it was the heat of the moment

July 31, 2009 at 12:02 pm | In Baseball | 9 Comments
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Trade deadline live-ish blogging!

4:32: Whoa. Late in the game, Padres pull off biggest deal of the day. Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Peavy. Peavy’s locked down through 2012, but he’s currently injured, and that’s a lot of talent – mostly Poreda – for such a question mark. If the Padres wanted to shed payroll, they did a nice job doing so with no leverage against Chicago.

4:27: Is this an elaborate joke by a few writers on Twitter (notably Jon Heyman) and MLB Trade Rumors? Apparently, Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox, despite being on the DL for the last few months. This is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen this late in the game.

4:19: Chase Weems, not Austin Jackson, for Jerry Hairston. Much better for Yankees, alas; Weems would have to be a great defensive catcher for his offensive abilities to portend anything but minor league fodder. Reds also gave up too much for Scott Rolen – Edwin Encarnacion just isn’t that bad, and they gave up two near-ready arms in Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart. I don’t see future superstars there, but two solid relievers and Encarnacion looks steep, unless the Blue Jays are paying some of Rolen’s $10 million for 2010. That said, I am also jealous; I was hoping Rolen was Boston-bound if they could flip Lowell.

4:16: I’m a bit frustrated that the Red Sox didn’t go after Nick Johnson instead of Casey Kotchman, but it mighta taken too much time to find another taker for LaRoche. Plus, Kotchman’s defense essentially makes this a lateral move for 2009. Now, I’m just waiting for confirmation that Halladay’s staying in Toronto and that the Padres and Yankees have been stagnant.

4:09: Clarifying my last comment: I meant for Johnson and for the Marlins. Certainly not for the Nationals, as prospect Aaron Thompson is a pretty laughable return for Johnson. 22 and struggling at AA? Ugh.

4:03: Rumors of Nick Johnson to Marlins. I like this on both ends; very glad to see Florida actually going for it and Johnson moving to a possible contender.

3:58: Apparently not Austin Jackson for Hairston, and Rolen’s for Encarnacion plus a minor leaguer. Okay, back to Cincy not having a great day, but not a BAD day, depending on prospects.

3:48: Austin Jackson for Jerry Hairston? Looks like a big overpayment by Yankees; I’ll retract what I implied about Cincy not knowing what it’s doing if this report is accurate.

3:40: Rolen to Reds. Seems odd that they’re trying this “win now” stuff in Cincy while dealing a big piece of their bench (Hairston), and presumably Edwin Encarnacion heading north.

3:28: Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman? That’s a downgrade for the 2009 Red Sox, but cheaper in the future. Of course, Sox + cheap = WHY?

3:23: Stuff coming fast and furious now, but with no idea what prospects are involved in any of these deals. Rockies added a nice bullpen arm in Joe Beimel.

3:20: This Gonzalez-to-Dodgers thing has to be made up. How could Padres walk away from that with anything less than Kershaw? Yankees add Jerry Hairston, Jr.; should be a nice piece off the bench, and sadly, no schadenfreude about an Arroyo acquisition yet.

3:12: Bryan Price as third pitcher to Cleveland… college reliever moved back to starting; looks very good in A-ball, but it’s A-ball. Seems like another Knapp for Cleveland – high upside, no guarantees. Meanwhile, Gordon Edes says Adam LaRoche to Braves; I’m hoping this means bullpen help for Red Sox.

2:56: MLB Network reports that Dodgers may have a chance at Adrian Gonzalez. If that happens and if they don’t get completely taken, I’ll be crushed that the Sox didn’t make that deal instead of getting Martinez.

2:40: Reportedly Justin Masterson on top of Hagadone. Still looking like a nice deal for Red Sox, as Masterson’s problems vs. left-handers limit his value quite a bit and Hagadone is still a ways off. Remains to be seen what else is involved or if Boston will target a new long man.

2:35 PM: Matthew Pouliot throws out the name of Nick Hagadone; Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard reportedly not involved. If this is true, sounds hard for Boston to screw it up.

2:02 PM: Still waiting on confirmation and price of Victor. Also increasingly terrified of how much time the Yankees have to counter-punch here.

1:57 PM: Sounds like Red Sox finally about to pull trigger on Victor Martinez. After all the Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay talks, this is a bit anticlimactic, I’m sad to say. Dare I dream this isn’t all?

Yes, I dare. I’m an idiot.

1:30 PM: It comes to my attention that Orlando Cabrera’s glove isn’t even good anymore. Starting to seem that Beane didn’t get something for nothing; he got something for less than nothing.

1:19 PM: Los Angeles Dodgers traded P Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee Brewers for C Vinny Rottino. Nothing but a depth move here; Vargas has been through Milwaukee once before and they know he’s not a great bet to give much. Rottino’s 29 and has seen his bat decline since 2006 and 2007.

1:14 PM: “According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A’s for 21-year-old shorstop Tyler Ladendorf.” Unless Ladendorf stays at shortstop, don’t see him making the bigs; Cot’s Contracts informs me that the A’s agreed not to offer arbitration if Cabrera is a Type A free agent, so draft picks wouldn’t be an issue; looks like trying to get something instead of nothing, plus save a million bucks or so.

1:01 PM: Rumblings of SS Orlando Cabrera being traded from Oakland A’s to Minnesota Twins. Nice glove, but with his bat (and at his age), I’m just glad the Red Sox are apparently staying out of this.

11:40 AM: Seattle Mariners traded SP Jarrod Washburn to Detroit Tigers for SPs Lucas French and Mauricio Robles.

First reaction: “CRAP! The Yankees didn’t get Washburn!” I was fairly confident he’d be eaten alive in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, and believe his low-strikeout, flyball tendencies were in one of the best ballparks for a pitcher of such abilities.

Even so, this is a bit disappointing for Seattle; French might be able to serve as a back-end starter right now, but Robles’ high strikeouts in the low minors are accompanied by some iffy control. With a pretty solid 23-year-old as well as a higher-upside young guy, Seattle didn’t walk away empty-handed, but I again expected there was more of a market for this pitcher and one could have found a bit better of a prospect package.

Now it’s time to hope the Yankees “address” their “problems” with Bronson Arroyo.

Yesterday, Pittsburgh Pirates traded RP John Grabow and SP Tom Gorzelanny to Chicago Cubs for Ps Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and 2B Josh Harrison.

I don’t have much to say here; Grabow’s 30 and has major walk problems, while Gorzelanny’s low strikeouts would need to be accompanied by vastly superior control for him to have any sort of upside. The latter pitcher went completely off the rails in 2008, but like Ian Snell, has looked good at AAA and could improve. Still, Hart and Ascanio are less of question marks – they could probably help from the bullpen right now – and Harrison, while old for his league, was a college draft pick just last year and could have a nice bat if he can stick at second base. Solid pickup by the Pirates for a free agent to be and a guy about to get more expensive.

…and those twins!

February 10, 2009 at 12:01 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
Tags: ,

24. Minnesota Twins (33.38% schedule-weighted support)
Last Ranking: 17
Added: Ps Sean Henn and Jason Jones
Lost: SS Adam Everett; RPs Dennys Reyes and Eddie Guardado; DH Randy Ruiz
Strengths: The team’s success comes down to four factors: cheap pitching, Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau, and Joe Mauer.  SPs Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn were all key parts of a surprising 88-win, play-in-causing season in 2008, and none made much more than the minimum.  Joining that group for hopefully more than a third of a season will be 25-year-old Francisco Liriano, who, when healthy and keeping his walks down, can be one of the best pitchers in the game.

The bullpen is essentially Nathan and whatever the Twins can piece together out of spare starters and cheap free agents in spring training (Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and lefty Craig Breslow probably have spots sewn up, but the rest seems quite open); with Pat Neshek set to miss 2009 due to Tommy John surgery, innings 6-8 could be a problem for the Twins.

While 1B Morneau has been overrated thanks to RBI totals, he is, at 27 and under contract through 2013, a considerable asset.  But his value pales in comparison to that of Mauer, who, despite being the best catcher in baseball, being two years younger than Morneau, and having more service time than Morneau, will be paid less than the Canadian until he reaches free agency.  Assuming he remains healthy, Mauer should be a legitimate MVP contender for years to come.
Weaknesses: A fact that I avoided in lauding the Twins’ rotation: Baker and Slowey (along with probable #5 starter Boof Bonser) are fly-ball pitchers whose home run rates will likely keep them from turning into credible #1 starters.  Blackburn, on the other hand, seems to keep the ball on the ground, but his lack of strikeouts could be a problem if his control slips even a slight amount.  If Liriano comes back resembling his 2006 self, it’s likely that the Twins can deal with any one of these problems; if he struggles or is injured again, the rotation suddenly becomes a weak point.

The 2008 Twins were also beneficiaries of some incredible situational luck.  While traditionalists will argue in favor of “clutch hitting,” it seems highly unlikely that the team can repeat its performance and create as many runs as they did.  Being a big fan of irony and sacrilege, I shall ESPN’s team splits to demonstrate: the Twins got on base at a .340 rate last year.  With runners in scoring position, that number reached .380; that 40-point increase was the largest in the AL.  Batting average went from .279 to .305, again the biggest difference in the AL.  Lest traditionalists make the argument that good teams simply step it up when they need to, Jeter’s Yankees had the second-smallest OBP increase, the pennant-winning Rays third-”worst”; both teams actually got worse in batting average in these situations.  And if this has anything to do with a repeatable skill, why were the Twins in the middle of the league in “OBP clutchness” in 2007?  It’s easy to romanticize the notion of situational hitting, but I’m not here to convert the believers; my point is simply that science and history are not on the Twins’ side in repeating their RISP feats.
My Stake: The Twins are a far cry from the Giants; the strength of my antipathy drops considerably at this point in the list.  But there are still more reasons to dislike Minnesota than to like them.  The frustration of the aforementioned situational hitting/luck is among them, but there are two more issues to consider.

The first: CF Carlos Gomez.  Thus far the most significant piece acquired in the Johan Santana trade, pending the promotion of SP Kevin “Mulva/Dolores” Mulvey, Gomez’s defense is truly spectacular.  Rather than being merely a highlight-reel star, his value is empirically demonstrated in various defensive metrics.  Along with Mauer, he helps boost an otherwise average team in the field.  But despite 30 bunt hits and a .330 average on balls in play, Gomez managed an anemic .296 on-base percentage.  Making the most of limited talent is fun when it happens on a team for which one roots, but when it happens for anyone else… basically, Carlos Gomez is ruining baseball.

The final strike against the Twins comes from a trade last winter.  The Twins traded then-underrated-defensive-asset SS Jason Bartlett and SP Matt Garza to the Rays for LF Delmon Young and IF Brendan Harris.  The rest was annoying history – Bartlett had a worse year than 2007 but placed 18th in MVP voting because of his… well, I’m still not really sure; Garza held the Red Sox to 2 runs in 13 playoff innings.
‘09 Predictions: Because of the various question marks discussed, I’m disinclined to give this team too much credit.  But because of the probability of a healthy Liriano, and the numerous options at the back of the rotation, I’ve placed them above .500 at 84 wins, which should keep them in the AL Central race well into September.

‘08 rooting hierarchy iii: everybody knows this is nowhere

March 26, 2008 at 10:36 pm | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | 2 Comments
Tags: , , , ,

I had expected to be too apathetic to write much about the 25-10 teams, and accordingly had more teams per post in this middle range.  I’m starting to think that was a poor decision; while I have stronger feelings about teams at the extreme ends of the list, I feel still the need to write solid summaries of why the irrelevant, uninteresting teams ranked where they did.  With so little pre-existing loyalty (or, more bluntly, interest), this group is prone to shifting a lot even with few transactions.

23. Kansas City Royals 24.14% unweighted; 23.75% weighted (25/22.22/25).
Last year: #16. 69-93, 5th in AL Central.
In 2008: For a while, it looked like the Royals were going to pull themselves out of a cycle of hopelessness and impotence. Such optimism should have been destroyed when Gil Meche was signed to a five-year deal last winter. Yet somehow, there was hope that Dayton Moore’s new leadership would turn the club around.

I give up. The Royals’ best move this winter was giving a responsible contract to Brett Tomko, who should be the their #4 starter. The rest of the offseason was spent overpaying mediocre relievers, both Japanese and American, and finally giving way too much money to Jose Guillen, a low-upside veteran whose contract and defense should negate any midseason trade value. Why do they even get to this spot on my hierarchy, then? The lack of expectations lets me go easy on them, and unlike in larger markets, there’s no risk of a blundering GM gaining the illusion of prescience when the team wins despite, not because of, his work.
Prediction: 69-93; 5th in AL Central

22. Milwaukee Brewers 29.31% unweighted; 33.64% weighted (40/25/28.57).
Last year: #9. 83-79, 2nd in NL Central.
In 2008: Maybe this is harsh; the Brewers did have the wisdom to sign Mike Cameron this winter, and young players like Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun are a testament to a capable player development system. Yet it almost feels like GM Doug Melvin is blindly flailing and simply getting lucky when things go right; his free agency signings include overpaying a post-prime Jeff Suppan, and I find a problem in simply being willing to give major league contracts to players like Gabe Kapler, Craig Counsell, and most appallingly Jason Kendall, who will receive over four million dollars in 2008. Milwaukee was so desperate to be rid of Johnny Estrada – an all around better catcher than Kendall – that they took on the salary of reliever Guillermo Mota. This mistake was further compounded Tuesday, when the club released Claudio Vargas, a better pitcher than Mota with a similar salary. In short, the team makes too many bizarre blunders to be redeemed by its young talent; they are no longer lovably futile, but instead competitive despite severe missteps.
Prediction: 86-76; 2nd in NL Central

21. Philadelphia Phillies 29.31% unweighted; 21.55% weighted (0/40.91/28.57).
Last year: #15. 89-73, 1st in NL East, lost NLDS.
In 2008: What can one really say about the Phillies? It’s easy to love their high-powered trio of infielders (Howard, Utley, and Rollins), and the sabermetric community has always wanted Pat Burrell to receive recognition for his consistent offensive production, even as infuriating and frustrating as his strikeouts and defense can be. But on the other side of the ball, the team is beyond lost; the majority of the pitching stuff is comprised of ridiculously old veterans, ridiculously bad veterans, and non-prospects. Instead of finding underpaid arms with good upsides, GM Pat Gillick threw money at unremarkable lefty J.C. Romero, traded Geoff Geary for Brad Lidge, and spent the rest of the winter shoring up the 4th-6th outfield spots.
Prediction: 82-80; 3rd in NL East

20. Minnesota Twins 34.48% unweighted; 36.13% weighted (50/22.22/37.5).
Last year: #12. 79-83, 3rd in AL Central.
In 2008: The Twins have been quietly competent in recent years, but in the first winter under a new GM, Minnesota displayed a damning lack of ambition. When they wanted touted-but-troubled Tampa Bay prospect Delmon Young, they were forced to surrender both 25-year-old starter Matt Garza and defense-oriented shortstop Jason Bartlett. When they finally moved ace Johan Santana, it was not for a major-league ready, unlikely-to-miss young player like the Yankees’ Philip Hughes or the Red Sox’ Jacoby Ellsbury, but for a group of riskier, less established prospects from the Mets. The team is too far from contending for their spare parts (trading for Craig Monroe?  Really?) to matter, so their poor taste in free agents is almost irrelevant. Like other teams in this group, the Twins are too unremarkable for me to have any sense of loyalty based on the accomplishments of a departed GM.
Prediction: 76-86; 3rd in AL Central

19. Baltimore Orioles 37.93% unweighted; 35.13% weighted (25/44.44/37.5).
Last year: #25. 69-93, 4th in AL East.
In 2008: It’s easy to see what’s wrong with the Orioles, and no one can blame fans for staying away from a club whose ownership is so thoroughly unlikable. Yet when compared with some other teams’ offseasons, Baltimore’s recent history is fairly unobjectionable. Joining Nick Markakis (24, free agent in 2012) in the outfield are trade acquisitions Luke Scott (29, ‘13) and Adam Jones (22, ‘13). In the same deal that brought Jones – himself a fine bounty for starter Erik Bedard, given contract situations – the O’s added reliever George Sherrill, who, along with 2B Brian Roberts, should be a valuable trading chip during the season (If Baltimore were closer to contending, I would advocate keeping Sherrill – four seasons from free agency – but at age 30, he’s unlikely to be an asset by the time the Orioles will be concerned with “winning now.”). If- and with Baltimore’s history, any and all optimism must be very guarded – GM Andy MacPhail can keep being smarter than his predecessors, the Orioles may cease to be synonymous with failure.
Prediction: 70-92; 5th in AL East

another pleasant valley sunday

February 1, 2008 at 7:08 pm | In Baseball, Football | 4 Comments
Tags: , , , , , ,

I am totally palping the Super Bowl excitement in the valley. On two blocks of Mill Avenue, there are no fewer than three temporary retail outlets. I have seen my share of limos and cars too shiny to belong to people with mere five-figure incomes. And where there are hardcore Patriots fans, there are Red Sox fans, so I’m feeling quite at home.

Not-Really-A-Prediction-Because-It-Is-Indefensible-By-Logic Prediction: The other night, I dreamed that New England lost 19-17 on a failed field goal as the clock wound down. I guess that it’s not that much crazier than if I took some time, thought about the game, and came up with a pair of numbers – and if it actually happens, I can claim to have Super powers.
Liking-People-For-Specious-Reasons Person of the Week: Anyone who knows me (or who regularly reads this blog) knows that while I don’t arbitrarily like people or root for teams, I do tend to latch onto relatively minor or even meaningless positives to break me out of ambivalence. I was already a fan of Bill Belichick’s fashion sense (had I the money, I’d cut sleeves off my sweatshirts and look homeless, too!) and mindset (the espionage scandal is the ultimate demonstration of his strategic obsessiveness), but I was really sold when I found out that his music tastes are pretty nice, too: Belichick was his usual gruff, monotone self — except when he talked glowingly about Brady, Bruschi, the Giants and the scheduled halftime performer, Tom Petty. “I think it’s great,” he said of Petty, with a half-smile. “I wish I could stand out there and listen to it, but I’ll have some of his CDs playing in my office this week. That’ll put me in the mood: “Free Fallin’.” Not only does he talk about being a Petty fan, but he cites one of my very favorite songs (I guess I need to make that list…)? That seems reason enough to blog about my growing fondness for him.
Johanalysis: By popular demand, I feel I must give some quick thoughts about the New York Mets’ acquisition of Johan Santana. Barring unforeseeable problems with Santana, the Mets come out winners here, adding one of the best pitchers in baseball at a reasonable extension and little cost in players. The most touted prospect acquired by the Minnesota Twins, speedy outfielder Carlos Gomez, is hyped more for his youth and potential than his current ability, but did put up a nice OBP at AAA in 2007. Pitcher Deolis Guerra is similarly an upside kind of guy, but has less demonstrated ability, having never pitched above A-ball. Kevin “Dolores” Mulvey is the most major-league ready of the players, but with a low strikeout rate, seems unlikely to end up more than a #4 starter. Philip Humber, once highly regarded, is now 25 and coming off an unremarkable first year at AAA; he has no immediate value and limited potential. The Twins ignored the certain quality of other reported offers and instead took a huge gamble on the upsides of Gomez and Guerra.

Coming soon: This Week Recent Weeks In Blog Traffic: Pre-Super Tuesday Edition!

2007 rooting hierarchy iv: so satisfied i’m on my way

March 29, 2007 at 11:54 am | In Baseball, Rooting Hierarchies | Leave a Comment
Tags: , , , , , ,

I am absolutely loving this new blogging method – I think I’m going to have to start doing more stuff in week-long series instead of pithy little entries. That’s right – Democratic Primary Candidate Countdown Week, The Physicality Scouting One-Year Blogfest, and someday, Music Evaluative Index Marathon. It almost makes me want to have more interests for giant blog series. I suppose I could also do week-long tributes to certain TV shows. Send more series ideas to:
Comments Section
c/o This Blog
Right Here, LJ
If we use your idea on the series of tubes, you’ll win a brief, passing mention! Now, on with the countdown.

15. Philadelphia Phillies The Phils took a significant fall from 2006. First and foremost, I think, is my unwillingness to forgive them for giving the Yankees OF Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle. Is it fair to put the blame on Philly for the Yanks murdering the Red Sox in that five-game sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s nonetheless there. And one when looks at Philly’s offseason moves – signing SP Adam Eaton and 3B Wes Helms to likely useless contracts – it doesn’t help matters. On the other hand, they did help with the White Sox’s inexplicable mission to get rid of SP Freddy Garcia, so here they are in the upper half.
14. Texas Rangers I don’t feel great about HR-prone SP Brandon McCarthy going to a HR-prone ballpark, but he was better than the minor leaguers sent to Chicago. That aside, GM Jon Daniels has yet to really make a name for himself. There’s still hope that a young guy (he’s not even 30) will be more statistically progressive than the average GM, but hope and ageism don’t justify a higher spot than this
13. New York Mets There was a time when the Mets were my favorite non-local club thanks in large part to my hatred of the Braves (and the awesomeness of Edgardo Alfonzo). That time has passed, but there’s still a lot to like about the Mets. Omar Minaya has performed well enough that maybe my defense of his Expos tenure was justified – give the man the resources to sign big names, and he’ll pick the right ones. Sure, there are also horribly overrated players like RF Shawn Green and C Paul Lo Duca, but the Mets balance those out with the bargain of 2B Jose Valentin. The one systemic weakness I see is Minaya’s evaluation of relief pitching, but that’s not reason to bump them any further down.
12. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has a way of getting greatness for nothing – most notably Rule 5 draftee SP Johan Santana and the trade of C AJ Pierzynski for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano. For these two transactions alone, he deserves a lot of credit. Of course, those are balanced by such signings as 2006’s 3B Tony Batista, who had no business on a major-league club. Still, it’s hard to argue with the Twins’ supply of quality young players. A sentimental factor here: C Joe Mauer’s presence on my fantasy team makes me like him just a bit more than his awesomeness merits.
11. Washington Nationals Okay, this ranking is pretty much insane. GM Jim Bowden is a “tools”-obsessed guy who has benefited largely from ripping off inferior GMs. So my rooting for the Nats really comes down to one thing: manager Manny Acta is willing to use evidence to guide his decisions. This shouldn’t be a distinguishing factor, but a manager coming out and basically citing run expectancies and properly devaluing the stolen base is almost unprecedented. Of course, the team has miserable starting pitching and isn’t going to win 80 games, but I still deign Acta worthy of my praise.
10. St. Louis Cardinals The defending world champions made some bad decisions this winter – bringing back Mark Mulder? Seriously? – but GM Walt Jocketty also moved to lock up SP Chris Carpenter through 2012, which means he’ll join 1B Albert Pujols as the core of the team for years to come. That alone gives the club probably 60 wins to build on, so as long as they keep finding undervalued talent like Adam Kennedy to fill out the roster and minimize the Mulder-type signings, the Cards should continue to be a .500 club even if they don’t make great moves.

Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.