-average bench presence – let alone giving him 21 starts! – is an insult to the intelligence of Cubs fans.
Mistake of the Week: I love Kevin Towers, but… this has not been a good week for the Padres’ GM. His reported trade bounty for starter Jake Peavy was, at best, a fair return – which begs the question of why he’d bother to take it rather than hold onto his under-contract ace. Still, it was the sort of deal that would have only slightly disappointed me had Peavy not vetoed the trade. But one under-the-radar trade did occur that makes me wonder what Towers is thinking. Disclosure of possible compromise to objectivity: my fondness for outfielder Jody Gerut is biased by having met the man at a Fall League game. But while his offensive production this year is underwhelming, it’s also out of line with what he demonstrated last year with only a little BABIP luck. More importantly, he has brought tremendous defensive value and helped cover the spacious outfield at Petco Park. Scott Hairston deserves more playing time, but Chase Headley isn’t gonna be a defensive asset in the outfield, and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff has been a far greater offensive disappointment than Gerut.
Still, despite being the least of San Diego’s problems, Gerut’s hardly a guy who should be considered untouchable in trade talks. The real problem here is the return: outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr. is not the hitter his father was. He’s had a solid 2009 at AAA, but it’s his fourth year at the level, and he’s never demonstrated a consistent ability to get on base or hit for power. His moderate speed might make him a fun player to watch, but his most optimistic upside would seem to be a slightly slower Juan Pierre. Unless Towers is assembling young talent for a larger deal, my faith is considerably shaken.
Underrated Cut: Like the Padres, the Marlins are a generally smart ballclub. They undermined my faith in them this offseason, but there’s little reason to think they’re a bumbling group of incompetents. Yet that’s the only way one can really justify the demotion of starter Ricky Nolasco, who will reportedly make at least two starts at AAA before returning to Miami. On one hand, the Marlins don’t have much to lose; after a hot start, they’ve fallen into a pretty solid fourth place. On the other hand, a tiny dent in Ricky Nolasco’s service time isn’t worth putting the big-league team at a considerable disadvantage this early in the season. Nolasco’s ERA stands at an atrocious 9.07, but I simply don’t think he’s been terrible as much as bad and unlucky. His strikeout and walk rates are in line with those of useful pitchers, and his XFIP stands at an acceptable 4.32. The surge in line drives and dip in grounders are worrisome, but to me, it’s far too early in the year to conclude that those wouldn’t return to normal.
Perhaps Nolasco has lost his ability to command his stuff, but the bottom line is this: If I’m wrong, the Marlins would keep him around to continue giving up a few too many homers. If I’m right, they’re insulting a 26-year-old who was their best pitcher last year, hurting his confidence while giving him no reason to feel any loyalty to the team when he reaches free agency. And for what? An early look at the raw, erratic arm of Sean West? With Rick VandenHurk and Anibal Sanchez on the DL, there’s really no way anyone the Marlins promote will be as good as Nolasco. The six-year cycle has been broken; 2009 is not going to be a fun year for Marlins fans.
Underrated Addition: Not to end this on such a negative note, it’s worth noting that the wildcard-contending Reds finally did something about their thin outfield. After a quarter season of Darnell McDonald – an experiment whose failure should surprise no one – the team recalled Jonny Gomes, who declined sharply after a great rookie campaign in 2005, but remains young enough, at 28, to be a very good hitter. While he struck out quite a bit at AAA Louisville, he could add some power to the Reds’ bench, and at least be an upgrade from McDonald. He and Laynce Nix give Cincy what I believe is their best shot of winning this year, and that dark horse chance at a playoff berth gives me my only real interest in the NL Central.
better days shining through
February 25, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 4 CommentsTags: Reds
9. Cincinnati Reds (75.66% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 25
Added: Cs Ramon Hernandez and Humberto Cota; RPs Arthur Rhodes and Aaron Fultz; 1B Daryle Ward; OFs Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, and Jacque Jones; CF Willy Taveras
Lost: RPs Jeremy Affeldt, Gary Majewski, and Kent Mercker; CF Corey Patterson; SPs Matt Belisle and Josh Fogg; OF Ryan Freel; INF Andy Phillips; Cs Paul Bako, Javier Valentin, and Ryan Jorgensen (retired); IF/OF Jolbert Cabrera
Strengths: The Reds aren’t good enough for a playoff run yet, but it’s increasingly difficult to ignore them. They are well-stocked with cheap young hitters like RF Jay Bruce (22 in April), 1B Joey Votto (25), and Chris Dickerson (27 in April), and even some of their more tenured (and therefore costly – but potentially valuable trade chips) position players are still quite young – 3B Edwin Encarnacion is 26, and 2B Brandon Phillips 27. While too many of these bats are unproven or simply not there quite yet, and complementary “veteran” pieces like CF Willy Taveras and SS Alex Gonzalez aren’t going to help the lineup, it’s hard not to imagine the upside of Bruce, Votto, and Dickerson for 2011 or so. If the team invests in the right free agents once some of their bigger contracts are gone, they could very well overtake the Cubs and Brewers atop the NL Central. As it is, they’ve gotten some respectable reserve possibilities on minor league contracts – Jonny Gomes and Laynce Nix for outfield depth, veteran Daryle Ward at first base – to join a bench that already looked strong with Jeff Keppinger competing with Gonzalez for time at short and Jerry Hairston a possibility to platoon with Dickerson or to replace Phillips.
In a high-scoring ballpark, the Reds’ pitching doesn’t get the credit it should. While veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo no longer look like above average at the front of the rotation, leaving the Reds without any real ace, the team has several young starters who could emerge as #2 options, and already look to be solid options behind their older teammates. Edinson Volquez’s All-Star first half from 2008 was incredibly flukish, but he looks to have gotten past the long ball problems that plagued him in the minors (the walks are still there, but no worse than the control problems of numerous rookies), and even a repeat of his peripherals from his down second half would make him quite valuable. 23-year-old Johnny Cueto similarly fell off the radar after the first few starts of his rookie year, but already looks like a very nice #4. Making the starting depth all the more impressive is that the big league club has yet to see any major contributions from much-hyped prospect Homer Bailey, underhyped Matt Maloney, or trade acquisition Micah Owings, each of whom could prove to be useful as cheap back-of-the-rotation options this year.
Weaknesses: With so many young players, there’s bound to be a disappointment or two (Dickerson is a good candidate to fall short in 2009, though platooning him could help keep his numbers up); on the pitching staff, I’m inclined to believe that their depth is a good risk management strategy. But their offense could easily be a weakness, despite so many impressive young bats; I’ve focused on the great promise there without mentioning Bruce’s high ratio of strikeouts to walks, nor Votto’s high BABIP. Potential is not reality; the Reds have question marks just like anyone else, even if many of those question marks may lead to very good answers in the future.
Something of which we can be more certain: neither Gonzalez nor Taveras will contribute much of anything, and no club wants a quarter of its lineup to be almost automatic outs. Hernandez was a nice pickup for a team with nothing resembling a major-league catcher, but his bat saw a sharp decline the last two years, and despite a solid history behind the plate, he led all catchers in steals allowed with 99; if 2008 wasn’t a fluke in how quickly he’s aging, the Reds may have to rely on Ryan Hanigan despite the veteran’s presence. Encarnacion’s poor defense and lack of improvement at the plate in recent years are also a significant concern; while he’s still young enough to take his hitting to another level, his glove will keep him from being an above-average third baseman unless he does. If Walt Jocketty had been GM of this team for a few more years, I wouldn’t be as concerned about these potential shortcomings, but some of the contracts signed by his predecessor, Wayne Krivsky, give the team limited payroll flexibility.
My Stake: While I don’t like the two-year contract given to one-tool CF Willy Taveras, the speedster’s signing looks to be but a small bump in the road for new GM; the Hernandez acquisition filled a position of significant need at a negligible cost, the trade of a few months of 1B Adam Dunn for SP Micah Owings helped the rotation’s depth, and most of Cincy’s free agent signings are low-risk deals with decent – not pennant-winning, but still considerable – upside. All of this offsets the Willy Taveras contract quite a bit. The only real problem that I have with the Reds is the continuing presence of manager Dusty Baker, whose preference for veteran talent and stolen base attempts over the best available players and “base-clogging” players who have the temerity not to make outs may not fit particularly well with the Reds’ roster. Baker’s outspoken opposition to high-walk, low-speed players makes him one of my most intensely disliked managers, and enough to hold the Reds back several spots from where their front office and players might place them.
‘09 Predictions: As the “strengths” section may have made clear, I’m quite bullish on the Reds’ youth movement. If I had to pick a dark horse team this year to make like the Rays and go from fifth place to the postseason, it would be Cincinnati. Realistically, however, I have to hedge my bets a bit and my (still very optimistic) call is that the 2009 Reds will win 80 games. But since I don’t see the Brewers or Cardinals as sure things to get over .500, I would not be at all surprised to see the Queen City get some national respect in a competitive push for the wild card, even if someone out of the East ends up taking it from them.
‘08 rooting hierarchy ii: why do you let me stay here?
March 25, 2008 at 9:41 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Astros, Bill Bavasi, Dusty Baker, Giants, Mariners, Reds
While the Dodgers (and to a lesser extent lately, the Yankees) mask their front office blunders with high payrolls and overpaid players who still help their teams win, I can see no reason why the GMs of these teams keep their jobs.
27. Cincinnati Reds 10.34% unweighted; 4.97% weighted (0/10/14.29).
Last year: #26. 72-90, 5th in NL Central.
In 2008: Just when promising young players like Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce looked ready to contribute, the Reds went and hired veteran-favoring manager Dusty Baker. Baker, who opposes “clogging the bases” by letting slow players walk, is rather stubborn in his ignorance of reality, and is likely to hurt slow, walk-loving Adam Dunn’s production (as well as impede the development of Votto and Bruce). Amusingly, bullpen-fetishist GM Wayne Krivsky let the Padres (by way of the Marlins) pick up reliever Carlos Guevara in the Rule 5 draft, instead choosing to invest the team’s modest resources in “proven closer” Francisco Cordero and, less expectedly but more effectively, Jeremy Affeldt. The Reds have enough young players that a surge past 80 wins is possible, but under Baker, it seems particularly unlikely.
Prediction: 76-86, 3rd in NL Central
26. Seattle Mariners 13.79% unweighted; 12.58% weighted (0/20/12.5).
Last year: #20. 88-74, 2nd in AL West.
In 2008: I must confess that I did a bit of a double-take when I compared my Mariners prediction (which assumes the team refuses to give up early, and trades away its remaining prospects in a futile run at the division) to last year’s record. But as it turns, out, 2007’s “success” was largely the work of smoke and mirrors; the team was outscored by 19 runs over the course of the season. Even so, they decided to go for it in 2008, and Seattle fans will rue that decision for years to come. At first, trading reliever George Sherrill and prospect Adam Jones (and additional pitching prospects) for starter Erik Bedard didn’t seem that terrible. But on a team with many fading veterans, the 22-year-old Jones was one of few bright spots for the future, while Sherrill remains one of the most fantastic underrated relievers in baseball. Mortgaging the future to win in the present is one thing, but the Mariners essentially gave up their best prospect for a small upgrade whose salary makes the deal almost a wash for 2008. GM Bill Bavasi seems to have no idea where his team is in the cycle of building toward competitiveness, and with that in mind, how can he possibly know where the team is going? Combining an affinity for overrated, mediocre, and useless veterans with an undervaluation of young talent, Bavasi has scuttled the Mariners organization and gives no indication of an ability to right his ship.
Prediction: 80-82, 2nd in AL West
25. Houston Astros 17.24% unweighted; 16.76% weighted (20/10/21.43).
Last year: #27. 73-89, 4th in NL Central.
In 2008: In an active offseason, the Astros signed several players (Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, Doug Brocail, and the returning Brad Ausmus and Mark Loretta) who are expected to contribute next to nothing on the field. Yet wasted roster spots are less notable than some of the trades the club made to no apparent benefit. In a series of inexplicable events, the team ended up dealing away inconsistent closer Brad Lidge, solid setup man Chad Qualls, underrated 30-year-old outfielder Luke Scott, and assorted prospects, gaining “proven closer” Jose Valverde, former steroid-using 32-year-old shortstop Miguel Tejada, fourth outfielder Michael Bourn, and middle reliever Geoff Geary. The combination of Scott, Qualls, and Lidge will make less than Tejada alone in 2008, and the up-and-coming Scott has five more seasons before free agency. I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how a team could make such moves – actively playing the trade market but not helping itself at all – but there is no possible empirical, analytical justification.
Prediction: 70-92, 6th in NL Central
24. San Francisco Giants 20.69% unweighted; 21.54% weighted (25/18.18/21.43).
Last year: #19. 71-91, 5th in NL West.
In 2008: The Giants’ biggest move this winter was the damaging yet understandable decision to let Barry Bonds go as a free agent. It’s not so much Bonds’ criminal charges that justify the move as it is San Francisco’s general futility; the team’s inability to get to .500 is about as sure a thing as there is in sports, and spending extra money on an annoying veteran didn’t make that much sense. Of course, GM Brian Sabean would have been well served by remembering this before throwing more than five million dollars at 41-year-old Omar Vizquel, who can’t hit and is already injured, and giving a five-year contract to Aaron Rowand, whose defense has slipped and whose offense is unlikely to return to its 2007 level. When we consider the unimpressive non-prospects who round out the roster and last winter’s insane contract to Barry Zito, it seems that only their futility and harmlessness (and the superb Tim Lincecum) let a team with the incompetence of the Giants rank this highly on my list.
Prediction: 71-91, 5th in NL West
2007 rooting hierarchy ii: because i’m bad, i’m bad, i’m really really bad
March 27, 2007 at 11:55 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a CommentTags: Angels, Astros, Cubs, Orioles, Reds, Rockies, Wayne Krivsky
Today’s installment: clubs who are disliked but not outright hated. These teams are generally incompetent but either media-adored, or in contention thanks to a short-sighted plan or luck.
27. Houston Astros The franchise is heavily reliant on a handful of core players, and GM Tim Purpura made his big splash in the form of LF Carlos Lee, whose signing is projected as this winter’s most damaging contract. Instead, he should have put that money into a solid starter like John Thomson and signed a cheaper and/or better outfielder (such as J.D. Drew).
26. Cincinnati Reds “Wayne Krivsky” is something of a code phrase for a person who is obsessed with relief pitching. Last season, GM Krivsky dealt talented young hitters Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to Washington for some insignificant bullpen arms. That alone doesn’t damn him, but this winter’s moves (including adding reliever Dave Weathers) were next to insignificant, and certainly aren’t the sort of things Krivsky has to do to right the ship. Hurting the team even more is just how little negative publicity the near-giveaway of Kearns received.
25. Baltimore Orioles Incompetent and a lengthy track record of it. While they’re too irrelevant to really hate, my mind is boggled by the caliber of players on whom they choose to spend their money. This winter, it was a bizarre and expensive bullpen upgrade that left them scraping together the likes of Steve Trachsel, Jay Payton, and Aubrey Huff to (supposely) fill other voids.
24. Chicago Cubs Well, at least they got rid of manager Dusty Baker. That aside, the team spent its winter on an ill-advised free-agent splurge. The additions should help the team contend, but that doesn’t justify the money they gave to Alfonso Soriano after a career year in 2006, much less the pricey signings of SPs Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly, who are (to put this gently) not very good.
23. Colorado Rockies The most notable thing here, from a non-baseball standpoint, is the team’s “let’s be overtly Christian!” philosophy. I’m not ardently anti-Christian, but religion should be a private decision, not a workplace consideration. That aside, the team recently reminded me why I used to dislike them – Byung-Hyun Kim is being screwed out of a roster spot by the likes of Josh Fogg. GM Dan O’Dowd just makes too many huge mistakes, and the religious stuff bumps them down a few extra spots.
22. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim You know, it’s hard for me to put the Angels this low on the list. The team has offed the Yankees in multiple postseasons this decade (2005 and my predicted stunner in 2002), and for that I must express my gratitude. But, a solid farm system aside, they’re very questionable judges of talent, with Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews, and Shea Hillenbrand among their below-average lineup. It’s not that the Angels are total idiots – it’s that with the money they have, they could be so much better if GM Bill Stoneman was complemented by better evaluators of major-league hitters.
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