summer’s here and the time is right
June 28, 2009 at 7:23 pm | In Baseball | 2 CommentsTags: Andy Sonnanstine, Chris Perez, Coco Crisp, David Price, Indians, Mariners, Mark DeRosa, PTBNL, Rays, Reds, Royals, Ryan Langerhans, Willy Taveras
My off week has left me rejuvenated and able to do some of the most non-Soxy baseball writing I’ve done in months. Here’s to being well-rested!
Underrated Addition: Seattle acquired AAAA-type outfielder Ryan Langerhans from Washington for more-certainly-a-minor-league-bat utility type Mike Morse. Langerhans is the older of the pair, but his AAA numbers certainly suggest he could merit a chance with a big-league club. With Endy Chavez injured, the Mariners have an outfield opening the Nationals were unlikely to see; if Langerhans can post a .350 OBP with a little pop while platooning with Wladimir Balentien, the M’s may end up with a better lineup than they had with the speed-oriented Chavez. For the Nationals, Morse may get a chance at second thanks to lousy years from Anderson Hernandez and Ronnie Belliard, but he’s no better than a fallback option for an awful club; Seattle clearly comes out ahead in this swap. A final interesting note on the trade: a recent fan chat floated the idea, and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik clearly liked it.
Schadenfreude of the Week, Non-Governor Division: I’m no longer worried that the Royals’ mistake-riddled offseason could be rewarded with a playoff berth on the merits of a few pitchers, but I’m still taking a bit of delight at how strongly one of those moves has come back to bite Kansas City. Former perpetually-whining Red Sox OF Coco Crisp will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this week, making his expensive contract (including an $8 million option for 2010) all the more ridiculous an acquisition for the Royals. The pitcher the Royals traded for Crisp this winter, Ramon Ramirez, is quietly having a very weak season by his standards, but with injuries and poor years starting to take their toll on KC’s staff, it’s hard not to think they’d take Ramirez back in a heartbeat. For context, the Royals’ pitching staff has become so thin that Bruce Chen has finally made it back to the majors. He’s earned that shot with solid work at AAA, but a simple fact remains: he’s Bruce Chen.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? I like the Reds. No longer under the reign of a grossly incompetent GM, they’ve started making moves that look shrewd to me, and contrasted against an NL Central otherwise devoid of wisdom, they look even better.
But Willy Taveras was a mistake when the Reds signed him, and now the worst-case scenario is playing out with a $4 million salary looming in 2010. Taveras has never been a good hitter, but the bottom has truly fallen out this season: his .276 on-base percentage is inexcusable, and his .288 slugging percentage is similarly awful. He’s managed just one home run and 14 walks this year, striking out 41 times. The numbers are no worse than Cincinnati SS Alex Gonzalez, but Gonzalez has a poor BABIP in his defense, contributes more in the field, isn’t leading off, and is an indictment of the prior front office regime. The Reds also don’t have an indisputably better option than Gonzalez (words to live by: no matter how bad things get, Paul Janish is never the answer) in the infield.
In deferring to Taveras’ high salary and speedy reputation, however, Cincy is benching not one, but three superior hitters. Chris Dickerson has a strong defensive reputation and the numbers to back it up; Laynce Nix has a lousy on-base percentage but has slugged quite a bit, and still makes fewer outs than Taveras; Jonny Gomes has made the most of minimal playing time and shown decent patience as well as a bit of pop. At the very least, Dickerson and Nix should both start versus righties, something the Reds seem to be doing recently. But against southpaws, Taveras may be worse than either lefty hitter, and under no circumstances should he lead off. Knowing how Reds manager Dusty Baker loves speedy ballplayers, I fear the front office needs to take the Taveras option off his hands entirely if he’s ever going to avoid 500 at-bats.
Mistake of the Week: Consider two young pitchers:
Player A, at 26, has likely reached his potential: a back-of-the-rotation arm with mediocre stuff, he relies on stellar control (averaging less than two walks per nine innings since 2007). He moved steadily through the minors and experienced success at each level before being promoted, and his home run problems this year seem flukish, considering he’s posting the best ground ball rate of his short career.
Player B, 23, has all kinds of “stuff.” Scouts love his potential, the media salivates every time he takes the mound, and even a statistically minded fan can understand his appeal. Yet the results have never been there – he racked up plenty of strikeouts as he sped through the minors, but frequently accompanied them with walks or home runs. In the majors, he has worse HR problems than Player A and a lower ground ball rate, and he’s walking 6 batters per 9 innings (which results in some short starts that tax a mediocre bullpen). While I’m loath to use clichés like “learn to pitch,” he is by all appearances very raw, and could benefit immensely from more time in the minors to convert his talent into results.
Both players are starters for Tampa Bay, and when Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list, one of them had to go. The Rays optioned down Player A, Andy Sonnanstine, keeping Player B, David Price; it’s a decision that I find hard to defend, particularly considering that Sonnanstine has pitched better lately while Price has had just one start (May 30 against Minnesota) that I would call “good.” The Rays seem like one of the smarter organizations in baseball, so perhaps they’re hoping that Price will increase his trade value by pitching in the majors. But if they’re simply betting on the guy who throws hard to be better than the guy who throws strikes for the rest of 2009, I think they’re making a dreadful mistake (and as a Sox fan, I thank them for it).
Question of the Week: Who’s the Player To Be Named Later? Allow me to preface this evaluation of yesterday’s trade with the following: Mark DeRosa is overrated. He’s a good player, sure, and he’s turned it on after a sluggish, low BABIP-plagued start. But he’s 34, and while he can play many positions, the defensive jack of all trades is a master of… well, not many. There’s value in his versatility, sure, but it looks pretty clear that 2008 was the peak of his career.
DeRosa, however, has been hyped for most of the season, particularly since it became clear that the Cleveland Indians were going nowhere in 2009, and was a rumored target for numerous teams due to his versatility. Trading him to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later saves the extremely “frugal” Indians over two million dollars in a non-contending season, so it’s far from a disaster.
But Perez, even in the weaker National League, has had serious walk problems and, like ex-Cardinal Anthony Reyes before him, struggled with the long ball. He’s not ready to help the Tribe yet, and he’s far from a sure thing to turn into a valuable reliever down the road. Perez looks far more like a secondary player in a deal for someone as coveted as DeRosa, so if the player to be named turns out to be a low minor leaguer or mediocre upper-level guy, the Indians will be in grave danger of slipping even farther down my rooting hierarchy.
today’s music ain’t got the same soul
May 3, 2009 at 9:50 pm | In Baseball, Today's Music Sucks | 5 CommentsTags: Cardinals, Dan Giese, Indians, Matt LaPorta, Mike MacDougal, Nationals, P.J. Walters, Royals, Yankees, Zack Greinke
Ever the dynamic, unpredictable person, I’ve incorporated a few of David’s suggested categories, added one of my own, and thrown together another couple pages of baseball insights. We’re surprisingly low on Red Sox-related things, but with upcoming series against my hometown Indians and the loathed Yankees and Rays, I’m sure to make up for that next week.
Rhetorical Question of the Week: What the hell is this?
Just because you occasionally hit notes that make you sound like Bono doesn’t mean you should subject the world to your work*. Whoever thought it would be a good idea to play this before games at Progressive Field needs to be fired. Was ownership too cheap to spring for the rights to “Cleveland Rocks?” What exactly is the story here? (And lest anyone say I’m just negative about all team-specific music that isn’t entrenched in baseball history, new songs CAN be done effectively when assigned to people who have musical experience beyond Guitar Hero. Case in point:)
I mean, come on. “It’s Tribe Time Now?”
Underrated Addition: It was just last week that I pilloried the Nationals for demoting a reliever with lousy 2009 results, but they seem to have realized where their standards need to be. Case in point: Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal, better known as Mike. MacDougal was released by the White Sox after starting 2009 with a line that makes Javier Lopez look effective, but with no hope of contending and a bullpen already dealing with injury issues, Washington was wise to take a chance on him. To say he has control issues is like saying Oedipus had some family problems, but in the last four MLB seasons, MacDougal has allowed just 4 home runs in 92 innings. For a team like Washington, he should quickly become a bullpen fixture; the worst-case scenario I see is cheap innings from the pen, with the upside that a pitching-starved team could make trade inquiries once MacDougal re-establishes himself.
Why Do You Still Have A Job? As seems to be a new trend, this section of my posts is again a rare look at an unliked NL club. This week’s unvaluable player is Cardinals reliever/spot starter P.J. Walters, who has as many innings on the young season as closer Ryan Franklin, and more than several potentially decent setup men. That total is, of course, skewed by the one start he made, a surprisingly solid four-inning effort in Chicago. In the six-plus innings since, however, he has descended to abominable levels of futility on the mound, with four walks and three home runs to just three strikeouts (and, for those who give weight to defense-dependent stats, a whopping nine hits). Walters has remained in St. Louis’s bullpen while better arms toil at AAA, including those of Brad Thompson and Jess Todd. While he’s only 24, Walters’ minor league numbers give little reason to think he’s about to turn a corner – while he posted solid enough totals in 2007 (mostly in A ball), his 2008 was plagued by 22 home runs in 158 innings – not acceptable in the majors, and certainly not to AA and AAA competition. On top of that, his control eroded at AAA, and he surrendered 62 walks in 122 innings. Perhaps his success in the low minors (coming at a relatively old age) is reason to think he can be a useful piece in time, but there’s no excuse for the Cardinals keeping him in the bigs; even if they lack confidence in their internal options, they’d be better off trying to resurrect the career of Mike Timlin than trusting Walters with meaningful innings.
Perfect Hindsight: On April 4, the Yankees designated pitcher Dan Giese for assignment. It was a questionable move, considering their lack of a long man and the unproven nature of some of the arms they were carrying, but not one that figured to be a moment of regret. Not even a month later, I have to believe that New York GM Brian Cashman thinks back wistfully to spring training. While Giese has had some problems in his time with the A’s, his track record is solid enough (including a frustratingly respectable 2008), and he has still outpitched those who took his job as the final man in the Yankees’ pen. Now, as they prepare for the Red Sox’ first visit to their new stadium, the Yankees are forced to call up pitchers like Anthony Claggett (who has yet to establish himself at the upper levels of the minors, and was responsible for much of the Indians’ 14-run inning two weeks ago) to bridge the gap to underwhelming setup man Jonathan Albaladejo. Their offense, even sans A-Rod, is potent enough to be considered a playoff contender, but with a more reliable innings-eater available, they would be downright terrifying.
Shrewd Move of the Week (Or “Overdue and Obvious Call-Up of the Week”): The Indians finally picked the right outfielder to aggressively promote, sending down the disappointing Trevor Crowe for Matt LaPorta, whose torrid hitting at AAA seemed too valuable to be overlooked by a club that consistently fielded only two good outfielders. Though LaPorta struggled at AA last year after the trade that sent him to Cleveland for CC Sabathia, he should quickly learn to outhit Crowe, Ben Francisco, and veteran David Dellucci. Considering the Tribe’s pitching troubles (and continued insistence on leaving Jeremy Sowers at AAA), an earlier call-up wouldn’t have helped them avoid falling into a deep hole in the standings, but finally shuffling the pieces (including the promotion of 2B Luis Valbuena) should at least give them the best major league lineup they can muster going forward in 2009. With so many teams ahead of them, and unable to string together consecutive wins, it’ll be incredibly tough for the Indians to get into the playoff hunt. But now, they’re finally using the right players to make that effort.
Player of the Week: I continue to doubt that the Royals can hang around at the top of the AL Central for the whole season, but that’s largely due to an underachieving offense – including a black hole at shortstop and the due-for-regression Alberto Callaspo and Willie Bloomquist. As far as the pitching goes, however, I’m increasingly impressed, and could see the Royals’ staff being one of the better in baseball. The highlight, as anyone following baseball this year knows, is Zack Greinke. Greinke finally wound up with a nonzero ERA this week, but his numbers are still staggering enough to merit every bit of praise he’s received – and this is no trifling praise, considering how much I try to avoid talking about players everyone else talks about. Having allowed a .286 average on balls in play, he isn’t having his stats inflated by the defense behind him. He has more strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (11.00) than any American League starter, and is 11th in walks per 9 (2.00). The worst one can say is that he’s been lucky not to give up a single home run, but even accounting for that, he posts an xFIP under 3.00. His team has won every game he’s started, two of which he also finished. Greinke has finally lived up to his stuff and become a true ace; considering that the well-documented issues he’s had have had nothing to do with his physical health, there may not be a more valuable pitching commodity in baseball.
* Yes, this admonishment does apply to Bono himself on occasion, though I’d like to hear U2 help Africa with “Hey Hey Hey, H.I.V./It’s AIDS Time Now.”
why don’t we ever believe ourselves?
April 26, 2009 at 11:08 pm | In Baseball | 3 CommentsTags: Braves, Brian Bannister, David Ross, Erik Bedard, Giants, Mariners, Nationals, Royals, Saul Rivera, Travis Ishikawa
We’re coming in close to the deadline here, but it has been a busy weekend – a little time at The Prog (special shout-out to Suege, whose disposable income is exceeded only by his generosity, or maybe vice-versa), a little spring cleaning, some family commitments, plus some four-hour games too riveting to allow multitasking. But if ever there were a time when I could blog intensely about baseball, it’s now, when the Red Sox are making like Adam Lambert and looking so far beyond the competition that… wait, an American Idol analogy? That’s the best I can do?
Clearly, writing everything but this intro drained me, and that’s even though I lack enough conviction in any of my reflections to make a prediction this week; I’m as worn down as the Yankees’ bullpen. Hey, that’s more like it…!
Underrated Cut (Or, “This Is As Pointless As Not Bothering To Pick Up The Hundred-Dollar Bill You Just Dropped In A Puddle”): Not surprisingly, the Washington Nationals aren’t the brightest team out there. In the case of reliever Saul Rivera, their bad luck saved them from their stupidity; after being optioned down, Rivera returned to Washington when fellow reliever Joe Beimel ended up on the disabled list. There’s no question that Rivera has had a terrible year – with two home runs and as many walks as strikeouts in under eight innings, he’s hurt the Nationals tremendously. But sending him to the minors was a premature move; after all, his problems have come in a very small sample size, and he plays for the Nationals. Rivera was a solid late-innings guy in the past two seasons, and while he is too old to turn into anything more than that, he has plenty of value to a franchise starved for pitching. Instead, the hapless club seems to prefer retreads like Kip Wells and Julian Tavarez, or respectively failed and iffy prospects like Mike Hinckley and Garrett Mock – whose walks and strikeouts are no better than Rivera’s this year. That the team immediately recalled Rivera, whose bad outcomes may stem largely from a .481 BABIP, after placing Beimel on the DL would seem to validate that there isn’t an injury issue at hand, and that they simply became impatient and thought Rivera wasn’t one of their seven best relievers. It’s very little wonder that they’re baseball’s losingest team right now, and I can only hope that a club like San Diego is inquiring about Rivera at a low price.
Underrated Addition (Or, “Incompetent People Haven’t Turned To A Choice This Obvious Since Donald Rumsfeld Was Secretary of Defense”): There weren’t many players changing teams this week, so I’ll highlight Brian Bannister’s return to the big-league club in Kansas City as a very good, if very overdue, move. While the Royals’ pitching has been more than a little surprising in its quality this year, there was no reason to keep Horacio Ramirez as a fifth starter when the 28-year-old Bannister was performing adequately at Triple-A Omaha. Bannister had significant home run problems last year, but his solid rookie year in 2007 gives me reason to think he can still be a nice back-of-the-rotation arm. At the very least, he’s a safer bet than the perpetually usefulness-challenged Ramirez – and in a division with so many contenders, even one win of improvement could make a difference if the Royals somehow keep getting by with such a weak offense. (For the record, I still scoff at their status as a trendy postseason dark horse, but with Zack Greinke getting help from Gil Meche and Kyle Davies [!] at the front of the rotation, it’s not as absurd a concept as it was a month ago.)
Why Do You Still Have A Job? (Or, “They Need This Guy Like Kat Dennings Needs A Tan”) The Javier Lopez Award for Excellence in Futility could very easily be called “Giant of the Week,” and I was sorely tempted to just give it to San Francisco GM Brian Sabean. But because monumentally bad ballplayers can quickly become non-issues, I’ll err in favor of spotlighting one of several deserving “baseball players:” first baseman Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa played seven seasons in the Giants’ farm system, and rarely showed much reason to think of him as a top prospect. It’s not that he has no record of hitting (2008 was a career year), but that his defensive deficiencies limit him to playing first (if that; at this point, he may not cut it even there). As a first baseman, reasonable hitting expectations from his minor league record would make him an awful starter… and his 2009 year has been terrible beyond any expectations. In 42 at-bats, he has managed just nine hits – and only two that weren’t singles. His on-base percentage is the worst among MLB first basemen with over 5 at-bats, and his slugging percentage is in the bottom five. With his thirteen strikeouts to one walk, his average on balls in play stands at a very reasonable .310, giving no reason to believe this dreadful start is just bad luck. With no homers and so little plate discipline, there’s no explanation other than “he’s playing horribly,” and no excuse for the Giants not to simply sign a veteran until Ishikawa shows that he can come close to replacement level.
Question of the Week: Is Erik Bedard back? Yes. Bedard missed most of his first season in Seattle thanks to shoulder problems, but through four starts in 2009, he is every bit the ace for whom they believed they traded several very good young players. With more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and just more than a tenth as many walks, Bedard has a perfectly sustainable BABIP of .294. The only way in which he has been lucky is the low rate of home runs on fly balls, but even with a normalized rate, Bedard should complement Felix Hernandez very well at the front of the rotation. There is, of course, the caveat of small sample size, but Bedard’s dominance is as valid as anything one can conclude in April. His value doesn’t absolve former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi of a bad trade – the thirty-year-old is heading into free agency, and came at far too high a cost of younger, cost-controlled talent – but gives new GM Jack Zduriencik an All-Star caliber arm to keep or deal as he sees fit.
Player of the Week (Or, “I Haven’t Seen Anything This Hard-Hitting Since That CNN Reporter Showed How Clueless Those Tea Partiers Were”): It should be noted that this award is by no means an objective reflection on who has had the best week, but rather a spotlight on someone who has made a large impression this week. Objective measures of hot weeks are the sort of unequivocal facts that have made me hesitant to blog about baseball, so while it’s hardly the best analytical method, it’s nice to just take a player who may not be getting his due and give him, in my tiny corner of cyberspace, that due.
Braves catcher David Ross was limited to eight at-bats with the Red Sox last year, and because I felt he was shortchanged, I’m pleased to see him hitting this year – not to spite Boston, who are doing quite nicely with a resurgent Jason Varitek, but because he is too good a player to stay so unnoticed. While, like everything here, it comes with the caveat that it’s a very small sample, his Atlanta career has gone amazingly well so far. In just eighteen at-bats, he has four extra-base hits, including two homers, and has walked six times to just four strikeouts. There’s no way he continues his .417 BABIP and posts a full-season OPS well over 1.000, but with Brian McCann on the DL, Ross may finally get the playing time to establish himself as one of baseball’s best backup backstops.
‘08 rooting hierarchy iii: everybody knows this is nowhere
March 26, 2008 at 10:36 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 CommentsTags: Brewers, Orioles, Phillies, Royals, Twins
I had expected to be too apathetic to write much about the 25-10 teams, and accordingly had more teams per post in this middle range. I’m starting to think that was a poor decision; while I have stronger feelings about teams at the extreme ends of the list, I feel still the need to write solid summaries of why the irrelevant, uninteresting teams ranked where they did. With so little pre-existing loyalty (or, more bluntly, interest), this group is prone to shifting a lot even with few transactions.
23. Kansas City Royals 24.14% unweighted; 23.75% weighted (25/22.22/25).
Last year: #16. 69-93, 5th in AL Central.
In 2008: For a while, it looked like the Royals were going to pull themselves out of a cycle of hopelessness and impotence. Such optimism should have been destroyed when Gil Meche was signed to a five-year deal last winter. Yet somehow, there was hope that Dayton Moore’s new leadership would turn the club around.
I give up. The Royals’ best move this winter was giving a responsible contract to Brett Tomko, who should be the their #4 starter. The rest of the offseason was spent overpaying mediocre relievers, both Japanese and American, and finally giving way too much money to Jose Guillen, a low-upside veteran whose contract and defense should negate any midseason trade value. Why do they even get to this spot on my hierarchy, then? The lack of expectations lets me go easy on them, and unlike in larger markets, there’s no risk of a blundering GM gaining the illusion of prescience when the team wins despite, not because of, his work.
Prediction: 69-93; 5th in AL Central
22. Milwaukee Brewers 29.31% unweighted; 33.64% weighted (40/25/28.57).
Last year: #9. 83-79, 2nd in NL Central.
In 2008: Maybe this is harsh; the Brewers did have the wisdom to sign Mike Cameron this winter, and young players like Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun are a testament to a capable player development system. Yet it almost feels like GM Doug Melvin is blindly flailing and simply getting lucky when things go right; his free agency signings include overpaying a post-prime Jeff Suppan, and I find a problem in simply being willing to give major league contracts to players like Gabe Kapler, Craig Counsell, and most appallingly Jason Kendall, who will receive over four million dollars in 2008. Milwaukee was so desperate to be rid of Johnny Estrada – an all around better catcher than Kendall – that they took on the salary of reliever Guillermo Mota. This mistake was further compounded Tuesday, when the club released Claudio Vargas, a better pitcher than Mota with a similar salary. In short, the team makes too many bizarre blunders to be redeemed by its young talent; they are no longer lovably futile, but instead competitive despite severe missteps.
Prediction: 86-76; 2nd in NL Central
21. Philadelphia Phillies 29.31% unweighted; 21.55% weighted (0/40.91/28.57).
Last year: #15. 89-73, 1st in NL East, lost NLDS.
In 2008: What can one really say about the Phillies? It’s easy to love their high-powered trio of infielders (Howard, Utley, and Rollins), and the sabermetric community has always wanted Pat Burrell to receive recognition for his consistent offensive production, even as infuriating and frustrating as his strikeouts and defense can be. But on the other side of the ball, the team is beyond lost; the majority of the pitching stuff is comprised of ridiculously old veterans, ridiculously bad veterans, and non-prospects. Instead of finding underpaid arms with good upsides, GM Pat Gillick threw money at unremarkable lefty J.C. Romero, traded Geoff Geary for Brad Lidge, and spent the rest of the winter shoring up the 4th-6th outfield spots.
Prediction: 82-80; 3rd in NL East
20. Minnesota Twins 34.48% unweighted; 36.13% weighted (50/22.22/37.5).
Last year: #12. 79-83, 3rd in AL Central.
In 2008: The Twins have been quietly competent in recent years, but in the first winter under a new GM, Minnesota displayed a damning lack of ambition. When they wanted touted-but-troubled Tampa Bay prospect Delmon Young, they were forced to surrender both 25-year-old starter Matt Garza and defense-oriented shortstop Jason Bartlett. When they finally moved ace Johan Santana, it was not for a major-league ready, unlikely-to-miss young player like the Yankees’ Philip Hughes or the Red Sox’ Jacoby Ellsbury, but for a group of riskier, less established prospects from the Mets. The team is too far from contending for their spare parts (trading for Craig Monroe? Really?) to matter, so their poor taste in free agents is almost irrelevant. Like other teams in this group, the Twins are too unremarkable for me to have any sense of loyalty based on the accomplishments of a departed GM.
Prediction: 76-86; 3rd in AL Central
19. Baltimore Orioles 37.93% unweighted; 35.13% weighted (25/44.44/37.5).
Last year: #25. 69-93, 4th in AL East.
In 2008: It’s easy to see what’s wrong with the Orioles, and no one can blame fans for staying away from a club whose ownership is so thoroughly unlikable. Yet when compared with some other teams’ offseasons, Baltimore’s recent history is fairly unobjectionable. Joining Nick Markakis (24, free agent in 2012) in the outfield are trade acquisitions Luke Scott (29, ‘13) and Adam Jones (22, ‘13). In the same deal that brought Jones – himself a fine bounty for starter Erik Bedard, given contract situations – the O’s added reliever George Sherrill, who, along with 2B Brian Roberts, should be a valuable trading chip during the season (If Baltimore were closer to contending, I would advocate keeping Sherrill – four seasons from free agency – but at age 30, he’s unlikely to be an asset by the time the Orioles will be concerned with “winning now.”). If- and with Baltimore’s history, any and all optimism must be very guarded – GM Andy MacPhail can keep being smarter than his predecessors, the Orioles may cease to be synonymous with failure.
Prediction: 70-92; 5th in AL East
2007 rooting hierarchy iii: i’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me?
March 28, 2007 at 3:21 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: Blue Jays, Bob Wickman, Braves, Giants, Gil Meche, J.P. Ricciardi, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, Ted Lilly
Today’s entry is a painfully tedious one: the below-average teams for whom I don’t see any reason to dislike.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates I have been reminded that I’m allowed to harbor some antipathy for an unconsummated Nate Cornejo/Mike Gonzalez trade that I overheard while at an Arizona Fall League game. But harboring Pirates antipathy is like holding a grudge against Dennis Kucinich or something – they’re too far from any sort of relevance to waste any thought.
20. Seattle Mariners David and Buck both see this as baseball’s third-least competent organization. It’s hard to disagree. But the rooting hierarchy isn’t about competence – the Mariners’ pitifulness, combined with a likable city and a few likable players, gets them all the way to the 33rd percentile.
19. San Francisco Giants Perhaps the ultimate case of likability prevailing in the face of incompetence, and almost entirely for city-based reasons. The players certainly aren’t favorites, and the ballpark, while scenic, isn’t an absolute great. But I just love San Francisco and, by extension, the team avoids being any lower. They sadly did allow the Cubs to sign SP Ted Lilly, so the dream of a Lilly-Cain double-header tandem and Veronica Mars promotion seems dead. It’s fair to say I have different dreams than, say, Gandhi.
18. Toronto Blue Jays What can I say about GM J.P. Ricciardi? Check that: what can I say about J.P. Ricciardi that isn’t a profanity? A former disciple of A’s GM Billy Beane, one expects stat-geekiness and competence. Instead, one gets flashes of genius (signing SPs Tomo Ohka and John Thomson to bargain contracts in an inflated market) in a record of horrible decisions (releasing Thomson in favor of proven failure Josh Towers, hugely overpaying the soon-past-peak Vernon Wells).
17. Atlanta Braves On organizational competence alone, one has to concede the Braves should be in the top 10 – they had a dynasty without overpaying and a solid farm system. But memories of their 1995 World Series triumph over the Indians remain painful, and more recently, they are using Bob Wickman, their third-best reliever, in what is assumed to be the most important bullpen role. “Begrudging respect” is the name of the game, though, as they also signed SP Mark Redman to a spectacularly small contract for what should be solid #4-5 starting.
16. Kansas City Royals Perhaps the icon of “too useless to dislike,” new Royals GM Dayton Moore has not done much to make me expect a turnaround, and gave SP Gil Meche one of the most mind-boggling contracts I have ever seen. It wasn’t an easy mistake to make – Meche is easily the worst signing of the winter when we factor in the “he’s terrible” consensus of stats and reputation. But still, the team has a scenic ballpark and is somewhat lovable in its lameness.
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no future, no future, no future for you
February 8, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 1 CommentTags: admitting I was "wrong", rebuttals to comments by strangers, Royals
26. Kansas City Royals (21.69% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 22
Added: CF Coco Crisp; 1B Mike Jacobs; SP Horacio Ramirez; RPs Kyle Farnsworth, Oscar Villarreal, Lenny DiNardo, Franquelis Osoria, and Doug Waechter; C J.R. House; IFs Willie Bloomquist and Luis Hernandez
Lost: RPs Ramon Ramirez, Leo Nunez, and Jeff Fulchino; 2B Mark Grudzielanek; OF Joey Gathright
Strengths: With the caveat that these are all high points of a very bad team, it’s worth noting that Kansas City’s rotation isn’t awful. Starter Gil Meche has a lot to do with that; while there was no defensible rationale for giving him a five-year deal before 2007, he has somehow become a thoroughly useful pitcher (that’s as close as I’m coming to conceding to your persuasive debating techniques, Bill). Paired with feel-good story Zack Greinke, who overcame depression and social anxiety to post a stellar 2007, he gives the Royals a 1-2 combo that, while by no means spectacular, is better than a team this bad would usually have.
3B Alex Gordon, 25, and DH Billy Butler, 23 in April, are still young and talented enough to turn into very good players.
Closer Joakim Soria, one of the Rule 5 draft’s best success stories, was wisely signed to an extension in May that should be a pittance next to his possible earnings in arbitration; this should be a rare case where the Royals can afford to hang on to a valuable player for the long term.
Weaknesses: The breakout season of SS Mike Aviles looks an awful lot like a BABIP-induced fluke; while he did have a power surge in his third season at AAA Omaha, apparently due to increased aggressiveness at the plate (his walk rate had never been lower), he also posted a .343 average on balls in play, after BABIPs of .297, .280, and .307 in prior years – and then had an astonishing .359 BABIP in his rookie year in the bigs. While it’s possible that speed, rather than luck, is to credit for these numbers, it seems like his aggressive approach coupled with more than his share of bloop singles to inflate his numbers.
The trades for Crisp and Jacobs did little to help the club; Crisp’s bat is unlikely to be a significant asset, and Jacobs’ offensive “contributions” – while his power is nice, his .299 OBP beat only Aaron Boone among last year’s first basemen – will be virtually nullified by his bad defense. More importantly, however, is the cost of these two players: relievers Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez, among the best in the ‘08 bullpen, were far too high a cost to pay for such questionable acquisitions – and have left the 2009 pen, beyond Soria, in a sorry state.
Perhaps most damning about the aforementioned trades: while Ramirez and Nunez will each make the minimum in 2009, Jacobs and Crisp will combine for over $8.5 million. This underscores what may be Kansas City’s most problematic trend: while playing under the constraints of a small-market budget, they recklessly invest in talent with incredibly low upside. This winter has seen them sign reliever Kyle Farnsworth to a deal larger than those given to younger and better pitchers including Brandon Lyon, Jeremy Affeldt, and starter Daniel Cabrera; last offseason was marked by Jose Guillen being granted a three-year, $36 million contract. Guillen goes into 2009 looking like a fourth outfielder, having gotten on base all of 30% of the time in the first year of his lucrative contract.
On top of this, constantly being out of contention has caused them to promote players too aggressively; if Gordon and Butler blossom in a couple of years, they may well be too expensive to keep (Gordon was promoted particularly early with very little upside to the move; Butler had a longer minor-league record, but still seemed insufficiently established to hurry up).
My Stake: The team’s reckless spending and fixation on mediocre players is well established; Greinke, sabermetrics-studying SP Brian Bannister, and the lovely Kauffman Stadium are truly the only things to like about this team.
‘09 Predictions: No surprises. The problem with the Royals isn’t a multitude of horrible players, nor is it young players simply underachieving relative to their true abilities. It is, rather, an abundance of players with track records and ages that make plain their mediocre upsides. The team signs guys who have little to no chance of offering significant help, while rushing their few intriguing prospects to the majors for no real reason. I’ve put them at the lowest win total I’m willing to predict for anyone: 70. If Gordon or Butler can break out, they may well beat that, but I won’t bet on it.